4 Parameters

Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise?

ANDREW SCOBELL

© 2009 Andrew Scobell

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Mixed Messages

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A Gap in Attitudes and Perspectives?

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-China’s Use of Military Force

China’s Search for Security

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A Gap in Civilian Control?

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Is there a worrisome laxity in civilian control of China’s military? Are there serious

gaps in China’s civil-military relations?

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Four Explanations

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What one hears and sees is a carefully scripted and well-acted drama

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The differences between soldiers and statesmen are real and unscripted

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Soldiers are talking and acting as rogues

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Soldiers are talking and acting as saboteurs

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A Chinese Calculus of Deterrence

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“Caring More About LA than Taipei”

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“Responding with Nukes”

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There also appears to be a gap in China’s civilian control of the military.

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The

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Lessons: Deterrence and Asymmetry

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But even if gaps exist between soldiers and civilians in China, does it matter?

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Roguish, but Not a Rogue

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2001 Hainan Island Incident

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2006 USS Kitty Hawk Incident

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Kitty Hawk

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January 2007 Antisatellite Test

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Conclusion

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The evidence suggests that the hawkish words of PLA generals are part of a deliberate

and calculated Chinese deterrence effort directed at the United States.

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At least there

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NOTESXinhua -

-International Security

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Summer 2009 21

The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000

Soldiers and Civilians: The Civil-Mili-tary Gap and American National Security

The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military RelationsThe Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait

Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War CrisesChoosing Your Battles: Ameri-

can Civil-Military Relations and the Use of ForceChina’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March -

Foreign Affairs-

Armed Forces & SocietyShaping China’s Security Environment: The

Role of the People’s Liberation Army

Journal of Contemporary China -Political Science Quarterly

China Leadership Monitor

Foreign Affairs

Proliferation Brief

The New York Times

The New York Times

New York Times.com

Asian Wall Street Journal

China Leadership MonitorThe Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina

Imagined Enemies: China Prepares for Uncertain War

A War Like No Other: The Truth about China’s Challenge to America

Renmin Ribao

China’s Use of Military Force

Managing Sino-American Crises: Case Studies and Analysis

Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strate-gies and Their Implications for the United States

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Ta Kung Pao

The Los Angeles Times

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Chinese National Security Decisionmaking under Stress

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International Security

The Washington Times

Survival

The New York Times

Associated Press

China Security

The Science of Military Strategy

International Security-

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-Preventive Defense: A New Security Strat-

egy for America