jraia japan ; latest activities including risk assessment for a2l refrigerants ... . source: jsrae

The 10th Three Associations Meeting

JRAIA The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association

August 31, 2016 Jeju, Korea

1

Contents 1. Domestic Market Update

2. Implementation of Alternative Refrigerant Management

in Japan ; Latest Activities including Risk Assessment for A2L refrigerants (JRAIA's Side Event at OEWG38, Vienna 18th July, 2016)

3. JRAIA World Air Conditioner Demand Estimates in 2015

https://www.jraia.or.jp/ https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/index.html 2

https://www.jraia.or.jp/https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/index.html

7,192 7,521

6,866 6,466

7,037 7,573 7,417 7,382 7,579

6,906

8,338 8,303 8,521

9,423

8,094 8,166

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,00

0 un

its

Room Air Conditioners (RAC)

Transition of yearly shipments : Room Air Conditioners (RAC)

4

68 68 75 81 87

97 106 109 109 92 104 118 125 126

134 129

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,00

0 un

its VRF on Outdoor Unit Basis

Transition of yearly shipments : Packaged Air Conditioners (PAC)

708 725 648

685 759

808 782 757 725

602

723 778 780

835 840 774

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,00

0uni

ts

Packaged Air Conditioners (PAC : inc. VRF) on Outdoor Unit Bases

9,804 9,466 8,634 8,655 9,045

9,911 9,428 9,371 8,773 7,048

8,917 9,716

12,238 12,401 12,594 13,047

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Displacement-type (reciprocating, rotary, scroll, screw) Chillers

3,405 3,076 2,879 2,878 2,639 2,396 2,204 1,949 1,662 1,411 1,378 1,361 1,472 1,669 1,517 1,629

0

200

400

600

800

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1000

USR

T

Uni

ts

Absorption Chillers

Absorption Chiller 1000USRT

410 319 260

349 431 453

536 588 606

403 411 396 367 295 256 288

0

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1000

USR

T

Uni

ts

Centrifugal Chillers

Centrifugal Chiller 1000USRT

Transition of yearly shipments : Chillers

6

3,405 3,076 2,879 2,878 2,639 2,396 2,204

1,949 1,662 1,411 1,378 1,361 1,472

1,669 1,517 1,629

0100200300400500600700

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1000

USR

T

Uni

ts

Absorption Chiller

Absorption Chiller 1000USRT

Transition of yearly shipments : Absorption Chillers

2,059 1,877 1,807 1,790 1,610 1,563 1,491 1,391 1,265 1,035 1,009 1,034 1,070 1,232 1,121 1,210

950 777 766 767

692 545 438 388 274

284 289 227 268 325 299 306

396 422

306 321 337

288 275

170 123

92 80 100 134 112

97 113

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gas Oil Steam etc.

7

50 43 41 40 38 36

31 26

22 18 17

21 27 29 29

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,00

0 un

its

Gas-engine driven HP Air Conditioner (GHP) on Outdoor Unit Basis

Transition of yearly shipments : Gas-engine driven Heat-pump Air Conditioner (GHP)

68 68 75 81

87 97

106 109 109

92 104

118 125 126

134 129

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,00

0 un

its VRF on Outdoor Unit Basis

3 37

81 131

226

350

413

500 508

566

497 447 459

415 408

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,00

0 un

its

Residential HP water heater

1,614 2,197

3,509 3,562

4,546 5,060

4,553 3,681

3,304 3,026

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Commercial HP water heater

Transition of yearly shipments :Heat-pump Water Heater

9

11

JRAIA's Side Event at OEWG38, Vienna (18th July, 2016)

Requirements for Alternative Refrigerants

2016 JRAIA The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association. All Rights Reserved. 12

Reasonable Cost Acceptable level in Developing Countries

Economic Feasibility

Ozone Depletion Potential =0 Low Global Warming Potential

Environment Performance

Low Toxicity Low Risk of Flammability Safety (precondition)

Superior for LCCP* value Similar performance at high load cooling

Energy Efficiency

S+3E

LCCP*Life Cycle Climate Performance

Actions to phase down HFCs have been started sector by sector in Japan by considering not only Environment Performance but also Safety, Energy Efficiency and Economic Feasibility.

Decisive quality criteria: [A] > [B1] [B2] [B3] guidelinesmanuals standard , legislation

Basic Procedure for Risk Assessment

2016 JRAIA The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association. All Rights Reserved. 13

START

Minimize the risk

COMPLETION

Estimate the risk

[B1] Estimate of the leakage probability [B2] Estimate of the probability of generating a flammable area [B3] Probability of the fire source

es

o Is the risk within the tolerance level?

Consider additional safety

measures

commercialization, market research

Dispersing fan, Ventilation, Isolation valve, Alarm

[A] Set the tolerance level of the risk probability of the accidents (ignition)

Test result of the Risk Assessment

14

Safety criteria (Use) Ignition probability 10-10 , (Others) Ignition probability 10-9

After safety criteria was determined, risk assessment over the total life cycle was conducted.

If the risk level exceeds the safety criteria, additional safety measures must be taken to satisfy the criteria. They are to be applied to the safety manual and guideline. Required practices should follow depending on the necessity.

Life stage Ignition probability ( R32 )

Logistic 4.110-17

Installation 2.710-10

Use (Indoor) 3.910-15

Use (Outdoor) 1.510-10

Service 3.210-10

Disposal 3.610-11

The details of activities and the progress reports are available in the following website: http://www.jsrae.or.jp/jsrae/committee/binensei/risk_eng.html Source: JSRAE

In this risk assessment, wall mounted ACs were proven to be within the tolerance level for ignition possibility, even without additional safety measures

Key Activities in JapanBase case [Mini-split]

2016 JRAIA The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.jsrae.or.jp/jsrae/committee/binensei/risk_eng.html

Key Activities in JapanTimescale

15

Mi ni -Spl i t

Spl i t

VRF

Chi l l er

2017 2018

Other s

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Residential

Commercial

Refrigeration equipment

: Reporting

Residential A/Cs with A2L have been in the Japan market from 2014 onward


sheet1

20112012201320142015201620172018

Mini-Split

Split

VRF

Chiller

Others

Residential

Commercial

Refrigeration equipment

: Reporting

Residential A/Cs with A2L have been in the Japan market from 2014 onward

Sheet2

Residential

Commercial

GHP, Refrigeration equipment

Reporting

Residential air conditioners Used A2L refrigerant has been sold in Japansince 2014.

Key Activities in JapanLegislation

The equipment over the tolerance level of risk (Decisive quality criteria) must adapt safety measures below ; Design to prevent pooling : Dispersing fan, Ventilation, Isolation valve to minimize flammable area Set detector / alarm High pressure gas safety act covers flammability as well as toxicity. Currently the revision of classification in this act is under consideration by adapting the safety measures stated above. In addition to international standards such as ISO5149 and IEC60335-2-40, Japan is considering to add the safety obligation set for each equipment to prevent the fire during gas leak by adapting two JRA standards below ; JRA GL-20 JRAIA guideline JRA 4068 JRAIA standard

16 2016 JRAIA The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association. All Rights Reserved.

17

Global Legislation/ Act for flammable refrigerants (mainly for the refrigerants with lower flammability)

U.S. Europe Japan

Legislation/ Act

Clean Air Act SNAP

FGas Regulation, Act

Act on Rational Use and Proper Management of Fluorocarbons High pressure gas safety act

National legislation

Building Code IMC, UMC, etc. Building Code High pressure gas safety act

International standards ISO817refrigerant classification ISO5149safety

Standard / regulations

(define ref types) ASHRAE34 Relevant standards based on ISO High pressure gas safety act

Standard / regulations

(safety)

ASHRAE15 UL60335-2-40 UL484, etc.

EN378 EN60335-2-40

High pressure gas safety act JIS C9335-2-40 JRA standards, etc.

Key Activities in JapanComparison


Key activities in JapanTarget GWPs

Act on Rational Use and Proper Management of Fluorocarbons sets target GWP and its schedule (plan) for each designated product

18

Designated Product Target GWP Weighted Average GWP

Target year

Room air conditioning (Mini-Split) 750 2018

Commercial air conditioning (Split) 750 2020

Mobile air conditioning 150 2023

Condensing unit and refrigerating unit 1500

2025

Cold storage warehouses 100 2019

Urethane foam 100 2020

Dust blowers 10 2019


19

Key activities in Japan : HFCs Phasedown

Reduced volume of new-use by product transition (in 10 thousand ton) Reduced volume of maintenance-use by product transition Reduced volume of maintenance-use by inspection Estimate volume for maintenance-use Estimate volume for the new shipment

BAU shipment equivalent Estimate of the use of F-gas

Estimate use in 2020: approx. 43 million CO2 ton

Estimate use in 2025: approx. 36 million CO2 ton

(Unit: 10,000 CO2 ton)

approx. 52% decrease

approx. 40% decrease


21

JRAIA World Air Conditioners Demand Estimates

23

JRAIA World Air Conditioners Demand Estimates Market Report

24

http://www.jraia.or.jp/english/symposium/index.html

The International Symposium New Refrigerants and Environmental Technology 2016

Date December 1-2, 2016 Venue International Conference Center

Kobe, JAPAN Tel: +81-78-302-5200 Fax: +81-78-302-6485

Organizer The Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association (JRAIA) Tokyo, JAPAN Tel: +81-3-3432-1671 Fax: +81-3-3438-0308

Supported by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry(METI) Kobe city

Contents Environmental Issues New Refrigerants and Their system 2L refrigerants Compressors and Lubricants Energy Conservation

Thank you for your attention

25

1 2 3Transition of yearly shipments : Room Air Conditioners (RAC) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11Requirements for Alternative RefrigerantsBasic Procedure for Risk AssessmentKey Activities in JapanBase case [Mini-split]Key Activities in JapanTimescaleKey Activities in JapanLegislation Key Activities in JapanComparisonKey activities in JapanTarget GWPsKey activities in Japan : HFCs Phasedown 20 21 22 23 24 25

jraia japan ; latest activities including risk assessment for a2l refrigerants ... . source: jsrae

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