iri fewsnet presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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GHACOF24Food Security Outlook
Scenarios (2009/10)
Gideon Galu, Andrew Odero & Network Partners
[email protected] & [email protected]
http://www.fews.net
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Food Security Outlook ForumFood Security Outlook Forum
(FSOF):(FSOF):
1. To serve as a dynamic decision support tool in
contingency and response planning RISK
MANAGEMENT
2. Integrate Climatic and Non-Climatic information
into thefood security analysisprocess.
3. Create a Regional Forum for sharing Food Security
issues and concerns (pre- and post-season)
amongtheearlywarning and response agenciesin
theregion.
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When do weneed Contingency Plans?When do weneed Contingency Plans?
1. Whenthereisuncertainty and prediction errors;
2. Whenthere aremajor data gaps and errors;
3. High probability and/or high impact hazards
4. Wherethereisno access;
5. Bef oretheevent, not during or after;
6. Whenresponse capacity is uncertain.
In Kenya, we make contingency plans for these high-
probability - high-impact hazards: Drought, flooding, refugee
influxes, diseases and local natural resource conflicts(WFP-Kenya/2003)
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FSOF Process:FSOF Process:
1. Accurately understanding thecurrent Food SecuritySituation (throughfield assessments) in ALL countries
withintheregion and theunderlying CAUSES.
2. ContextualunderstandingtheClimate Forecasts andtheir potential implications to Food Security.
3. Reviewing underlying NON-CLIMATIC factors (civil war,
policies, markets/trade, diseases) and their projected
trends.
4. DevelopingFood Security Outlook Scenarios (most-
likely and worst-casescenarios) based on (2) and (3)
above and theirimpact onlivelihoods.
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Definingthe Problem:
Translating Seasonal Climate Forecasts
to Develop Food Security Scenarios:
Croplosses
Forage and browse availabilityLivestock productionlosses
Food availability and access (prices)
Wateravailability
Changesinlevels ofconflict
Flood
Drought
Destruction ofproperty and assetsImpacts oninfrastructure
Impacts onmarkets
Diseaseincidence
Labormarkets
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Food Security Situation : Over 17M Food
Insecure
Transitory Causes :(Mainly Climatic)
1. 4-5 prolonged droughtseasons
2.Droughtextended into highly
populated areas
2. Escalatingfood prices & poor
terms oftrade
3. Resource-based conflicts
4.Trans-boundaryDisease
outbreaks (PPR)
Underlying Causes:
(Mainly Non-climatic)
A.Chronicpoverty
B.Civilwar/insecurityC. IDP / Returnees
D. Poormarketingmechanisms
E. Environmental degradation
G.Constrained income
opportunities dueto Global
EconomicCrisis
Kenya
(3.8M+)
Ethiopia
(6.2M)
Somalia
3.8M
Tanzania
(1.2M)
S.Sudan
(1.3M)
Uganda
(1.15M)
Djibouti: 0.15M
Source (Sept. 2009):www.fews.net
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merg ng roug ren s n ense y
Populated.
1 Feb. 22 Aug. 2009 Population distributionproxies - 2007 (Landscan data)
Rainfall failure in parts of agric areas, which are also densely populated areas
(Rapid increase in food insecure population)
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Emerging Drought Trends(Drought-axis in the Great Rift Valley areas & surrounding)
2007 Landscan
Drought in the Great Rift Valley &
Surrounding areas
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u
ForecastSept. Dec. 2009
Source: ICPAC
1. Moderate Mild El-Nino event
2. Analog years (1982, 2002 &
2004)
3. Timely onset
4. Rains to intensify in November
extend into early 2010
5. Need to monitor closely the
developing situation, especially
the Indian & Atlantic Oceans
6. Normal-to-above Normal inshort-rains dependant & also
drought affected areas
7. Relatively high confidence
levels on the Sept.-Dec. rainfall
season due to the El-Ninosi nal..
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Seasonal Rainfall
Forecasting and
Interpretation (FIT)
Translatingprob.
into rainfall anomalies
Most-likelyscenario
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2009 Forecast Interpretation:
(Beneficial rains with Flood risks.)
> 500mm>300mm
Areas with increased
probabilities of attaining
the given thresholds
Maize/Sorghumcrop Floods(?)
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Recent past El-Nino Impacts & Analogue Year(s)Moderate (2006) to Mild (2002) El-Nino
Extreme (1997/98) Moderate (2006/7) Mild (2002/3)
Enhanced rainfallRainfall Deficits
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2009 Forecast Implications:
Timely Onset rains spilling into Early 2010
2002/3 2006/7
1. Timely onset for most of the short-rains dependant areas
2. Some delays over Rift Valley areas and parts of eastern sector
3. Extended length of the crop growing season (early 2010)
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2002/3 2006/7
2009 Forecast Implications:
1. Favorable prospects for agric
production
2. Rains expected to extend into early
2010..2004/5
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Adverse El-Nino Impacts on Floods Risk(Areas to watch for potential flood risks)
2006/7 Floods
1. Recharge of major Dams..
2. Transportation is likely to be affected
in flood prone areas.. could also
constrain relief supplies
3. Environmental degradation a threat
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Adverse El-Nino Impacts on Floods, RVF &
Malaria(RVF and Malaria Risks)
RVF threat exists but with relatively less impact than in 2006/7 El-Nino event
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Rain-fed Agriculture Food SecurityFood Security = fn (Availability, Accessibility,
Utilization)Opportunities Challenges/Risks
(How to?)
1. Rainfall Average
2. Extended Length
of Growing Period
1. Maximize Agric
prod
2. Reducepost-
harvestlosses
3. Ensureprice
stability
4. Flooding &
Diseases (RVR)
As usual, they will be drought after the El-Nino event
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2009/10 Projected Food Security Scenarios
(TBD)Current: Jul. Sept. 2009
Mid - term: Sept. - Dec. 2009(?)
COF24 Implications :
(Mainly Climatic)
1. Gradualrecovery ofFood
Securitystatusinmarginal
agric & pastoral areas.
2. Recharge ofwater
resources & Hydro-power
3. ImprovingTerms ofTrade
in Pastoral Areas..
4. Flood risk
5.Trans-boundaryDisease
outbreaks (RVF) & Malaria
6. Reduced resource-based
conflicts
Underlying Causes:
(Mainly Non-climatic)
A. Environmental
degradation
B.Chronicpoverty
C.Civilwar/insecurity
D. IDP / Returnees
E. Globalrecession
Long - term: Jan. - March. 2010
Gradual improvement?,
Depending on Govt. &
partners interventions
response to the forecast
rains..
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Current FS Situation: Feb. 2010
Food Security Conditions, Feb 2010Food Security Conditions, Oct 2009
Modest improvement in food security since 2009.
Attributed largely to the El Nino rains especially in
the pastoral areas and marginal agricultural areas
in the eastern sector
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http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/
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http://www.fews.net
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Thanks