Just-in-Time Lecture

Pakistan Earthquake

8 October 2005

www.pitt.edu/~super/

Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni

K, Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F,

Russel M, & Noji EK

Mission Statement:

The Global Health Network

Disaster, Network for Earthquake

is designed to translate the best

possible scholarly information

from leading researchers to

educators worldwide.

What is the Disaster Supercourse?

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1

What is a JIT lecture?

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1

Lecture objectives:

To provide the best possible scientific

information about the Pakistan

earthquake of 8 Oct 2005

To teach how the science can help

prepare for primary & secondary

prevention of consequences of

Pakistan earthquake, 8 Oct 2005

What is the earthquake?

The shaking of earth caused by waves

moving on and below the earth's

surface and causing: surface faulting,

tremors vibration, liquefaction,

landslides, aftershocks and/or

tsunamis

It caused by a sudden slip on a FAULT.

Stresses in the earth's

outer layer push sides of

fault together.

Stress builds up & rocks

slips suddenly, releasing

energy in waves that travel

through the earth's CRUST

& cause the shaking that we

Feel during an earthquake.

How the earthquake happens?

Earthquake Strength Measures I)

Magnitude & II) Intensity

I) Magnitude:

Definition: A measure of actual physical

energy release at its source as estimated from

instrumental observations.

Scale: Richter Scale

By Charles Richter, 1936

Open-ended scale

The oldest & most widely used Noji 1997

Earthquake Strength Measures

I) Magnitude & II) IntensityII) Intensity:

Definition: a measure of the felt or perceived

effects of an earthquake rather than the strength

of the earthquake itself.

Scale: Modified Mercalli (MM) scale

12-point scale, ranges from barely

perceptible earthquakes at MM I to

near total destruction at MM XII

Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake as

a whole, while intensity refers to the effects of an

earthquake at a particular site.

An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while

intensity is usually strongest close to the epicenter

& is weaker the farther a site is from the epicenter.

The intensity of an earthquake is more germane to

its public health consequences than its magnitude.

Magnitude versus Intensity

Northward movement of the Indian

subcontinent

(40 mm/yr = 1.6 inches/yr)+

Colliding with the Eurasian continent

Earthquakes & active faults in

Northern Pakistan

& adjacent parts of India & Afghanistan

US

GS

Seismicity of Pakistan

Concentrated in N and W of the country, along

the boundary of the Indian plate & the Iranian

& Afghan micro-plates

Thrust zones:

Kirthar

Sulaiman

Salt ranges

4 faults in & around Karachi

Based on Expected Ground Acceleration,

Pakistan is divided into 4 earthquake hazard

zones.

Peak Ground Acceleration (m/s2)

Seismicity of Jammu & Kashmir

Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

One of the strongest

earthquakes in the area since a

mammoth M7.6 in Sep 1555 with

max density XII in Kashmir

(Jammu & Kashmir) and India

DateMain LocationMDeath

20 Nov 2002Gilgit-Astore6.323

3 Nov 2002Gilgit-Astore5.317

1 Nov 2002Gilgit-Astore5.51

26 Jan 2001Near Bhachau (Gujarat)7.620

27 Feb 1997Near Harnai (Baluchistan)7.350

9 Aug 1993Hindukush Mountains 7.0-

31 Jan 1991Hindukush Mountains 6.7300

29 July 1985Hindukush Mountains7.45

30 Dec 1983Hindukush Mountains7.414

12 Sep 1981Gilgit Wazarat (Jammu & Kashmir), India6.1-

History of earthquakes in Pakistan, 1980-2004

Largest earthquake in Pakistan !

Date: 30 May 1935

Location: Quetta / Balouchistan

Magnitude: 8.1 on the Richter scale

Time: 19:00:46.9 UTC

Epicentre: 27.39N, 88.75E

Depth: 17 Kms

Death: 30,000

Pakistan’s Health Statistics:

Total population: 153,578,000

GDP per capita (Intl $, 2002): 1,920

Life expectancy at birth m/f (years):

62,0/62,0

Healthy life expectancy at birth m/f

(years, 2002): 54,2/52,3

Pakistan’s Health Statistics:

Child mortality m/f (per 1000): 98/108

Adult mortality m/f (per 1000): 225/199

Total health expenditure per capita

(Intl $, 2002): 62

Total health expenditure as % of GDP

(2002): 3,2

Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

Geolocation: 34.402°N, 73.560°E

Region: Pakistani controlled Jammu &

Kashmir at N of Pakistan & Punjab

& Himachal Pradesh at N of India.

Countries affected: Pakistan, India, Afghanistan

Affected area: Forest-clad mountains

Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)

Epicentre Distances from Islamabad: 90 Km NNE

Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

Magnitude: 7.6 on the Richter scale (USGS)

7.8 on the Richter scale (JMA)

Classification: Major

Aftershock: ~ 200 from 5.4 – 6.2

Date: Saturday 8 Oct 2005

Time: 8:50 AM at the local time

Death toll: ~ 50,000

Injured: ~ 70,000

Affected population:

Severely: 3.027.900

Marginally: 5.260.183

Displaced/homeless:

3.3 million

Pakistan Earthquake

Impacts

Balakot area: The worst hit area

20,000 causalities

90% buildings destruction

100% homeless

Muzaffarabad: 80% destroyed

City of Bagh: Totally destroyed

Main affected areas

Damage to health infrastructure:

Destruction of:

26 hospitals

3 Tuberculosis hospitals

> 600 PHC centres

The United Nations flash appeal

for Pakistan to cover the relief

needs for a 6 months emergency

phase:

US$ 312 million

When disaster strikes, years of development can be wiped out in

seconds

Relief operation obstacles:

Huge numbers of injured

Helicopters as the only means to get to

cut-off villages

Logistical challenges

Rapidly deteriorating weather conditions

Continuous rains at nights

Blocking roads by landslides

Heavy clouds

Critical needs of the affected

population:

Winterised shelter up to 600,000 (based on

3 million needing shelter, 5 persons per

family)

Medical services

Water & sanitation

Nutrition

Reaching populations in villages

Health needs & concerns: Cold temperature (<0) & hypothermia Lack of sanitation facilities Lack of adequate & safe drinking water Need to water purification plants & Water tanks Need to latrines Problem of sanitary disposal of excreta and Basic hygiene Inadequate food Unaccompanied, separated, orphaned children Risk of diarrhoeal illnesses, pulmonary diseases & non-treatment of injured and infected open fractures & gangrenes

Dead bodies do not lead to epidemics,

but the bad odour is always a problem, as

it is true in Pakistan and was in Bam.

Solution: Spraying campaigns with

chlorine

A major problem in efficient service delivery to really affected people:

Increasing number of people moving into

Balakot from outlying villages seeking

assistance!

Bam earthquake lessons learned:

We should focus on:

Incident Command System (ICS)

Inter and Intra sectoral Coordination

Emergency Health Information System

(EHIS)

Public Health Consequences of

Earthquakes

Pease see the following lectures:

Part I.

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13021/index.htm

Part II.

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13051/index.htm

Time of Pakistan earthquake,8 Oct 2005:

Around 9 AM on Saturday & most

students were at schools when the

earthquake struck !!

Epidemiology of fear:

I feel we need to reach out first, are schools

all over Pakistan but particularly in cities like

Lahore and Islamabad who experienced

earthquake but fortunately escaped with out

major damage. These young minds are also

affected by the stories of hundreds of young

students who have lost their lives in other

areas.  Dr. Khawar Kazmi

People need information as much as

water, food, medicine or shelter.

Information can save lives, livelihoods &

resources.

Lack of information can make people

victims of disaster.

World Disaster Report 2005 – IFRC/RCS

Just-in-Time Education:

Let’s teach the school children right now !

0.95

0.62 0.62

0.050

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Flood Earthquake Cyclone Drought

Average Disaster Per Year in Pakistan

UNDP

69

1118

20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Flood Earthquake Cyclone Drought

Proportion of People Killed per Type of Disaster (1980-2000)

%

UNDP

94

80

69

30102030405060708090

100

Iran Japan Pakistan USA

Comparison of Proportion of People Killed following Earthquakes between Pakistan &

other countries (1980-2000)

UNDP

%

1,500,000

50,0000

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

Cardio Vascular Disease Earthquake

Comparison of 10-year death in Pakistan between Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) &

Earthquakes

30 times more death due to CVDs than earthquakes

Earthquake Nature:

Almost unpredictable disaster

No early warning

No scientific prediction technology

But we can protect ourselves &

minimize the damage to our

homes, schools & work places.

What we should do/do not

before, during & after the

earthquake?

Please read carefully at:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/prepare.html

References

We wish to express our

warm thanks to GDHNet

faculties and all groups that

contributed their valuable

materials.