joint research centre - european commission · 2017-09-14 · integration understanding the data...

The European Commission’s science and knowledge service

Joint Research Centre

The Challenge of Migration Data

Michele Vespe, Marlene Alvarez Alvarez

Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography (KCMD), European Commission

6-8 September 2017, Senec, Slovakia

Outline

• Introduction

• Data on International Migration – why good data are needed?

• Data gaps

• Data integration

• Case studies

• Innovative data sources & Big Data

Introduction

Knowledge

Uptake

Partner- ships

Better data & analytics

Making sense of information

Anticipation & foresight

Tailor-made evidence

New knowledge

The need

• Introduction • Data on International Migration • Data gaps • Data integration • Case studies • Innovative data sources & Big Data

The European Commission's Knowledge Centre for Migration and Demography

EU The European Agenda on Migration explicitly highlights the need for more and better use of information in the areas of smuggling, return, root causes of irregular migration, border management and job matching.

UN Agenda 2030 for sustainable development

NY Declaration “We recognize the importance of improved data collection, particularly by national authorities, and will enhance international cooperation to this end, including through capacity-building, financial support and technical assistance. Such data should be disaggregated by sex and age and include information on regular and irregular flows, the economic impacts of migration and refugee movements, human trafficking, the needs of refugees, migrants and host communities and other issues.“

Global Compacts


Migration data - policy context

Types of migration data

1. Census

2. Administrative data

3. Surveys

4. Operational data

5. Research

Frequency

10y

Annual

Ad-hoc

Monthly; daily

Ad-hoc

Aggregation/features/reliability/…


Limitations of existing migration data

Working with the data

Accessibility/visibility

Confidentiality

Integration

Understanding the data

Uncertainty

Collection methodology

Representativeness

Consistency

Improving the data

Disaggregation (age, sex, education,

status…)

Timeliness/readiness

Refresh rate

Spatial Resolution

Coverage (space-time)

Missing data?


KCMD Initiatives

To make data available in a single place, and help making sense of them enabling:

• Better awareness of the existing data and identification of gaps* by theme (migration flows, minors, socio-economics, sub-national)

• Improved understanding of the current situation on migration through the analysis of the dynamics of variables and their correlation

• Analysis of the potential impact of proven determinants of migration at national and regional levels, and anticipate future migration trends through better evidence based scenarios

• Providing scientific evidence e.g. for the better targeting of aid funds for migration and related policies

*Gaps: datasets discovery, quality, missing and fragmented data, analysis capacity


KCMD Initiatives

Fragmented &

scattered data

Discovered, filtered &

quality checked

catalogue of data

sources

Pre-processed

data access &

visual analytics

KCMD DATA CATALOGUE

KCMD DYNAMIC DATA HUB


KCMD Data Catalogue

To help policy makers, researchers and stakeholders to discover and

use data on migration https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/catalogue

~120 datasets


https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/catalogue

https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/catalogue

https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/migration/ap

p/index.html

- Recommended browser: Google Chrome

- No need to login, the Hub is open

- Read and accept disclaimer

This symbol throughout the slides invites you to explore and interact with

the data using the Dynamic Data Hub KCMD Dynamic Data Hub


https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/migration/app/index.html

https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/migration/app/index.html

Data on International Migration why good data are needed?

World:

3.3% in 2015


Global Migration Trend:

is this a period of unprecedented migration?

Sources: - migration stocks, UNDESA - population, World Bank


Global Migration Trend:

is this a period of unprecedented migration?

• The highest number of migrants are Asians (99.5 million), moving mostly within Asia (59.4 million)

• About 50% of African migrants (32.6 million) move within Africa (16.4 million)

• The highest migration rates are intra-Europe (3.9% from EU-28 to EU-28; and 4.3% from rest-Europe to rest-Europe) and from Latin America to Northern America (3.9%)

Source: UNDESA Produced by the KCMD

Migration stocks vs total population

Sources: - migration stocks, Eurostat - population, Eurostat

EU28:

10.7% in 2016 including intra-EU mobility


Immigrant as % of total population

Sources: - migration stocks, Eurostat - population, Eurostat

EU28:

6.9% in 2016 Third Country Nationals only


Where do the majority of immigrants come from?

Explore other countries using the Dynamic Data Hub in 2015

Source: - migration stocks, UNDESA


The countries of origin vary amongst European countries

Sourc

e:

UN

DESA

Pro

duced b

y t

he K

CM

D

Where do the majority of immigrants come from?


How % of immigrants population has changed in the past years?

Sources: - migration stocks, UNDESA

% annual increase immigrant population between 2010 and 2015


Data Gaps

Data Mapping

Coverage expressed as number of origin-destination pairs

As an example, stocks of migrants by country of birth in Spain (sources Eurostat, OECD, UNDESA, and World Bank) highlight temporal gaps the different datasets

→

Data on migration are fragmented, incomplete and scattered.

Knowledge and awareness of availability, geographic and temporal coverage of the datasets is a preliminary and fundamental step to provide solid evidence.

←Example of migration stocks and flows data map

[produced using the Dynamic Data Hub]


Irregular Migration Data

Data source Description Frequency Coverage

Frontex1 Detections of irregular border crossings Monthly EU land and sea ext.

borders

International organization for

Migration (IOM)2 Mixed migration flows in the Mediterranean and beyond Monthly EU land and sea routes

UNHCR3 UNHCR refugees operational data portal Monthly Mediterranean situation

Eurostat – asylum applications4

Asylum and first-time asylum applications, by citizenship,

age and sex, including unaccompanied minors

(migr_asyapp)

Monthly EU–European Free Trade

Association (EFTA)

Eurostat – asylum decisions Decisions by citizenship, age, sex and type of status

(migr_asydec) Yearly EU–EFTA

Eurostat – recognition rate statistics5 First-instance decisions by outcome and recognition rates Quarterly EU–EFTA

Eurostat – enforcement of

immigration legislation

Third-country nationals refused entry at the external

borders (migr_eirfs), found to be illegally present

(migr_eipre) and ordered to leave (migr_eiord)

Yearly EU–EFTA

[1] See http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/migratory-routes-map/ [2] See http://migration.iom.int/europe/ [3] See https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations [4] See http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database [5] See http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_quarterly_report

There are no official datasets that measure directly irregular migration and irregular migrants in the EU However, there are several datasets that can be used as proxies to provide estimates


http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/migratory-routes-map/









http://migration.iom.int/europe/

https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Asylum_quarterly_report




0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2010-12 2011-06 2011-12 2012-06 2012-12 2013-06 2013-12 2014-06 2014-12 2015-06 2015-12 2016-06 2016-12

Central Mediterranean route

Eastern Mediterranean route

Western Mediterranean route

Irregular Border Crossing (IBC) by sea following the Central, Western and Eastern Mediterranean routes Source: IBCs data, Frontex



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Number of uniform Schengen visas in 2016 by main countries where consulates issuing the visas are located The data do not necessarily reflect the country of origin of the people receiving the uniform Schengen visa Source: Schengen Visa Statistics, European Commission



-200,000

300,000

800,000

1,300,000

1,800,000

2,300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU 28 TCNs refused entry at the external

borders

EU 28 TCNs found illegally present

EU 28 TCNs ordered to leave

EU 28 TCNs returned following an order to

leave

Data on Enforcement of Immigration Legislation. The high values for TCNs found illegally present in 2015 and 2016 may be attributed to the inclusion of Irregular Border Crossings for several countries


Source: Enforcement of Immigration Legislation, Eurostat


0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1st time asylum applications

Total 1st instance decisions

Negative 1st instance decisions

First time asylum applications, total number of first instance decisions and negative first instance decisions First instance rejections data is a proxy of irregular migration geographic and status flows


Sources: asylum and managed migration, Eurostat


Main limitations: • aggregation at the EU level is prone to double-counting and variable coverage; • each data set refers to time periods that are not aligned and capture different stages of administrative process; and • most of the data collected refer to detected irregular migrants and migration while the real stock of irregular migration remains unknown.


Migration Policy Practice – Volume II, Nr 2, April-September 2017

Data integration

Migration & Unemployment • Introduction • Data on International Migration • Data gaps • Data integration • Case studies • Innovative data sources & Big Data

Spain: how migration might follow boom (construction sector) & bust economic (2007) cycles

Sources: - immigration, OECD - unemployment, World Bank

Migration & Unemployment

Explore migration flows to Spain from 2006-2011


Source: immigration, OECD

IDPs, Refugees, Arrivals

EU irregular arrivals by sea [FRONTEX]

Stock of Refugees [UNHCR]

Internally Displaced Persons conflicts-related [IDMC]


Visualising data of different nature and from multiple sources in this case helps understanding that the number of arrivals to the EU by sea (blue) are significantly smaller than the stocks of Internally Displaced Persons and refugees This is particularly clear in the case of Syria (see the inset), where the increase of IDPs in 2012 is followed by the one of people leaving the country and obtaining refugee status

Data on conflicts related IDPs (source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre - IDMC), origin countries of refugees (source: UNHCR) and origin countries of EU irregular border crossings through the Mediterranean Sea (source: Frontex) in 2015

Case Studies

Case study I • Introduction • Data on International Migration • Data gaps • Data integration • Case studies • Innovative data sources & Big Data

Which route did Syrian migrants and refugees follow in 2013, 2014 and 2015? How did this change?

Source: IBCs, Frontex


Case study II

What is the trend of the % of migrant stocks (non-EU-28 and total) versus the total population in EU-28 during 2014-2016?

Source: migration stocks, Eurostat


Case study III

Nigeria: arrivals, asylum applications, residence permits

Sources: - residence permits, Eurostat - asylum applications, Eurostat - IBCs, Frontex

Refugees: where are located? Where do they come from?

Case study IV • Introduction • Data on International Migration • Data gaps • Data integration • Case studies • Innovative data sources & Big Data

Source: - population of concern, UNHCR

Refugees: where are located? Where do they come from? Example: Sudan / Ethiopia

Case study V • Introduction • Data on International Migration • Data gaps • Data integration • Case studies • Innovative data sources & Big Data

Source: - population of concern, UNHCR

How many children applied for asylum in 2016 in EU28?


Case study VI

Source: asylum, Eurostat

Innovative Data Sources and Big Data

Level of concentration of migrants from Philippines (orange), China (yellow), Egypt (green), Peru (red) in Milan. Source: Italian Census Data

City Centre


KCMD Maps of migrants in EU cities Spatial Segregation

Density of mobile phone traffic with China and areas of highest concentration of migrants from 2011 Census Sources: - Italian Census Data & - Call Detail Records, Telecom

Italia

Mobile phones data Activity-based Spatial Segregation


Conclusions

• Data can help balancing the public debate around an often misperceived theme such as migration

• Policy advice and knowledge management for migration require full awareness of data opportunities and limitations

• Data limitations need to be addressed through research and alternative methods which, among others, need to cover

• International mobility versus migration

• local dimension of migration (diversity)

Any questions? You can find us at @M_Vespe @Marlene_aa [email protected] [email protected] https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/migration-and-demography

joint research centre - european commission · 2017-09-14 · integration understanding the data...

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