is there a limit for photovoltaic capacity hugo birkelund

A presentation from

Is there a limit to Growth for SPV in Germany?

Subtitle: Something has to give

Hugo BirkelundHead of Sales and Development [email protected]+47 9187 7970

This video is a part of a the analysis service from MKonline 1

1. What is MKonline.com2. SPV for “dummies”3. SPV capacity growth, history and forecast 4. SPV as weather driven factor5. Interaction with other fundamentals6. “Something has to give”

About the presentation:


• Infrastructure for Markedskraft’s analysis products

• One-Stop-Shop for information and competence on power and energy related topics.

What is MKonline.com 1/2


www.MKonline.com 2/2



Our products in detailGo to MKonline.com

Click onOur Products

Photovoltaic, concept

Solar energyModel steps

A) Insolation, top of atmosphereadjusted for distance to sun.Mean value is 1.366 KW / sq.m

B) Atmospheric attenuation-Sun height, -Linke turbidity,* -Station elevation (m.a.s.l.) -Optical air mass

Avg. in Germany is 1 KW/sq.m*Linke turbidity, effect of aerosols reducing the transmission of direct solar radiation

D) On Ground:1) Technology,

-What type, Where, and When, 2) Operating temperature, Weather3) Converting DC – AC,

C) Atmosphere and GroundInsolation captured by solar cell

-Beam/direct radiation, Weather-Diffuse radiation -Reflected

More on Insolation on ground and technology

Angle between surface of solar module and sun. Orientation and tilt of solar module depends on tracking system

Fixed1-axis 2-axis. Optimal position

taking into account shadowing

Radiation on a horizontal surface and cloud cover

Insolation captured by solar cell• Beam/direct radiation,• Diffuse radiation,• Reflected radiation, from earth

Schematic profiles Total Profile, 24hour

Rule of thumbs: 1/2

What affects SPV output?Input ranges from: 1-Sun height/angle and Earth’s distance to sun at any given time2-Local atmospheric conditions, density/pollution, climate, at any given time, 3-Capacity, “Technology in time and space”; Simpler put

• how much of each technology type,• when is it installed, (2005 – 2020), and • where is it installed (spatial distribution)

4-Weather, calculating the time and spatial distribution of • beam radiation and • diffuse radiation• Temp and wind (cooling of the panels)

5-Keep track of depreciation, by year and technology

It proved harder to put up the model than initial anticipated. Most important the highly spatial distribution of the units, different technologies employed, and rapid expansion of capacity moving at different development phase.

Rule of thumbs 2/2Profile over a year (Stuttgart, Germany)

Horisontal surface,Min Dec 22.th Max June, 23.de.

Optimal surface -2D adjustable Max April/May Min DecStart lower than if all capacity was optimal

Max in April/MayDecreases as

Sun height rises and Atmospheric conditions deteriorate

Increases as Sun height decreases, Result: a two toped curve

Technology mix, - Roof top Fixed-1 D adjusting-2 D adjusting

Curve tilted upward, due to new installed capNet result has to be simulated

• Extreme growth, powered by feed-in tariffs of the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG)

SPV capacity expansion


• Putting it together

Capacity expansion


Question 1Why historic high growth?

Question 2Why do we expect it to continue?

Growth because SPV units have been “in the money”

05

101520253035404550

Jan

09A

pr 0

9Ju

l 09

Okt

09

Jan

10A

pr 1

0Ju

l 10

Okt

10

Jan

11A

pr 1

1Ju

l 11

Okt

11

Jan

12A

pr 1

2Ju

l 12

Cos

ts/F

eed-

in in

€C

t./kW

hHistoric Average generation costs and feed-in

tariffs (rooftop plants smaller than 100kW)generationcosts

feed-in 0kW -30kW

feed-in 30kW -100kW

feed-in 10kW -40kW EEGamendment

Source: Photovoltaic Guide 2012

Germany tries to slow down massive SPV capacityextension by establishing new feed-in tariffs

• Main aspects of EEG Amendment from June 2012 for SPV

< 10 kWp < 40 kWp < 1000 kWp < 10 MWp

Feed-in 01.04.2012 [Ct/kWh) 19.50 18.50 16.50 13.50

0,50%0%

-0,50%-0,75%-1%

-1,40%-1,80%

-2,20%-2,50%

-2,80%

-3,00% -2,00% -1,00% 0,00% 1,00%

< 10001000 - 15001500 - 20002000 - 25002500 - 35003500 - 45004500 - 55005500 - 65006500 - 7500

> 7500

Monthly change of feed-in tariffs

Ann

ual c

apac

ity in

crea

se [i

n M

W]− Support cap of 52 GW installed

capacity− Adjustment of monthly feed-in

digression every three month depending on the previous 12 month capacity increase

− Feed-in tariff of 90% of the produced electricity for all rooftop plants (10kW - 1,000 kW) built after 01.04.2012 beginning at 01.01.2014.

Government target corridor

Source: EEG 2012

Germany tries to slow down massive SPV capacityextension by establishing new feed-in tariffs

• Main aspects of EEG Amendment from June 2012 for SPV

< 10 kWp < 40 kWp < 1000 kWp < 10 MWp

Feed-in 01.04.2012 [Ct/kWh) 19.50 18.50 16.50 13.50

− Support cap of 52 GW installed capacity

− Adjustment of monthly feed-in digression every three month depending on the previous 12 month capacity increase

− Feed-in tariff of 90% of the produced electricity for all rooftop plants (10kW - 1,000 kW) built after 01.04.2012 beginning at 01.01.2014.

Government target corridor

Source: EEG 2012

We believe it will not slow down investment as EPIA probably underestimated cost degression

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500Ja

n 09

Jul 0

9Ja

n 10

Jul 1

0Ja

n 11

Jul 1

1Ja

n 12

Jul 1

2Ja

n 13

Jul 1

3Ja

n 14

Jul 1

4Ja

n 15

Jul 1

5Ja

n 16

Jul 1

6Ja

n 17

Jul 1

7Ja

n 18

Jul 1

8Ja

n 19

Jul 1

9Ja

n 20

Jul 2

0

Syst

em p

rice

in €

/kW

Average PV-system price decrease Germany (rooftop plants smaller than 100kW)

1800€/kW (3kW rooftop)

EPIA 2011 (forecast to 2020)

1500€/kW (100kW rooftop)

-60.8% overall decrease-2.1% per month (avg)

1610 €/kW (Sept. 2012)

Source: Photovoltaic Guide 2012, EPIA 2011

Study published in 2011

Assumptions

Calculation of future generation costs based on the “Levelized Costs of electricity“ approach

ValuesLoad hours 900h

ROE 5%

Capital commitment period 20 years

Maintenance/ Operation/ Insurance costs 1% of initial investment per year

Initial Investment Cost(SPV-System price)

Developing of two scenarios based on thelearning factor approach (next slide)

Source: Own assumptions

SPV System price decrease – Scenario overview

Learning factorCum. Market growth per year

Modules 20% 30%

Inverter < 40kW 20% 30%

Inverter > 40kW 20% 30%

Installation/BoP 10% 30%

Learning factorCum. Market growth per year

Modules 15% 23%

Inverter < 40kW 20% 23%

Inverter > 40kW 10% 23%

Installation/BoP 10% 23%

Scen

ario

Low

C

ost

Scen

ario

Hig

h C

ost

Learning Factorpercentage rate costs decrease every time the cumulative sold volume has doubled

Example− 30% growth, 20% leraning

factorcumulative volume doublesevery 31.7 month20% cost decrease every31.7 month0.7% cost decrease per month

Source: EPIA 2011, NorSun 2012, NREL 2012, Kersten et al. 2011, IRENA 2012

Scenario Low Cost – Expected SPV system pricefor different plant sizes

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Jan

09S

ep 0

9M

ai 1

0Ja

n 11

Sep

11

Mai

12

Jan

13S

ep 1

3M

ai 1

4Ja

n 15

Sep

15

Mai

16

Jan

17S

ep 1

7M

ai 1

8Ja

n 19

Sep

19

Mai

20

Syst

em p

rice

in €

/kW

<10kW roof

<40kW roof

<1000kW roof

<10MW free space

HistoricDevelopment

943 €/kW928 €/kW732 €/kW590 €/kW

1610 €/kW (Sep 2012)1610 €/kW (Sep 2012)1240 €/kW (Sep 2012) 1027 €/kW (Sep 2012)

Scenario Low Cost – Expected SPV generation costsfor different plant sizes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Sep

12

Apr

13

Nov

13

Jun

14Ja

n 15

Aug

15

Mrz

16

Okt

16

Mai

17

Dez

17

Jul 1

8Fe

b 19

Sep

19

Apr

20

Nov

20

LCO

E in

€C

t./kW

h<10kW<40kW<1000kW<10MW

9.46 € Ct./kWh9.30 € Ct./kWh

7.35 € Ct./kWh

5.92 € Ct./kWh

Cost development, Some Scenarios


High Cost, 900h

Low Cost, 900h

.. 1050h

..1200h

900h and 25% Auto cons

1200h and 25% Auto cons

0%, 10%, 25% Auto Cons, 900h + Increased

price

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

0,120

0,140

0,160

0,180

Sep‐12 Jul‐13 May‐14 Mar‐15 Jan‐16 Nov‐16 Sep‐17 Jul‐18 May‐19 Mar‐20

Investing in SPV remains profitable until 2014 whenassuming basis feed-in degression of 1% per month. Example: 10kW – 40kW rooftop plant

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

0,120

0,140

0,160

0,180

0,200Sep 12

Mrz 13

Sep 13

Mrz 14

Sep 14

Mrz 15

Sep 15

Mrz 16

Sep 16

Mrz 17

Sep 17

Mrz 18

Sep 18

Mrz 19

Sep 19

Mrz 20

Sep 20

• Putting it together

Capacity Forecast Revisited


Adding 300/Month from 1.Jan 2016


• What does this means in terms of production?

SPV and output


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

MW

h/h,

Max

hou

r

Max value over a day. Normal and Clear sky

DE Clear Sky

DE Normal

• SPV does not shave of the peak.

Consumption and SPV Profile


• Large increase in volatility• Close to Zero residual (Con – SPV – Wind)

• Without Wind included…• Consumption for illustrative purposes almost same as 2012….

Comparing 2012 and 2016


Clear sky in 2020 neg residual loadwithout wind

2012 2016 comp to 20122020…..

• SPV Growth

MKonline tracks capacity: Combined effect of SPV and wind


• Wind power Growth

• Residual Load (Con – Wind SPV) Mid month Wednesdays*, 2012

30 Weather Years..2012 capacities


Combined volatility: A simple measurement


Simple measurement, Change from one day to next day• High probability for

large changes, • Intra day too…• Not symmetrical, e.g.

look at the tail on right side….

• Increased capacity, yields Same distribution much but longer tails…

• SPV will grow much faster than recently anticipated• Along with wind power• Increased weather driven fundamentals in adjoining markets too… • Increased volatility in the European Power Market

• Something has to give.Policy is build on leaving time for adaptation• More flexible capacity • Improved exchange and new interconnectors• Upgrade of transmission grid• New storage capacities & technologies• Promoting flexibility of other renewable plants• Smart metering & smart consumption profiles...No time for sufficient improvement within current scenario

Conclusions


You have watched a video from MkonlineWe hope you found it usefulTo see more videos please visit MKonliene.com/videos

Feedback is appreciated and may be mailed to the presenter or [email protected]


Worldwide PV installations are expected to growstrongly during the next years

7090

110137

169

208

110

151

203

266

343

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cum

ulat

ive

inst

alle

dPV

cap

acity

in G

W

EPIA Moderate Scenario(pessimistic marketbehaviour, no majorreinforcement or stronglimitation of supportschemes)

EPIA Policy-DrivenScenario (continuation orintroduction of adequatesupport schemes, strongpolitical will to supportPV)

Source: EPIA 2011

Household electricity price

Source: BNetzA 2011

33%

24%

19,90%

13,70%

6,50%2,70% 0,20%

Structure of German household final consumer electricity price 2011

Electricity and distribution

Taxes (Electricity Tax andVAD)Network charges

EEG apportionment

Concessions

Measurement and accounting

CHP apportionment

TO BE EDITD Capacity, Some numbersCapacity, recent developmentStart of year Germany France Italy

2010 9757 200 9132011 16401 808 2456

Growth 2011 8000 1200 So far 1600*

National Renewable Energy Action PlanGermany France Italy

By 2020 51753 4860 8000

*Italy: Announced tariff reductions. 4000 MWp granted the 2010 tariff if they are grid connected before end of June 2011

Installed in Germany. Jan – Aug 2010*MWp # Inst. MWp # Inst.

< 10 kWp 464 71 695 10% 41%10-100 kWp 2 601 96 452 53% 56%100– 1K kWp 1 104 4 735 23% 3%> 1 MWp 710 297 15% 0%Sum 4 879 173 179 100% 100%* Avg. 28 KWp

Probably see most small units

Germany: No farming areas to be used

France: Encourage smaller units E.g. compensate for rooftop mounting, in line with current roof

Low political will to sponsor private investors.

Mounted on:Germany France Spain

Buildings 92% 93% 5%Ground 8% 7% 95%

SPV and effect on Phelix 1

Run 30 Weather years through our Price modelUsed Normal Wind, Con, etc.Aim: Single out Cet par SPV effect


Run 30 Weather years through our Price modelCalc Price – Avg PriceCalc Median – Avg Price


Run 30 Weather years through our Price modelCalc Summer: Sun. 7.AugCalc Winter: Sun. 9.Jan

Summer 2011 Winter 2011


Run 30 Weather years through our Phelix Price modelEffect on expected Phelix, Peak Hours


Run 30 Weather years through our Phelix Price modelIndirect effects

Peak price down , Less base offered. Increased Off Peak.How Much?

Changed profile in thermal production Con –Wnd – SPV..Increased ramping costs Spikes on each shoulder?

Start, Find position of sunMust find exact position of

-sun height and azimuth, minute by minute, for each station

Sun height, inclination, at any hour:a + Sum ( b(i)* Sin(i*x) - c(i) * Cos(i*x) ) where x =2 * pi * (day of year)/365 is the declination of the sun, angle between sun and equator, range -23 deg to 23 deg, function of day of yearModel: Time granulation, 30 minutes

Cell Temperatures

Calculates working temp at each location, Preal = Pstd * (1 – α) ^ ( Tc(h) – 25º Celsius)

Where, alpha varies between 0,1% to 1%Tc(h) = Tc(h-1) + a* I(h) – b* ( Tc(h) - Ta(h) )Pstd is power output under standard cell temperature

Preal is power output with real cell temperatureTemperature coefficient α between 0.1% and 1% per deg. CelsiusTc(h) is average cell temperature in hour hTa(h) is average air temperature in hour hI(h) is insolation during hour ha and b are parameters

Photovoltaic cells varies in general inversely with cell temperature. Reduce output of a cell with as much as 15% compared to

output under standard test conditions (25 Cels)

Cell temp influenced by Sun intensity, air temperature and wind speed.

Scenario High Cost – Expected PV-system pricedecrease (€/kW) until 2020 for different plant sizes

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Jan

09S

ep 0

9M

ai 1

0Ja

n 11

Sep

11

Mai

12

Jan

13S

ep 1

3M

ai 1

4Ja

n 15

Sep

15

Mai

16

Jan

17S

ep 1

7M

ai 1

8Ja

n 19

Sep

19

Mai

20

Syst

em p

rice

in €

/kW

<10kW roof

<40kW roof

<1000kW roof

<10MW free space

HistoricDevelopment

1103 €/kW1095 €/kW895 €/kW733 €/kW

1610 €/kW (Sep 2012)1610 €/kW (Sep 2012)1240 €/kW (Sep 2012) 1027 €/kW (Sep 2012)

Scenario Low Cost – Expected PV generation costs fordifferent plant sizes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Sep

12

Apr

13

Nov

13

Jun

14Ja

n 15

Aug

15

Mrz

16

Okt

16

Mai

17

Dez

17

Jul 1

8Fe

b 19

Sep

19

Apr

20

Nov

20

LCO

E in

€C

t./kW

h<10kW<40kW<1000kW<10MW

9.46 € Ct./kWh9.30 € Ct./kWh

7.35 € Ct./kWh

5.92 € Ct./kWh

Scenario High Cost – Expected PV generation costs fordifferent plant sizes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Sep

12

Feb

13Ju

l 13

Dez

13

Mai

14

Okt

14

Mrz

15

Aug

15

Jan

16Ju

n 16

Nov

16

Apr

17

Sep

17

Feb

18Ju

l 18

Dez

18

Mai

19

Okt

19

Mrz

20

Aug

20

Syst

em p

rice

in €

Ct./

kW

<10kW<40kW<1000kW<10MW

11.06 € Ct./kWh

10.98 € Ct./kWh

8.92 € Ct./kWh

7.35 € Ct,/kWh

Prices for SPV moduleswww.sologico.com


Annual Yield of SPV systems in Germanywww.pv-ertraege.de


is there a limit for photovoltaic capacity hugo birkelund

Documents

analysis service

weatherdiffuse radiation

diffuse radiation temp

surface of solar module

spv capacity growth

optimal surface

optimal max

spv output