israel’s strategic options what would sherlock holmes have said dr. martin sherman
TRANSCRIPT
Israel’s Strategic OptionsIsrael’s Strategic Options
What Would Sherlock Holmes What Would Sherlock Holmes Have SaidHave Said
Dr. Martin Sherman
.… .…
when you have eliminated
when you have eliminated
the impossible, whatever
the impossible, whatever
remains, however improbable,
remains, however improbable,
must be the truth
must be the truth
""
Sherlock Holmes in
Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of Four
The Sign of Four
Ha’aretz (30-7-76), by former Meretz Minister of Education, Prof. Amnon Rubinstein
Not since the time of Dr. Goebbels [Head of the Nazi Propaganda Machine] has there ever been a case in which continual repetition of a lie has born such great fruits....
Of all the Palestinian lies there is no lie greater or more crushing than that which calls for the establishment of a separate Palestinian state in the West Bank...
.
‘Palestinian Lies’
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 232.
In time of war, the frontiers of the Palestinian state will constitute an excellent staging point for mobile forces to mount attacks on infrastructure installations vital for Israel’s existence, to impede the freedom of action of the Israeli air-force in the skies over Israel, and to cause bloodshed among the population... in areas adjacent to the frontier-line.
Israel will have problems in preserving day-to-day security, which may drive the country into war, or undermine the morale of its citizens.
It will not be short of weapons or other [military] equipment, and in a short space of time, an infrastructure for waging war will be set up in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
The establishment of such [a Palestinian] state means the inflow of combat ready Palestinian forces (more than 25,000 men under arms) into Judea and Samaria; this force, together with the local youth, will double itself in a short time.
And if the Palestinian state would be unarmed, how would it block terrorist acts perpetrated by extremists, fundamentalists or irredentists?
Shimon Peres The New Middle East, New York: H. Holt, 1993, p. 169.
Even if the Palestinians agree that their state have no army or weapons, who can guarantee that a Palestinian army would not be mustered later to encamp at the gates of Jerusalem and the approaches to the lowlands?
In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial expanse has increased…Without a border which affords expanse has increased…Without a border which affords security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.
Shimon Peres, Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Tomorrow is NowNow, pp. 235,254,255, pp. 235,254,255
It is of course doubtful whether territorial expanse can provide absolute deterrence. However, the lack of minimal territorial expanse places a country in a position of an absolute lack of deterrence. This in itself constitutes almost compulsive temptation to attack Israel from all directions …
In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…
If a Palestinian state is established, it will be armed to the teeth. Within it there will be bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who will be equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched rockets, which will endanger not only random passers-by, but also every airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies of Israel and every vehicle traveling along the major traffic routes in the coastal plain.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 255.
This is the fundamental difference between them and us, this is the terrible danger involved in the establishment of a third independent sovereign state between us and the Jordan River… A third state is liable to be an arrow-head directed at the very heart of Israel with all the force of the Arab world behind it.
Amnon Rubinstein, ‘The Pitfall of a Third State ’Ha’artez, 6.8.1976
However, the answer to this is very simple. The Arab world can exist, prosper, and develop not only if our artillery threatens Kalkilya, but even if it hits it. Israel, small and exposed, will neither be able to exist nor to prosper if its urban centers, its vulnerable airport and its narrow winding roads, are shelled.
[The proponents of Palestinian State] claim if they [the Arabs] threaten us with artillery from Kalkilya , we will threaten Kalkilya with our artillery.
Maariv
Maariv
12.6.1992 Ariel Sharon
Imperative Not To Flee From Terror
And Gaza is the prime example. The populated sections of Gaza had in 1970 become an area controlled by the terrorist organizations because the Defense Minister decided to evacuate the towns, villages and refugee camps. Fortunately we returned to the correct policy before the Gaza Strip exploded like festering abscess, which could have poisoned the entire surroundings. But because of mistaken policy – of fleeing from the population centers and refraining from eliminating the danger in its early formative stages – we had to conduct a much more difficult and lengthy campaign.
These experiences prove not only that terror can be eradicated, but also the principle by which this is to be accomplished. It is imperative not to run from terrorism, and it will be smitten only if we control its bases and it engage its gangs on their own territory.
If now we once more fall into the same mistake, the price will be much heavier than before – because now the terrorists and the means they have at their disposal are different and more dangerous than before. If we abandon Gaza, it will be taken over by the terror organizations. Palestine Square [in Gaza] will become a launching site for rockets aimed at … Ashkelon and what will the IDF do then? Will it once again recapture Gaza? Shell and bomb the towns and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip? We all aspire to a political settlement, but we not will reach it by way of surrender but only after crushing terrorism and we can only eliminate terrorism if we control its bases, and fight its gangs there and destroy them.
Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and HistoryHistory, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993 , New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993
I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much.
* See Appendix D. Editor
The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River.
What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.*
[A]ny new wells drilled between the recharge area and the Israeli taps could cut off supply and, by lowering the water tables in the part of the aquifer that extends to the west of the Green Line, allow saline water from greater depths to seep in, permanently ruining what is left”
US News & World Report, 16.12.91.
It is the rain falling on the West Bank that recharges the aquifer;
But as the population and water demand on both sides of the Green Line have grown, the control of the western slopes has attained a new and vital importance for Israel.
Wells within Israel proper were tapping this water long before the Six-Day War.
Location of wells and springs in districts of the West Bank
Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of
Israel’s Water
● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases
● Principal Power Stations
● Sweet Water System
● Crucial Communications and Transport Systems
● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military
● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control, and Centers of Civilian Government
● 80% of the Population and 80% of the Economic Activity
)b (Width – No “Strategic Depth”
)a (Length – Extent of Frontiers
)c (Height – Topographical Inferiority
)d (Depth – Hydrological Dependency
Territorial ConcessionsTerritorial Concessions= =
Multi Dimensional ThreatMulti Dimensional Threat !! !!
Endeavors to Solve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Limited Autonomy
Negotiated Sovereignty
Extended Autonomy
Unilateral Withdrawal
Other Solutions
Rabin
Rabin
Lebanon, Gaza
Lebanon, Gaza
????????
Oslo +
Oslo +
Derivatives
Derivatives
Camp David I
Camp David I
Question:Question:
Why has a Palestinian State Not Been Why has a Palestinian State Not Been Established up to Now??Established up to Now??
* Best Prospects * Best Prospects
* Worst Results* Worst Results
Palestinian Palestinian DeedsDeeds and Palestinian and Palestinian DeclarationsDeclarations Raise Doubts:Raise Doubts:
* Do* Do PalestiniansPalestinians ReallyReally DeserveDeserve Statehood? Statehood?
* Do Palestinians Really * Do Palestinians Really DesireDesire Statehood? Statehood?
Do Palestinians Really Do Palestinians Really DeserveDeserve Statehood? Statehood?
- Failed the Test of History- Failed the Test of History
Highly Supportive International Media Highly Supportive International Media CoverageCoverage
Almost Universal International Endorsement Almost Universal International Endorsement of Their Claimsof Their Claims
DecadesDecades of Super Power Patronage of Super Power Patronage
Highly Accommodative Israeli Regimes Highly Accommodative Israeli Regimes which not only which not only AcknowledgedAcknowledged but but IdentifiedIdentified with their Claims with their Claims
The Palestinians have enjoyed:The Palestinians have enjoyed:
Do Palestinians ReallyDo Palestinians Really DesireDesire Statehood? Statehood?
Two Hypotheses:Two Hypotheses:
*Conflict Fueled by *Conflict Fueled by LackLack of Palestinian Self of Palestinian Self Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Determination; Palestinians Aspire to EstablishEstablish a a State for State for ThemselvesThemselves..
*Conflict Fueled by *Conflict Fueled by ExistenceExistence of Jewish Self- of Jewish Self-Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Determination; Palestinians Aspire to DismantleDismantle a a State for State for OthersOthers..
The appearance of the Palestinian national personality comes as an answer to Israel’s claim that Palestine is Jewish.
Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian identity serves only tactical purposes. The founding of a Palestinian state is a new tool in the continuing battle against Israel.
There are no differences between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. We are all part of one nation. It is only for political reasons that we carefully underline our Palestinian identity, because it is in the interest of the Arabs to encourage a separate Palestinian identity.
… Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as one people.
Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977.
King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987
Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's Military Department and member of its Executive Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977
Article 12: The Palestinian people believe in Arab unity. In order to contribute their share toward the attainment of that belief, however, they must, at at the present stage of their strugglethe present stage of their struggle, safeguard their Palestinian identity and develop their consciousness of that identity, and oppose any plan that may dissolve or impair it.
Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the Palestinian Arab people, is an inseparable part of the greater Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are Palestinian people are a part of the Arab Nation.a part of the Arab Nation.
The Palestinian National CharterThe Palestinian National Charter
Two Hypotheses:Two Hypotheses:
*Conflict Fueled by *Conflict Fueled by LackLack of Palestinian Self of Palestinian Self Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Determination; Palestinians Aspire to EstablishEstablish a State for a State for ThemselvesThemselves..
*Conflict Fueled by *Conflict Fueled by ExistenceExistence of Jewish Self- of Jewish Self-Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Determination; Palestinians Aspire to DismantleDismantle a State for a State for OthersOthers..
Which has Greater Explanatory
Which has Greater Explanatory
Power ??Power ??
Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“,"right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.
Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak Barak proposalproposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of "end of conflict“conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explic-able only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.
Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gazasovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.
Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and rhetoric and symbolismsymbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.
Rejection of every territorial proposalevery territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000
Rejection of every territorial proposalevery territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000
Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and rhetoric and symbolismsymbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.
Palestinian Symbolis
m
Palestinian Symbolis
m
Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - GCPalestine Liberation Organization (PLO)
Palestinian Symbolis
m
Palestinian Symbolis
m
Hamas Palestinian Islamic Jihad
Some Principles of the Hamas CharterSome Principles of the Hamas Charter
► ► Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it. before it.
► ► The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given upgiven up. .
► ► There is no solution for the Palestinian question There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavorsand vain endeavors.
Palestinian Rhetoric
Palestinian Rhetoric
Fateh: The Movement's Essential PrinciplesFateh: The Movement's Essential Principleshttp://www.fateh.net/e_public/constitution.htm
Article (6Article (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejectedArticle (7)Article (7) The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method. Article (8)Article (8) The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism
GoalsArticle (12Article (12) Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence. Article (13)Article (13) Establishing an independent democratic state with complete sovereignty on all Palestinian lands, and Jerusalem is its capital city, and protecting the citizens' legal and equal rights without any racial or religious discrimination.
MethodsArticle (19Article (19)) Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated
Palestinian Rhetoric
(cont)
Palestinian Rhetoric
(cont)
FatehArticle (7) The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method. method. Article (8) The Israeli existence in Palestine is a The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialismimperialism
HamasThe Zionist invasion is a mischievous one. It does The Zionist invasion is a mischievous one. It does not hesitate to take any road, or to pursue all not hesitate to take any road, or to pursue all despicable and repulsive means to fulfill its despicable and repulsive means to fulfill its desires.desires.
The Nature of Zionism and the The Nature of Zionism and the Existence of IsraelExistence of Israel
FatehFatehArticle (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejectedright in their homeland are illegal and rejectedArticle (22) Opposing any political solution offered as an Opposing any political solution offered as an alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestinian case or impose any international mandate on its Palestinian case or impose any international mandate on its people. people.
HamasHamas[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the [Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement….The initiatives, proposals and Resistance Movement….The initiatives, proposals and International Conferences are but a waste of time, an International Conferences are but a waste of time, an exercise in futility…Those conferences are no more than a exercise in futility…Those conferences are no more than a means to appoint the nonbelievers as arbitrators in the means to appoint the nonbelievers as arbitrators in the lands of Islam. Since when did the Unbelievers do justice to lands of Islam. Since when did the Unbelievers do justice to the Believers?the Believers?
Attitudes to Peace and Efforts of Attitudes to Peace and Efforts of International Mediation International Mediation
HamasIsrael will exist and will continue to exist until Islam Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it…There is no solution for the Palestinian question it…There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihadexcept through Jihad
Fateh -Methods-
Article (19) Armed struggle is a strategy and not a Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberateddemolished and Palestine is completely liberated
The Rejection of Any Non-Violent The Rejection of Any Non-Violent Resolution of the ConflictResolution of the Conflict
FatehFateh
- Goals - - Goals - Article (12)Article (12) Complete liberation of Palestine, and Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existenceand cultural existence
HamasHamasThe Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up… any part of it, should not be given up… Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population, defies Islam having a Jewish population, defies Islam and the Muslims.and the Muslims.
The Totality of the Repudiation of Israel
Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and GazaBank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.
Article 24: This Organization does not exercise any territorial sovereignty over the West Bank in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, on the Gaza Strip or in the Himmah Area…
Article 16: The liberation of Palestine…is a defensive act necessitated by the demands of self-defense as stated in the Charter of the United Nations. For that, the people of Palestine… look forward to…restoring the legitimate situation to Palestine, establishing peace and security in its territory, and enabling its people to exercise national sovereignty...
THE PALESTINIAN NATIONAL CHARTERAdopted in 1964 by the 1st Palestinian Conference
Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak Barak proposalproposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of "end of conflict“conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explicable only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.
Stubborn insistence on the "right "right of return“,of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.
So which Hypothesis should be So which Hypothesis should be adopted as a basis for policy?adopted as a basis for policy?
*Conflict Fueled by *Conflict Fueled by LackLack of Palestinian Self of Palestinian Self Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Determination; Palestinians Aspire to EstablishEstablish a State for a State for ThemselvesThemselves..
*Conflict Fueled by *Conflict Fueled by ExistenceExistence of Jewish Self- of Jewish Self-Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Determination; Palestinians Aspire to DismantleDismantle a State for a State for OthersOthers..
Retention of Defensible Borders Retention of Defensible Borders Implies Palestinian State Implies Palestinian State Untenable.Untenable.
Establishment of Tenable Pale-Establishment of Tenable Pale-stinian State Implies Indefensible stinian State Implies Indefensible BordersBorders
Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and HistoryHistory, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993 , New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993
I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much.
* See Appendix D. Editor
The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River.
What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.*
…all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River
Remove Issue of Palestinian Remove Issue of Palestinian Statehood from International Statehood from International AgendaAgenda
Delegitimize the Palestinian Delegitimize the Palestinian Narrative that Fuels Demands Narrative that Fuels Demands for Palestinian Statehoodfor Palestinian Statehood
Removal of Issue of Palestinian State from the Removal of Issue of Palestinian State from the International Agenda Does Not Remove ProblemInternational Agenda Does Not Remove Problem
ofof HumanitarianHumanitarian PlightPlight of Palestiniansof Palestinians
Depoliticize Solution:
Reformulate Palestinian Problem in Humanitarian rather than Political Terms
Libertarian Tenets of Proposal:* Elimination of Discrimination in Treatment of
Palestinians* Facilitation of Freedom of Individual Choice
Elimination of Discrimination in Treatment of Palestinians:
•As Refugees – Elimination of UNWRA
•As Residents– Elimination of Ethnic Bias in Arab Countries
Facilitation of Freedom of Individual Choice• Generous Family Grants for Relocation and
Rehabilitation
• “Atomize” Offer – Directly to Individual Bread Winners
Accept the Relocation Grant and Accept the Relocation Grant and build a new life of himself and his build a new life of himself and his
familyfamily
Relocation and Rehabilitation as Individual Rational Choice
The individual The individual Palestinian Palestinian would have the would have the following following choices:choices:
Continue life under the Continue life under the Rigors of Israeli ControlRigors of Israeli Control
Life under and even more Life under and even more repressive and regressive repressive and regressive
Palestinian RegimePalestinian Regime
Accept the Relocation Grant and Accept the Relocation Grant and build a new life of himself and his build a new life of himself and his
familyfamily
In answer to the question "What would induce you to emigrate In answer to the question "What would induce you to emigrate permanently, permanently, only 15%only 15% stated that stated that nothingnothing would induce them. Over would induce them. Over 70% 70% specified one or more material factors that would induce themspecified one or more material factors that would induce them to to emigrate permanently - such as substantial financial compensation; emigrate permanently - such as substantial financial compensation; guarantee of a good job abroad; a high standard of housing guarantee of a good job abroad; a high standard of housing
Half the population (50%) state that they do not discount the Half the population (50%) state that they do not discount the possibility of emigrating permanently to another country if they had possibility of emigrating permanently to another country if they had the means to do so, while almost 20% stated explicitly that they the means to do so, while almost 20% stated explicitly that they wouldwould emigrate permanently . emigrate permanently .
42% state that they have considered emigrating permanently to some 42% state that they have considered emigrating permanently to some other country other country
Palestinian SurveyPalestinian Survey
Survey was conducted as face to face interviews on 15-21 Nov, 2004 during various hours of the day, by means of a structured questionnaire in Arabic, among a random sample of 528 interviewees, representative of the adult population in Judea and Samaria(17yrs of age and above). Statistical margin of error 4.5%. The sampling and the interviews were conducted by pollsters of THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION. The questionnaire design , the data input, the statistical processing, the formulation of final report were done by Maagar Mohot Ltd. The survey was conducted by Maagar Mohot Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd, under the supervision of Prof, Yitzhak Katz, Prof. Baruch Mevorach – Scientific Director, and Amir Horkin, Research Manager - in collaboration with THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION under the management of Dr.Nabil Kokli
Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Poll # 28Living Conditions
Highlights71% say that their living conditions have deteriorated since the January 2006 PLC elections.
44% of young Palestinians are willing to immigrate if given the opportunity
44% of young Palestinians are willing to immigrate if given the opportunity.
62.3% feel that Palestinian society is not heading in the right direction.
16.1% will be able to secure basic needs without a problem for another three months
Palestinian emigration on the rise
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 1, 2006
October 24, 2006 http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1024/p04s01-wome.html -
Fallout of Hamas's rule spurs
Fallout of Hamas's rule spurs
Palestinian desire to flee
Palestinian desire to flee
A poll shows that a third of Palestinians want
to leave because of violence and economic
woes. By Joshua Mitnick | Correspondent of The Christian
Science Monitor
.. the percentage of Palestinians willing to relocate once
hovered just below 20 percent. When that figure jumped to
32 percent in a September survey, Mr. Said says he was
shocked."What the Israelis were unable to do - try to push
the Palestinian out of the country - the internal strife is
achieving," he says.Even more telling, adds Said, is that
the percentage surges to 44 percent among Palestinians in
their 20s and 30s. Among young men, it surges beyond
Among young men, it surges beyond
50 percent.
50 percent.An-Najah National University
Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies
Results of Palestinian Public Opinion
Poll. No 24
16-18 November 2006
http://www.najah.edu/english/Centers/polls/poll25.asp
----------
----------
----------
----------
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------
The General Results:
* Within the present circumstances 31.4% of respondents said
* Within the present circumstances 31.4% of respondents said
that they think of emigrating.
that they think of emigrating.
*43.7% of respondents said that the main cause that compels
them to think of emigrating is the poor economic situation.;
23.8% said that it is lack of security.
Consideration should be given even to the heroic remedy of transfer of populations... the hardship of moving is great, but it is less than the constant suffering of minorities and the constant recurrence of war
President Herbert Hoover, the “Great Humanist”, in The Problems of Lasting Peace, pp.235-36.
Cost??
Fraction of Outlay Already Incurred By US in IraqFraction of Outlay Already Incurred By US in Iraq
$108 Bill$54 Bill
$24 Bill237,7771,070,000Gaza
$30 Bill300,0001,350,000West Bank
Total$87 Bill Total
$42 Bill$21 Bill206,959986,034Gaza refugees
$64 Bill$32 Bill3175001,428,757Gaza pop
$ 30 Bill$ 22.5 bill$15 Bill150,375699,817West Bnk refugees
$110 Bill$ 82.5 bill$55 Bill546,8002,460,492West Bnk pop
$174 Bill
$200,000$ 150,000$100,000FamiliesPopulationOfficial Pop. Estimates
Compensation Level
$200,000$ 150,000$100,000FamiliesPopulationZimmerman et Alia Estimates
Compensation Level
The proposed initiative constitutes a "win-win" solution which will:
* Alleviate - and even eliminate - the humanitarian plight of individual Palestinians
* Ensure the continued security and survival of Israel as the Nation State of the Jewish People
* Provide a Significant Boost to the Economies of the Developing World
* Transform poverty stricken refugees into affluent émigrés
Territorial Compromise
FeasibilityFeasibility
Relocation and Rehabilitation
Individual Recipients
Host Countries
Economic Cost
Insanity: doing the same Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and thing over and over again and expecting different results.expecting different results.
Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein
Fanaticism consists of Fanaticism consists of redoubling your efforts when redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim. you have forgotten your aim.
George SantayanaGeorge Santayana
Ha’aretz (30-7-76), by former Meretz Minister of Education, Prof. Amnon Rubinstein
Not since the time of Dr. Goebbels [Head of the Nazi Propaganda Machine] has there ever been a case in which continual repetition of a lie has born such great fruits....
Of all the Palestinian lies there is no lie greater or more crushing than that which calls for the establishment of a separate Palestinian state in the West Bank...
.
‘Palestinian Lies’
--Then Satan said to unto himself:This besieged foe, how is he to be overcome.Both courage and skill are hisHe is well armed and well alert Then said Satan: Not his strength shall I sapNor bridle and muzzle shall I place on himNor fear shall I bring into his heartNor cause him to be weak as he once wasAll I shall do is this:
His mind I shall dullHis mind I shall dullAnd make him forget And make him forget That righteousness is with himThat righteousness is with him..Thus spoke Satan, And the Heavens paled with fear as he rose To commit the deed.
Natan Alterman
- - אז אמר השטן: הנצור הזהאיך אוכל לו.
אתו האומץ וכשרון המעשהוכלי מלחמה ותושיה עצה לו.
ואמר: לא אטול כוחוולא רסן אשים ומתג
ולא מרך אביא בתוכוולא ידיו ארפה כמקדם,
אכהה מחואכהה מחורק זאת אעשה: .ושכח שאתו הצדקושכח שאתו הצדק
- - כך דבר השטן וכמו חורו שמים מאימה
בראותם אותו בקומולבצע את המזמה .
נתן אלתרמן
Endeavors to Solve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Limited Autonomy
Negotiated Sovereignty
Extended Autonomy
Unilateral Withdrawal
Other Solutions
.… .…when you have when you have eliminated the impossible, eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, whatever remains, however improbable, however improbable,
must be the truthmust be the truth"" Sherlock Holmes in Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of FourThe Sign of Four
Reframing the Palestinian Problem
Humanitarian Rather Political Terms
What Would Sherlock Holmes What Would Sherlock Holmes Have SaidHave Said
Elementary, My Dear WatsonElementary, My Dear Watson
Unique Religion
Unique Language
Unique Script
Unique History
Unique Customs
Israel Palestinians
The Case for an Independent Nation StateThe Case for an Independent Nation State
Palestinian Statehood as a
Historical Anachronism
Two Competing Hypotheses
Re-Legitimize the Zionist Narrative
No credible capable
Palestinian leadership has
emerged Proven Palestinian
Political Incompetence Failure
despite very favorable conditions Palestinians
Failed test of history
Palestinian Behavior and
Decisions
Don’t DeserveStatehood
Rejected every
territorial proposal
Revealed Preferences:Declarations & Deeds
Don’t desire Statehood
De-legitimization of Palestinian
Narrative
Remove the Issue of
Palestinian Statehood from
Int’l AgendaThe Human
Predicament Persists
Abandon Political Paradigm;
Adopt Humanitarian one
Mutually Exclusive, Irreconcilable National
Claims
Superior Jewish Claims to
Self Determination
Pre Oslo I (‘90-92) growth rate (6.6%)
Barak’s Camp David Offer
Signature of Oslo I
Signature of Oslo II
Post Oslo II (’96-99) growth rate (3.4%)
Post Oslo I (’94-96) growth rate (6.1%)
Total Post Oslo
Total Post Oslo
(1994-2000 ) Average
(1994-2000 ) Average
Growth 4.9% < 5.2%
Growth 4.9% < 5.2%