August 9, 2012

Ukraine Elections to Verkhovna Rada 2012

Election Monitor

The October 28, 2012 parliamentary election race officially began on Monday, July 30. Currently, participating political

parties are finalizing their party lists and nominating and registering candidates for single-mandate election districts. The

results of this process, including the exact list of candidates and participating parties will be available by the second half of

August.

Opinion polling points six parties playing an active role in the elections: Party of Regions, United Opposition (“Batkivshchyna”

and “Front of Change”), Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms (UDAR), Communist Party of Ukraine, “Ukraine –

Forward!”, and “Freedom”. The first four will almost surely have a presence in the next Parliament, and the other two also

have good chances. All of these parties will participate in both the party list and the single-mandate elections, except

“Freedom” which will coordinate its single-mandate list with the United Opposition. Additionally, incumbent Parliament

Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s “National Party” will run exclusively in the single-mandate elections, but will not participate in

the party list election. Former President Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” teamed with other rightist parties “Ukrainian National

Party” and “Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists” and will participate in both parts of the election process. Opinion polling

suggests they are highly unlikely to pass the 5% threshold for party lists and their candidates in single mandate districts are

at a disadvantage due to their late start.

Single-mandate elections remain traditionally unpredictable, although we can be sure that the incumbent Party of Regions

will have an advantage in eastern and southern regions where their candidates are well finances and face little competition

from opposition candidates. As is common in Ukraine, the deciding factor in many single mandate districts will be the

candidate’s ability to finance their political campaigns, as well as other large projects in the districts, rather than party

affiliation.

Regarding Kyiv municipal elections, the two main contenders are obvious. The runoff will be between Vitaliy Klychko, leader

of the opposition UDAR party and Oleksadnr Popov, current Chairman of the Kyiv City State Administration. The Party of

Regions will attempt to delay the elections as much as possible in order to secure a victory for Popov.

PBN H+K Strategies will offer another update on the 2012 parliamentary elections at the end of August, 2012.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PARTY LIST RACE

19,4

19,3

12,4 4,7

1,9 3,4 4,1

34,8

June 2012 Party of Regions

United Opposition

UDAR

Communist Party

Freedom

Ukraine - Forward!

Other

Undecided

17,9

20,5

9,0

3,8 2,6 1,3 3,8

41,0

May 2012 Party of Regions

United Opposition

UDAR

Communist Party

Freedom

Ukraine - Forward!

Other

Undecided

Party of Regions and United Opposition (“Batkivshchyna” + “Front of Change”) are virtually even in voter support; however,

they have lost much popularity since the 2007 election.

Party of Regions is not attracting many additional voters, despite the assimilation of Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko’s

party “Strong Ukraine”. In fact, as some recent polls show, they continue to lose public trust.

Yulia Tymoshenko’s “Batkivshchyna”, on the other hand, gained considerable support after merging with “Front of Change”

headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

After the recent changes in the election system (particularly the elimination of “Against All” vote) and the abovementioned

mergers, the electorate is in a flux. The number of people not planning to attend the elections has more than doubled, and

the number of undecided voters has increased dramatically as well. Thus, the election among party lists appears wide open

for now.

Source: polls by GfK Ukraine

% Party of Regions United

Opposition UDAR

Communist

Party Freedom

Ukraine -

Forward! Other Undecided

May, 2012 17.9 20.5 9.0 3.8 2.6 1.3 3.8 41.0

June, 2012 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4 4.1 34.8

POPULARITY POLLS FROM OTHER SOURCES

As seen, the data from Razumkov Centre

slightly inflates the results in favor of the

two leading parties, while the other studies

emphasize the open nature of the race.

The more recent study from Rating Group

demonstrates the gain in support by the

United Opposition and the Communist

Party.

% Party of

Regions United

Opposition UDAR

Communist

Party Freedom

Ukraine -

Forward! Other Undecided

Razumkov Centre

(25 June 2012) 25.1 23.7 9.8 7.2 3.5 3.3 7.9 19.5

KIIS (26 June

2012) 19.1 17.3 9.5 6.9 3.7 3.9 5.1 34.2

GfK (June 2012) 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4 4.1 34.8

Rating Group (31

July 2012) 18.6 23.6 10.3 9.3 4.0 4.1 2.3 23.3

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

Graphic Comparison

Razumkov Centre(25 June 2012)

KIIS (26 June2012)

GfK (June 2012)

Rating Group (31July 2012)

IF ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE IN JULY…

There are only 4 parties currently who would easily pass the 5% threshold: Party of Regions, United Opposition

(“Batkivshchyna” + “Front of Change”), UDAR and the Communist Party of Ukraine.

The Communist Party is slightly below the cutoff line, but will no doubt pass the threshold as it is benefitting from voters

dissatisfied with the Party of Regions in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

Oleh Tyahnybok’s “Freedom” and Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine-Forward!” are considerably below the threshold, but both

still have a chance to pass 5%. The latter in particular has been gaining attention and support steadily in the recent

months, more so after the famous Ukrainian football player, Andriy Shevchenko announced his membership in the party.

78

77

50

20

Seats filled under the Proportional System

Party of Regions

United Opposition

UDAR

Communist Party

Party of Regions United

Opposition UDAR

Communist

Party Freedom

Ukraine -

Forward! Other Total

Seats 78 77 50 20 below threshold below threshold below threshold 225

Note: assume “undecided” voters don’t participate or spread equally

POTENTIAL VOTER GAIN

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

Potential Gain

Current Support

Party of Regions has very little potential to gain voters on

the proportional system, and will likely emphasize securing

as many single-mandate districts as possible in order to

ensure a majority in the Parliament.

Another key task for the Party of Regions will be to

encourage their electoral base to turn out. Despite low

potential to gain active voters, they might still garner

support from over 30% of potential voters currently refusing

to participate in the elections.

Both United Opposition and UDAR have a large amount of

sympathizers, enough to secure a significant number of

additional seats.

Both “Freedom” and “Ukraine-Forward!” still have a chance to break the 5% threshold given a successful campaign.

With over 35% of the voters undecided, much will depend on the ability of the parties to swing this electorate in their favor.

UDAR will need to target younger voters (under 30 years old.), since they are the least politically active, but show the most

support for Klychko’s party advertised as modern, progressive, and European.

Party of Regions United Opposition UDAR Communist Party Freedom Ukraine - Forward!

Support (%) 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4

Sympathy (%) 21.8 28.2 23.1 9.0 6.4 7.7

Relative Gain

(times) 1.12 1.46 1.86 1.91 3.37 2.26

Relative Gain (%) 12.4 46.1 86.3 91.5 236.8 126.5

Currently, the results of single-mandate elections are impossible to predict with certainty, since there is usually little to no

correlation between the voters’ party preferences and regional representative voting tendencies in Ukraine.

While some candidates (usually pro-Party of Regions incumbents) have already started campaigning in their districts, the

single-mandate race remains open as official registration of candidates in the Central Election Commission has only just

begun, and the parties continue to finalize candidate lists.

Unless the opposition begins to campaign aggressively in the nearest future, single-mandate races will favor pro-government

candidates or independents with their support, for the following reasons:

– Many of the districts were drawn in favor of pro-government candidates or with the intention of disrupting opposition

candidates’ campaigns;

– Some Party of Regions candidates are masquerading as pro-opposition independents in order to create fake

competition against intentionally weak PoR candidates and discredit the actual opposition candidates;

– Single-mandate races usually favor the better-financed, better-organized candidates, which are often pro-government

candidates.

– Some opposition candidates are willing to cross over to the Party of Regions side after winning their seats as

opposition members, particularly business leaders.

The possibility of fraud on certain election sites still exists. It will be difficult for the opposition to install enough observers in

all the 225 districts and to operate effectively after being accustomed to a proportional election system for the past 10 years.

According to some estimates, pro-government candidates have the power to gain as much as 10% more votes through fraud

during the counting process.

Judging by the released candidate lists for single-mandate districts, the Party of Regions and the PoR-sympathizing

independents currently hold considerable advantage over the rather weak candidates from opposition. The PBN Company

will release more specific analysis once the lists are finalized and the candidates officially register with the CEC.

SINGLE-MANDATE ELECTIONS

Potential Candidates

Vitaliy Klychko Oleksandr

Popov

Oleksandra

Kuzhel' Oleh Lyashko Vasyl' Horbal' Serhiy Kurykin Against All Undecided

Popularity (%) 43.1 34.4 6.9 1.6 1.2 0.0 3.0 9.8

KYIV MAYOR ELECTION

43,1

34,4

6,9 1,6

1,2

3,0

9,8

Potential Kyiv Mayor Popularity

Vitaliy Klychko

Oleksandr Popov

Oleksandra Kuzhel'

Oleh Lyashko

Vasyl' Horbal'

Against All

Undecided

The race is likely to come down to Popov (Party of

Regions) vs. Klychko (UDAR, opposition). Klychko

currently enjoys more popularity, but with time Popov

has better resources and is better-positioned to gain

additional support.

While the opposition is pushing for the Kyiv Mayor

election to be held simultaneously with the parliamentary

elections in October, 2012, the Party of Regions is

interested in delaying the date in order to boost their

candidate’s popularity. Verkhovna Rada sets the date for

municipal elections, therefore the Party of Regions has

this advantage as long as they maintain their majority.

Vitaliy Klychko has previously announced his intent to

run for the position, and that he would give up his seat in

the Verkhovna Rada for it.

Source: poll by “Ukrainian Democratic Circle”, July 2012

APPENDIX 1: MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES

“Party of Regions”: The party

that currently holds 175 seats and

majority in Verkhovna Rada. It is

also the party of the current

President, Viktor Yanukovych.

Generally favors a Russian-

leaning agenda.

“Batkivshchyna”: Formerly known

as the Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc, this

is the primary opposition party in

Ukraine. After merging with the

“Front for Change” and several

other small opposition parties, it is

often referred to as the United

Opposition. Generally has a pro-

European stance.

Communist Party of Ukraine:

Currently holds 27 seats in the

parliament. It is a small but

significant pro-government party

in Ukraine. Pursues a socialist

agenda and generally sides with

the Party of Regions.

UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic

Alliance for Reform): Vitaliy

Klychko’s party. This is the only

significant opposition party not

cooperating with “Batkivshchyna” in

the upcoming elections. UDAR has

been gaining much popular support

in the recent months. Pursues a pro-

European and an anti-corruption

agenda.

“Ukraine-Forward!”:

Natalia Korolevska’s party,

formerly known as the Social

Democratic Party of Ukraine,

formerly part of Bloc of Yuliya

Tymoshenko. Positions itself as

an opposition party with a pro-

development agenda, but might

side with the PoR after elections.

All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom”:

Oleh Tyahnybok’s party. Agreed to

cooperate with “Batkivshchyna” in

single-mandate elections. Pursues a

Ukrainian nationalist and a populist

agenda.

APPENDIX 2: KYIV MAYOR ELECTIONS

POTENTIAL CANDIDATES PROFILE

Vitaliy Klychko: Leader of the UDAR

party, former member of the Kyiv City

Council. Ran for mayor’s office before,

unsuccessfully.

Oleksandr Popov: Chairman of the Kyiv

City State Administration, former Minister

for Public Services. Member of Party of

Regions, and their preferred candidate for

Kyiv mayor.

Oleksandra Kuzhel’: Former head of

The State Committee of Ukraine for

Regulatory Policy and Entrepreneurship,

former deputy head of the “Strong

Ukraine” party. Quit the party after its

merge with the Party of Regions.

Oleh Lyashko: Incumbent deputy of the

Verkhovna Rada from “Batkivshchyna”,

was ousted from the party in 2010,

allegedly for “cooperating with the [Party

of Regions] majority”.

Vasyl’ Horbal’: Incumbent deputy of the

Verkhovna Rada from the Party of

Regions; former president of

“Ukrgazbank”, former governor of Lviv

oblast. Ran for mayor’s office in 2008.

Serhiy Kurykin: Former head of the

Green Party, former Minister for Ecology

and Natural Resources.