kaarle kupiainen effect of co 2 -based car registration tax on traffic pm 2.5 emissions in finland...
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Effect of CO2-based car registration tax on traffic PM2.5 emissions in
Finland and future NTMs
Kaarle Kupiainen, Niko Karvosenoja, Jyrki Tenhunen, Jyri Seppälä
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
The new CO2 based registration tax in Finland
• New CO2 emission based registration tax came into force 1.1.2008• The purpose of the tax is to
– renew the old taxation system of vehicles– cut the CO2 emissions from traffic and – act as one measure to achieve the CO2 emission goals set up by the EU
• Lowest tax rate is 10 percent for a car emitting 60 gCO2/km• The tax rate rises by one percent per each 10 gCO2/km until it reaches 40 percent.
• Examples of approximate car price differences (before-after the tax reform):– Toyota Prius (104 g/km): -7 700 € (sales of Prius 4x higher in 2008 than in 2007)– BMW 320D (130 g/km): -7 700 €– Jeep Commander (370 g/km): +28 000 € – Land Rover Range Rover (350 g/km): +28 000 €– Porsche Cayenne (330 g/km): +28 000 €– MB SLR2007McLaren (348 g/km): +177 624 €– Ferrari 612 (475 g/km): +104 604 €
• Basic numbers about Finnish car fleet and sales:– Car fleet altogether 2.5 Million vehicles (2.1 Million gasoline, 0.4 Million diesel)– ~140.000 first registrations in 2008
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Behavioural changes motivated by the new tax
• New car sales dropped in 2007 after the tax renewal was published• Sales of diesel cars in 2008 rose to 49% of new registrations (before
the tax <20% for over a decade)• Sales of <160 gCO2/km vehicles doubled in 2008 compared with
2006 and 2007• Sales of >220 gCO2/km vehicles reduced significantly
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Gasoline
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Data: Finnish Vehicle Administration AKE
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
The behavioural change - CO2 emissions of first registered cars
• Average CO2 emissions of first registered cars:– 2006: 179 gCO2/km– 2007: 177 gCO2/km– 2008: 163 gCO2/km
• No requirements for air pollutant emissions!!– Euro5 into force 1.10.2009– How about PM2.5 before full
implementation of Euro5 (2008-2011)
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Effect of the CO2 based registration tax on PM2.5 emissions? – The NIAM calculation
• What are the future PM2.5 emissions in the situation after the tax reform if the sales of diesel vehicles remains on the 2008 level?
• How much larger are these emissions compared with the hypothetical situation in which the sales of diesel cars would have remained on the 2000-2007 level?
Euro-standards for PMEuro1 (1992): 140 mg/km Euro2 (1996): 100 mg/kmEuro3 (2000): 50 mg/kmEuro4 (2005): 25 mg/kmEuro5 (2009): 5 mg/km
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Calculation procedure and assumptions
Comparison of 2005 and 2011 emissions• Car fleet remains 2008-2010.• 150 000 new cars registered per year 2008-2010. • New diesel cars drive in average 33 500 km per year• 2011 emission were estimated for two scenarios
– Without tax reform: (20% of new cars diesel powered)– After tax reform (50% of new cars diesel powered)
• Year 2008 and 2009: 45 000 more diesel cars sold than before the tax. 50% (22 500) of the diesel cars do not have particulate filter.
• Year 2010: 45 000 more diesel cars sold than before the tax. 20% (9000) of the diesel cars do not have particulate filter.
Hypothesis during transition: more diesel, more PM emitted• Gasoline cars emit 0.005 g/km PM (Euro 5) (or below).• New diesel cars without particle filter emit 0.025 g/km PM (Euro 4).• New diesel cars with particle filter emit 0.005 g/km PM (Euro 5) (or
below).• For the time being we did not do any assumptions about changes in
import and sales of used cars and about consumer profiles.
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18.0
4.23
Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model
www.environment.fi/syke/pm-modeling
55 - 2020 - 5050 - 200200 - 800
800
PM2.5 SO2 NOx
Anthropogenic emissions 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2050 (several projections)
Comprehensive and congruent calculation for primary PM and gases•primary PM (TSP, PM10 - 2.5 - 1 - 0.1, chemical composition in size classes)•SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOCs•GHGs (in progress)
Abatement technologies and costs
Aggregation: 154 sectors, 15 fuels (GAINS compatible)
Large point sources (>200), area emissions (1 1km2)
Several emission heights
Dispersion with s-r matrices (10 10km2 and 1 1km2)
LRT from EMEP
Databases of population and critical loads
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Share of car traffic emissions in Finnish total PM in 2005 (FRES)
• 18% in PM10
• 8-9% in PM2.5 and PM1
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30
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PM10 PM2.5 PM1
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ton/
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Other sources
Other traffic (incl. Off-road)
Cars
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
PM emissions from car traffic in Finland in 2005 (FRES)
• Most of the PM10 is from non-exhaust (including resuspension),
• In PM2.5 ja PM1 exhaust emissions become more important.
• Suspension and exhaust PM have different size distributions.
– Exhaust mostly PM1 – Non-exhaust (suspension) mostly
larger than PM1
• PM2.5 emissions of car fleet exhaust was approximately 1200 tons in 2005.
• Share of exhaust in car fleet total PM emissions
– 66% PM1
– 13% PM10
• 80% of exhaust emissions emitted by diesel cars
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PM10 PM2.5 PM1
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Cars, non-exhaust
Cars, gasoline, exhaust
Cars, diesel, exhaust
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Road dust vs. exhaust PM
Mineral particle(road dust)
Diesel exhaust particle(s)
5m 90nm (0.090m)
Kuvat: Kupiainen 2000, Jokiniemi 2003
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
PM2.5 emissions from car traffic in Finland in 2011 (FRES)
• PM2.5 emission from car exhaust are estimated to decrease by 60% compared with 2005 emissions in both scenarios due to renewal of the vehicle fleet
• In the ”After tax reform” scenario the PM2.5 emissions are estimated to be 35 tons higher than in the ”Without tax” scenario, which means:
– 7 percent higher in car fleet PM2.5 exhaust emissions,
– 1,3 percent highrer in car fleet total PM2.5 emissions,
– 0,7 percent higher in transport sector total PM2.5 emissions and
– 0,12 percent higher in Finnish total PM2.5 emissions
• Conclusion: The tax reform has increased the traffic PM emissions but the effect is relatively minor
• Note! Non-exhaust emissions are at the moment estimated to increase with traffic amounts
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2005 2011 "Without tax reform"
2011 "Af ter tax reform"
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Gasoline cars, exhaust
Diesel cars, exhaust
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Population exposure and the tax reform
• The model combines the population distribution and exposure with the PM2.5 emissions and resulting concentrations
• Traffic emissions have a relatively larger impact on population exposure than other emission sources
• Population exposure in 2011 due to car fleet exhaust PM2.5 emissions is relatively low (few percents of all Finnish emissions)
• Car tax reform increases population exposure by less than 1%
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Summary and Conclusions
• The CO2 based car registration tax that came into force in 1.1.2008 has led to significant changes in consumer behavior in Finland
• It has increased the sales of diesel vehicles and <160 gCO2/km emitting vehicles in general. Sales of >220 gCO2/km vehicles has reduced significantly
• The tax reform can be criticised for not taking into account emissions of air pollutants, especially in the period before Euro 5 is fully in force (2011) (e.g. our study was conducted after the reform)
• The tax reform increases PM2.5 emissions and exposure, but the effect is relatively small, because:– Already in 2008 a major share (50%) of new registered vehicles were
estimated to meet the Euro 5 PM requirement– The transition period is only three years, during which 150000 new cars
are expected to be registered (only 6% of the whole car fleet)– However, this increment could have been avoided!
• Non-exhaust emissions are an important emission source in Finland that are not well controlled at the moment.
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Future non-technical measures in the transport sector in Finland
• Biofuel use (CO2 driven)– 2nd generation biodiesel (e.g. Neste Oil product: NexBTL)
(reduces PM, NOx and HC)– Ethanol (according to EU goals) (low effect on air pollutant
emissions)
• City of Helsinki is planning:– Parking incentives to promote the use of low emission vehicles
• Planned LEV criteria: diesel&gasoline <110gCO2/km, EVs, natural/biogas
– Low emission zone (Euro2 restriction of >3.5 ton vehicles)– We are interested to hear experiences of implementing and
managing these (e.g. cost information)?
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Kaa
rle K
upia
inen
Kaarle Kupiainen
Thank you!
Kaarle Kupiainen
Senior researcher, Ph.D.
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
Research Department for Global Change