jll-global-market-perspective-q2-2015
TRANSCRIPT
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 2
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Global Market Perspective
Contents
Global Real Estate Finds New Rhythm ........................................................................................................................... 3
Global Economy ................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Real Estate Capital Markets ............................................................................................................................................. 8
Investment Volumes ............................................................................................................................................................ 8
Capital Values and Yields ................................................................................................................................................. 13
Corporate Occupiers ...................................................................................................................................................... 14
Global Real Estate Health Monitor ................................................................................................................................. 16
Office Markets ................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Office Demand Dynamics ................................................................................................................................................. 17
Office Supply Trends ......................................................................................................................................................... 20
Office Rental Trends ......................................................................................................................................................... 23
Retail Markets .................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Industrial Warehousing Markets .................................................................................................................................... 27
Hotel Markets ................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Residential Markets ........................................................................................................................................................ 30
Key Investment Transactions in Q1 2015 ..................................................................................................................... 32
Illustrative Office Occupational Transactions in Q1 2015 ........................................................................................... 36
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 3
Global Real Estate Finds New Rhythm
Markets settle into a steady growth pattern
Following a strong final quarter of 2014, the first few months of 2015 have seen the global real estate market settle into a
steady pattern of growth. The dominant real estate markets are displaying an air of quiet confidence, underpinned by
expectations of robust activity and performance during the course of 2015. Corporates are now committing to new office
space, improving consumer confidence has put the stride back into the retail markets, and the warehousing sector is
benefiting from the vigorous expansion of e-commerce. Now that the global economy appears to be on a sounder
footing, the main downside risks are geopolitical.
Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment, 2006-2015
Source: JLL, April 2015
Investment markets continue to strengthen
Investment activity has continued to expand in 2015, but the strength of the U.S. dollar has masked the true depth of
activity. Volumes in the first quarter were up 9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms; however, they were 13% higher when
denominated in local currencies. Yields for core primary office property are at record lows, yet spreads remain healthy
and further yield compression is likely in H1 2015.
The U.S. is currently the standout investment market, with volumes up 24% year-on-year. In the meantime, Japan is
driving expansion in Asia Pacific while the UK and Germany have put in respectable growth in Europe. There is further
evidence of movement up the risk curve into Europe’s recovering markets (such as Spain and Italy), as well as in India
and Vietnam.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Global
US
$ bi
llion
s
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (F)
xx% Projected Change 2014-2015
5-10%
-15%
20%
5%
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 4
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
With abundant equity, availability of debt and the continued low interest rate environment, investment volumes are
expected to continue to rise in 2015 by at least 5% to US$740-760 billion. Both the Americas and Asia Pacific are set to
hit new records this year. However, in Europe, despite improving economic fundamentals, it may well be geopolitical
developments that play a bigger role and guide investor behaviour. We anticipate European volumes to be stable in
euro terms in 2015.
Confidence builds in the office leasing markets
Office absorption rates in the first quarter of 2015 have been modest, but the figures belie a global leasing market that is
building in confidence as corporates across a broad range of industries commit to new space and increase employee
numbers. Expansion demand across the globe remains elusive, but nonetheless a 20% uplift in net absorption is
projected for this year. In the U.S. office market, expansionary activity is more evident and we expect a spike in net
absorption later in 2015. The occupational markets in several Asia Pacific and European cities are also showing
improved sentiment, which is translating into new deals.
Corporate occupiers are focusing primarily on CBD space and/or those decentralised markets that have amenity, density
and a diverse mix of office inventory to create dynamic environments. However, tenants are finding it increasingly
difficult to procure prime CBD space, particularly in the dominant office markets – such as London, New York, Tokyo
and Hong Kong – where single-digit vacancy rates prevail. New construction is emerging quickly, but there are limited
prospects of a respite from supply shortages until at least 2016. These shortages are encouraging landlords to push up
rents, but there is still some resistance from cost-conscious tenants.
Sustained global growth, job creation and the diversity of demand will power further rental uplifts. Annual growth of 4%
is projected for the full-year 2015 across major markets. Tokyo is forecast to be the star rental performer, but the main
U.S. markets have the potential to see a sharp increase in rents during the year.
Prime Offices – Projected Changes in Values, 2015
*New York – Midtown, London – West End, Paris - CBD. Nominal rates in local currency.
Source: JLL, April 2015
+ 10%
+ 5-10%
+ 0-5%
- 0-5%
- 5-10%
Sydney, London*, Boston Chicago, Los Angeles, New York* San Francisco, Madrid, Beijing
Tokyo
Capital ValuesRental Values
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Dubai, Toronto, Washington DC, Mexico City Stockholm, Seoul, Paris* Brussels, Frankfurt
Mumbai, SingaporeSao Paulo
Tokyo, Madrid
London*, Sydney, BostonChicago, Los Angeles, New York* San Francisco, Seoul, Beijing
Paris*, Shanghai, FrankfurtDubai, Toronto, Washington DCMexico City, Stockholm, BrusselsHong Kong
Mumbai, Singapore
Sao Paulo
- 10-20% Moscow Moscow
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 5
Consumer confidence fuels optimism in the retail sector
Increased consumer confidence and retail sales are fuelling optimism in the U.S., Europe and selectively across Asia
Pacific. Several standout U.S. markets like Miami and New York are continuing to see the strongest growth conditions
typical of a rising market. Meanwhile, the outlook for Europe’s recovery markets has improved significantly, particularly
in Spain and Ireland. In Asia Pacific, new-to-market foreign retailers and/or growth of inbound tourism are supporting
retail markets in Tokyo, Australia and South East Asia.
Demand for rapid delivery drives warehousing boom
There is growing pressure on companies to implement seamless omni-channel distribution services and this is boosting
warehousing demand across the globe. There is a particular push on mega-sheds and smaller urban/urban fringe
distribution and sortation centres to support a seamless customer experience and, in particular, shorter delivery times.
The fastest growth in warehousing rents is being recorded in global gateways such as Los Angeles, London, Tokyo
and Hong Kong.
Flying start to 2015 for hotels
2015 has got off to a robust start for the hotel investment market, with transaction volumes rising by more than 80% in
Q1 to US$20.4 billion; this equates to 30% of the US$68 billion that we expect to be transacted during the year.
Investment funds and private equity firms were the most active buyers in the quarter.
Mounting new supply in the U.S. multifamily rental market
Economic growth and evolving demographics continue to bring strong demand levels to the U.S. multifamily rental
segment. However, new supply is building and by 2016-2017 the demand for units will begin to fall short of supply.
Policy restrictions have remained in place in various Asian markets to curb speculation, but China is seeing an
improvement in buying sentiment after the recent loosening of lending requirements.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 6
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Global Economy
Uneven start to the year obscures emerging upside
An eventful start to 2015 has raised as many questions as answers about the health of the global recovery. There have
been several positive surprises – the sharp oil price decline has been sustained; the ECB announced a more extensive
QE programme than most expected; bond rates sank ever lower; and rises in short-term policy rates look further down
the road. All of these should be net positives for growth, at least in the developed world.
But while there is tentative support for forecast upgrades, the risks have not disappeared. The surging U.S. dollar was a
key trend in Q1. For the advanced economies, notably those in the Eurozone, this is good news; however, this may not
be so welcome elsewhere. Emerging markets’ exports will benefit from a stronger U.S. economy, but the resurgent
dollar and the prospect of U.S. interest rate hikes will divert capital away from the developing world. This is also
compounding existing concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China.
Meanwhile, continued wrangling with Greece over its bailout has detracted from an improving picture in the Eurozone.
The hard line taken by creditors crushed the early pleas for concessions by the new Greek government, but a reform
programme has yet to be agreed. Grexit is still a possibility, yet markets remain unflustered and the episode highlights
how little the underlying problems have changed since 2011-2012. Without institutional and structural reforms in the
Eurozone, the only solution remains enforced austerity, the limits of which may soon be reached in Greece.
While the spread of risks is probably wider than before, an upside to the central view is emerging in forecasts for the
major economies. Only the U.S. has been given a downgrade, largely due to a slow Q1 and the expected impact of the
strong dollar on exports. By contrast, the UK and the Eurozone’s laggards have received an uplift compared with
January. Concerns about emerging markets have not fed into forecasts, with India strongly improved and China holding
steady.
GDP Projections for 2015 in Major Economies – Recent Movements
Australia China France Germany India Japan UK U.S.
January 2.6 6.5 1.0 1.8 5.7 0.8 2.7 3.1
April (Latest) 2.7 6.6 1.2 2.4 7.5 0.8 2.8 2.7
Change (bps) +10 +10 +20 +60 +180 0 +10 -40
Source: Oxford Economics, April 2015
Eurozone QE pushes bond yields to historic lows
The most important economic news in Q1 was the ECB’s late conversion to quantitative easing (QE) in the face of the
opposition of some national Central Banks (notably Germany). The announcement was well-received by markets in
January and, by its inception in March, some were already declaring it a success. In reality, the full impact will not be
apparent for months, though the early signs are good – the euro has plunged, bond rates have fallen and economic
confidence is rebounding. The slide in bond rates has been global, though more pronounced in Europe, with German
bund rates now close to zero and U.S. and UK rates touching new historic lows.
Part of the reason for the downward lurch in bond rates has been a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook. With
the Eurozone still loosening and UK hikes delayed, the U.S. alone is still expected to tighten rates during 2015. The
consensus remains that U.S. rates will rise during 2015, albeit probably in Q3. Policymakers will likely err on the side of
caution, but the U.S. recovery should be robust enough to absorb the change without a serious wobble.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 7
Global upturn continues
Asia Pacific has maintained its lead at the top of the global growth rankings. This is in spite of the continued slowdown
in China, whose policies are being carefully managed to minimise financial strain as its economy matures. By contrast,
India is expected to slowly pick up this year on lower prices of imported oil while slow inflation provides more scope for
monetary easing, although ongoing structural reform will be a pre-requisite for sustaining this performance over the
longer term. Japan had a disappointing 2014, but cheaper oil, easy money and improving external demand will help to
stimulate a slow revival this year and beyond.
The U.S. economic recovery faltered slightly at the turn of the year and forecasts have been modestly downgraded.
Even so, healthy employment and a modest revival in wages highlight the underlying strength of the upturn, though the
strong dollar will curb export demand. Projected U.S. growth rates indicate further uplift, but they remain below past
historic averages. The U.S. economy is driving a steady North American performance, supported by healthier Latin
American activity projected for this year and next.
Tentative signs of economic recovery and a fillip to confidence from QE have offset any concerns from the Greek bailout
in Europe. A weaker euro, low interest rates and falling oil prices will help foster a recovery in demand this year and
next, albeit a relatively slow one. The outlook for both Germany, the strongest of the core Eurozone economies, and
France has been upgraded since the start of the year. Outside of the single currency area, the UK was the top
performing developed economy in 2014. Thus far, a fractious election and the prospect of interest rate hikes in 2016
have had limited impact and the UK is predicted to experience further above-trend expansion over the next two years.
Global Outlook, GDP Change (%), 2014-2016
2014 2015 2016
Global 3.3 3.4 3.9
Asia Pacific 5.5 5.6 5.5
Australia 2.7 2.7 2.8
China 7.4 6.6 6.1
India 7.2 7.5 7.5
Japan -0.1 0.8 1.8
Americas 2.0 2.1 2.6
United States 2.4 2.7 2.8
MENA 2.1 3.0 3.9
Europe 1.5 2.0 2.4
France 0.4 1.2 1.7
Germany 1.6 2.4 2.1
UK 2.8 2.8 2.8
Source: Oxford Economics, April 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 8
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Real Estate Capital Markets
Investment Volumes
Further increases in transactional activity
Real estate investment markets have started the year in a positive manner with transactional volumes 9% higher than
the same period last year at US$155 billion. Much of the increase has been generated by activity in the U.S. where the
24% growth over the last 12 months has been one of the strongest performances globally. The higher U.S. dollar
against most currencies across the world has deflated the comparable picture slightly in the other regions, but that
shouldn’t detract from the increased level of activity that we are seeing in investment markets globally.
More of the same in Asia Pacific as Japan continues to provide the impetus
In Asia Pacific, markets have started 2015 slightly stronger than 2014, with volumes 7% higher than the same period last
year at US$25 billion. The region’s biggest market, Japan, was 6% higher year-on-year in Q1 2015 with almost US$13
billion of transactions as the end of the country’s fiscal year encouraged investment. The other large markets of China
and Australia have begun the year more slowly, although both were affected by major national holidays during the first
quarter. Singapore has exhibited signs that 2015 will be better than 2014 with a 67% rise in transactional activity in Q1,
and there is promise of more on the way with several large assets either on or coming to the market in the next few
months.
Political and geopolitical events will guide investor decisions in Europe
Europe looks set to have a more turbulent year ahead, although the first quarter has kicked off strongly in euro terms
with growth of 21%. Given the weaker euro, this translates into a more or less flat comparison to Q1 2014 with volumes
1% lower at US$57 billion. The UK had one of its most robust starts to a year with volumes of US$23.4 billion.
However, the UK is approaching pivotal elections which may be a drag on investor activity in the short term. Despite
improving economic fundamentals across the Eurozone, it may well be geopolitical developments that play a bigger role
and guide investor behaviour in 2015. If all the potential issues in the Ukraine, Russia and Greece dissipate, then the
support that QE provides to asset markets could prove to be very significant.
U.S. markets continue to drive ever upwards
The United States was the standout performer globally in the first quarter with close to US$70 billion in transactions, but
markets generally disappointed elsewhere in the Americas. The US$73 billion traded across the region was 18% higher
than a year ago, but every market was lower apart from the U.S. Latin America is notoriously volatile, so not too much
should be read into the weaker start to the year; however, Canada has seen volumes drop by 30% as lower oil prices
have had a dampening effect on the national economy, with interest rates having already been cut to compensate for
expected lower GDP growth.
Global activity continues to grow, but the higher U.S. dollar is masking scale of activity at a local level
Although the first quarter marked another period of growth for investment markets, the 9% underestimates the true scale
of activity at the local market level. The biggest markets outside the U.S. – the UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia –
have all seen their currencies weaken substantially over the last 12 months against the U.S. dollar, thus making regional
and global comparisons slightly more ambiguous. While the dollar presents headwinds in this regard, activity at the local
level continues to accelerate and we still expect full-year 2015 transactional volumes to increase by approximately 5% to
US$740-760 billion.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 9
Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment – Regional Volumes
Source: JLL, April 2015
Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment – Largest Markets, 2013-2015
Source: JLL, April 2015
REGIONAL TRENDS
U.S. commercial property a favoured asset class on global stage
The U.S. investment market has continued to build momentum and can fairly be described as ‘robust’. The flow of
institutional-quality deals is nearing the pace seen at the historic 2006-2007 cyclical peak. Moreover, macroeconomic
and financial indicators suggest that the current cycle still has ample potential for further growth – if not sustaining the
current pace being enjoyed.
Potential hazards in the market, such as excessive and ‘risky’ leverage and fast-eroding underwriting and lending
standards, have yet to present themselves in any notable fashion, but indications of these and others need to continue to
be carefully monitored. Growth was evident across all of the asset types in the U.S. over the first quarter, with the
majority of markets seeing increased transaction activity over Q1 2014.
US$ billion Q4 14 Q1 15
% change
Q4 14-Q1 15 Q1 14
% change
Q1 14-Q1 15 2013 2014
% change
2013-2014
Americas 94 73 -22% 62 18% 241 302 25%
EMEA 94 57 -39% 57 -1% 221 278 26%
Asia Pacific 44 25 -43% 23 7% 127 131 3%
TOTAL 231 155 -33% 142 9% 589 711 21%
US$ billions Q4 14 Q1 15
% change
Q4 14-Q1 15 Q1 14
% change
Q1 14-Q1 15 2013 2014
% change
2013-2014
U.S. 85.4 69.5 -19% 55.9 24% 214.6 269.1 25%
UK 33.8 23.4 -31% 22.0 6% 87.3 106.5 22%
Japan 14.8 12.9 -13% 12.2 6% 41.7 43.4 4%
Germany 16.5 10.4 -37% 11.2 -7% 38.5 46.3 21%
France 12.2 4.6 -62% 5.7 -19% 24.6 34.1 39%
China 7.0 2.6 -63% 3.0 -13% 25.1 19.2 -23%
Canada 6.7 2.6 -62% 3.8 -32% 18.1 19.1 5%
Australia 7.9 2.5 -68% 4.1 -38% 21.9 26.8 22%
Italy 3.2 2.2 -31% 1.1 93% 6.0 7.0 18%
Spain 3.1 2.0 -36% 1.6 24% 3.4 9.8 189%
Singapore 1.2 2.0 65% 1.2 67% 11.9 8.1 -32%
Sweden 6.2 1.8 -71% 3.2 -44% 10.3 16.3 58%
Norway 3.2 1.5 -51% 0.8 94% 6.5 7.0 8%
Switzerland 1.0 1.4 33% 1.5 -8% 3.7 3.1 -15%
Denmark 1.1 1.2 7% 0.7 81% 3.7 3.3 -12%
Ireland 1.6 1.1 -30% 1.3 -14% 2.5 5.4 119%
Belgium 1.5 1.0 -32% 0.3 235% 3.0 4.1 39%
Hong Kong 2.2 1.0 -54% 1.0 -1% 7.3 7.2 -1%
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 10
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Return of large deal-making
The investment market environment – particularly in the U.S. – is becoming ripe for larger and more numerous portfolio
deal-making. This includes entity-level buyouts, as shown by six such transactions that closed in Q1 2015. Most, if not
all sectors, are seeing conditions align for increased activity, including portfolio owners looking to extract the value of the
strong run-up in values over the last few years. Very large pools of equity fund capital are still being raised, mainly
related to increasing institutional allocations to real estate and the liquidity, availability and very attractive rates of the
debt markets.
Americas on track for record volumes in 2015
With an encouraging economic outlook for the remainder of 2015 – particularly on a relative basis globally – and
property market fundamentals poised to have another strong year ahead, domestic and foreign investors will find the
U.S. market offers both stability and opportunities for outsized growth this year.
Driven once again by the U.S. market, investment volumes for the Americas region are projected to increase by
approximately 20% for the full-year 2015 and surpass last cycle’s historic peak level (on an ex-entity-level transaction
basis).
Strong capital inflows into New York
From a city perspective, New York had one of its busiest quarters ever in Q1 with US$13 billion transacted, of which
over 60% involved international investors. As is usual, London and Tokyo made up the top three global destinations,
with London at US$10.4 billion and Tokyo at US$8.5 billion. The top 20 destinations continue to be dominated by U.S.
cities, but several European cities have made an appearance in the first quarter. Madrid and Milan, for example,
feature for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.
Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment – Top 20 Cities, Q1 2015
Source: JLL, April 2015
0 5 10 15
Frankfurt
Denver
Sydney
Milan
Orange County
Miami
Madrid
Boston
Honolulu
Singapore
San Jose
Paris
Chicago
Seattle
Washington DC
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Tokyo
London
New York
Americas
EMEA
Asia Pacific
US$ billions
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 11
UK leads EMEA volumes in Q1 – slowdown ahead of election likely to be felt in Q2
The UK, EMEA’s largest market, accounted for 41% of the region’s volumes in Q1 2015, rising by 13% year-on-year in
sterling terms. Likewise, Germany managed a 13% year-on-year uplift (in euro terms), while France was flat. The UK
does not as yet show any signs of slowing down in reaction to its elections in May and a possible future EU referendum,
but this may in part be due to the spillover of deals from an exceptional Q4 2014 and we will need to wait until Q2 to look
for evidence of a cooling in sentiment.
Southern Europe shows strong growth, though Greece remains the outlier
The recovering markets of Southern Europe continued to show strong growth in the first quarter, up nearly 80% (in euro
terms) year-on-year, though Greece was the exception, where the potential for exclusion from the Eurozone continues
to weigh on sentiment.
Signs that European markets are stabilising
While it is hard to draw conclusions from one quarter of data, there are signs that investment activity across Europe is
stabilising. JLL’s forecast for full-year 2015 is for a 15% decrease in EMEA investment volumes on 2014 in U.S. dollar
terms, which would reflect a modest gain in euro terms of some 2.5%.
Robust start to the year in Asia Pacific led by Japan
Asia Pacific is on track to achieve another record volume of transactions at about US$140 billion, translating to a 7%
year-on-year gain. The vigorous start to the year has been largely led by Japan, which accounted for half of the regional
volumes. Capital inflow into Japan continues to build, as evidenced by ongoing yield compression. In terms of asset
classes, commercial, retail and hotel are in favour, with robust interest from J-REITs and developers as well as unlisted
real estate funds. JLL expects investment sentiment to remain high in 2015, with investment volumes possibly
outperforming last year’s strong results.
Investor caution in China but domestic players to be more active
Transaction volumes in China were below expectations in Q1 at US$2.6 billion, down 13% on the same period last year.
Macro concerns around developers and an ongoing housing market correction continued to weigh on commercial
investment volumes. Logistics remains a preferred asset class with investors seeking platform deals as a result of
limited stock availability. In addition, sentiment in the core office sector is improving in Tier 1 or at the top-end of Tier 1.5
cities. China’s sovereign wealth fund (CIC) along with domestic insurers and finance companies are expected to be
active in 2015.
A slow start to the year in Australia but volumes to pick up
Australia surprised on the downside in Q1, but we expect volumes to pick up through the year with some sizeable deals
in the pipeline. Overseas investors, particularly from within Asia Pacific, are drawn by the weaker Australian dollar. With
the Reserve Bank of Australia signalling further interest rate cuts, the attractions of the weaker dollar are likely to persist
at least for the next few quarters.
Emerging Asian markets surge over 200% on higher risk-taking
Other non-core Asia Pacific markets ended the first quarter blazing on all fronts, recording US$3.2 billion in transaction
volumes, up 226% on the same quarter last year as investors move up the risk spectrum seeking higher returns on
improved global economic confidence. India was the standout market with volumes averaging US$1 billion per quarter
over the past six months on the back of rising investor sentiment. In terms of activity, private equity funds, in particular
opportunistic funds, have been prominent.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 12
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment – Quarterly Trends, 2007-2015
Source: JLL, April 2015
Prime Office Yields, 2010-2015
*Across 25 major office markets.
Source: JLL, April 2015
5.2
5.6
6.0
6.4
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
‘Mean’ Prime Office Yields*6.62%
5.36%
Yield Compression (bps)
%
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240Q
107
Q20
7
Q30
7
Q40
7
Q10
8
Q20
8
Q30
8
Q40
8
Q10
9
Q20
9
Q30
9
Q40
9
Q11
0
Q21
0
Q31
0
Q41
0
Q11
1
Q21
1
Q31
1
Q41
1
Q11
2
Q21
2
Q31
2
Q41
2
Q11
3
Q21
3
Q31
3
Q41
3
Q11
4
Q21
4
Q31
4
Q41
4
Q11
5
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Rolling Four-Quarter Average
US
$ bi
llion
s
205
107110100
113
7369666666
100
118120
159
204
190
119
91
110100
163
41 4335
108
125
146
211
142
162
175
231
155
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 13
Capital Values and Yields
Prime yields compress further
Prime office yields continued to compress during Q1, with Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris recording 25 basis point
declines, while Boston, New York, San Francisco, Washington DC, Tokyo and Sydney have shown compression of
10 basis points or more.
Yields for core primary office property are at record lows, yet spreads remain healthy and further yield compression is
likely in H1 2015. The beginning of a short-term interest rate hike in the U.S. is still considered likely in the third quarter,
which may create greater volatility in risk-free rates.
Steady capital value growth of 3%-5% in 2015
San Francisco and Boston have recorded the strongest capital value appreciation on prime assets, with growth of
close to 30% year-on-year. Other high-performers include New York, Madrid, Tokyo and Los Angeles.
Capital value appreciation of 3%-5% is projected for prime assets across 25 major office markets during 2015. Tokyo
and Madrid are expected to be the star performers.
Prime Offices – Annualised Capital Value Change, 2010-2015
Unweighted average of 25 major office markets across the globe
Source: JLL, April 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
% pa
23.5%
13.0%
2.8%
6.6% 7.0%8.2%
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 14
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Corporate Occupiers
Positive corporate sentiment but expansionary demand remains elusive
Corporate sentiment continues to be upbeat with confidence in the global economic outlook holding firm, despite
recognition of an emerging market slowdown and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Yet this optimism has so far failed to
deliver a clear upturn in leasing market momentum. Having finished 2014 strongly, global occupier markets remain
active but are, in the main, starved of large-scale expansionary demand as corporate revenues are bolstered through
M&A activity. A prolonged period of portfolio restructuring, often with associated net reductions in overall portfolios,
appears to be the path ahead for many corporates and, as a result, global leasing volumes are forecast to rise only
moderately over 2015.
A varied role for domestic occupiers
A more marked variation in the strategy and execution of domestic occupiers has been in evidence in global leasing
markets during Q1. In Asia, domestic companies are dominant in the demand profiles of local leasing markets.
Business model cost and agility present such companies with a competitive advantage over larger multinational
corporations and they have not been afraid to use it in changeable market conditions. In contrast, the lack of activity by
domestic occupiers has been a key aspect in the significant reduction of leasing volumes in Europe’s largest office
market, Paris, during Q1. While their reticence to act is founded on the French economic outlook and future policy
intentions, the contrast with Asia could not be starker.
Occupier and investor intentions lacking synchronicity
As markets improve in Asia, we have found landlords’ increasing optimism on asking rents for CBD buildings can stymie
leasing activity. Some landlords have been slow in acknowledging that office space remains extremely price-sensitive,
particularly for financial and business service occupiers. In a similar vein, the acute current shortages and limited
pipelines of quality office supply in Europe are driving strong increases in asking rents. This dynamic has been
threatening for the last 18 months but demand has yet to reach levels where this pinch point has become a reality across
the region, arguably with the exception of the London market. Again, the price sensitivity of many occupiers will serve to
either constrain or compromise more occupier decision-making over the medium term.
This same pricing pressure is apparent in the U.S. with average asking rents up by around 3%, but there is a contrasting
dynamic in many U.S. markets. The proliferation of cranes across the U.S. – construction volumes are double those of a
year ago - indicates the optimism of developers and investors, but is disconnected to moderating levels of demand. This
is no more apparent than in Houston, as 2 million square feet of new office space is being delivered each quarter into a
market where the dominant oil and gas occupiers are responding to changing operating conditions and scaling back their
growth plans.
Changing operational structures bring new markets into play
The portfolio housekeeping of major occupiers is creating some real impetus around shoring activity, with traditional and
emerging BPO markets seeing healthy levels of demand and decentralisation from core markets. Occupiers are
restructuring operations to build efficiency, to respond to regulatory pressure or to align operational activity to
appropriate cost profiles. This is notable in the finance sector where HSBC has recently followed Deutsche Bank in
committing to a sizeable new operation in Birmingham, UK. The cost profile of these operations, coupled with future
transport improvements that will bring a quicker connection between London and Birmingham (through HS2 – the UK’s
new high-speed rail network), will provide clear operational benefits to the banks. This follows on from increased
banking sector activity in ‘alternative’ U.S. markets such as Salt Lake City, Fort Lauderdale and Columbus, Ohio.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 15
Global Office Market Conditions Matrix*, 2015-2017
* Relates to conditions in the overall office market of a city. Conditions for prime CBD space may differ from the above. Source: JLL, April 2015
MARKET
Brussels Beijing
Frankfurt Hong Kong
London (West End) Mumbai
Madrid Shanghai
(Pudong)
Moscow Singapore
Paris Sydney
Stockholm
Dubai
Market 2015 2016 2017 Market 2015 2016 2017
Tokyo
Neutral Market
Landlord Favourable
Tenant Favourable
Market
Chicago
Los Angeles
New York
San Francisco
Toronto
Washington DC
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
2015 2016 2017
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 16
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Global Real Estate Health Monitor
Economy Real Estate Investment Markets Real Estate Occupier Markets
National
GDP
OECD
Leading
Indicator
City
Investment
Volumes
Capital
Value
Change
Prime
Yield Yield Gap
Rental
Change
Net
Absorption
Vacancy
Rate
Supply
Pipeline
Dubai 2.8% na 20% 2.3% 7.5% na 2.3% na 23.0% 15.7%
Frankfurt 2.4% 0.10 47% 8.0% 4.4% 417 0.0% 0.5% 10.2% 1.7%
Hong Kong 2.8% na 42% 1.0% 3.0% 145 3.4% 0.4% 4.1% 4.7%
London 2.8% -0.10 0% 11.9% 3.8% 218 11.9% 1.8% 4.8% 4.5%
Madrid 2.5% 0.20 238% 23.0% 4.8% 352 6.2% 1.5% 11.1% 1.5%
Moscow -5.6% -0.10 -29% -34.5% 10.5% -162 -23.6% 4.1% 17.0% 8.7%
Mumbai 7.5% 0.20 164% -2.2% 10.0% 207 -3.7% 6.9% 19.4% 14.3%
New York 2.7% -0.10 27% 24.5% 3.4% 147 3.3% 1.7% 10.0% 0.9%
Paris 1.2% 0.20 18% 12.0% 3.5% 308 -2.0% -0.7% 7.6% 3.7%
Sao Paulo -1.3% -0.20 102% -17.2% 9.8% na -5.0% 3.2% 22.5% 19.6%
Seoul 3.5% 0.20 18% 6.1% 4.8% 262 -0.3% 0.5% 11.5% 1.5%
Shanghai 6.6% -0.10 -15% 2.9% 5.9% 228 3.3% 11.0% 10.0% 40.4%
Singapore 3.3% na -19% 0.5% 4.2% 191 11.7% 5.0% 5.9% 12.6%
Sydney 2.7% 0.20 21% 10.5% 6.1% 378 1.3% 2.2% 9.5% 3.9%
Tokyo 0.8% 0.10 27% 19.7% 3.2% 280 6.4% 5.7% 3.0% 10.8%
Toronto 2.2% -0.10 23% -1.4% 5.1% 373 -1.4% 0.6% 9.8% 2.7%
Real estate data as at end Q1 2015
Definitions and Sources
National GDP: Change in Real GDP. National Projection, 2015. Source: Oxford Economics
OECD Leading Indicator: Composite Leading Indicator. Change in Index. Latest Month. Source: OECD
City Investment Volumes: Direct Commercial Real Estate Volumes. Metro Area Data. Rolling Annual Change. Source: JLL
Capital Value Change: Notional Prime Office Capital Values. Year-on-Year Change. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL
Prime Yield: Indicative Yield on Prime/Grade-A Offices. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL
Yield Gap: Basis Points that Prime Office Yields are above or below 10-year Government Bond Yields. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL, Datastream
Rental Change: Prime Office Rents. Year-on-Year Change. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL
Net Absorption: Annual Net Absorption as % of Occupied Office Stock. Rolling Annual. Source: JLL
Vacancy Rate: Metro Area Office Vacancy Rate. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL
Supply Pipeline: Metro Area Office Completions (2015-2016) as % of Existing Stock. Source: JLL
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 17
Office Markets
Office Demand Dynamics
Modest Q1 absorption rates disguise rising momentum in office leasing markets
Overall leasing volumes posted minimal gains during Q1 2015. However, this belies a global office leasing market that is
building in confidence as corporates across a broad range of industry sectors commit to new space and increasing
employee numbers.
Global office gross leasing volumes, at 8.4 million square metres in the first quarter, were marginally lower than Q4 2014
(-2%) and Q1 2014 (-4%):
The Asia Pacific region recorded the most notable improvement in Q1, with volumes 5% higher than a year
ago and net absorption up an impressive 31% year-on-year.
The United States had an unexpectedly quiet Q1; volumes were unchanged on Q4 2014 while net absorption
fell sharply to its lowest level in three years. First-quarter figures are likely to be an anomaly however, and
there are expectations of a significant build-up in net absorption over the remainder of the year.
In Europe, volumes fell by 3% year-on-year, but this is due to particularly weak markets in Paris and
Moscow, which typically account for one-third of European leasing activity. Excluding these two large
markets, there was a 7% year-on-year rise.
For the full-year 2015 we forecast that gross leasing volumes will be moderately higher than 2014 levels (+0%-5%). The
strongest uplift is expected in Asia Pacific (+15%), while leasing levels in the U.S. and Europe are likely to remain flat,
but with a notable shift in the composition of demand towards expansionary activity.
Expansion demand remains elusive
Expansion demand still remains elusive. Nonetheless we expect expansionary activity to mount during the remainder of
the year, with net absorption likely to be 20% higher for the full-year 2015 compared to 2014. Occupancy growth during
2015 is projected to be 25% higher in the U.S, up 20% in Asia Pacific and 15% higher in Europe. The focus will be on
CBD space, notably markets that have amenity, density and a diverse mix of office inventory to create dynamic
environments.
U.S. office market at a positive tipping point
Quarterly absorption volumes have been disappointing in the U.S, driven by space givebacks in New York, Washington
DC and a significant slowdown in Houston. Nonetheless, expansionary activity continues to mount and we anticipate a
spike in new absorption later in the year as the likes of Comcast, Facebook, Google, Fannie Mae and Indeed take on
new leases.
Key trends emerging in the U.S. leasing market include:
Technology is leading expansionary demand. Banking, professional and business services are making
significant comebacks, and even law firms have signed a few expansionary deals.
The U.S. West Coast is anticipated to see significant absorption as technology companies such as Google,
Salesforce and WeWork take large amounts of space in markets along the U.S. west coast.
Technology and finance sector growth in Boston and New York will push U.S. East Coast markets ahead in
occupancy gains
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 18
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Healthy momentum in Europe masked by underperformance in Paris and Moscow
European office leasing activity totalled 2.3 million square metres in Q1, which is 3% down on Q1 2014. While most
European office markets recorded positive growth, following a strong end to 2014, two of Europe’s largest office markets
(Paris and Moscow) dragged down the European aggregate with somewhat weaker performances. Indeed, in many
other European office markets demand was healthy in the first quarter, with leasing volumes pointing to a more solid
start to the year:
Although there have been reports of British firms scaling back hiring earlier than expected due to the uncertain
outcome of the general election, sentiment in the London leasing market remains upbeat, with volumes up
9% on Q1 2014.
In Southern Europe, the robust recovery of the largest Spanish office markets in the second half of 2014
continues apace, with Q1 leasing levels in Madrid and Barcelona up by 31% and 16% respectively on Q1
2014.
In Germany, most markets have maintained their strong performance from last year as the economy gains
more momentum and employment figures further improve. Four of the five largest markets saw an increase in
leasing volumes compared to last year, with aggregate levels up 8% on Q1 2014.
Many other Western European office markets also experienced growth in Q1, including Rotterdam (+94%),
Amsterdam (+37%) and Milan (+30%).
In CEE, Warsaw and Budapest put in strong first-quarter performances with leasing volumes up 48% and
18% respectively.
In the absence of further geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, demand for office space in Europe should pick up from
Q1 levels during 2015. Nonetheless, full-year 2015 take-up volumes are likely to be similar to those in 2014. There
remains a clear occupier preference for modern, highly accessible space to drive productivity and increase efficiency.
Selectively stronger office leasing activity in Asia Pacific
The 5% year-on-year increase in gross absorption in Asia Pacific in the first quarter came mostly from local corporates,
second-tier financial institutions, a select number of MNCs and technology-related firms:
India has seen vigorous growth in occupier activity (Bangalore witnessed the highest volume in the region).
Take-up strengthened in most Indian Tier I cities, driven by the expansion of IT and e-commerce firms.
China experienced sustained demand from domestic occupiers and select MNCs (e.g. professional services
firms). Shanghai was the standout market.
One-quarter of take-up in the Asia Pacific region related to pre-commitments to new completions (mainly in
Manila, Tokyo, Singapore).
Expansion demand picked up in Hong Kong (e.g. asset management, hedge funds and banks) and Tokyo
(from IT-related firms).
Sydney (supported by tech-related sectors) and Melbourne accounted for the bulk of take-up in Australia.
JLL is cautiously optimistic that office leasing volumes will continue to improve (by around 15%) in 2015, with China and
Asia Pacific’s financial centres remaining stable, and India, Australia and South East Asia markets providing some
uplift. Domestic financial firms, technology and offshoring should remain active.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 19
Global Office Demand – Net Absorption Trends, 2004-2015
24 markets in Europe; 25 markets in Asia Pacific; 44 markets in the U.S. Asia relates to Grade A only. Source: JLL, April 2015
Global Office Completions, 2000-2017
24 markets in Europe; 25 markets in Asia Pacific; 44 markets in the U.S. Asia relates to Grade A only. Source: JLL, April 2015
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mill
ions
sq
m
Pro
ject
ion
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(F)
2016(F)
2017(F)
U.S. Europe Asia Pacific
mill
ions
sq
m
Average
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 20
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Office Supply Trends
Office Construction
Construction is rising
Levels of new construction are steadily rising, with global new deliveries expected to be one-third higher in 2015 than
last year, at close to 15 million square metres. This is forecast to increase to close to 16.5 million square metres in
2016, representing the highest level since 2009.
Developer confidence in the United States
Increasing developer confidence in the U.S. has further boosted construction activity, although levels are still 22% below
the 2007 peak. Houston continues to have the highest levels of new construction, but the pace is slowing. Developers
are particularly focused on the tech hubs of Silicon Valley, Seattle and Austin; however, markets like Denver, Dallas
and Phoenix are also witnessing notable increases in new development.
Investors boost development in Europe
Office completions in Europe are expected to pick up considerably towards the end of the year, with full-year 2015
completions forecast to climb to 4.9 million square metres, the highest level since 2010. Increasing development levels
underline the strong demand for modern space in most markets. Development has also been fuelled by improving
funding conditions and growing investor appetite to enter into development rather than direct trading, given that
competition and pricing for prime office product has increased significantly in many markets.
Asia Pacific set for sharp rise in construction
Asia Pacific Grade A office stock additions were up 49% year-on-year in Q1 2015, with 43% of the total in India and
14% in China. At 6.1 million square metres in 2015, new construction volumes will be nearly 80% higher than in 2014.
Office Supply Pipeline – Major Markets, 2015-2016
Covers all office sub-markets in each city. Tokyo – CBD - 5 kus Source: JLL, April 2015.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Los AngelesNew York
Washington DCMadridSeoul
StockholmChicago
FrankfurtToronto
BrusselsSan Francisco
BostonParis
SydneyLondon
Hong KongMoscow
TokyoBeijing
SingaporeMumbai
DubaiSao Paulo
Mexico CityShanghai
Completions as % of existing stock
2015 2016
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 21
Office Vacancy
Vacancy rates projected to fall
The global office vacancy rate (across 98 markets) has remained stable at 12.7%, but is projected to decline steadily to
below 12.5% by the end of 2015, driven primarily by a further drop in U.S. vacancy rates. With a declining proportion of
readily-available space in Grade A buildings, tenants are facing increasing challenges in procuring space.
U.S. vacancy to fall below 15% by year-end
U.S. vacancy is at its lowest post-recession level at 15.6% and is expected to fall below 15% by year-end as corporate
expansion accelerates. Single-digit direct vacancy is a feature of Salt Lake City, New York, San Francisco and
Portland.
Canada’s office market sees vacancy rates rise
Canada’s national vacancy rate increased by 60 basis points and reached a cyclical high of 10% in Q1, a rate last seen
a full decade ago. Calgary is feeling the effects of falling oil prices and several oil companies have been forced to put
capital intensive projects on hold and cut their workforces. Meanwhile, Toronto also recorded negative net absorption in
the first quarter, pushing the city’s vacancy rate to 9.8%.
High levels of new supply in 2015 in major Latin American markets
For both Mexico City and Sao Paulo’s office markets, an onslaught of deliveries coming online will test their markets.
Total projected completions for 2015 and 2016 amount to nearly 20% of each city’s existing inventory – with the majority
of the volume to be delivered for both cities in 2015. Moreover, the great bulk of the incoming new space has yet to be
leased. Mexico City seems currently better positioned in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals and tenant demand to
absorb the additional space.
Europe vacancy falls
The European vacancy rate in the first quarter, at 9.5%, fell for the first time since late 2012. This was mainly due to a
decline in available space in Western Europe, where the rate decreased to 8.8% (falling below the 9% mark for the first
time since Q2 2009). The shortage of quality space in prime locations is intensifying, with the supply squeeze
particularly noticeable in markets such as London (4.8% vacancy), Munich (6.5%) and Hamburg (6.9%).
Dubai to see new supply in 2015
Despite high current vacancies (23%), much of the vacant space in Dubai is in secondary-quality buildings, many of
which are in strata-title ownership and of little interest to major corporate occupiers. The lack of high-quality space will
result in the delivery of a number of new office projects during 2015, some of which have been pre-leased.
Single-digit vacancy in Asia’s key markets
Most major Asian markets are still recording single-digit vacancy levels, with the lowest rates seen in the CBDs of Hong
Kong, Tokyo, Manila and Jakarta (<4%). The exceptions include the Shanghai decentralised market and most Indian
and Australian cities, where levels generally range between 10% and 20%. Regional vacancy has declined to 10.8%
but, with increasing new supply, it is likely to be pushed back over the 11% mark by year-end.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 22
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Office Vacancy Rates in Major Markets, Q1 2015
Regional vacancy rates based on 49 markets in the Americas, 24 markets in Europe and 24 markets in Asia Pacific. Covers all office submarkets in each city. All grades except Asia and Latin America (Grade A only). Tokyo relates to CBD – 5 kus. Source: JLL, April 2015
Global and Regional Office Vacancy Rates, 2009-2015
44 markets in the Americas, 24 markets in Europe, 25 markets in Asia Pacific. Grade A space vacancy only for Asian markets Source: JLL, April 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
Tor
onto
San
Fra
ncis
co
New
Yor
k
Mex
ico
City
Bos
ton
Los
Ang
eles
Chi
cago
Was
hing
ton
DC
Sao
Pau
lo
Lond
on
Par
is
Sto
ckho
lm
Bru
ssel
s
Fra
nkfu
rt
Mad
rid
Mos
cow
Tok
yo
Bei
jing
Hon
g K
ong
Sin
gapo
re
Syd
ney
Sha
ngha
i
Seo
ul
Mum
bai
Europe 9.5% Asia Pacific 10.8%Americas 15.1%%
Quarterly movement
Increased
Decreased
Stable
Global 12.7%
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q4
2009
Q2
2010
Q4
2010
Q2
2011
Q4
2011
Q2
2012
Q4
2012
Q2
2013
Q4
2013
Q2
2014
Q4
2014
Vac
ancy
Rat
e (%
) Americas
Asia Pacific
Europe
GLOBAL
17.9%
15.1%
14.4%
12.7%
11.9%
10.8%
11.9%
10.3%
9.5%
Q1
2015
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 23
Office Rental Trends
Rental growth still moving at a steady pace
Rental growth continues to move at a steady pace, with the annual rate of growth on prime office assets across 24
markets standing at just over 3%. Sustained global growth, job creation and the diversity of demand sectors will power
further growth in rents; over 4% per annum growth rate for the full-year 2015 is projected across the same 24 markets1:
The U.S. is seeing more consistent rental growth in 2015. Landlords are responding to rising demand by
aggressively increasing rents, with quarterly rental growth at 3.1%, the highest level in the current cycle.
Tech-rich cities, such as San Francisco and Boston, are now among the world’s top rental performers.
Net effective rents increased in most Asia Pacific markets in Q1, with average growth picking up to 0.6%
quarter-on-quarter (versus 0.2% in Q4 2014). Growth on an annual basis averages 2.6%. Tokyo and
Sydney are forecast to be the top-performing large markets in the region in 2015 but, following a strong 2014,
rents in Singapore will likely start correcting this year due to upcoming supply.
In Europe, a decline in Paris and Moscow’s prime rents dragged down the weighted European Office Index
by -0.6% in Q1 2015. Nonetheless, we expect European rental growth to pick up again in the quarters ahead
due to the combination of: an intensifying supply squeeze boosting rental values in some markets; a recovery
in markets such as Madrid; and a strong performance from most UK cities and the top German office markets
(led by Munich). London is likely to be the standout market in Europe in 2015. Moscow continues to see
downward pressure on prime rents, although there are expectations that rents will stabilise within the next
couple of quarters.
Prime Offices – Projected Changes in Values, 2015
*New York – Midtown, London – West End, Paris - CBD. Nominal rates in local currency. Source: JLL, April 2015
1 Excludes Moscow which, due to the sharp falls in rents, is distorting the average
+ 10%
+ 5-10%
+ 0-5%
- 0-5%
- 5-10%
Sydney, London*, Boston Chicago, Los Angeles, New York* San Francisco, Madrid, Beijing
Tokyo
Capital ValuesRental Values
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Dubai, Toronto, Washington DC, Mexico City Stockholm, Seoul, Paris* Brussels, Frankfurt
Mumbai, SingaporeSao Paulo
Tokyo, Madrid
London*, Sydney, BostonChicago, Los Angeles, New York* San Francisco, Seoul, Beijing
Paris*, Shanghai, FrankfurtDubai, Toronto, Washington DCMexico City, Stockholm, BrusselsHong Kong
Mumbai, Singapore
Sao Paulo
- 10-20% Moscow Moscow
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 24
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Prime Offices – Rental Change, 2010-2015
Prime office rental growth: unweighted average of 25 major markets. Source: JLL, April 2015
Prime Offices – Rental Clock, Q1 2014 v Q1 2015
Based on rents for Grade-A space in CBD or equivalent. U.S. positions relate to the overall market Source: JLL, April 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.9%
7.9%
1.9%1.2%
Ren
tal c
hang
e (y
-o-y
%)
4%
3.1%
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
Q1 2015
Rental Value
growth slowing
Rental Value
growth
accelerating
Rental Values
bottoming
out
Rental Values
falling
Q1 2014
Sao Paulo
New York
Stockholm
Hong Kong, Beijing
Berlin
Paris, Brussels, Istanbul
Washington DC
Dubai, Milan
Chicago
Moscow
Johannesburg
Shanghai, Houston
San Francisco
Dallas
London, Los AngelesTokyo, Boston
Rental Value
growth slowing
Rental Value
growth
accelerating
Rental Values
bottoming out
Rental Values
falling
Brussels, Paris, Madrid, Beijing
Hong Kong, Sydney
Singapore
Seoul
Boston, Los Angeles
Istanbul
Shanghai
Amsterdam
Johannesburg
London
Milan
Moscow
Chicago, Dubai Washington DC
Houston
Toronto
Mexico City
Sao
Paulo
Dallas
San Francisco
Berlin, Frankfurt
New York
Stockholm, Tokyo
Amsterdam
Frankfurt
Madrid, Sydney
Singapore
Seoul
Toronto
Mexico City
Mumbai
Mumbai
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 25
Retail Markets
U.S. retail markets pause, but stronger tailwinds gather
With only modest net absorption in Q1, the U.S. retail vacancy rate inched down to 6% and rents rose by a marginal
0.3%. Mall vacancy increased 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter and net absorption represented only one-third of total
new supply in Q1. Among U.S. shopping centre types, power centres are still witnessing the tightest overall market
conditions, registering total vacancy of 4.7% in Q1. Several standout markets, like Miami, New York, Houston, Dallas,
Fort Lauderdale, Boston and San Francisco, continue to experience the strongest growth conditions typical of a rising
market, as rents see assertive growth and vacancy levels continue to compress.
Positive retail sales growth outlook for Europe as confidence continues to improve
Consumer sentiment in Europe has reached its highest level since 2007 and the region’s retail sales are anticipated to
expand by 2.4% in 2015, driven by strong growth in the CEE and Germany. Sales growth up to 2017 is expected to
remain particularly robust in Turkey and the CEE. The outlook for Europe’s recovery markets has also improved
significantly, especially in Spain and Ireland.
Europe’s recovery markets outperform
During Q1, appreciable growth in prime high street rents was recorded in Dublin (+8.7%), Rome (+6.7%), Madrid
(+4.3%) and Milan (+2.7%), indicating strengthening retailer interest in Europe’s recovery markets. However, there was
a notable fall in rents in Bucharest (-7.7%), St. Petersburg (-4.5%) and Helsinki (-2.3%). Prime high street rents are
anticipated to grow robustly in 2015 in UK cities (notably London, Leeds, Birmingham and Manchester) and key
German cities (such as Munich and Hamburg).
International retailers target Japan, Australia and South East Asia
Greater China saw healthy demand maintained from F&B and lifestyle tenants in the first quarter, although luxury brands
are increasingly cautious, with Chanel, for example, recently cutting prices (and other brands are likely to follow suit).
Tokyo, Australia and South East Asia remain the target of international brands.
For the next 12 months, new-to-market foreign retailers and growth of inbound tourism (particularly from China) should
continue to support major Asia Pacific retail markets.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 26
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Prime Retail – Rental Clock, Q1 2015
Prime Industrial – Rental Clock, Q1 2015
Relates to prime space. U.S. positions relate to the overall market Source: JLL, April 2015
Rental Value
growth slowing
Rental Values
falling
Rental Value
growth
accelerating
Rental Values
bottoming
out
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
Delhi
Milan
Dubai
Mumbai, Washington DC
Los Angeles
Singapore, Hong Kong
Miami, New York
Houston, Boston
Paris
Shanghai, Beijing
Madrid
Sydney, Chicago
Berlin, San Francisco
Moscow
London
Tokyo
Rental Value
growth slowingRental Values
falling
Rental Values
bottoming
out
Warsaw
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
Rental Value
growth
accelerating
Amsterdam, Paris
Boston
Frankfurt
London, Chicago
Los Angeles
Singapore
Dallas
Shanghai
Tokyo, Hong Kong
New York, Atlanta, San Francisco
Madrid, Sydney
Beijing
Houston, Philadelphia
Moscow
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 27
Industrial Warehousing Markets
Realignment to omni-channel distribution boosts warehousing demand
There is significant pressure on companies to implement seamless omni-channel distribution services and this is
boosting warehousing demand across the globe. While occupational demand is healthy across all types of warehouse
space, the shift towards omni-channel distribution means a particular push on mega-sheds and smaller urban/urban
fringe distribution and sortation centres to support a seamless customer experience and, in particular, shorter delivery
times.
U.S. industrial reaches a cyclical ‘sweet spot’
Market conditions in the U.S industrial market remain particularly bullish, with vacancy finishing the first quarter at 6.8%,
a 10-year low. Fifteen of 50 U.S. markets had vacancies under 6.0%. Eight, including Seattle, Los Angeles and Salt
Lake City, had vacancies below 5%; rental growth in these markets is expected to strongly outpace the national average
this year.
Given active tenant requirements, nearly all U.S. markets have scenarios where their construction pipelines will be
unable to keep up with demand in 2015. However, certain markets which are leading development activity – such as the
Inland Empire – are setting the stage for likely vacancy increases moving into 2016.
Early signs suggest that the U.S. industrial market will continue 2014’s impressive momentum into 2015. Accelerating
global GDP growth, the high value of the U.S. dollar, a progressively recovering housing market and population growth
all favour the sector.
Build-to-suit development prevails in Europe
Construction activity in Europe continues to trend upwards, with full-year 2015 completion volumes likely to approach the
record 2008 levels. However, speculative development remains stubbornly absent. Excluding Russia, only 10% of
warehousing floorspace under construction is currently speculative and, despite the improved economic outlook, we do
not anticipate a significant return to speculative development in Europe this year.
Rental growth prospects brightening in Western Europe
Annual rental growth in Europe rose to 2.1% in Q1 2015, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter. Growth was driven
entirely by Western European markets with year-on-year increases recorded in London (+11.5%), Manchester (+4.8%),
Dublin (+4.2%), Barcelona (+4.0%), Antwerp (+2.2%), Madrid (+2.2%), Munich (+1.6%) and Birmingham (+0.7%).
By contrast, they fell by 17.9% in Moscow.
Continued robust occupational activity and an improving economic environment are expected to support rental growth of
2.1% per annum in Western European markets and 1.1% per annum in CEE markets over the five-year horizon.
Stable warehousing demand in Asia Pacific
Third-party logistics companies buoyed leasing activity across Asia in Q1, although demand remained below trend in
Australia. The largest quarterly rental growth was seen in Tokyo (4.2%) and Hong Kong (2.2%) on healthy demand
and high occupancy rates, but rents were mostly stable in China, Singapore and Australia.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 28
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Hotel Markets
Strong start to 2015 for global hotel investment market
The first quarter of 2015 got off to a robust start for the hotel investment market, with transaction volumes rising by more
than 80% to US$20.4 billion. The sharp increase in deal volume was overspill from the previous two quarters’ activity
and the Q1 figure equates to 30% of the US$68 billion we expect to transact during 2015. Investment funds and private
equity firms were the most active buyers during the first quarter, securing 37% of all deals, followed by hotel operators
(19%) and REITs (15%).
Hotel Investment Volumes, Q1 2015 v Q1 2014
US$ billions
Q1 2015 Q1 2014 % change
Americas 11.4 6.1 87%
EMEA 7.5 3.4 122%
Asia Pacific 1.5 1.8 -18%
Total 20.4 11.3 80.7%
Figures include hotel property transactions of US$5 million and above and exclude note sales, land sales, foreclosures and recapitalisations.
Source: JLL, April 2015
EMEA posts strongest growth
EMEA saw the strongest growth of all global regions, up 122% to US$7.5 billion. Portfolio deals represented 73% of total
volumes compared to 27% by single-asset sales. Investment into the UK hotel market accounted for 36% of all EMEA
deals, closing the quarter at US$2.7 billion. Appetite for UK hotel portfolios remains strong, highlighted by private equity
firm, Lone Star, completing a £1 billion acquisition. The largest portfolio deal to close in EMEA during the first quarter
was the sale of Groupe du Louvre by Starwood Capital to Shanghai-based Jin Jiang Hotels for US$1.5 billion.
EMEA is firmly on track to achieve the US$24.7 billion in hotel transactions forecast for 2015, having already secured
30% in the first quarter.
Offshore capital driving growth in Americas
The Americas experienced robust growth in Q1, with investment volumes increasing almost 90% to US$11.4 billion. The
bulk of buyers came from investment funds and private equity firms as they continue to pursue hotel portfolios. Offshore
capital is also driving significant hotel transaction volumes, especially in key markets such as New York, Los Angeles
and Miami. One of the most notable deals to date in 2015 has been the sale of the Waldorf Astoria New York for
US$1.95 billion.
Japan shines in Asia Pacific
Hotel transaction volumes in Asia Pacific reported double-digit declines during the first quarter, down 18% to US$1.5
billion. Despite this, and accounting for almost 55% of all deals in the region, the spotlight remained firmly on Japan with
its volumes up 108% to US$808 million. We expect investor interest to remain buoyant in Japan throughout the year,
led by an increase in debt and also investor confidence in hotel performance growth.
In second place in volume terms, Australia secured 20% of all deals in the region at US$304 million and is also forecast
to remain an active market during 2015. The most significant deal to date in 2015 has been the sale of the Australia’s
most popular snow holiday destination - Perisher Ski Resort –for US$135 million.
Positive outlook tempered with caution
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 29
It has been an exceptional start to the year for the global hotel investment market driven by activity in the U.S. where the
outlook remains very positive. Q2 will be muted in comparison and, while the industry continues to attract attention from
global investors, there are some regional variances and confidence is tempered with caution evident in some quarters of
the global economy and the rapid growth in supply in some markets, which is clearly ahead of demand growth.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 30
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Residential Markets
Demographic dividends for U.S. multifamily sector, but mounting new supply
The apartment market in the United States has continued to outperform. It managed to close 2014 maintaining its very
high occupancy rate and rental growth in the 3.5%-4% range. Economic growth and evolving demographics have
helped to sustain strong demand levels to the multifamily rental segment, as have structural changes in the national for-
sale housing market.
Despite the much larger volume of completions and still ongoing build-up of the supply pipeline, national vacancy has
held exceptionally low at the 4% level as 2015 opened. Some modest further declines in vacancy are possible until late
2015 or early 2016, at which time the vacancy rate is likely to have reached its cyclical low in the high 3% range.
As new project deliveries increase even further in 2016, reaching a cyclical peak in 2017, demand for units will begin to
fall short. Effective rental growth is forecast to decelerate from the mid to high 3% range in 2014 to the low 3% band in
2015, followed by further progressive annual moderation in 2016 and 2017. Even so, the cumulative performance for
the sector for this entire decade is expected to be a historically robust one.
UK market moderates
The UK residential market has continued to show signs of moderation in both activity and pricing in the run-up to the
general election in May. This is particularly the case in prime locations exposed to a proposed 'mansion tax', where
activity is down by around 35%. However, the mainstream market is very well-supported in economic terms and it is
widely expected that we will see mid single-digit price growth nationally over 2015, irrespective of the election outcome.
Investment and development activity remains buoyant, with still strong demand from domestic and international capital
keen to obtain greater exposure to the sector. The first multifamily style assets in the UK will complete later this year,
marking a watershed moment in the evolution of the asset class in the UK.
Demand pressures in Paris
The residential property market in Paris is currently subject to considerable pressure from demand with a lack of new
supply/developments. Prices have held up despite the weak economic climate, as shown in limited per annum drops of
1.1% in Paris intra-muros and 1.4% at the regional level. The Paris region as a whole is considerably more resistant to
the slowdown than the rest of the country in terms of pricing. A few domestic institutional investors (SNI, Caisse des
Dépôts) and foreign investors (Patrizia, Akelius) have demonstrated a renewed interest in the sector, seeking long-term
investments to take advantage of potential capital gains. The market is expected to continue to grow from its circa €3
billion per annum base, subject to stock availability.
Robust investor demand in Germany, Sweden and Netherlands
The residential transaction market in Germany started the year with a bang with Deutsche Annington’s purchase of key
competitor GAGFAH. This will result in a residential property company with around 350,000 apartments and a market
capitalisation of almost €12 billion. Even without this merger, the quarterly transaction volume would have been around
€2.9 billion, still around 20% above the five-year average.
Market activity in Germany is dominated by re-sales and portfolio rationalisations evidenced by the second largest deal,
the sale of a Berlin-based residential portfolio with 5,800 apartments owned by Deutsche Wohnen AG to the Israeli
opportunistic investor, ADO Properties. Demand for development projects and new-build apartment investments in the
major cities remains robust; €340 million was invested in residential building projects still under construction in the first
quarter, compared to €230 million in Q1 2014.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 31
After a very strong 2014 for investment in Sweden’s residential sector, the first quarter of 2015 continued in the same
vein. Demand remains high for investment properties as well as development rights at various stages of execution.
Stock availability, particularly for quality assets, is still a challenge for many investors. However, there have been two
changes that will stimulate new construction of rental units – relieved noise regulations for new construction and
investment aid for the production of small apartments. Both are expected to foster further development activity and new
opportunities for investors.
Investment volumes in the residential market in the Netherlands showed a strong start of the year. Total investment
volume amounted to €710 million, which is a 189% increase year-on-year. The largest transaction was the acquisition
of Round Hill Capital who bought the WIF (Wooninvesteringsfonds) portfolio comprising 3,786 units – the portfolio traded
for approximately €365 million.
Dubai residential market reaches cyclical peak
Following two years of unsustainable price growth and fears of another bubble, prices and rents have stabilised in the
Dubai residential market over the past six months. Average prices declined by around 2% in Q1 with projections that
prices will fall by up to 10% during the full-year 2015, before increasing again from 2017.
Policy restrictions remain in place in several Asian markets
Policy restrictions have remained in place in various Asia markets to curb speculation. Nevertheless, China has seen
improved buying sentiment after loosening of lending requirements in late March. End-user demand in Hong Kong has
maintained its strength despite further tightening of mortgage lending rules in late February.
We anticipate steady or slightly stronger sales activity in most Asian markets this year, buoyed by prevailing low interest
rates. Prices are likely to be mostly stable over the next 12 months.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 32
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Key Investment Transactions in Q1 2015
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Country City Property Sector
Sales price
US$m Comments
Belgium Brussels Gateway Office 158 Belgian REIT Befimmo has agreed to acquire the 34,000 sq.m. Gateway office project at Brussels airport from developers Codic and Immobel. Deloitte Services and Investments has already signed an 18-year lease for the entire building.
Czech Republic Prague Palladium Shopping Centre
Retail 642
Union Investment has acquired a majority stake in the shopping centre for its open-ended real estate fund UniImmo: Deutschland. Completed in October 2007 with a gross floor area of 115,000 sq m, of which 41,000 sq m is dedicated to retail and 18,000 sq m to office use, the almost fully-let Palladium is the largest shopping centre in Prague's central retail district.
France Paris Qwartz Shopping Centre
Retail 225
French REIT/SIIC Altarea Cogedim has bought out its co-investor Orion Capital in this regional shopping centre in Greater Paris. According to Altarea, the deal was based on a 100% valuation of around €400m. Altarea and Orion Capital were previously 50/50 partners.
Germany Various Supermarket portfolio
Retail 307 Eurocastle Investment Ltd has sold 107 retail properties totalling approximately 229,000 sq m located throughout Germany to Patrizia Immobilien AG for €286m.
Italy Milan Porta Nuova Mixed 1,014 Hines, on behalf of a consortium of initial investors, has agreed for Qatar Holding LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), to acquire the remaining 60% interest in the firm’s Porta Nuova development.
Multiple Various
Groupe du Louvre and Louvre Hotels Group
Hotels 1,455
Starwood Capital Group has completed the sale of the 90,000-room Groupe du Louvre and Louvre Hotels Group to Shanghai-based Jin Jiang International Hotels Development Co., Ltd. Jin Jiang established a partnership with Louvre some time ago, building brand awareness across European and Chinese markets. Jin Jiang already owns or operates 1,700 hotels and 250,000 rooms across Asia.
Multiple Various Jurys Inn Portfolio
Hotels 1,026
Private equity investor Lone Star Funds has purchased the Jurys Inn hotel chain from Mount Kellett Capital Management. The acquisition includes the brand, along with an estate of 25 hotels in the UK, five in Ireland and an outpost in Prague. Of the estate, three hotels in London and at Heathrow Airport are operated under Hilton flags, a deal agreed a year ago in a bid to enhance international guest numbers.
Multiple Various Bewleys and Moran Hotels
Hotels 515 Dalata Hotel Group has purchased 10 hotels with over 2,500 rooms that operate as Bewleys Hotels and Moran Hotels from T&S Taverns Ltd. The hotels are located in Ireland and the UK.
Netherlands, France
Various Corio Klepierre Shopping Centre Portfolio
Retail 1,127
Corio has sold 10 shopping centres in the Netherlands and one in France. The buyer of the Dutch portfolio is a JV between New York-based private equity group Mount Kellett and Dutch Sectie5 Investments, which structures high-yield retail real estate funds. The purchaser of the French asset, in the Paris suburbs, was not disclosed.
Spain Madrid Gran Vía 32 Mixed 451
Amancio Ortega, through his investment vehicle Grupo Pontegadea, has bought this prime retail and office building from international investors, led by advisor Drago Capital, which include Canada’s PSP Investments, Dutch pension fund APG and British insurer Phoenix Group.
Sweden Skärholmen Skärholmen Centrum
Retail 420 Grosvenor, backed by Finnish insurer Varma, has bought one of Sweden’s largest shopping centres from the Royal Bank of Scotland. The purchase price was not announced but is estimated to be in the region of US$420m.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 33
Asia Pacific
Country City Property Sector
Sales
price
US$m Comments
Australia Sydney Liberty Place Office 189
Blackstone Property Partners Asia and Canadian real estate fund manager Ivanhoé Cambridge have jointly acquired a 25% stake in Liberty Place from LaSalle Investment Management. The 42-storey office tower complex is located in the heart of Sydney on Pitt Street through Castlereagh Street. Ivanhoé Cambridge has US$44bn in real estate under management and Liberty Place is its first direct investment in Australia.
Australia Various Arena Portfolio Office 196
Anton Capital has purchased the office portfolio located in various locations in Australia from Arena Investment Management. The five-asset portfolio includes the Victoria Police Centre at 637 Flinders Street, Melbourne and Customs House in Fremantle.
China Beijing EC Mall Retail 401
The Link Real Estate Investment Trust (The Link REIT), Hong Kong’s first listed REIT and Asia’s largest, has made its first investment into mainland China with the acquisition of a shopping mall in Beijing. The mall is well-positioned to capitalise on the growing spending power of local residents of Zhongguancun, which is often referred to as ‘China’s Silicon Valley’.
India Chennai Latter's Business Park
Office 193
U.S.-based private equity fund New Vernon Capital has acquired Shapoorji Pallonji's 51% stake in the Chennai business park. New Vernon Capital, which already had a 49% equity stake in the office asset, exercised its buy-back option on the back of growing investor sentiment in India. The private equity investor now has 100% ownership of the asset.
Japan Kyoto Aeon Mall Kyoto
Retail 180
In a related-entity deal, AEON REIT Investment Corporation has purchased the retail mall from its parent Aeon Mall Corporation for JPY 21bn. Aeon Mall Corporation purchased this property in 2013 from Shimizu Corporation. The mall was completed in June 2010, has a total lease area of 50,000 sq m and is located close to Kyoto Station.
Japan Kyoto Rihga Royal Hotel Kyoto
Hotels 86 The 482-room hotel has been sold by RIHGA Royal Hotels to private equity firm Fortress Investment Group.
Japan Multiple Granvista Hotels & Resorts
Hotels Undisclosed The Granvista Hotels & Resorts portfolio of eight hotels has been sold by Regional Economy Vitalization Corporation of Japan (REVIC) to The Sankei Building Company and J-Will Partners Company for an undisclosed price.
Japan Tokyo Meguro Gajoen Office 1,175 Mori Trust has sold this asset to LaSalle Investment Management backed by China Investment Corporation in a JV deal for JPY 140bn. The property was originally acquired from Lone Star Funds in 3Q 2014 for JPY 130bn.
Japan Tokyo Tokyo Square Garden
Office 798
In a related-entity deal, Tokyo Tatemono Company Limited has purchased Tokyo Square Garden from its special purpose vehicle for JPY 95bn. The office building was completed in March 2013, comprises 24 storeys and four basement floors, and is located in the heart of the Yaesu area, close to Tokyo Station.
Japan Tokyo Aoyama Building
Office 386
GreenOak Real Estate has purchased this office building from Mitsubishi Jisho Investment Advisors. GreenOak is a Tokyo-based investment fund formed by former executives of Morgan Stanley and has been investing predominantly in mid and smaller-sized office buildings in Tokyo’s CBD.
Japan Tokyo GranTokyo South Tower
Office 326
Goldman Sachs Asset Management has acquired a portion of the property from Mitsubishi Estate. The NOI yield is estimated to be around 2.6%, which is one of the most aggressive cap rates for Tokyo office transactions in recent years.
Japan Tokyo
Former Fukagawa Governmental Warehouse
Industrial 253
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has sold the former Fukagawa Governmental Warehouse to Daiwa House Industry. Three bids were submitted for the industrial building which was transacted at a local price of JPY 30bn.
Japan Tokyo Namikikan Retail 210
Ehime-based Imabari Shipbuilding Co., Ltd has acquired the asset from Elliot Advisors. Imabari Shipbuilding has set up two separate asset management companies for this acquisition. The property is located in the heart of the Ginza shopping district, which is recognised as the most prestigious retail precinct in Japan.
Japan Tokyo
Aoyama Bell Commons & Kita Aoyama Tees Building
Retail 204
Mitsubishi Estate has purchased the property, located on the fringe of Aoyama district and next to Omotesando and Harajuku retail districts, from Angelo, Gordon & Co. The buyer is to redevelop the property into a mixed-use retail and office development.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 34
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Country City Property Sector
Sales
price
US$m Comments
Japan Tokyo Shibuya Sakuragaoka Square
Office 143
Mitsubishi Estate has acquired the office property from Sapporo Real Estate. The office building is occupied by TAC, one of the biggest preparation school networks in Japan, and is located near Shibuya station, one of the largest train hubs in Tokyo’s CBD.
Japan Yokohama Queen's Square Yokohama
Office 252
SC Realty Private REIT has acquired a portion of the property from Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing. Queen's Square Yokohama consists of three office towers and a hotel tower, with SC Realty Private REIT purchasing a 25% stake in two office buildings and the hotel.
Malaysia Selangor Tropicana City Mall and Office Tower
Mixed 149
In a de-gearing exercise, Tropicana Corporation Berhad has sold the Tropicana City Mall and Office Tower to CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust for RM 540m. The property is located in Petaling Jaya, Selangor and comprises a four-storey shopping mall with three basement floors, along with a 12-storey office building.
Singapore Singapore AXA Tower Office 863
A consortium led by Perennial Real Estate Holdings (PREH) has acquired AXA Tower in downtown Singapore. PREH is a Singapore-based developer, owner and manager of properties, most of which are in China and Singapore. PREH has purchased a 31.2% equity stake in the building while HPRY1 Holdings, a shareholder of PREH, has also bought a 10.1% interest in the tower.
Singapore Singapore Hotel Grand Chancellor Singapore
Hotels 183
Following an EGM, Hotel Grand Central has confirmed the sale of Hotel Grand Chancellor Singapore to Canali Logistics for SGD 248m. The 328-room hotel, located in the Little India neighbourhood, was opened in 2010 after Hotel Grand Central had successfully tendered for the land in 2007.
Singapore Singapore Capri by Fraser Changi City
Hotel 150
A unit of Frasers Centrepoint Limited has acquired Capri by Fraser, Changi City for SGD 203m from Ascendas Frasers Private Limited, an equal JV between Ascendas Land (Singapore) and Frasers Centrepoint. The hotel has 313 rooms and sits on land with a lease term balance of about 54 years.
Americas
Country City Property Sector
Sales
price
US$m Comments
Brazil Sao Paulo Mais Shopping Largo 13
Retail 26 Brazilian owner Bradesco Asset Management has sold a 40% interest in the over 13,000 sq m retail asset to Israel-based investor Gazit-Globe.
Canada Toronto Loblaws Industrial 66 REIT Choice Properties has acquired the 86,000 sq m warehouse asset located in the Pickering submarket from corporate owner Loblaw Companies at a reported 6.5% initial yield.
Canada Vancouver 1550 Alberni Street
Office 38 Property firm Westbank Projects has purchased the 9,300 sq m CBD office building from Wicklow West Holdings.
Mexico Mexico City Utah Office Office 67 Mexican REIT Fibra Uno has acquired the office asset located in the Bosques de las Lomas area at a reported 8.8% initial yield.
Mexico Guadalupe Rockwell Automation
Industrial 58 Macquarie Mexican REIT (MMREIT) has purchased the industrial facility on Av. Frisa from U.S. REIT Ridge Property Trust at a reported 9% initial yield.
U.S. Chicago 58-104 East Oak Street
Retail 176 Spanish investor Pontegadea has purchased the 5,400 sq m urban retail asset in the Gold Coast neighbourhood from DRW Trading.
U.S. Houston 1301 Fannin Office 150 Amerimar Properties has acquired the 74,000 sq m CBD office tower from Griffin Properties.
U.S. Key West
Waldorf Astoria Casa Marina Resort Key West
Hotels Undisclosed JLL has advised Blackstone on the sale of the 311-room resort to Hilton Worldwide. In a concurrent transaction, Hilton Worldwide has also acquired the 150-room Waldorf Astoria The Reach Resort Key West.
U.S. Las Vegas Showcase Mall III
Retail 140 Unilev Capital has sold the 9,000 sq m retail asset on the Strip to Nakash Holdings.
U.S. Los Angeles Dreamworks Animation
Industrial 185 Studio DreamWorks Animation has sold its over 33,000 sq m property on Flower Street in Glendale to SunTrust Banks.
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 35
Country City Property Sector
Sales
price
US$m Comments
U.S. Miami Beach The Royal Palm Miami Beach
Hotels 278 Acting on behalf of KSL Resorts, JLL has sold the 393-room hotel to U.S.-based REIT Chesapeake Lodging Trust.
U.S. Multiple Equity Inns Portfolio
Hotels 1,808
Affiliates of the Whitehall Real Estate Funds have sold the 116-strong Equity Inns Portfolio to ARC Hospitality Trust. The portfolio includes 13,744 rooms across 31 states in the U.S. franchised by Hilton Worldwide, Marriott International and InterContinental Hotels Group.
U.S. New York 1095 Sixth Ave. Office 2,200 Caisse de Dépôt has acquired the 96,000 sq m Midtown office tower from Blackstone.
U.S. New York Waldorf Astoria New York
Hotels 1,950
Hilton Worldwide has completed the sale of the 1,413-room Waldorf Astoria to China-based Anbang Insurance Group. The hotel has been owned by Hilton for 65 years and, as part of the terms of sale, Hilton Worldwide will continue to operate the hotel under a 100-year management agreement.
U.S. San Francisco 50 Fremont Street
Office 629 Institutional giant TIAA-CREF has sold the 76,000 sq m South Financial District office tower to technology industry tenant Salesforce.
U.S. Washington, DC Arch Square Retail 109 Swiss investor AFIAA has purchased this more than 5,000 sq m urban retail property from property firm McCaffery Interests at a reported 3.5% initial yield.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 36
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
Illustrative Office Occupational Transactions in Q1 2015
Europe
Country City Property Tenant Industry Sector
Floorpsace
sq m
France Paris Rue Joseph Monier (Rueil Malmaison) Peugeot SA - Headquarters Automotive 15,049
France Paris Doublon 9130, Rue Lafayette (CBD) Richemont Holding France Luxury Goods 12,000
France Paris Papillon et Oasis, Avenue de Quebec (Villebon sur Yvette)
GE Energy Power Conversion France
Engineering 10,718
Germany Berlin GSW Hochhaus, Charlottenstrasse Rocket Internet ITES 22,000
Germany Frankfurt Windmühlstrasse Deutsche Vermögensberatung (DVAG)
Banking & Financial Services 31,400
Germany Hamburg Axel Spinger Passage, Caffamacherreihe Bezirksamt Hamburg-Mitte Public Administration 32,000
Germany Munich Landsberger Strasse Stadt München Public Administration 10,000
UK London 6 Pancras Square (West End) Google ITES n/a
UK London 1 New Street Square (City) Deloitte Banking & Financial Services 23,736
UK London Moor House (City) WeWork Construction & Real Estate 15,607
Russia Moscow LeFORT (Decentralised) General Electric Industrial / Financial Services 7,527
Russia Moscow Amber Plaza (Within TTR) ING Bank Banking & Financial Services 5,025
Asia Pacific
Country City Property Tenant Industry Sector
Floorpsace
sq m
Australia Melbourne 316-364 Elizabeth Street (CBD) NBN Co Limited Telecommunications 4,647
Australia Sydney 19 Martin Place (CBD) Sparke Helmore Law 5,100
China Beijing China Central Place (CBD) Epson Electronics 6,500
China Hong Kong One Harbour Square (Kowloon East) OOCL Shipping & Logistics 5,100
China Shanghai 100 Bund Square (Puxi) China Minsheng Investment Banking & Financial Services 20,000
India Delhi DLF Building 14, Tower C & D (NH-8) EXL Business Services 9,500
India Mumbai Winchester (East Suburbs) Housing.com E-Commerce / Construction & Real Estate
14,000
Global Market Perspective, Second Quarter 2015
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015. All Rights Reserved 37
Country City Property Tenant Industry Sector
Floorpsace
sq m
Japan Tokyo Shinagawa Season Terrace (Minato-ku) Fujitsu Systems East Limited ITES 15,000
Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Capital Square Office Tower 2 (CBD) AIA Banking & Financial Services 12,500
South Korea Seoul Three IFC (Yeouido) IBM ITES 29,216
Americas
Country City Property Tenant Industry Sector
Floorpsace
sq m
Brazil Rio de Janeiro R. Assembleia, 100 Infraero Aviation / Public Administration 6,286
Brazil Sao Paulo Av. das Nações Unidas, 17891 Unisys ITES 5,730
Canada Mississauga 6985 Financial Drive Maple Leaf Foods Manufacturing 16,722
Canada Toronto 310-320 Front Street W TD Bank Banking 21,368
Canada Vancouver 468 Terminal Avenue Canada Revenue Agency Government 11,117
Mexico Mexico City Félix Cuevas No. 446 AXA Banking & Financial Services 21,419
Mexico Mexico City Eje 5 Norte BBVA Bancomer Banking & Financial Services 6,738
U.S. Chicago 1200 Lakeside Drive Baxalta Pharmaceuticals 24,229
U.S. New York 200 Park Avenue MetLife Banking & Financial Services 39,948
U.S. New York 85 Broad Street WeWork Professional & Business Services 21,821
U.S. Northern Virginia 1215 S Clark Street U.S. Marshals Service Public Administration 34,467
U.S. Philadelphia 1800 Arch Street Comcast Media 35,024
U.S. Seattle-Bellevue 1101 Dexter Avenue N Facebook ITES 25,405
U.S. Washington DC 1150 15th Street NW Fannie Mae Banking & Financial Services 65,032
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics discussed, which are inherently unpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete. Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements. Advice we give to clients in particular situations may differ from
the views expressed in this report. No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report