Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale RothmanAlexandria, 20 March 2004

MedAction Module 1MedAction Module 1Land use change Land use change scenarios at various scenarios at various scalesscales

Scenarios2000-2030

Decision Support Systems

Policy Support Framework

Stake-holders

Main products of MedAction Main products of MedAction

The goal is to develop qualitative scenarios, or narrative storylines. Thus, we expand our mental model beyond conventional thinking and trend extrapolation, and include more surprising developments.

The relevant question that scenarios can answer is not whether an event could happen, but what we could do if it did happen.

What kind of scenarios?What kind of scenarios?

Workshops withLocal actors Target Area Scenarios

Multi-scale scenario developmentMulti-scale scenario development

3 European Scenarios(from VISIONS)

3 Mediterranean Scenarios

European ScenariosEuropean ScenariosFactor-Actor-Sector FrameworkFactor-Actor-Sector Framework

VISIONS MedAction

Factors Equity Water AvailabilityEmployment MigrationConsumption behaviour Land DegradationEnvironmental degradation Economic Stability

Actors NGOs NGOs

Scientists ScientistsBusinesses BusinessesGovernmental bodies Governmental bodies

Sectors Energy AgricultureWater TourismTransport ForestryInfrastructure Civic

DroughtDesert formation

Flooding

Convulsive Change

Knowledge is King

Information Technology dominates

Inventions

Big is Beautiful

+

+

Merger Mania

Three European scenariosThree European scenarios

Translation to Mediterranean region: Translation to Mediterranean region: Knowledge is KingKnowledge is King

Information Technology dominates

InventionsDesalination of sea waterLife extension drug

Sun-Beltand

Snow-birds

Transportfaster and cheaper

Tourist numbers increase

Target Area scenario developmentTarget Area scenario development

The ideal situation is to have three workshops in all Target Areas:

1. Preparatory workshopsIntroduction

2. First series of workshopsDevelopment narrative storylines 2030

3. Second series of workshopsBackcasting exercise and short term

action

Schedule of stakeholder workshopsSchedule of stakeholder workshops

Target Area Preparatory First Second workshop workshop workshop

Guadalentín 21-06-’02 08-11-’02 25-06-‘03Agri Valley 17-06-’02 21-10-’02 26-07-‘03Lesvos 11-05-’02 XX XXAlentejo XX 08-14-’02 XX

First stakeholder workshopsFirst stakeholder workshops

Maratea, Italy – October 21, 2002 (24)Murcia, Spain – November 8, 2002 (20)Mértola, Portugal – November 11, 2002 (16)

Main questions 1Main questions 1stst workshop workshop

What are the most important factors in your region?

The Story of the Present

How might your region look in 2030 under different European and world

developments?

The Story of the Future

The story of the presentThe story of the present

Writing post-itsWriting post-its

Discussing relationships between factorsDiscussing relationships between factors

Final productFinal product

Climate

Water

Land usechange

Population,Migration

Environmentaleducation

RegionalPolicies

Agrarian Policies

Desertification

The story of the futureThe story of the future

Creating the scenariosCreating the scenarios

The collagesThe collages

Presenting the scenariosPresenting the scenarios

Conclusions of evaluationConclusions of evaluation

Story of the present:No new factors of major importance Locally very different factors (oil in Italy!) and different emphasisPERCEPTION IS DIFFERENT Desertification is human desertification

Story of the future:• Too general• Too much following Mediterranean scenarios

Second stakeholder workshopsSecond stakeholder workshops

Totana, Spain – June 25, 2003 (20)Missanello, Italy – July 26, 2003 (24)

Main questions 2Main questions 2ndnd workshop workshop

What will be the main short-term trends in your region starting from the current situation?

Extension of the Present

How do the present and future connect?

Backcasting exercise

Extension of the presentExtension of the present

Trends in next 5 yearsTrends in next 5 years

Sectors:Agriculture smallholders disappearTourism increasingly important

Factors:Water less availabilityEnvironmental resources more degradationPopulation and migration rural outmigration

Backcasting exerciseBackcasting exercise

Backcasting exerciseBackcasting exercise

1. Pick one factor from “your” scenario

2. Decide whether you want to discuss • This factor (future of the scenario)• The opposite of this factor (desirable

future)

3. Develop a series of events and actions at short and medium term that should necessary happen in order to realise the (desired) situation of this factor in 2030

Shortterm

Mediumterm

Longterm

PresentExtension of the present

What?

When?

Who?

How?

NOGolf

courses

Continuation of intensive agriculture

New subsidies

Sufficient water

“Agriculture before anything”

Lowerprices

New canals

Stop rural outmigrtion

EU?

??

??

????

??

??

??

Sector Short term Medium term Long term

o Research in local knowledgeo Adult training processeso Innovative didacticso Active participation

o Improve local awarenesso Spread positive experienceso Information campaigns

o Marketing local productso Marketing image of the Agrio Collective quality markso Quality brand Val d’Agri

o Capillary street systemo Construct airport in areao Improve water system

o New subsidieso Low impact techniqueso Awareness campaignso Promotion local products

o Increase farm profitso Multifunctional agricultureo Incentives rural tourismo Increase life quality inner zones

Increase the awareness on the topic of rurality

Stimulate young people to invest in agriculture

Increase quality of local, biological products

Increase quality and quantity of

local infrastructure

Strengthening of market power

of the local farmer

Resolving institutional problems with establishment

and management

Multifunctional sustainable agriculture (BiB)

Multifunctional sustainable

agriculture managed by the local farmer

HUMAN CAPITAL

DEMOGRAPHY

AGRICULTURE

INFRASTRUCTURE

MARKETING

VAL D’AGRI NATIONAL PARK

SummarySummary

Present Short Medium Long term

2003 2008 2008-2030 2030

When? 1st 2nd 2nd 1st How? All Groups Groups Groups

Post-its Discussion Backcasting CollageResults Main factors Major trends Desirable futures ‘Real’ futures

ConclusionsConclusionsProcess• Vivid discussions and active participation• Enthusiasm and interest• Increased communication• Start of a long-term interaction and participation?

ResultsPerception of local stakeholders on:• Present situation• Current trends and short-term fears• Long-term hopes and desires• Long-term reactions to European changes

ConclusionsConclusions

Link to policies to combat desertification:

• Local stakeholders perceive desertification as human desertification and causes as socioeconmic• Their interest is not the land but the “territory”

• More integrated policies are needed• Future changes need to be considered (tourism!)