Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s

Wheeler 2012. NCC.

The approach

Modelling changes in crop suitability

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… …and calculates the climatic suitability of the

resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

• EcoCrop: how does it work?

Input data

Model training• Present-day climates from WorldClim• Crop distribution data (GBIF, other sources)• An idea of the crop’s ecology, its distribution, and

growing season duration• Some literature reviewModel projection• 24 different climate models (2030, SRES-A1B), to

sample uncertaintiesAdaptation strategy testing• Genetic adaptation by broadening ecological ranges

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Preliminary analyses (~2009)

Sorghum

Cassava

New analyses: 26 crops + maize

Potato

VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

Potato Current Suitability

Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80

Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75

Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40

Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80

Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00

Growing season (days) 120

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50

Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

Potato Current Suitability and Presence

Potato Current Climatic Constraints

Potato Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

Water availability Temperatures

Potato Breeding Priorities

Regional impacts

Suitability changes Crop Comparison

Suitability changes Crop Comparison in Africa

Suitability changes Crop Comparison in Latin America

& Caraïbes

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