Facing the Fold Jay Ogilvy

Writing the Future WDC March 20, 2010

Overview 

•  The eclipse of utopia •  Four stances toward historical 6me and futurity 

•  Facing the fold •  Construc6ng scenarios  •  Communica6ng scenarios 

•  The scenaric stance 

Stances toward 6me and futurity 

•  Tradi6onal, cyclical, 6me as “the moving image of eternity” 

•  Modernity, progressive, op6mis6c •  Postmodernism, pessimis6c, decline •  A fourth turning, facing the fold, a scenaric stance 

Model of Aggression in Dogs 

Behavior Surface Avoiding

Retreating A

Control Surface

Bifurcation Set

A B

C RAGE

Growling

Attacking B

Behavior

C

Facing the Fold 

Behavior Surface Decline

Disaster A

Control Surface

Bifurcation Set

A B

C Optimism

Improvement

Utopia B

Behavior

C

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”

—Ken Olsen, president of DEC, 1977

“Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000. Actual sales for PCs in the 1980s: over 25,000,000.”

—IBM, 1979

“Anyone who thinks the ANC is going to run South Africa is living in cloud cuckoo land.” —Margaret Thatcher, 1987

Who would have guessed that . . . 

•  Apartheid would end in South Africa •  Oil prices would drop in 1986 •  The Cold War would end  

•  Iraq would raid Kuwait 

What Are Scenarios? 

•  Scenarios are devices for ordering one’s percep6ons about alterna6ve environments in which one’s decisions might be played out. Their power comes from being focused. 

•  Effec6ve scenarios are always “customized to context.” 

 Focal issue 

 Key factors 

 Environmental forces 

 Cri5cal uncertain5es 

 Scenarios 

  Implica5ons and op5ons 

 Early indicators  Scenario 

logics 

Developing Scenarios 

uncertainty

importance

Step Four: Rank Cri6cal Uncertain6es 

• Each team member has 25 virtual poker chips  to spend  

• Individually allocate chips according to: 

X X X

Scenarios for healthcare reform 

Step Six: Tell the Stories An ancient art form whose relevance and power  

is being rediscovered today... 

When a manager comes to me, I don’t ask him “What’s the problem?” I say, “Tell me a story.” That way I find out what the problem really is. —Avram Goldberg

•  An ancient and enduring way of making and communicating meaning

•  Underpins many professions—lawyers, historians, politicians… •  Key in business context too—increasingly recognized by, e.g. 3M

•  High cognitive and emotional impact, and memorable •  Simplifies complexity

•  Blends the familiar with the novel to create fresh perspectives

Some Familiar Plots o  Winners and losers 

o  Crisis and response 

o  Good news and bad news 

o  Evolu6onary change 

o  Revolu6onary change 

o  Cycles 

Elements of a Good Story 

o Beginning, middle, and end o Timeless adventure o Quest o Coming of age 

– Hero departs, experiences difficulty, performs a deed  or experiences a revela6on, and is changed somehow 

– Denouement, resolu6on 

The Power of Stories 

Name Species Hair/Fur Age Appetite Level Size

Preliminary Porridge

Assessment

Preliminary Mattress

Assessment

Goldi-locks Human Blonde 8 Moderate Petite N/A N/A

Papa Bear Brown 12 High Big Too Hot Too Hard

Mama Bear Tawny 11 Moderate Medium Too Cold Too Soft

Baby Bear Red-Brown 3 Low Small Just Right Just Right

The Power of Stories Onceuponatime,therewasalittlegirlnamedGoldilocks.Shewentforawalkintheforest.Prettysoon,shecameuponahouse.Sheknockedand,whennooneanswered,shewalkedrightin.Atthetableinthekitchen,therewerethreebowlsofporridge.Goldilockswashungry.Shetastedtheporridgefromthefirstbowl.

“Thisporridgeistoohot!”sheexclaimed…

Virtues and advantages of the scenaric stance 

•  An acute sense of freedom •  Intellectual honesty •  Deliberate intent with a sense of the stakes 

•  Emo6onal depth •  A subtle frame of mind 

Thank you Jay Ogilvy 

j.a.ogilvy@gmail.com