Kevin Sheehan

Head of StrategyLondon Borough of Lewisham

7 June 2010

Lewisham Today

Lewisham, London and the wider region

Lewisham residents and businesses are well placed to access the employment and commercial opportunities

throughout London

London’s cultural offer

Where Lewisham residents travel to work

Mobility of Lewisham service users

4,120 young people travel to school in Lewisham from outside of the borough – which equates to 12% of our school population. 3,400 go the other way.

57% of Lewisham College students are from outside of the borough.

25% of Lewisham Hospital NHS Trust’s patients are from outside of the borough

22% of Goldsmiths, University of London students are from outside the UK

London’s economy has a strong specialism in business and financial services, compared to the UK and other countries

Industrial composition of London, Manchester and the UK compared to other countries (2007-08)

London’s economy: a thirty year shift from manufacturing to services

Employment in London by sector over time

Male employment rates

Male employment rates in London and UK over time

Female employment rates

Female employment rates in London & UK over time

London has a young, highly-qualified workforce compared to the UK

Age profile of residents 16+ in employment, 2008

However, Lewisham has the highest proportion of residents without Level 2 qualifications – and the 2nd lowest proportion

with Level 4Skills and Qualifications:

% of residents with qualifications below level of 5 GCSE's (Grade A*-C) or equivalent (Jan - Dec 2008)

11.9

13.6

14.3

14.6

14.7

15.2

15.3

15.5

15.8

16.1

17.7

15.2

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

Hackney

Kensington and Chelsea

Tower Hamlets

Camden

Wandsworth

Islington

Southwark

Lambeth

Westminster City

Hammersmith and Fulham

Lewisham

Inner London

Consequently, JSA claimants in Lewisham tend to aim for lower-skilled positions – where there is the highest

competition for jobsWhat jobs do Lewisham JSA claimants want?

By Broad Occupation Type and Broad Age Category, Lewisham Residents, September 2009

30

115 110

255

285

190

140

475

95

355

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 05 10 20

60

125

45 55

295

15

135

15

80 80

180

140115

75

165

65

190

10 20 15 20 15 25 15 10 1530

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 : Occupationunknown

1 : Managersand Senior

Officials

2 :ProfessionalOccupations

3 : AssociateProfessional

and TechnicalOccupations

4 :Administrative

andSecretarial

Occupations

5 : SkilledTrades

Occupations

6 : PersonalService

Occupations

7 : Sales andCustomerService

occupations

8 : Process,Plant andMachine

Operatives

9 : ElementaryOccupations

Total (all ages)

Total (-18)

Total (18-24)

Total (25-49)

Total (50 +)

This is reflected in the types of jobs Lewisham residents do –we have the smallest proportion of residents working in

banking, finance & insurance Occupations:

Breakdown of resident employment by sector, inner London boroughs, April 2008 to March 2009

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Camden Hammersmithand Fulham

Kensingtonand Chelsea

Lewisham TowerHamlets

Westminster London

Agriculture and fishing Energy and water ManufacturingConstruction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communicationsBanking, finance and insurance Public admin. education and health Other services

Despite low skill levels, Lewisham’s employment rate is the third highest in Inner London….

Employment rate by Inner London borough, Sept 09 (ONS)

78.271.6 71.4 68.3 68.1 67.8 66.6 65.6 65.5 64.1 63.5 61.0

56.3

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

Wandsw

orth

Lambeth

Lewish

am

Hackn

ey

Hammersm

ith an

d Fulh

amSou

thwark

Camde

nWestm

inster

Islingto

n

Kensin

gton a

nd C

helse

aHari

ngey

Tower

Hamlets

Newha

m

….and the JSA claimant rate has remained relatively steady over the last 12 months – with the gap with the London average narrowing slightly

JSA claimant rate, last 12 months

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Great Britain LondonLewisham

Lewisham has a relatively small economy, with the second lowest number of businesses in Inner

London

Active businesses by Inner London Borough, ONS 2008

45,965

24,375

15,230 13,800 13,550 12,845 12,375 11,750 11,490 11,305 10,7659,075 7,470 5,935

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

W

estm

inster

Cam

den

Wan

dswort

h

City

of Lo

ndon

Isl

ington

Sou

thwark

Ken

sington

and C

helse

a

Ham

mersmith

and F

ulham

Tow

er Hamlet

s

Lambe

th

Hackn

ey

Haring

ey

Lewish

am

Newha

m

House prices in Lewisham: 2009-10

Average house prices, 1995-2010

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Lewisham England & Wales London

Source: Land Registry

Numbers of households living in temporary accommodation in Lewisham

Number of Households living in Temporary Accommodation17

48

1724

1637

1596

1554

1496

1478

1381

1329

1294

1255

1242

1152

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Apr 0

9

May

09

Jun

09

Jul 0

9

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct

09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr 1

0

Month

Num

ber

Actual (YTD) Target (YTD)

The numbers living in temporary accommodation continues to fall.In April, performance of 1152 exceeded the target 1214 by 62.

Lewisham: people and place

2nd largest inner-London borough (3rd largest in terms of population with over 260,000 residents)

More than 800 voluntary and community organisations, and 200+ faith groups

15th most ethnically diverse local authority area in England with over 167 languages spoken

Strong neighbourhood and area identities – majority of residents recognise their neighbourhood as ‘my street and neighbouring streets’

Lewisham’s population has risen by over 7,000 since 2001, with continued growth predicted

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Belling

ham

Blackh

eath

Brockle

yCatf

ord S

outh

Crofton

Park

Downh

am

Evelyn

Fores

t Hill

Grove P

arkLa

dywell

Lee G

reen

Lewish

am C

entra

lNew

Cros

sPerr

y Vale

Rushe

y Gree

nSyd

enha

mTele

graph

Hill

Whit

efoot

pers

ons

(000

s)

2009 2015

Projected population growth by ward, 2009-15 (GLA)

Lewisham’s young population

Population projection pyramid, annual percentage of males and females, by single year of age, Lewisham and England 2008/9

1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%05

1015202530354045505560657075808590

Males Females

Change in ethnicity of Lewisham’s population, 2001-7

Changes in Lewisham's Ethnic Make-up 2001-2007, persons, % of total, source ONS 2001 Census and mid year estimates for 2007

65.9% 65.1%

23.4% 21.7%

3.8% 6.0%4.2% 4.3%2.7% 2.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2007

Other

Mixed

Asian or Asian British

Black British, African orCaribbean

White

Projected change in ethnicity of Lewisham’s population, 2009-15

Ethnic Group baseline year % compound growth

2009 2012 2015 2009-2015

population (000s)

%growth

White 158.3 157.8 157.8

-0.3% 0.0% -0.3%

Black African 29.6 31.1 32.4

5.1% 4.0% 9.4%

Black Caribbean 35.3 36.7 38.0

3.9% 3.5% 7.6%

All others 41.0 43.5 45.5

5.9% 4.8% 11.0%

Like most London boroughs, Lewisham has increasing levels of deprivation compared to the rest of England

Of 354 local authority areas in England, Lewisham is the 39th

most deprived

Lewisham has 166 ‘localities’ (LSOAs) of these:

• 64 are in England’s 20% most deprived

• 8 are in England’s 10% most deprived

Life expectancy in Lewisham is 18 months lower than the London average for men and women. Within the borough, there is an 8 year gap in life expectancy for men born in Blackheath and New Cross.

Life expectancy in Lewisham is over 12 months lower than the London average for men and women – however the gap is narrowing. Within the borough, there is an 8 year gap in life expectancy for men born in Blackheath and New Cross.

Life expectancy at birth, 1993-2008

66.00

68.00

70.00

72.00

74.00

76.00

78.00

80.00

82.00

84.00

1991-1993

1992-1994

1993-1995

1994-1996

1995-1997

1996-1998

1997-1999

1998-2000

1999-2001

2000-2002

2001-2003

2002-2004

2003-2005

2004-2006

2005-2007

2006-2008

Life expectancy at birth - England female Life expectancy at birth: London femaleLife expectancy at birth - Lewisham female Life expectancy at birth: England maleLife expectancy at birth: London male Life expectancy at birth: Lewisham male

Breakdown of the life expectancy gap by disease

Breakdown of the life expectancy gap by disease

Children and Young People Strategic Partnership

Adult Strategic Partnership

Safer Lewisham Partnership

Stronger Communities Partnership

Economic Development and Enterprise Board

Sustainable Development Partnership

LSP Board

Quarterly Performance Reporting to thematics

Exception Reports to LSP Board

Coordinating the six monthly performance reports from thematics

Public Services Board LSP Strategy Group

Partner Org Executive Management Teams

Six monthly performance reports to LSP Board

Lewisham Strategic Partnership: Structure

Ambitious and achieving: Where people are inspired and supported to fulfill their potential

• Record GCSE results in 2008-09 – 250 more pupils achieved Grades A*-C than the year before

• Gap narrowing in GCSE results between Black African & Black Caribbean pupils and peers, and pupils on Free School Meals and their peers

£300m secured to transform our schools through BSF programme - 9 schools already rebuilt or refurbished

Ambitious and achieving: Where people are inspired and supported to fulfill their potential

• Council one of only 10 LAs judged as performing ‘excellently’ in children’s services

• 75% of pupils participate in positive activities, well above national average

• Halved the number of NEETs between 2005 and 2009

• Goldsmiths, University of London rated 33rd in the country in the Times Higher Education league table, and 9th for research

• Lewisham College given Centre for Excellence in Leadership Award for Leadership In Innovation for Curriculum Development, and Learning and Skills Council Award for Equality and Diversity

Safer: Where people feel safe and live free from crime, antisocial behaviour and abuse

• Diamond Initiative has seen significant reduction in reoffendingamong offenders serving prison sentences of <12months

• Almost 2,000 fewer crimes committed in Lewisham in the last 12 months, compared to the previous 12 months (overall reduction of 6.5%)

• Reduction of 12.3% in acquisitive crime and 20% in domestic violence

• High trust and confidence in police and public services’ efforts to tackle crime in Lewisham

• Youth reoffending down from 90 per 100 offenders in 08-09 to 74 in 09-10

Empowered and responsible: Where people are actively involved in their local area and contribute to supportive communities

• Lewisham awarded CAA Green Flag for community empowerment • Local assemblies scheme continues to flourish, with over £1m spent on local

priorities• Phoenix Community Housing the first tenant-led Housing Association in

London • Volunteering opportunities increased through work of Volunteering Strategy

Steering Group and additional WNF funding • VAL reviewed process for VCS representation on Board, and held elections • 80% of FJF jobs delivered through VCS or private sector • Relaunch of Compact, and delivery of new set of Commissioning Principles

for the Council and Third Sector • Participatory budgeting approach developed

• 900 young people recruited to Young Citizens Panels Forum across the borough• Increased turn-out for Young Mayor scheme

Clean, green and liveable: Where people live in high quality housing and can care for and enjoy their environment

• Low landfill rates of 7.3% through use of local incinerator • Energy Action Zones: advice provided to 8,000 homes, saving 12,000

tonnes of carbon (equivalent to £1.2m over lifetime of measures)• Substantial investment by range of housing associations to improve

living conditions for thousands of Lewisham residents • On target to deliver over 1,200 new affordable homes by 2012• Over 800 properties brought back into use between 2005-08• Number of households in temporary accommodation reduced from

2,581 in March 2008 to 1,294 in Jan 2010

• Eight Lewisham parks awarded Green Flag status

Healthy, active and enjoyable: Where people can actively participate in maintaining and improving their health and well-being

• Life expectancy rising faster than the national average for men and women

• Reduction in proportion of low birth weight babies – ahead of target. • Breastfeeding rates at 6-8 weeks among 5 best PCT areas in country • Transfer of Community Services from NHS Lewisham to University

Hospital Lewisham• Progress continues (through Total Place) to formalise joint

commissioning between LBL and NHS Lewisham

• Opening of new facilities across the partnership – such as DownhamHealth & Leisure Centre, Kaleidoscope, Riverside Wing and Waldron Health Centre

Dynamic and prosperous: Where people are part of vibrant communities and town centres, well connected to London and beyond

• LSP held ‘Recession: Meeting the challenge’ event for Lewisham citizens – additional events held by RSLs

• Allocation of c.£4m of Working Neighbourhoods Funds, focusing on those furthest from the labour market and business, enterprise, town centres and third sector

• Significant investment to transform Catford, Lewisham and Deptford town centres

Dynamic and prosperous: Where people are part of vibrant communities and town centres, well connected to London and beyond

• JCP worked with partners to implement Young Person’s Guarantee, including 398 FJF jobs

• Apprenticeship scheme set up across public services• 2830 customers placed into work through Local

Employment Partnerships • LBL supported 119 businesses to start up, and

advised 550+ existing businesses

Lewisham has been at the forefront of the ‘more for less’ agenda, through our Total Place pilot

Total Place: a Government-led initiative looking at how a ‘whole area’ approach can lead to better services at a

lower cost.

Lewisham one of 13 pilot areas carrying out two main areas of work:

High level count: counting all the public money spent in each pilot area, across all public agencies. Approx figure for Lewisham is £2.3bn.

Detailed exploration of one or more themes. We have chosen the following four themes in Lewisham:

• Offender management • Health & social care • Assets and energy• Worklessness & unemployment

Despite our achievements, Lewisham faces a number of challenges in the months and years ahead – many linked to the recession.

JSA claimants, April 2008 to April 2010

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-0

8Ju

l-08

Aug-0

8Sep

-08

Oct-08

Nov-0

8Dec

-08

Jan-0

9Fe

b-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-0

9Ju

l-09

Aug-0

9Sep

-09

Oct-09

Nov-0

9Dec

-09

Jan-1

0Fe

b-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Inner London Lewisham Great BritainLondon

Claimant rates are predicted by the GLA to continue to rise into 2012, before a very gradual recovery over the next ten years

The number of JSA claimants in Lewisham rose from 5,675 in April 08 to 9,196 in April 10. This mirrors similarly steep rises across the country.

Employment opportunities have diminished – particularly the types of jobs young people want

Total Claimants by Sought Occupation and Total Unfilled VacanciesLewisham, September 2009, by Broad Job Type

115 110

255

285

190

140

475

95

355

10 20

60

125

45 55

295

15

135

3315

4122

4059

3723

73

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Managers andSenior Officers

ProfessionalOccupations

AssociateProfessional

and TechnicalOccupations

Administrativeand Secretarial

Occupations

Skilled TradesOccupations

PersonalService

Occupations

Sales andCustomer

ServiceOccupations

Process, Plantand MachineOperatives

ElementaryOccupations

All Claimants

18-24 Claimants

Vacancies

•Number of claimants outstrips vacancies for all types of jobs. •Young people particularly want to work in Sales and Customer Service. •This sector has few vacancies, and young people are in competition with a number of adults for jobs too.

The ratio of low skilled residents to low skilled jobs is particularly high in London – which is likely to hit Lewisham

residents harder than most

Economic recovery is likely to be a long process

Managing the recovery: the three waves of recession

WAVE 1: Economic

Relatively short period where economic output declines,

unemployment rises quickly, and real

income falls

WAVE 2: Social

Growth returns, but job losses continue –

bringing with it increasing social problems such as

housing, health and domestic problems

WAVE 3: Unequal Recovery

Overall, economy is in recovery. However,

not all areas benefit –some continue to

decline, suffering long-term unemployment, low aspirations, long-

term ill health and cohesion issues

Source: Social Exclusion Task Force, Learning from the Past, Dec 2009

Although overall crime has fallen, there has been a rise of 10% in serious youth violence

10%6.5%

9%

20%

Overall crime

Acquisitive crime

Domestic violence

2.5%

Serious youth violence

Residential burglary

51

29

27

27

22

20

18

15

15

13

13

10

10

9

Crime

Traffic congestion

Lack of jobs

Prov. for young people**

Level of Council Tax

Litter

Standard of education

Pollution

Rising Prices / Interest Rates**

Quality of health service

Lack of rec. facilities

Public transport

Prov, for elderly

Homelessness

%

Areas of concern for Lewisham residents

**Please note: Base for Prov. for young people (512) & Rising Prices/ Interest Rates (510)

Source: Q11 Which three, of these, are you personally most concerned about? Base: All Lewisham Residents (1022)

*Lack of affordable housing removed from 09/10 Survey

Diff to 2007/08

-2

+5+13

+7-2

+1

+2-2-1+1

-6-1

-4-2

What people think they want

A recent MORI poll showed that:

• 54% were in favour of cuts in public spending, with 39% against. 47% in favour and 46% against when potential consequences of cuts are spelt out in detail

• 85% favour greater local control over public services, but only 63% do so when it is made clear that this will lead to local variations

• 49% strongly agree that people should get more involved in improving services/local areas – but only 28% would get involved themselves

Summary of future challenges over medium to long term

JSA claimants at historically high levels

Lewisham residents have a low skills set when compared to other Inner London boroughs –forecasts for growth are in specialist sectors

Although the gap in life expectancy has narrowed, significant health inequalities remain

Summary of future challenges over medium to long term

Challenge to bring Lewisham’s homes up to Decent Homes Standard

Recession likely to lead to medium to longer term social problems

Spending cuts present a major challenge to partners’ abilities to meet citizens’ needs

Serious youth violence on the rise

Challenges for the future

• Implementing Total Place– Worklessness & unemployment – Offender Management – Health & Social Care– Assets & Energy

• Commissioning and the third sector • Health inequalities• Jobs & opportunities for young people• Investing in social capital/LSP event • New Local Area Agreement