issues on transport connectivity in northeast asia...2018/09/04 · economic research institute for...

Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, All Rights Reserved

Key Issues on Transport Connectivity in Northeast Asia

新井洋史 Hirofumi Arai環⽇本海経済研究所(ERINA)

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111th GSDM Platform Seminar7th September 2018University of Tokyo


“Vision for NEA Transport Corridors” by ERINA

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ERINA・東京大学GSDM主催セミナー「北東アジアの経済統合に向けて」

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Two Layers in NEA Transport Structure

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• Between Asia and Europe

• “Trans‐Siberian Railways(TSR)” /“China‐Europe Railway Express”

Trans‐continental seamless

transportation

• Between “Inland NEA” and“Oceanic NEA”

• Sea‐land multimodal transport

Intra‐regional seamless

transportation


Target Segments of Logistics Services

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To Europe & Central Asia

Trans‐Eurasian Transit (SLB)

Intra‐Regional Transport

Trans‐Eurasian Transit (CLB)


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Land Transport vs. Marine Transport

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Shorter & Faster


Shipping Cost &Time from Wuhan to Hamburg

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Source: Tsuji (2016)

Mode Cost (USD/FEU) Time (Door‐to‐door)

Air 14,000~15,000 4~5 days

Rail 4,000~5,000 around 20 days

Truck+Sea > 4,000 40 days

River+Sea 2,000 51 days


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Market Segment for Eurasian Land Bridge (ELB)

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Air

Rail = ELB

（SLB&CLB）

Marine (Deep Sea)

High value, light cargo

Low value, heavy cargo 22 mil. TEU/y

1‐2 mil. TEU/y (?)

Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, All Rights Reserved 8

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

東航（中国→EU）⻄航（EU→中国）

東航（中国→EU）⻄航（EU→中国）

Number of trains

Volume transported (TEU)

Number of Container Trains

Volume transported (TEU)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000

Eastbound (China to EU)

Westbound (EU to China)

Eastbound (China to EU)

Westbound (EU to China)

History of China‐Europe Railway Express（中欧班列）

Source: Eurasian Development Bank (2018) etc.


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“Eurasia Train Direct” service

• “Nippon Express,” one of the Largest forwarders in Japan, launched FCL transport service in 2015, then LCL in 2016.

• The company expand the area of service in September 2017.

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NE China Provinces’ “Silk Road” initiatives

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Jilin provinceHunchun ‐Zarubino ‐Busan

(From 2015)

Heilongjiang provinceSuifenhe ‐Vladivostok/Vostochny ‐Busan –Shanghai

(From 2016)

Growing, but still small amount of cargo.

ex. 9098TEU(1‐9, ‘17)


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Russia’s ITC “Primorye‐1” and “Primorye‐2”

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https://minvr.ru/activity/infrastrukturnoe‐razvitie‐regionov/


Non‐physical Infrastructure Matters

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Ultimate Customers

Primary Customers

Logistics Services

Transport Operation

Institution

Physical Infrastructure

• Consumers

• Producers

• Venders / Sales Agents

• Forwarders / 3PL Business

• Brokers

• Carriers

• Governments

• International Organizations

• Governments

• Public Enterprises


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Service Scheme of SLB & CLBTrans‐loading Low‐frequency

Trans‐loading Trans‐loading High‐frequency

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EuropeEurope

Russia

JapanROKJapanROK

PRCPRCMongolia C. Asia

Mongolia C. Asia


Container Transport between CHN and EU/RUS

2016, Thous. TEU

West Bound East Bound

ThroughDostyk(KAZ)

ThroughZabaikal’sk

(RUS)

Through Naushki(MON)

Others (incl. Grodekovo(RUS))

ThroughDostyk(KAZ)

ThroughZabaikal’sk

(RUS)

Through Naushki(MON)

Others (incl. Grodekovo(RUS))

CHN – EU 65 20 7 5 34 11 5 <1

CHN – RUS 5 50 <1 <1 0 17 <1 4

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Source: Eurasian Development Bank (2018) etc.


©ERINA

issues on transport connectivity in northeast asia...2018/09/04 · economic research institute for...

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