kathy conway co-facilitator: southern oregon climate action now [email protected] 541 –...
TRANSCRIPT
Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire:What’s Behind the Curtain
Kathy ConwayCo-facilitator:
Southern Oregon Climate Action Nowhttp://socan.info
[email protected] 541 – 324 – 4501
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
Western Wildfires & Climate Change
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
Western Wildfires & Climate Change
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
Western Wildfires & Climate Change
Wildfires
10 F makes difference between a high fire year and a low fire year.(http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html )
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
Rogue Valley Temperature History and Projections
2099
1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F
Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.100F
1900 2000
1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F
Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.170F
Projected Temperature Increases
2035-2045Average1.6 – 4⁰F
(51.6 – 53.8⁰F)
Winter 1 – 3.5⁰F
(39.1 – 41.7⁰F)
Summer1 – 6⁰F
(64.4 – 69.5⁰F)
August 1 – 7.5⁰F
(67.1 – 73.5⁰F)
2075-2085Average
4.3 – 8.2⁰F(54.3 – 58.2⁰F)
Winter 3.4 – 6.3⁰F
(41.5 – 44.5⁰F)
Summer5.5 – 11.8⁰F
(69.1 – 75.4⁰F)
August6.7 – 16.8⁰F
(72.7 – 82.8⁰F)
Historic Precipitation
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
National increaseof 5%
Projected Precipitati
onSeasonal Pattern –
HighEmissions Scenarios
Crater Lake (May, 2011)
Declining Mid-Elevation Snowfall 7,000 – 8,000 ft
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Average annual snowfall at Crater Lake HQ
From when data were first collected
Inches o
f snow
fall
Source: Crater Lake National Park
25% Reduction
N. California 1950 - 2000
Below 7500’ 13% declineAbove 7500’ 12% increase
Applegate Lake
By the end of the century, there may be 90%
reduction.
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980
2011
2010
2008
2009
2000-2009 was hottest
decade on record
Nine of the ten hottest years recordedoccurred in that decade
2012
Since 1970s + 1.3⁰FSince 1880s + app. 1.65⁰F
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
The 15 hottest year recordedare post 1997
Future Temperature Range
http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
There is much variability –depends on what we do.
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
Home
Incoming Visible light
Transformed toInfra-red radiation= heat – re-radiated
out
Some infra-red radiation is absorbed by
atmospheric gases (CO2, methane,
oxides of nitrogen)
Remainder escapes
into space
The Atmospheric “Greenhouse
Effect"
WARNING:Not drawn to scale
NOTE: Absorbency is
in lower atmosphere – which is
where we live
If atmospheric gas density increases,
more heat is retained by this ‘thermal
blanket’
Surface - LowerAtmosphere
War
min
g
Less escapes
into space
The CO2 / Temperature Pattern
Finally – Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation of Global
Warming…
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
B UT
23 X CO2 296 X CO2
Approximately 75% > 75%
The Problem
Greenhouse gases released by human activity:• Carbon dioxide• Methane• Oxides of nitrogen
2000 Global Emissions
Source: EPA’s Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Materials and Land Management Practices
2006 U.S. GHG Emissions: sectors viewU.S. Total GHG Emissions (2006) = 7.1 billion MT CO2e
What produces carbon emissions locally? Good Co, Eugene, OR GHG Inventory
http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf
Outline
Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN
http://socan.info Co-Facilitators:
Alan Journet [email protected] Kathy Conway [email protected]
MEETINGS: Last Tuesday of the month (except September 17th)Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm
General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pmMedford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.
Mission & Goal Statement The Mission of SOCAN is:
• To recognize the urgency for bold action against climate change• To promote awareness and understanding about the causes and
consequences of climate change• To develop solutions and motivate concerned citizens to take action
Our Goal:Collaborating with individuals and organizations throughout the world, we seek a reduction in the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to 350 parts per million. To achieve this, we encourage both personal and governmental actions that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from individual to global levels.
Focus Groups Community Education Green Energy Natural Resources Government
Projects Divestment from Fossil Fuels Climate change in the curriculum Weather Reporting Presentations Federal, State & Local Governments Networking Bear Creek Salmon Festival Booth (October 5, 2013)
Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire:What’s Behind the Curtain
What will you do to protect future generations?
http://socan.info
Want to Learn More?
'Climate Change and the Rogue Valley;' a ten week SOU/OLLI course; will be presented Thursdays 1:00 - 3:00 pm from September 12th at the SOU/RCC HEC in Medford - contact SOU/OLLI. (541) 552-6048 'A Rogue Climate for the Valley;' a three week Ashland North Mountain Park Nature Center course; Tuesdays 7:00 - 9:00 pm from October 1st - contact the Nature Center. (541) 488-6606 'A Rogue Climate for Our Valley;' three week Coyote Trails Jefferson Nature Center Course; Saturdays 1:00 - 3:00 pm from November 9th - contact Coyote Trails: 541-772-1390