Keeping Students on Track: Creating Statewide Pathways, Models, and Early Warning SystemsJoel Vargas, Jobs for the Future

American Diploma Project: State Leadership Team Meeting September 10, 2009

Percentage of 8th graders by SES who attain different levels of educationSource: Analysis of NELS data by Optimal Solutions for JFF

The Education Pipeline is Broken

Slide 3

Early Warning Systems

•Built on studies that show we can predict over half of dropouts by 6th grade and nearly 80% by 9th grade based on a few school related factors•States or districts can conduct studies to determine their strongest predictors and in what grades these first become predictive•With support, schools use this data to flag youth when they first start to fall off-track and build an on-time, responsive culture & intervention system•Best systems are tiered: utilize whole school, targeted, and intensive supports. The best work transforms school culture.

Slide 4

Pathway One: Starting College in High School

•Focused on improving college success of underrepresented young people. •Include “Blended” (secondary-post-secondary) schools and dual enrollment models •Combine college preparatory academic program with college course-taking •Blended schools (ECHS) offer compressed time to earn two years of college credits while in high school

Pathway Two: Back on Track

•Range of models tailored to needs of different groupings of off-track youth •Dual focus on strong college/career ready academic core and strong academic advising and social supports •Supports offered through community partnership model •Designed to enable credit recovery and acceleration for off-track and out-of-school youth

Two New Pathways to Success

Slide 5

Early Warning Systems: What is a State to Do?

•Conduct data study to surface key indicators and disseminate findings

•Create tools to help districts/schools use data for purposes of building early warning systems

•Set up and oversee data reporting and tracking systems

•Collect information on and determine highest impact interventions and disseminate best practices

Slide 6

Early Warning Systems: What is a State to Do?

List of students within a school

Age of Student

Total Enrollment Days

Intervention Codes

Total # of Referrals

Total Days Absence

Intervention Status

Louisiana

• Implemented DEWS in 46 districts (over half of total districts)

• Manage data and technical issues of system at state level

• Partnered with state university researchers to analyze historical data for predictive factors

• Provide grants for pilot phase• Require districts to develop 9th

grade intervention systems

Slide 7

Models, Options, Pathways: What is a State to Do?

•Analysis which points to the need for types of models based on key characteristics of segments of the off-track population. •Assess the extent to which existing models in the state can address those needs and identify need for additional options. •Examine & Change Policies: Alternative Education, Dropout Policies, Dual Enrollment Policies, Innovation Policies.•Specify role for creation of new models in tandem with turnaround strategies for existing schools. •Identify start-up resources and support for the capacity for new school development.

Slide 8

North Carolina

• Created Innovative Education Initiatives Act

• Dual Enrollment Policies: Enablers and Barriers

• Waiver Process• 82 Innovative High Schools• 69 Learn & Earn Early College

Schools• New Schools Project provides

support and coherence

North Carolina Early College High Schools

Slide 9

Impact: Early Warning Systems

Slide 10

82 Innovative Schools, 17,000 Students, 541 Dropouts

Impact: Models, Options, Pathways

Slide 11

Impact: Early Promise of Early College Schools

12

Comparative Student Performance:High School History Prior to Transfer School vs. After Enrolling at Transfer School

Before Transfer School At Transfer School

40%

78%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Att

endan

ce R

ate

Before Transfer School At Transfer School

4.9

8.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Cre

dit

s Ear

ned

per

Sch

ool Yea

r

* - Historically, these are students who are 16-17 years old and who have earned fewer than 11 credits.

Transfer schools are designed to effectively recoup the youngest, lowest-credited segment of the OA-UC population.*

Impact: NY Transfer Schools

13

Abbeville High School Data from Pinkus, Lyndsay (2008): Using Early-Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing Cracks in the Education System. Alliance for Excellent Education.

Kelvyn Park High School Data from Gewertz, Catherine (2009): 9th Grade, By the Numbers. Education Week, Published Online March 10, 2009.

Merrick, Patricia (2009): LA Dept. of Education Powerpoint Presentation given at College- and Career-Ready Policy Institute Leadership Meeting, Scottsdale, AZ. March 26, 2009.

New York City Data from Lynch, JoEllen (2008): Recuperative Programs and Accountability in New York City. Powerpoint presentation for Jobs for the Future, April 17, 2008.

North Carolina Data from New Schools Project (2009): News about High School Innovation. Innovator online newsletter, February 6, 2009.

Sources