key findings utility & environmental implications table 5b: generation capacity mix at selected...
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Key FindingsKey Findings
Utility & Environmental ImplicationsUtility & Environmental Implications
Table 5b: Generation capacity mix at selected energy tax rates in year 2025
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Power Generation Capacity Mix at year 2025 (MW)
Energy tax rate ($/Mbtu) 0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Hydro 17640 17910 17910 18297 18090 18187
Coal 21400 17800 16600 10300 10000 6000
FO+DO 725 725 725 725 725 725
Gas 9490 11230 10795 11230 5290 3820
Import 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
RETs 20 419 464 9214 9400 9400
Total capacity (MW) 53000 51809 49494 53491 47230 41857
Shares in Power Generation Capacity at year 2025 (%)
Energy tax rate ($/Mbtu) 0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Hydro 33.28 34.57 36.19 34.21 38.30 43.45
Coal 40.38 34.36 33.54 19.26 21.17 14.33
FO+DO 1.37 1.40 1.46 1.36 1.54 1.73
Gas 17.91 21.68 21.81 20.99 11.20 9.13
Import 5.66 5.79 6.06 5.61 6.35 7.17
RETs 0.04 0.81 0.94 17.23 19.90 22.46
Key FindingsKey Findings
Utility & Environmental ImplicationsUtility & Environmental Implications
Table 6b: Electricity generation mix at selected Energy tax rates during 2006-2025
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Electricity Generation (GWh)
Energy tax rate ($/Mbtu) 0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Hydro 1218881 1224940 1221503.5 1212859 1213150 1123073
Coal 1052220 905567 823518 665492 542100 165512
FO+DO 26941 26941 26941 26941 26941 26941
Gas 748413 797472 766782 776810 316066 220408
Import 333450 333450 333450 333450 333450 332143
RETs 1872 18097 32886 84492 213814 213814
Total generation 3410219 3336436 3232886.5 3134234 2673953 2109476
Shares in Electricity Generation (%)
Energy tax rate ($/Mbtu) 0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Hydro 35.74 36.71 37.78 38.70 45.37 53.24
Coal 30.85 27.14 25.47 21.23 20.27 7.85
FO+DO 0.79 0.81 0.73 0.86 1.01 1.28
Gas 21.95 23.90 23.72 24.78 11.82 10.45
Import 9.78 9.99 10.31 10.64 12.47 15.75
RETs 0.05 0.54 1.02 2.70 8.00 10.14
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig1b: Installed generation capacity by fuel types at selected energy tax rates in year 2025
Fig2b:Electricity generation by fuel types during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Capacity
(M
W)
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Import
FO & DO
RETs
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Ele
ctr
icity
genera
tion (
GW
h)
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Import
FO & DO
RETs
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig3b: Total electricity generation by hydro during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates
Fig4b:Electricity generation by coal during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ele
ctr
icity g
enera
tion (
GW
h)
Base case
0.5$/Mbtu case
1$/Mbtu case
2$/Mbtu case
5$/Mbtu case
10$/Mbtu case
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ele
ctr
icity
genera
tion (
GW
h)
Base case
0.5$/Mbtu case
1$/Mbtu case
2$/Mbtu case
10$/Mbtu case
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig5b: Total electricity generation by gas during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates
Fig6b: Change in consumption by fossil fuels during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ele
ctr
icity
genera
tion (
GW
h)
Base case
0.5$/Mbtu case
1$/Mbtu case
2$/Mbtu case
5$/Mbtu case
10$/Mbtu case
-81.51
66.90
88.07
-73.71
-42.23-34.08
-17.89-11.010
13.37
0
22.15
39.54 42.48
65.58
0.000.000
49.26
24.1717.69
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 25 50 100 200
Fu
el c
on
sum
ptio
n (
%)
Coal
Gas
FO & DO
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig7b: Effects of energy tax on power generation technology mix in year 2025
Fig8b: Generation mix during the planning period at different carbon tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Technology Mix: Vietnam
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
0 0.5 1 2 5 10
Tax ($/ MBtu)hydro coal supercriticaloil GT NGCCImport Mini hydro GeothermalWind
Generation Mix in Vietnam
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 0.5 1 2 5 10 Tax ($/ MBtu)
Coal Nat_gasOil HydroImport Renewable
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig9b: Reduction in total capacity addition due to energy tax
Fig10b: Reduction in total generation due to energy tax
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Reduction in total generation capacity addition due to Energy tax (%)
Tax ($/Mbtu)-10
10
20
30
40
50
1.0 2.0 5.0 10.00.5
Reductions in total Generation due to Energy Tax (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0
Tax ($/MBtu)
Key FindingsKey Findings
Table 7b: Weighted average thermal generation efficiency during the planning horizonat selected energy tax rates, %
Table 8b: Weighted average loss of load probability and cumulative expected energy not served during 2006-2025 at various energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Energy tax rate(US$/Mbtu)
Weighted averageLOLP (%)
EENS
GWh %#
0 0.00327 2588.7 0.07591
0.5 0.0032 2517.5 0.07545
1 0.00242 1947.6 0.06007
2 0.00183 1397.6 0.04459
5 0.000001 0.2 0.00001
10 1E-07 0.09 0.00000
Energy tax rate(US$/Mbtu)
Weighted average thermal generation efficiency (%)
0 37.23
0.5 38.14
1 36.69
2 39.33
5 36.12
10 38.95
Key FindingsKey Findings
Table 9b: CO2 and local emissions mitigation reduction at different energy tax rates during the whole planning period, %
Fig10b: Cumulative CO2 & local emissions reduction (%) during the planning
horizon at different selected energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Energy tax(US$/MBtu)
Vietnam
CO2 SO2 NOx
0.5 8.8 6.95 10.49
1.0 15.3 10.62 18.87
2.0 26.1 20.64 31.03
5.0 47.7 23.84 55.30
10.0 78.1 68.90 77.11
53.48
20.0917.56
10.62
4.73
5.73
18.8722.79
27.54
46.15
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
0.5 1 2 5 10
Cum
ula
tive e
mis
sio
n r
eduction (
%)
SO2
NOx
CO2
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig11b: Cumulative SO2 emission emitted during the planning horizon at different selected energy tax rates
Fig12b: Cumulative NOx emission emitted during the planning horizon at different selected energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
SO
2 e
mis
sio
n (
ton)
Base case
0.5$/Mbtu case
1$/Mbtu case
2$/Mbtu case
5$/Mbtu case
10$/Mbtu case
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
NO
x e
mis
sio
n (
ton)
Base case
0.5$/Mbtu case
1$/Mbtu case
2$/Mbtu case
5$/Mbtu case
10$/Mbtu case
Key FindingsKey Findings
Fig13b: CO2 emission intensity in term of per unit of electricity generation at different selected energy tax rates
Fig14b: Cumulative CO2 emission reduction (%) during the planning horizon tax at various selected energy tax rates
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
53.48
20.0917.56
10.62
4.73
5.73
18.8722.79
27.54
46.15
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
0.5 1 2 5 10
Cum
ula
tive
em
issio
n r
edu
ctio
n (
%)
SO2
NOx
CO2
23008.96
14472.5213634.576
12473.374
10214.311
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0.5 1 2 5 10
CO
2 e
mis
sio
n inte
nsity p
er
unit o
f energ
y tax
Key FindingsKey Findings
Table 10b: The share of supply side effect and demand side effect to the total CO2 mitigation during the planning horizon at selected energy tax rates, %
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Energy tax(US$/MBtu)
Vietnam
SSE DSE
0.5 47.29 52.71
1.0 47.27 52.73
2.0 62.42 37.58
5.0 37.68 62.32
10.0 34.71 65.29
Note:SSE = CO2 mitigation due to supply side effect
DSE = CO2 mitigation due to demand side effect
Key FindingsKey FindingsCost ImplicationCost Implication
Table 11b: Average incremental cost (AIC) during the planning horizon at selected energy tax rates(US¢/kWh)
Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax
Energy tax(US$/MBtu)
Vietnam
0 2.70
0.5 3.04
1.0 3.36
2.0 4.04
5.0 5.43
10.0 7.70
Country AIC Total cost
Vietnam
10.3 11.7
Table 12b: Percentage increment in Average Incremental Cost and Total Cost with energytax compared to carbon tax for a 10% reduction in total CO2emissions