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AN INVESTIGATION INTO INDUSTRY OPTIMAL GEARING
RATIO TARGETING BY FIRMS IN KENYA
BY
KIMANI RUHANGA
REG NO: D53/RI/11519/2004
A RESEARCH PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO THE
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, KENYATTA UNIVERSITY
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR
THE AWARD OF A DEGREE OF MASTERS OF BUSINESS
ADMINISTRATION
KENYATTA UNIVERSITY
JULY 2012
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DECLARATION
This research proposal is my original work and has not been carried out in any other
institution for examination purposes
Signed: . Date:
KIMANI RUHANGA
REG NO: D53/RI/11519/2004
The research proposal has been submitted for defence with my approval as the student
supervisor
Mr. F. NDEDE
Signed: . Date:
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
It has been a long journey since I started my course work and it would be impossible
not to remember those who in one way or another, directly or indirectly, have played
a role in the realization of this research project. Let me, therefore, thank them all
equally.
I am indebted to the God for his blessings which have enabled me reach this far. I am
deeply obliged to my supervisor for his exemplary guidance and support without
whose help; this project would not have been a success. Finally, yet importantly, I
take this opportunity to express my deep gratitude to my loving family and friends
who are a constant source of motivation and for their never ending support and
encouragement all through.
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DEDICATION
I dedicate this study to my family, and especially my wife, for the support,
understanding and encouragement provided over the years of my studies and as I
prepared and worked on this project.
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ABSTRACT
Despite significant theoretical and empirical developments in the capital structure
literature, the question of optimal gearing ratio still remains a big source of debate,
and more so the existence and targeting of an optimal gearing ratio by firms. Review
of literature on capital structure indicates arguments for the existence of an optimal
ratio, implying a target ratio, while empirical findings show that gearing ratios vary
significantly by industry and that different industries have different optimal gearing
ratios that are a function of their business risk. Other research rationalizes
industry norm targeting behaviour, by arguing that firms choose gearing ratios which
suit their particular business risk. The objective of this study is to investigate industry-
optimal gearing ratio targeting by firms in Kenya. The study will be conducted by
researching into the movement of the capital gearing ratios, over the period 2006 to
2011, of firms whose shares are quoted on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, in order
to determine whether the firms target an optimal capital gearing ratio over time. The
study will purposively sample firms in two sectors; manufacturing and those in
communication and technology.The study is expected to contribute new knowledge
to this debate and benefit scholars by providing additional knowledge on capital
structure and gearing ratios, enlighten investors and managers on short-term and long-term gearing and financing decisions and in addition influence government and policy
makers in policy development.
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TABLE OF CONTENT
DECLARATION ...........................................................................................................ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..........................................................................................iii
DEDICATION ..............................................................................................................ivABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................v
CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................ 1
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background of the study .......................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of the problem ........................................................................................ 2
1.3 Objective of the study .............................................................................................. 3
1.4 Hypothesis ................................................................................................................3
1.4.1 Research hypotheses testing ..................................................................................3
1.5 Significance of the study ..........................................................................................3
1.6 Scope of the study ....................................................................................................4
1.7 Limitations of the study ........................................................................................... 4
1.8 Assumptions of the study ......................................................................................... 5
LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................................. 6
2.1 Theoretical rreview ................................................................................................ 6
2.2 Empirical review .................................................................................................... 7
2.2.1 Effect of an industry-optimal gearing ratio targeting .......................................... 9
2.3 Knowledge gap .....................................................................................................10
CHAPTER THREE ..................................................................................................... 12
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ....................................................... 12
3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................12
3.2 Research design .....................................................................................................12
3.3 Population .............................................................................................................. 13
3.4 Sampling techniques .............................................................................................. 13
3.5 Sample size ............................................................................................................14
3.6 Data collection .......................................................................................................14
3.7 Data analysis .......................................................................................................... 14
Regression Model with control variables .....................................................................15
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 16
APPENDIX I: TIME PLAN ........................................................................................21
APPENDIX II: BUDGET ............................................................................................22
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study
Since the arguments put forward in the capital structure irrelevancy proposition by
Modigliani and Miller (1958), research and debate on capital structure have been
intense but somewhat inconclusive, despite significant theoretical and empirical
developments in the capital structure literature. The question of optimal gearing ratio
still remains a big source of debate, and more so the existence and targeting of an
optimal gearing ratio by firms. Review of literature on capital structure indicates
arguments for the existence of an optimal ratio, implying a target ratio, while
empirical findings show that gearing ratios vary significantly by industry and that
different industries have different optimal gearing ratios that are a function of their
business risk. Some researchers rationalize industry norm targeting behaviour, by
arguing that firms choose gearing ratios which suit their particular business risk, while
other research indicates that accounting for debt tax shields and financial distress
costs counters the capital structure irrelevancy proposition and leads to an optimal
gearing ratio which maximises firm value Bradley et al. (1984). Other researchers
argue that industry classification impacts significantly upon the firm's gearing
decision and that each firm targets the average (or norm) gearing ratio of its industry,
since the benefits and costs of debt vary significantly across industries. Ang (1976)
argues that the existence of an optimal gearing ratio implies the existence of a target
ratio. More recently, Antoniou et al. (2002) find that firms adjust their debt ratios
towards targets, but at different speeds depending on their industry, suggesting that
environmental conditions are important drivers of targeting behaviour.
There is no consensus on how capital structure ratios and their components should be
defined. Certain ratios stress the importance of market rather than book values, whilst
other ratios emphasise the importance of balance sheet values, especially if
substantially different from market values. Bowman (1980) and Marsh (1982) find
that book measures of gearing are statistically indistinguishable from market value
measures. However, book and market gearing ratios are conceptually different. Book
measures are by definition backward-looking due to their reliance on accounting
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data whereas market values are generally held to be forward looking. Thus, there is
no reason why these two concepts should match Barclay et al., (2006). Harris and
Raviv (1991) and Rajan and Zingales (1995) employ gearing ratios in their empirics
using book values for debt and market values for equity, a compromise employed
widely in the empirical literature.
Another important issue is whether short-term debt should be included in a definition
of gearing as its omission may lead to an understatement of financial distress risk.
Rajan and Zingales (1995) and Tucker (1995) find that while there is large variation
across industries,
Most capital structure studies to date are based on data from developed countries.
Antoniou et al. (2002) analyse data from the UK, Germany and France, Rajan and
Zingales (1995) use data from the G-7 countries, Bevan and Danbolt (2000) from the
UK. Only a few studies provide evidence from developing countries. Booth et al,
(2001) analyse data from ten developing countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, South
Korea, Jordan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and Zimbabwe), Pandey (2001)
uses data from Malaysia, Chen (2004) utilise data from China, Omet and Nobanee
(2001) use data from Jordan and Al-Sakran (2001) analyses data from Saudi Arabia.
This study attempts to reduce the gap by analysing a capital structures from firms in
the developing world, and more specifically Kenya. Booth et al, (2001) state that, In
general, debt ratios in developing countries seem to be affected in the same way and
by the same types of variables that are significant in developed countries. However,
there are systematic differences in the way these ratios are affected by country factors,
such as GDP growth rates, inflation rates, and development of capital markets. This
study is also intended to provide further evidence of the capital structure theories
pertaining to a developing country.
1.2 Statement of the problem
The study is an investigation into industry optimal gearing ratio targeting by firms in
Kenya. Though scholars have over the years hinted on the existence of an optimal
capital gearing ratio and the endeavour by firms to target an optimal gearing ratio, the
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research so far is inconclusive and therefore the existence of a gap for research. Most
studies on capital structure and gearing ratios are based on data from developed
countries. This study attempts to reduce the gap by analysing a capital structures from
firms in the developing world, and more specifically Kenya.
1.3 Objective of the study
The objective of this study is to investigate industry-optimal gearing ratio targeting by
firms in Kenya.
The specific objectives are:
i. To establish the effect of short-term debt on optimum gearing ratio;
ii. To establish the effect of optimum gearing ratio on financial distress risk; and
iii. To establish the effect of optimum gearing ratio targeting on capital structures.
1.4 Hypothesis
By testing the movement in capital gearing ratios over time we are implicitly testing
the hypothesis of the targeting of an industry optimal capital gearing ratio.
1.4.1 Research hypotheses testing
The study will test the following hypotheses:
Hypotheses I:
H0: Short-term debts have an insignificant effect on the optimum gearing ratio
H1: Short-term debts have a significant effect on the optimum gearing ratio
Hypotheses II:
H0: The optimum gearing ratio has an insignificant effect on financial distress risk
H1: The optimum gearing ratio has a significant effect on financial distress risk
Hypotheses III:
H0: Optimum gearing ratio targeting has an insignificant effect on capital structure
H1: Optimum gearing ratio targeting has a significant effect on capital structure.
1.5 Significance of the study
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1.8 Assumptions of the study
The study hypothesis assumes that short-term debts have an insignificant effect on the
optimum gearing ratio, the optimum gearing ratio has a significant effect on financial
distress risk, while optimum gearing ratio targeting has a significant effect on capitalstructure. This study also assumes that the firms listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange
are representative of firms in Kenya and the findings of this study can be generalised
to firms in Kenya.
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CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This section provides a review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature.
Theoretical arguments suggest the existence of optimal gearing ratios and the implicit
endeavour by firms by attain the optimal gearing ratio.
2.1 Theoretical rreview
Review of literature on capital structures indicates that past research findings broadly
support the existence of optimal gearing ratios implying the incidence of targetgearing behaviour within firms. Central to this understanding of financing behaviour
is the trade-off theory which asserts that an optimal gearing ratio is reached by the
firm at the point where the marginal benefits of employing debt, such as interest tax
shields, equals its marginal costs such as financial distress and bankruptcy costs Kim
(1978). Further, an optimal gearing ratio may also be reached by trading off the
agency costs and benefits of debt Jensen and Meckling (1976). Francis and Leachman
(1994), Leary and Roberts (2005) and Flannery and Rangan (2006) for US firms, and
Ozkan (2001), Antoniou et al. (2002), Bunn and Young (2004) and Beattie et al.
(2006), amongst others, provide evidence in support of targeting behaviour.
Bradley et al. (1984) and Flannery and Rangan (2006) argue that the optimal gearing
ratio varies for firms in different industries because it is the typical asset structures
and the stability of earnings which determine inherent risks vary across industries.
Firms in cyclical sectors such as leisure firms will suffer greater variability in
profitability, while other firms, such as information technology firms, are subject to
technological risks and typically employ firm-specific non-accounting assets which
have value only when employed by a going concern entity. Further, they suggest
intuitively that firms characterised by high operating risk are more susceptible to
financial distress. Additionally, Brealey and Myers (2001) argue that high growth
sectors such as biotechnology may experience high agency costs through restrictions
imposed by lenders to reduce the greater opportunities for asset substitution. The
degree of competition can impact upon the capital structure decisions of the firm.
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Therefore, the impact of determinants on capital structures may vary significantly
across industries. Optimal gearing ratios will vary across industries not just in terms
of magnitude but also in terms of ratio definition. For example, the optimal total debt
to total assets employed ratio for the textile industry may be, say 40 percent while for
the oil industry it may be 50 percent. However, the optimal ratio to target for
information technology firms may be, say 10 percent as measured by the total debt to
market value equity ratio.
The proposition of the existence of a target ratio of course raises the issue of optimal
adjustment policy. Fischeret al. (1989), Mauer and Triantis (1994), Dissanaike et al.
(2001) and Flannery and Rangan (2006) argue that some researchers fail to
acknowledge the multiple time periods required by firms to achieve their target capital
structure ratios. This particular dynamic problem lies at the heart of the capital
structure debate: do firms fully adjust their debt ratios to new information within one
accounting period (typically one year) or does adjustment take longer? To address this
issue, a functional form that permits partial adjustment of the firm's initial gearing
ratio to its target must be specified. Estimating target gearing in a simple cross-
sectional regression implicitly assumes that firms always attain their target gearing
ratios within one time period. However, if adjustment costs are non-trivial,
unrealistically restricting the adjustment speed to equal unity will bias coefficient
estimates.
While Flannery and Rangan (2006) found that US firms have target gearing ratios,
they also found that the sample average debt ratio over the period 1966-2001 is very
volatile. Fischeret al. (1989) developed a model of dynamic optimal gearing choice
and demonstrated that debt ratios are characterized by wide swings. These findings
suggest that firms do not identify a strict, single optimal capital structure ratio as such,
but rather a range over which their capital structures are allowed to vary.
2.2 Empirical review
Review of studies on targeting behaviour suggests that instead of a unique gearing
ratio to which firms immediately adjust, firms may engage in a multi-period
adjustment if actual gearing ratios are outside the optimal range. This implies that
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gearing studies should employ methods capable of modelling the dynamic adjustment
of capital structures undertaken by firms in the real world. It may be understood that
that gearing decisions would improve if econometric methodologies enabled some
synthesis of competing capital structure theories. The approach taken in this study
facilitates the testing of such a synthesis model.
Not only do we seek to determine empirically the nature of the targeting behaviour of
firms but also which industries are expected to be more prone to targeting behaviour.
A further question then, concerns which ratios we might expect to observe as being
targeted. We might expect firms in cash rich, mature industries with abundant cash
flows to take on more debt and target industry ratios as a form of management
discipline Jensen (1986). Additionally, firms with unique and/or specialised products,
tangible and liquid assets, and high asset turnover would be expected to target their
gearing ratios Titman and Wessels (1988). Firms in these industries should, in theory,
target book value gearing ratios and/or total debt to total assetsemployed ratios. Well-
established may attempt to target, or should monitor, market-value gearing ratios as
they recognize that establishment brings with it know-how and extra earning power
which is difficult to capture in a gearing measure otherwise; hence the market value of
the firm would be significantly different from its book value.
Industries dominated by small firms, such as the leisure industry, and cyclical
industries or industries with longer operating cycles, such as the building industry, are
more likely to target total debt gearing ratios Titman and Wessels (1988). On the
other hand, industries which are characterized by large firms which employ
significant amounts of fixed (tangible) assets rather than current assets, such as the
utilities and real estate industries will typically monitor and target ratios with long-
term debt and total assets employed as components. This is due to the easier access of
member firms to bond markets at non-prohibitive costs, that is, they enjoy significant
debt issue cost economies Bevan and Danbolt, (2000).
Industries which as considered as young such as information technology, with
significant non-accounting assets, are expected to target ratios with total debt as a
component according to the well-accepted maturity matching principle that tangibles
are best financed with long-term debt and growth opportunities with short-term debt
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Myers, (1977); Barclay et al. (1995). In industries where non-accounting assets are
the most important asset class, we would expect firms to target market value gearing
ratios as opposed to book value ratios. However, because the common practice in
these industries is to retain rather than to distribute earnings, we would expect to find
some evidence of firms targeting ratios which include retained earnings (i.e. ratios
which include total equity rather than base equity capital alone). However, the more
heterogeneous an industry is, the less likely it is that the results will conform to
expectations.
2.2.1 Effect of an industry-optimal gearing ratio targeting
The objective of this study is to investigate whether industry-optimal targeting arises
in the long run while a hierarchy of financing arises in the short run. The relationship
between measures of corporate capital structure is investigated using the Johansen co-
integration test. The application of this technique represents an improvement upon the
cross sectional tests often employed in the capital structure literature as it tries to
capture the financing behaviour of firms in a dynamic rather than static framework.
Further, it allows for variability in gearing ratios and adjustment to a target in a multi-
period framework, a common finding in the literature. Examining the target gearingbehaviour of firms at the industry level necessarily involves a trade-off between
information loss and results generalisation. It is easier to generalise results if we
aggregate the data at the market level, though we may lose useful information
regarding firm-level gearing correction because at this level any changes will be very
small. While there are limits to the change in capital sources from year to year (for
instance, bank borrowing may well remain stable), the variation of gearing ratio
components for individual firms will be much greater than the variation of the
aggregated gearing ratio components. Conversely, while firm-level analysis retains all
information available, it is not clear how generalisable the results may be. Further,
given that business risk and other gearing determinants are often assumed to be
similar for firms in a given industry, by aggregating at the industry level, we retain the
most essential information while also retaining results generalisation.
There is no consensus on how capital structure ratios and their components should be
defined. Certain ratios stress the importance of market rather than book values, whilst
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other ratios emphasise the importance of balance sheet values, especially if
substantially different from market values. Bowman (1980) and Marsh (1982) find
that book measures of gearing are statistically indistinguishable from market value
measures. However, book and market gearing ratios are conceptually different. Book
measures are by definition backward-looking due to their reliance on accounting
data whereas market values are generally held to be forward looking. Thus, there is
no reason why these two concepts should match Barclay et al., (2006). Harris and
Raviv (1991) and Rajan and Zingales (1995) employ gearing ratios in their empirics
using book values for debt and market values for equity, a compromise employed
widely in the empirical literature.
Another important issue is whether short-term debt should be included in a definition
of gearing as its omission may lead to an understatement of financial distress risk.
Rajan and Zingales (1995) and Tucker (1995) find that while there is large variation
across industries,
2.3 Knowledge gap
Most capital structure studies to date are based on data from developed countries.Antoniou et al. (2002) analyse data from the UK, Germany and France, Rajan and
Zingales (1995) use data from the G-7 countries, Bevan and Danbolt (2000) from the
UK. Only a few studies provide evidence from developing countries. Booth et al,
(2001) analyse data from ten developing countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, South
Korea, Jordan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and Zimbabwe), Pandey (2001)
uses data from Malaysia, Chen (2004) utilise data from China, Omet and Nobanee
(2001) use data from Jordan and Al-Sakran (2001) analyses data from Saudi Arabia.
This study attempts to reduce the gap by analysing a capital structures from firms in
the developing world, and more specifically Kenya. Booth et al, (2001) state that, In
general, debt ratios in developing countries seem to be affected in the same way and
by the same types of variables that are significant in developed countries. However,
there are systematic differences in the way these ratios are affected by country factors,
such as GDP growth rates, inflation rates, and development of capital markets. This
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study is also intended to provide further evidence of the capital structure theories
pertaining to a developing country.
2.4 Conceptual frameworkThe researcher has developed the framework outlined below to explain the
relationships of the variables under investigation and the overall study objective.
Independent Variable Moderating Variables Dependent Variable
Figure 1
Figure 1
11
Short-term debt to
equity
Distress risk
Long-run total debt to
total assets
Long-run total debt to
market value of equity
Long-run total debt to
total equity
Finance costs
Co-lateral
Government policy
Shareholder preferences
Optimum gearingratio
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CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
This chapter discusses the research methodology that will be adopted in order to meet
the objectives of the study. Included in this chapter are the research design, study
population, sampling method, data collection tools, and data analysis tools to be used
to be used in the study.
3.2 Research design
The study will use a cross-sectional survey design as this allows the observation of the
full population, or a sample thereof, at a specific point in time. This method has been
selected because the researcher seeks to collect data from a cross-section of firms at
one point in time. It is important to note that cross-sectional studies involve data
collected at a defined time and they often rely on data originally collected for other
purposes. In this case the researcher will study financial data presented on annual
audited financial statements of the firms selected.
The study involves the analysis of the movement of each firms gearing ratio over
time and to capture the financing behaviour of firms in a dynamic rather than static
framework. The researcher will improve on the cross sectional tests by applying co
integration analysis, to allow for the variability of gearing ratios and the adjustment to
a target in a multi-period framework, results commonly found in the literature
Dissanaike et al., (2001); Flannery and Rangan, (2006). Implicitly, this technique tests
a synthesis model of capital structure determination where the long-run gearing ratio
is determined by the trade-off theory while the short-run variations may be driven by
the pecking order theory.
3.2.1 Definition and measurement of variables
The study involves the analysis of the movement of the capital gearing ratios of firms
over time to determine the existence of optimum capital gearing ratio targeting. The
various components of gearing ratios are shown in the table below.
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Table 1: Gearing ratio constituents
Variable Label Datastream
code
Definition
Book value of equity BE 305 (Ln of) Book value of equity
at balance sheet date
Market value of equity ME HMV (Ln of) Market value of
equity at balance sheet date
Total assets employed A 391 (Ln of) The sum of all assets
less current liabilities
Book value of equity plus
reserves
TE 307 (Ln of) Book value of equity
and reserves at balance sheet
date
Long-term debt D 321 (Ln of) All loans repayable
in more than one year
Short-term debt SD 318 (Ln of) All loans payable in
one year or less
Total debt TD (Ln of) The sum of long-
term and short-term debt
Book value of total capital
employed
TDBE (Ln of) The sum of total
debt and book value ofequity
Book value of total capital
employed and reserves
TDTE (Ln of) The sum of total
debt and total equity
Market value of total
capital employed
TDME (Ln of) The sum of total
debt and market value of
equity
3.3 Population
The study will be conducted by researching into the movement of the capital gearing
ratios of firms whose shares are listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
3.4 Sampling techniques
In order to sample different determinants of gearing ratios, whether based on asset
book values or market values the study will purposively sample listed firms in two
sectors; manufacturing and technology.
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3.5 Sample size
Out of the 56 firms listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange the researcher will
purposively sample those in two sectors; manufacturing and technology, which are 7
in number. In the opinion of the researcher manufacturing firms are characterised by
significant amounts of tangibles assets, and those likely to base their optimal gearing
ratios on total assets to debt, while those in technology are likely to hold insignificant
amounts in tangible assets and may prefer to base their optimum gearing ratio on the
market value of the firm.
3.6 Data collectionThe study will use secondary data, and involves the collection of quantitative data
from published audited annual financial statements of the firms sampled and data
obtained from the Nairobi Securities Exchange database.
The data required is:
i. The balance sheet amounts of the companies equity, liabilities and assets; and
ii. Daily stock prices to compute the market value of the firms equity.
The data will be collected by the use of tables and spreadsheets.
3.7 Data analysis
The data will be analyzed using regression analysis. This will be aided by the use of
Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), a computer statistical analysis
program. The data will be analysed using descriptive statistics. The results will be
tested using student T- test to test the significance of the data. Regression analysis
will be carried out to establish the relationship and correlation of the variables. The
model to be used is the one that was successfully used by Mamoghli and Dhouibi
(2009) to study optimum gearing ratio and insolvency risk in emerging markets.
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The researcher will use the following regression model to analyze the data collected:
Regression Model with control variables
The Regression Model will test for the number of the characteristic roots that are
significantly different from unity can be constructed using the following two test
statistics:
+=
=n
ri
itrace Tr
1
^
)1ln()( (1)
)1ln()1,( 1^
max +=+ rTrr (2)
1 1 1, 1 2, 1 1( )t t t t x a x x e = + (3)
2 2 1, 1 2, 1 2( )t t t t x a x x e = + (4)
The general form of the panel model can be specified more exactly as: to check the
consistency of the ECM results, in addition to TD/(BE+RE) ratio, we also examine
the adjustment speed coefficients ofD/(BE+RE), TD/BEandD/BEratios
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APPENDIX I: TIME PLAN
Activity JUN JUL AUG SEPT
Proposal development
Approval
Data collection
Data analysis/ Project write up
Project submission
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APPENDIX II: BUDGET
Proposal development 3,000.00
Stationery 5,000.00
Typing and printing proposal 5,000.00
Photocopy (proposal questions ) 2,000.00
Transport 15,000.00
Miscellaneous expenses (15%) 4,500.00
Total 34,500.00