Jerusalem40 years of reunification1967 - 2007GeographyPopulationGeopolitics

Israel KimhiJIIS

The Jerusalem Institutefor Israel StudiesEstablished 1978

Non - profit academic NGOMain study clusters:JerusalemIsraeli Palestinian conflict

alternative & solutionsEnvironmental policySocial-Economic policyApplied demographic researchHeritage conservationUrban environmentMetropolitan policy issues

JIIS

Jerusalem Institutefor Israel Studies (JIIS)Established by the Jerusalem Foundation and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, it provides a constant flow of relevant, and accurate data, in - depth background material, policy papers and professional analysis on Jerusalem for use by decision makers and the general public on subjects of great importance.These studies are accompanied by applicable suggestions for options and solutions, brought forward by leading academics and practitioners.

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Jerusalem Institutefor Israel Studies

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Jerusalem A Core IssueNational, Religious, Cultural andEconomic conflicts

JIIS role:Background to policy makersClarification of main issuesPresentation of alternatives

2002HarHomaJIIS

Jerusalem is Israel'slargest city:Jurisdiction Area - 126 km2The area of the second largest city,Tel AvivYafo, is 51 km2Mosaic of population groups: - Jews, Arabs and ChristiansThe largest Arab minority living together with Jews in one city

JerusalemBeer ShevaTel-Aviv - YafoHaifaJIIS

Identities: capital or living city, diverse-cosmopolitan or fundamentalConflicts: religious, national, planning, socialFears: strong population leaving, haredization, poor city, arab identity

Regional contextTel-Aviv Jerusalem AmmanNablus Jerusalem Hebron

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LocationTel-Aviv - Jerusalem - AmmanJIIS

Still a potential crossing point on the road to amman

TopographyNatural BordersWatershedBetween the desert in the

east & the green land in the westJIIS

Growth of the Built-up AreaModern

Jerusalem is only 150 years old Source: Martin GilbertJIIS

Changing The Municipal Borders1967 - 2007JIIS

Corpus Seperatum, 1947JIIS

November 29th 1947

The Municipal Jurisdiction Before June - 1967Israeli controlled west Jerusalem:38 km2Jordanian controlled east Jerusalem:6 km2

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Key point: many of Jerusalem's Palestinian neighborhoods today were not part of the city until 1967. among these: sur baher, beit hanina.

Following the Six - Days War of 1967The city's jurisdiction was enlarged by some 70 km2 on 28 June 1967, in an accelerated legislative process. With an area of 108 km2, the city encompassed west Jerusalem, east Jerusalem, the Old City, and extensive additional areas, mainly to the north and south, including 28 Arab villages or parts of the land of those villages.

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The most far-reaching and dramatic change

In the beginning of the 1990sWestwards extension (1993) by 15 km2, to 126 km2Never built; The Plan was rejected

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Conflicts today weather to build the added areas

The development of the built up area since 1967Growing from a small Town to large MetropolisEfforts by the government to strengthen Jewish

holdings in and around the cityBuilding new

neighborhoodsEach side tries

its best to put facts on the ground2006JIIS

The GiloNeighborhood

One out of ten newneighborhoodsbuild by the government in Jerusalem after 1967

Ramot Alon neighborhood

Changes in the functional structure of Jerusalem1967 - 2008

POPULATION

Israel policy of maintaining the Jewish - Arab demographic balance - failed

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Demography: a factor which, to an extent, determines the citys imagePolitical influence of each population groupTerritorial consumption in the urban spaceEach group's way of life within the cityConsumption of services and the character of the services provided, especially in education, culture, religion, and welfareEconomic status of each group (family structure and size, rate of participation in the workforce)

Population Size in the city proper - 2006Total 733,000 (10% of Israel's population)thereof:66% Jews (481,000)

34% Arabs (252,000)Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews:approx. 30% of the Jewish

population

434,000 residents

in East Jerusalem, 43% of them are Jews JIIS

Population Growth in Jerusalem 1967-2007 (000)JIIS

Year19672007Growth (%)Jews19874%48765%146Arabs6926%26035%277Total267100%747100%181

Age by Area% of children(0-14)% of elderly (65+)JIIS

Age Structure Tel Aviv JerusalemJIIS

Average Annual GrowthJIIS

Natural Increase Major source of population growth in Jerusalem

1967: the Jewish population's rate of natural increase was far below that of the Arab population.1987: Jews and Arabs had about the same natural increasesince 1988: as a result of the Intifada (which had a baby boom effect), the birth rate among the Arab population increased.

ArabsJewsBirth rateJIIS

3

25.840.5

27.638.4

28.532.6

28.330

28.829.8

27.933.5

26.335.4

26.497188951434.9

25.73182247434.8

25.232.5

25.234.7

24.836.4

24.634.1

24.134

24.6531.79

Jews & others

Arabs

1

and Rates Per Thousand, by Population Group, 1980 - 2002

YearIsrael Jerusalem

Jews & othersArabs

198024.322.036.529.925.840.51976

198224.021.834.930.527.638.41978199027.933.5

198423.721.632.529.728.532.61980

198623.121.231.928.928.330.01982200024.634.1

198822.720.233.329.128.829.81984200224.731.8

199022.119.434.429.527.933.51986

199321.318.534.028.926.335.41989

199421.218.334.128.926.534.91990

199621.318.333.728.525.734.81992

199721.418.532.827.525.232.51993

199821.818.733.728.225.234.71994

199921.518.535.028.424.836.41995

200021.718.732.327.724.634.11996

200121.218.331.327.424.134.01997

200221.218.629.927.124.731.81998

1

Jews & others

Arabs

" "

Jerusalem

198094.3-0.0??94.3?71.4?22.91980?12.10.0?12.1?7.5?4.6

198296.70.0??96.7?73.0?23.71982?12.80.0?12.8?8.3?4.5

198498.30.2??98.5?74.4?24.01984?13.10.1?13.1?9.0?4.1

198699.30.0??99.3?75.0?24.21986?13.30.0?13.4?9.4?3.9

1988100.40.1??100.5?73.6?26.81988?14.2-0.0?14.2?10.1?4.1

1990103.30.1??103.4?73.9?29.51990?15.00.0?15.1?10.2?4.8

1993112.3-0.0??112.3?79.2?33.11993?16.20.0?16.2?10.6?5.6

1994114.50.0??114.5?80.1?34.41994?16.50.0?16.5?10.8?5.7

1996121.30.0??121.3?83.7?37.61996?17.30.0?17.3?10.9?6.4

1997124.40.1??124.5?86.1?38.31997?17.00.0?17.0?10.8?6.2

1998130.10.0??130.1?88.7?41.31998?17.7-0.0?17.7?10.9?6.8

1999131.9-0.0??131.9?92.6?39.41999?18.2-0.0?18.2?11.0?7.2

2000136.40.0??136.4?91.9?44.52000?18.1-0.0?18.1?10.8?7.3

2001136.6-0.0??136.6?91.2?45.42001?18.1-0.1?18.1?10.6?7.5

2002139.50.0??139.5?94.3?45.22002?18.3-0.0?18.3?11.0?7.3

Internal migrationSince 1967 more than 422,000 Jews have left the city. 50% remained in the greater metropolitan area of Jerusalem.The migration balance was -103,000. Almost no migration out

of the city from the Arab sector.JIIS

Population projection (in thousands)JIIS

Year20072020Jews48166%57660%Arabs25234%37040%Total733100%946100%

Population projectionsThe Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2006JIIS

200720202035Jews65%60%50%Arabs35%40%50%

Geographic Distribution of the PopulationHighly diversifiedpopulation; a mosaic of different neighborhoods"Seam lines" between different ways of life Jewish ArabSecular Ultra - OrthodoxImpact on the city on a day-to-day level

HarHoma2002JIIS

The Metropolitan AreaTotal population(inc. Jer.):approx. 1.6 m.- 52% Arabs- 48% Jews

T.A. Metropolitanarea 2.8 m.95% Jews5% Arabs

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The Main Economic ProblemsPoor city large families (Arabs & Orthodox Jews)Not enough participation in the labor forceMigration of Young & educated peopleMigration of Middle class families Unbalanced occupational structure Not enough governmental aid to the cityImpact of the Israeli Palestinian conflictThe security fence losing the hinterlandShortage of housing & jobs for young people

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Employed Personsby Economic Branch-2006JIIS

JerusalemTel-AvivIsraelPublic sector48%26%32%Financial services13%33%17%Industry7%8%16%

Poverty - 2005Families Below the "Poverty Line" (%)Participation in the Labor Force (%)JIIS

Income per capita - 2004

The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2006JIIS

JerusalemTel AvivHaifaBeer-sheva1,9624,4583,4853,101

Poverty rate* The poorest large city in Israel (2003) * Persons under the poverty lineThe Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2006JIIS

Jerusalem Image - 2007 (2006)

A center for the Jewish people 84% (94%)City with many cultural activities (96%) (94%)It is not dangerous to visit Jerusalem (88% of non Jerusalem population) (87%)It is not true that life quality in Jerusalem is low (86%) (82%)The most beautiful city in Israel (71%) (71%)A city that is becoming more Ultra-Orthodox (62%) ( (64%

The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007JIIS

What should be done?

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Making the most of the relative advantages of JerusalemNot to compete with Tel Aviv as a financial center, but rather concentrate on Jerusalems merits:Capital city Center for the Jewish peopleCulture centerTourist centerMedical & scientific centerResearch and higher education centerReligious center Center for future peace industries

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A strategic socio-economic master plan is essential for the city

Leadership with a new vision is needed

All the suggested cultural projects will be of no value if the city's economy, the social conditions, & the quality of life continue to deteriorate

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The major policies should be:

1. Strengthening the city's economy.

2. Taking all necessary measures to stop the middle class families & the well - educated youngsters from leaving the city. 3. Restructuring the municipal administration.

4. Divide the city into boroughs.

5. Create a new metropolitan administration

6. Change the city border which is today completely anachronistic.

7. Stop neglecting the Arab sector.

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PrioritiesCreating new jobs & employment opportunitiesEnhancing the quality of lifeRehabilitating the city center & the inner cityRenewing deteriorated neighborhoods and making them denserStrengthening the city as a metropolitan centerPreserving the character & the historical heritage of the cityEnhancing the public services in East Jerusalem

The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007JIIS

ProposalsInvestments in employment projectsHigh-tech industriesHigher educationTourism Enhancement of public servicesEducation CultureParks & open spacesStrengthening Jerusalem's image & its ties with the Jewish world

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Economic OpportunitiesCapital cityTourism IndustryHigh Education centerHigh-tech industries, bio-technology & research Multimedia & ArtsCultural cityHealth center Strengthening Jerusalem's image & its connections with the Jewish worldAdding to the labor force Orthodox men & Palestinian women

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Changes in The Metropolitan AreaFrom dead end to central locationSince 1967 Jerusalem has resumed its metropolitan status

During the last 40 years the metropolitan area grew rapidly to 1.6 million people, 78% are PalestiniansStrengthening the Jewish hold by new settlements

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Changes in The Metropolitan AreaFrom dead end to central locationTotal population(including. Jer.):approx. 1.6 m.thereof:52% Arabs48% JewsTotal population(Excluding Jer.)

80% Arabs20% Jews JIIS

Geopolitical IssuesOld city & the Historic BasinBoroughs system as an interim stage solutionSeparation from Arab Neighborhoods New borders to Jerusalem

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The Historic Basin & the Old City: Suggested Principles for NegotiationsSeparating the problems of the Old City & the historical basin from the rest of the negotiable issues Postponing the subject of sovereignty over the Old City & the Historic Basin for a long timeIntroducing a third party to administrate the area if the two parties are not able to reach an agreementLeaving the city undivided physically living together separately in an open cityEstablishing a municipal system of self administrating boroughs - with wide functional autonomy until the final agreement

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The Historic Basin95% of the holy places in Jerusalem are within the historic basinTotal area:618 AcresJIIS

Historic Basin Land OwnershipLandOwnershipChurchesJewishArab privateMoslem Waqf23514715977Owner Acres8237729227624439381317161445644138332JIIS

The Old City The Core of the ConflictLandOwnership

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The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007Municipal Boroughs

Functional AutonomyDe-centralization of authority to municipal boroughs

Possible division into self-governing boroughsJIIS

Separation from Arab Neighborhoods

New Administrative Structure for the Jerusalem Metropolitan AreaThe metropolitan area"The green line"Jerusalem Municipal area

RamallahA-RamBet ShemeshAbu DisMevaseret ZionAbu GoshThe Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007Maale AdumimBethlehemEfratGush EtzionGivat ZeevJIIS

Alternative AUnder Israel sovereignty: 30 % PalestiniansJIIS

Alternative BUnder Israel sovereignty: 16 % PalestiniansJIIS

Alternative CUnder Israel sovereignty: 12 % PalestiniansJIIS

The security fence in the Jerusalem area

a major change

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Terror attacks - data30% of the terror attacks on Israel between 2000 - 2003 took place in the Jerusalem areaSince 1967 - close to 500 terrorist attacks in Jerusalem & its environsClose to 3,000 casualties in Jerusalem, of which 520 were fatalities, approximately half of them during the last three years of the Intifada

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Terror casualtiesJIIS

Israel TotalJerusalemTel Aviv Haifa1967-19994,8471,390837892000-20035,0811,524767239

The PurposeThe sole purpose of the security fence is to provide security for the Israelis. As a fundamental self-defense measure, it is justified according to any standard.As such, it is a response to the acts of terrorism emanating from the West Bank

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According to IDF expertsThe security fence will improve the ability of the IDF to prevent:Infiltration of terroristsSmuggling of weapons & explosivesInfiltration of criminalsIllegal migration of Palestinians into the Israeli Arab sectorInfiltration of illegal laborersJIIS

Route & structure Total planned fence - 763 Km (477 miles)Already built - 350 Km (218 mi.)In construction 160 Km (100mi) The security fence is made of: 11% concrete wall, 89% fence Concrete walls are used in built- up areas or to prevent snipers (Trans-Israel Cross Road near

Qalqilya).JIIS

Multi-layered Obstacle Structure:Barbed wire (six coils)Ditch (5.5m wide)Patrol road (5m wide)Intrusion-detection fence (3m. high)Dirt tracking road (to detect footprints)Paved patrol road2nd dirt tracking roadBarbed wireSophisticated observation system

Total width: 40-60m (45-67 yd.)JIIS

Typical section of the fenceSource: Ministry of DefenceJIIS

The Security Fence

Palestinian populationJewish populationCheckpointJerusalem jurisdictionFence RouteJIIS

The Route, Crossing Points

Currently Executed RouteFence separating Palestinians from Palestinians, creating conflictsJIIS

Basic facts and problemsThe fence in Jerusalem is the most dramatic change in the city since 1967In most cases, it follows the municipal borderThe fence constitutes a transition from a virtual border back to an impermeable barrierIt will affect both Palestinians and IsraelisThe fence separates mostly Palestinians from Palestinians

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It cuts through a living urban fabric of neighborhoods & suburbsIt encompasses Christian holy places and land owned by churches, as well as Jewish holy places such as Rachel's tombIt separates families of the same Bedouin tribe - the Sawahra & first-degree relativesIt separates some 90,000 Palestinians holding Israeli (blue) ID cards from the cityIt puts many Palestinians in uncertainty about their future status, changing their fabric of lifeThe Jerusalem region is observed closely by the entire world

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Impact on the city:Demography EconomyPublic servicesTransportation & infrastructureMetropolitan connections

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Demographic & Social ImpactMigration of thousands of Palestinians into Jerusalem will change the demographic balance and especially:Increase population density & occupancy rate per roomBurden public services (e.g. shortage of classrooms)Increase migration of Palestinians from the P.A. to Jerusalem, even to Jewish neighborhoodsIncrease the number of poor familiesIncrease social-economic gaps between communitiesDisconnect people from their extended families

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Economic ImpactChanges in real estate prices:in Jerusalem -increase, outside decreaseDisconnection of individuals from their places of employment

Deterioration of commercial centers in the outskirts of JerusalemDisconnection of the city from its natural economic hinterland Difficulties in tourist mobility

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TourismDrop during Intifada yearsRecovery

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Impact on public servicesDifficulties for Jerusalemites outside the fence who will continue to use municipal services within Jerusalem (such as schools)

Difficulties in getting health services in JerusalemGetting to cemeteries within JerusalemLimited access to holy places

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Metropolitan IssuesSince 1967 Jerusalem has resumed its metropolitan status

During the last 38 years the metropolitan area grew rapidly to 1.6 million people, 78% Palestinians

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Metropolitan Issues (cont.)The fence will disconnect the city from its Metropolitan area (the hinterland(The result: weakening the city (a regression to the "Jerusalem corridor" 1948 - 1967)Less coordination in environmental issues with the neighboring Palestinian towns & villagesDetachment from land reserves for housing in Jerusalem

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Open QuestionsWhat will be the status of the fence in resumed negotiations? Is it a non-starter from the Palestinian point of view?Will it help to restore law and order in East Jerusalem? (mainly enforcement of building law)What will be the psychological effects on Jews & Arabs?What will be the humanitarian price of the fence?

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What will be the influence of the fence on the Palestinian residents collective identity? Accepting Israel (like Israeli Arabs) or more hostility? What will be the policies relating to passage of people, goods and services, and who will implement it?To what extent will the fence encourage migration (Palestinians to the city, Israelis out)?How will the international pressure on Israel affect the route? (Maale Adumim)

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Demographic Alternative

179,00043,000Palestinian Jerusalemites east of the barrier (Palestinian side)Palestinian populationJewish populationBarrier routePalestinian Jerusalemites west of the barrier (Israeli side)Fortified roadProposed new roadPopulation balancein JerusalemJIIS

Life Pattern AlternativeJIIS

Metropolitan Alternative"Jerusalem DC"JIIS

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Thank youIsrael KimhiJIIS

Identities: capital or living city, diverse-cosmopolitan or fundamentalConflicts: religious, national, planning, socialFears: strong population leaving, haredization, poor city, arab identity

Still a potential crossing point on the road to amman

November 29th 1947Key point: many of Jerusalem's Palestinian neighborhoods today were not part of the city until 1967. among these: sur baher, beit hanina.The most far-reaching and dramatic changeConflicts today weather to build the added areas

Demography: a factor which, to an extent, determines the citys imagePolitical influence of each population groupTerritorial consumption in the urban spaceEach group's way of life within the cityConsumption of services and the character of the services provided, especially in education, culture, religion, and welfareEconomic status of each group (family structure and size, rate of participation in the workforce)