kimani (revised on 12 oct 2012)(1)

Upload: stanley-ngache

Post on 04-Apr-2018

218 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    1/28

    AN INVESTIGATION INTO INDUSTRY OPTIMAL GEARING

    RATIO TARGETING BY FIRMS IN KENYA

    BY

    KIMANI RUHANGA

    REG NO: D53/RI/11519/2004

    A RESEARCH PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO THE

    SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, KENYATTA UNIVERSITY

    IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR

    THE AWARD OF A DEGREE OF MASTERS OF BUSINESS

    ADMINISTRATION

    KENYATTA UNIVERSITY

    JULY 2012

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    2/28

    DECLARATION

    This research proposal is my original work and has not been carried out in any other

    institution for examination purposes

    Signed: . Date:

    KIMANI RUHANGA

    REG NO: D53/RI/11519/2004

    The research proposal has been submitted for defence with my approval as the student

    supervisor

    Mr. F. NDEDE

    Signed: . Date:

    ii

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    3/28

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

    It has been a long journey since I started my course work and it would be impossible

    not to remember those who in one way or another, directly or indirectly, have played

    a role in the realization of this research project. Let me, therefore, thank them all

    equally.

    I am indebted to the God for his blessings which have enabled me reach this far. I am

    deeply obliged to my supervisor for his exemplary guidance and support without

    whose help; this project would not have been a success. Finally, yet importantly, I

    take this opportunity to express my deep gratitude to my loving family and friends

    who are a constant source of motivation and for their never ending support and

    encouragement all through.

    iii

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    4/28

    DEDICATION

    I dedicate this study to my family, and especially my wife, for the support,

    understanding and encouragement provided over the years of my studies and as I

    prepared and worked on this project.

    iv

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    5/28

    ABSTRACT

    Despite significant theoretical and empirical developments in the capital structure

    literature, the question of optimal gearing ratio still remains a big source of debate,

    and more so the existence and targeting of an optimal gearing ratio by firms. Review

    of literature on capital structure indicates arguments for the existence of an optimal

    ratio, implying a target ratio, while empirical findings show that gearing ratios vary

    significantly by industry and that different industries have different optimal gearing

    ratios that are a function of their business risk. Other research rationalizes

    industry norm targeting behaviour, by arguing that firms choose gearing ratios which

    suit their particular business risk. The objective of this study is to investigate industry-

    optimal gearing ratio targeting by firms in Kenya. The study will be conducted by

    researching into the movement of the capital gearing ratios, over the period 2006 to

    2011, of firms whose shares are quoted on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, in order

    to determine whether the firms target an optimal capital gearing ratio over time. The

    study will purposively sample firms in two sectors; manufacturing and those in

    communication and technology.The study is expected to contribute new knowledge

    to this debate and benefit scholars by providing additional knowledge on capital

    structure and gearing ratios, enlighten investors and managers on short-term and long-term gearing and financing decisions and in addition influence government and policy

    makers in policy development.

    v

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    6/28

    TABLE OF CONTENT

    DECLARATION ...........................................................................................................ii

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..........................................................................................iii

    DEDICATION ..............................................................................................................ivABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................v

    CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................ 1

    INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1

    1.1 Background of the study .......................................................................................... 1

    1.2 Statement of the problem ........................................................................................ 2

    1.3 Objective of the study .............................................................................................. 3

    1.4 Hypothesis ................................................................................................................3

    1.4.1 Research hypotheses testing ..................................................................................3

    1.5 Significance of the study ..........................................................................................3

    1.6 Scope of the study ....................................................................................................4

    1.7 Limitations of the study ........................................................................................... 4

    1.8 Assumptions of the study ......................................................................................... 5

    LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................................. 6

    2.1 Theoretical rreview ................................................................................................ 6

    2.2 Empirical review .................................................................................................... 7

    2.2.1 Effect of an industry-optimal gearing ratio targeting .......................................... 9

    2.3 Knowledge gap .....................................................................................................10

    CHAPTER THREE ..................................................................................................... 12

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ....................................................... 12

    3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................12

    3.2 Research design .....................................................................................................12

    3.3 Population .............................................................................................................. 13

    3.4 Sampling techniques .............................................................................................. 13

    3.5 Sample size ............................................................................................................14

    3.6 Data collection .......................................................................................................14

    3.7 Data analysis .......................................................................................................... 14

    Regression Model with control variables .....................................................................15

    REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 16

    APPENDIX I: TIME PLAN ........................................................................................21

    APPENDIX II: BUDGET ............................................................................................22

    vi

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    7/28

    CHAPTER ONE

    INTRODUCTION

    1.1 Background of the study

    Since the arguments put forward in the capital structure irrelevancy proposition by

    Modigliani and Miller (1958), research and debate on capital structure have been

    intense but somewhat inconclusive, despite significant theoretical and empirical

    developments in the capital structure literature. The question of optimal gearing ratio

    still remains a big source of debate, and more so the existence and targeting of an

    optimal gearing ratio by firms. Review of literature on capital structure indicates

    arguments for the existence of an optimal ratio, implying a target ratio, while

    empirical findings show that gearing ratios vary significantly by industry and that

    different industries have different optimal gearing ratios that are a function of their

    business risk. Some researchers rationalize industry norm targeting behaviour, by

    arguing that firms choose gearing ratios which suit their particular business risk, while

    other research indicates that accounting for debt tax shields and financial distress

    costs counters the capital structure irrelevancy proposition and leads to an optimal

    gearing ratio which maximises firm value Bradley et al. (1984). Other researchers

    argue that industry classification impacts significantly upon the firm's gearing

    decision and that each firm targets the average (or norm) gearing ratio of its industry,

    since the benefits and costs of debt vary significantly across industries. Ang (1976)

    argues that the existence of an optimal gearing ratio implies the existence of a target

    ratio. More recently, Antoniou et al. (2002) find that firms adjust their debt ratios

    towards targets, but at different speeds depending on their industry, suggesting that

    environmental conditions are important drivers of targeting behaviour.

    There is no consensus on how capital structure ratios and their components should be

    defined. Certain ratios stress the importance of market rather than book values, whilst

    other ratios emphasise the importance of balance sheet values, especially if

    substantially different from market values. Bowman (1980) and Marsh (1982) find

    that book measures of gearing are statistically indistinguishable from market value

    measures. However, book and market gearing ratios are conceptually different. Book

    measures are by definition backward-looking due to their reliance on accounting

    1

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    8/28

    data whereas market values are generally held to be forward looking. Thus, there is

    no reason why these two concepts should match Barclay et al., (2006). Harris and

    Raviv (1991) and Rajan and Zingales (1995) employ gearing ratios in their empirics

    using book values for debt and market values for equity, a compromise employed

    widely in the empirical literature.

    Another important issue is whether short-term debt should be included in a definition

    of gearing as its omission may lead to an understatement of financial distress risk.

    Rajan and Zingales (1995) and Tucker (1995) find that while there is large variation

    across industries,

    Most capital structure studies to date are based on data from developed countries.

    Antoniou et al. (2002) analyse data from the UK, Germany and France, Rajan and

    Zingales (1995) use data from the G-7 countries, Bevan and Danbolt (2000) from the

    UK. Only a few studies provide evidence from developing countries. Booth et al,

    (2001) analyse data from ten developing countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, South

    Korea, Jordan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and Zimbabwe), Pandey (2001)

    uses data from Malaysia, Chen (2004) utilise data from China, Omet and Nobanee

    (2001) use data from Jordan and Al-Sakran (2001) analyses data from Saudi Arabia.

    This study attempts to reduce the gap by analysing a capital structures from firms in

    the developing world, and more specifically Kenya. Booth et al, (2001) state that, In

    general, debt ratios in developing countries seem to be affected in the same way and

    by the same types of variables that are significant in developed countries. However,

    there are systematic differences in the way these ratios are affected by country factors,

    such as GDP growth rates, inflation rates, and development of capital markets. This

    study is also intended to provide further evidence of the capital structure theories

    pertaining to a developing country.

    1.2 Statement of the problem

    The study is an investigation into industry optimal gearing ratio targeting by firms in

    Kenya. Though scholars have over the years hinted on the existence of an optimal

    capital gearing ratio and the endeavour by firms to target an optimal gearing ratio, the

    2

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    9/28

    research so far is inconclusive and therefore the existence of a gap for research. Most

    studies on capital structure and gearing ratios are based on data from developed

    countries. This study attempts to reduce the gap by analysing a capital structures from

    firms in the developing world, and more specifically Kenya.

    1.3 Objective of the study

    The objective of this study is to investigate industry-optimal gearing ratio targeting by

    firms in Kenya.

    The specific objectives are:

    i. To establish the effect of short-term debt on optimum gearing ratio;

    ii. To establish the effect of optimum gearing ratio on financial distress risk; and

    iii. To establish the effect of optimum gearing ratio targeting on capital structures.

    1.4 Hypothesis

    By testing the movement in capital gearing ratios over time we are implicitly testing

    the hypothesis of the targeting of an industry optimal capital gearing ratio.

    1.4.1 Research hypotheses testing

    The study will test the following hypotheses:

    Hypotheses I:

    H0: Short-term debts have an insignificant effect on the optimum gearing ratio

    H1: Short-term debts have a significant effect on the optimum gearing ratio

    Hypotheses II:

    H0: The optimum gearing ratio has an insignificant effect on financial distress risk

    H1: The optimum gearing ratio has a significant effect on financial distress risk

    Hypotheses III:

    H0: Optimum gearing ratio targeting has an insignificant effect on capital structure

    H1: Optimum gearing ratio targeting has a significant effect on capital structure.

    1.5 Significance of the study

    3

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    10/28

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    11/28

    1.8 Assumptions of the study

    The study hypothesis assumes that short-term debts have an insignificant effect on the

    optimum gearing ratio, the optimum gearing ratio has a significant effect on financial

    distress risk, while optimum gearing ratio targeting has a significant effect on capitalstructure. This study also assumes that the firms listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange

    are representative of firms in Kenya and the findings of this study can be generalised

    to firms in Kenya.

    5

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    12/28

    CHAPTER TWO

    LITERATURE REVIEW

    2.1 Introduction

    This section provides a review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature.

    Theoretical arguments suggest the existence of optimal gearing ratios and the implicit

    endeavour by firms by attain the optimal gearing ratio.

    2.1 Theoretical rreview

    Review of literature on capital structures indicates that past research findings broadly

    support the existence of optimal gearing ratios implying the incidence of targetgearing behaviour within firms. Central to this understanding of financing behaviour

    is the trade-off theory which asserts that an optimal gearing ratio is reached by the

    firm at the point where the marginal benefits of employing debt, such as interest tax

    shields, equals its marginal costs such as financial distress and bankruptcy costs Kim

    (1978). Further, an optimal gearing ratio may also be reached by trading off the

    agency costs and benefits of debt Jensen and Meckling (1976). Francis and Leachman

    (1994), Leary and Roberts (2005) and Flannery and Rangan (2006) for US firms, and

    Ozkan (2001), Antoniou et al. (2002), Bunn and Young (2004) and Beattie et al.

    (2006), amongst others, provide evidence in support of targeting behaviour.

    Bradley et al. (1984) and Flannery and Rangan (2006) argue that the optimal gearing

    ratio varies for firms in different industries because it is the typical asset structures

    and the stability of earnings which determine inherent risks vary across industries.

    Firms in cyclical sectors such as leisure firms will suffer greater variability in

    profitability, while other firms, such as information technology firms, are subject to

    technological risks and typically employ firm-specific non-accounting assets which

    have value only when employed by a going concern entity. Further, they suggest

    intuitively that firms characterised by high operating risk are more susceptible to

    financial distress. Additionally, Brealey and Myers (2001) argue that high growth

    sectors such as biotechnology may experience high agency costs through restrictions

    imposed by lenders to reduce the greater opportunities for asset substitution. The

    degree of competition can impact upon the capital structure decisions of the firm.

    6

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    13/28

    Therefore, the impact of determinants on capital structures may vary significantly

    across industries. Optimal gearing ratios will vary across industries not just in terms

    of magnitude but also in terms of ratio definition. For example, the optimal total debt

    to total assets employed ratio for the textile industry may be, say 40 percent while for

    the oil industry it may be 50 percent. However, the optimal ratio to target for

    information technology firms may be, say 10 percent as measured by the total debt to

    market value equity ratio.

    The proposition of the existence of a target ratio of course raises the issue of optimal

    adjustment policy. Fischeret al. (1989), Mauer and Triantis (1994), Dissanaike et al.

    (2001) and Flannery and Rangan (2006) argue that some researchers fail to

    acknowledge the multiple time periods required by firms to achieve their target capital

    structure ratios. This particular dynamic problem lies at the heart of the capital

    structure debate: do firms fully adjust their debt ratios to new information within one

    accounting period (typically one year) or does adjustment take longer? To address this

    issue, a functional form that permits partial adjustment of the firm's initial gearing

    ratio to its target must be specified. Estimating target gearing in a simple cross-

    sectional regression implicitly assumes that firms always attain their target gearing

    ratios within one time period. However, if adjustment costs are non-trivial,

    unrealistically restricting the adjustment speed to equal unity will bias coefficient

    estimates.

    While Flannery and Rangan (2006) found that US firms have target gearing ratios,

    they also found that the sample average debt ratio over the period 1966-2001 is very

    volatile. Fischeret al. (1989) developed a model of dynamic optimal gearing choice

    and demonstrated that debt ratios are characterized by wide swings. These findings

    suggest that firms do not identify a strict, single optimal capital structure ratio as such,

    but rather a range over which their capital structures are allowed to vary.

    2.2 Empirical review

    Review of studies on targeting behaviour suggests that instead of a unique gearing

    ratio to which firms immediately adjust, firms may engage in a multi-period

    adjustment if actual gearing ratios are outside the optimal range. This implies that

    7

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    14/28

    gearing studies should employ methods capable of modelling the dynamic adjustment

    of capital structures undertaken by firms in the real world. It may be understood that

    that gearing decisions would improve if econometric methodologies enabled some

    synthesis of competing capital structure theories. The approach taken in this study

    facilitates the testing of such a synthesis model.

    Not only do we seek to determine empirically the nature of the targeting behaviour of

    firms but also which industries are expected to be more prone to targeting behaviour.

    A further question then, concerns which ratios we might expect to observe as being

    targeted. We might expect firms in cash rich, mature industries with abundant cash

    flows to take on more debt and target industry ratios as a form of management

    discipline Jensen (1986). Additionally, firms with unique and/or specialised products,

    tangible and liquid assets, and high asset turnover would be expected to target their

    gearing ratios Titman and Wessels (1988). Firms in these industries should, in theory,

    target book value gearing ratios and/or total debt to total assetsemployed ratios. Well-

    established may attempt to target, or should monitor, market-value gearing ratios as

    they recognize that establishment brings with it know-how and extra earning power

    which is difficult to capture in a gearing measure otherwise; hence the market value of

    the firm would be significantly different from its book value.

    Industries dominated by small firms, such as the leisure industry, and cyclical

    industries or industries with longer operating cycles, such as the building industry, are

    more likely to target total debt gearing ratios Titman and Wessels (1988). On the

    other hand, industries which are characterized by large firms which employ

    significant amounts of fixed (tangible) assets rather than current assets, such as the

    utilities and real estate industries will typically monitor and target ratios with long-

    term debt and total assets employed as components. This is due to the easier access of

    member firms to bond markets at non-prohibitive costs, that is, they enjoy significant

    debt issue cost economies Bevan and Danbolt, (2000).

    Industries which as considered as young such as information technology, with

    significant non-accounting assets, are expected to target ratios with total debt as a

    component according to the well-accepted maturity matching principle that tangibles

    are best financed with long-term debt and growth opportunities with short-term debt

    8

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    15/28

    Myers, (1977); Barclay et al. (1995). In industries where non-accounting assets are

    the most important asset class, we would expect firms to target market value gearing

    ratios as opposed to book value ratios. However, because the common practice in

    these industries is to retain rather than to distribute earnings, we would expect to find

    some evidence of firms targeting ratios which include retained earnings (i.e. ratios

    which include total equity rather than base equity capital alone). However, the more

    heterogeneous an industry is, the less likely it is that the results will conform to

    expectations.

    2.2.1 Effect of an industry-optimal gearing ratio targeting

    The objective of this study is to investigate whether industry-optimal targeting arises

    in the long run while a hierarchy of financing arises in the short run. The relationship

    between measures of corporate capital structure is investigated using the Johansen co-

    integration test. The application of this technique represents an improvement upon the

    cross sectional tests often employed in the capital structure literature as it tries to

    capture the financing behaviour of firms in a dynamic rather than static framework.

    Further, it allows for variability in gearing ratios and adjustment to a target in a multi-

    period framework, a common finding in the literature. Examining the target gearingbehaviour of firms at the industry level necessarily involves a trade-off between

    information loss and results generalisation. It is easier to generalise results if we

    aggregate the data at the market level, though we may lose useful information

    regarding firm-level gearing correction because at this level any changes will be very

    small. While there are limits to the change in capital sources from year to year (for

    instance, bank borrowing may well remain stable), the variation of gearing ratio

    components for individual firms will be much greater than the variation of the

    aggregated gearing ratio components. Conversely, while firm-level analysis retains all

    information available, it is not clear how generalisable the results may be. Further,

    given that business risk and other gearing determinants are often assumed to be

    similar for firms in a given industry, by aggregating at the industry level, we retain the

    most essential information while also retaining results generalisation.

    There is no consensus on how capital structure ratios and their components should be

    defined. Certain ratios stress the importance of market rather than book values, whilst

    9

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    16/28

    other ratios emphasise the importance of balance sheet values, especially if

    substantially different from market values. Bowman (1980) and Marsh (1982) find

    that book measures of gearing are statistically indistinguishable from market value

    measures. However, book and market gearing ratios are conceptually different. Book

    measures are by definition backward-looking due to their reliance on accounting

    data whereas market values are generally held to be forward looking. Thus, there is

    no reason why these two concepts should match Barclay et al., (2006). Harris and

    Raviv (1991) and Rajan and Zingales (1995) employ gearing ratios in their empirics

    using book values for debt and market values for equity, a compromise employed

    widely in the empirical literature.

    Another important issue is whether short-term debt should be included in a definition

    of gearing as its omission may lead to an understatement of financial distress risk.

    Rajan and Zingales (1995) and Tucker (1995) find that while there is large variation

    across industries,

    2.3 Knowledge gap

    Most capital structure studies to date are based on data from developed countries.Antoniou et al. (2002) analyse data from the UK, Germany and France, Rajan and

    Zingales (1995) use data from the G-7 countries, Bevan and Danbolt (2000) from the

    UK. Only a few studies provide evidence from developing countries. Booth et al,

    (2001) analyse data from ten developing countries (Brazil, Mexico, India, South

    Korea, Jordan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and Zimbabwe), Pandey (2001)

    uses data from Malaysia, Chen (2004) utilise data from China, Omet and Nobanee

    (2001) use data from Jordan and Al-Sakran (2001) analyses data from Saudi Arabia.

    This study attempts to reduce the gap by analysing a capital structures from firms in

    the developing world, and more specifically Kenya. Booth et al, (2001) state that, In

    general, debt ratios in developing countries seem to be affected in the same way and

    by the same types of variables that are significant in developed countries. However,

    there are systematic differences in the way these ratios are affected by country factors,

    such as GDP growth rates, inflation rates, and development of capital markets. This

    10

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    17/28

    study is also intended to provide further evidence of the capital structure theories

    pertaining to a developing country.

    2.4 Conceptual frameworkThe researcher has developed the framework outlined below to explain the

    relationships of the variables under investigation and the overall study objective.

    Independent Variable Moderating Variables Dependent Variable

    Figure 1

    Figure 1

    11

    Short-term debt to

    equity

    Distress risk

    Long-run total debt to

    total assets

    Long-run total debt to

    market value of equity

    Long-run total debt to

    total equity

    Finance costs

    Co-lateral

    Government policy

    Shareholder preferences

    Optimum gearingratio

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    18/28

    CHAPTER THREE

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

    3.1 Introduction

    This chapter discusses the research methodology that will be adopted in order to meet

    the objectives of the study. Included in this chapter are the research design, study

    population, sampling method, data collection tools, and data analysis tools to be used

    to be used in the study.

    3.2 Research design

    The study will use a cross-sectional survey design as this allows the observation of the

    full population, or a sample thereof, at a specific point in time. This method has been

    selected because the researcher seeks to collect data from a cross-section of firms at

    one point in time. It is important to note that cross-sectional studies involve data

    collected at a defined time and they often rely on data originally collected for other

    purposes. In this case the researcher will study financial data presented on annual

    audited financial statements of the firms selected.

    The study involves the analysis of the movement of each firms gearing ratio over

    time and to capture the financing behaviour of firms in a dynamic rather than static

    framework. The researcher will improve on the cross sectional tests by applying co

    integration analysis, to allow for the variability of gearing ratios and the adjustment to

    a target in a multi-period framework, results commonly found in the literature

    Dissanaike et al., (2001); Flannery and Rangan, (2006). Implicitly, this technique tests

    a synthesis model of capital structure determination where the long-run gearing ratio

    is determined by the trade-off theory while the short-run variations may be driven by

    the pecking order theory.

    3.2.1 Definition and measurement of variables

    The study involves the analysis of the movement of the capital gearing ratios of firms

    over time to determine the existence of optimum capital gearing ratio targeting. The

    various components of gearing ratios are shown in the table below.

    12

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    19/28

    Table 1: Gearing ratio constituents

    Variable Label Datastream

    code

    Definition

    Book value of equity BE 305 (Ln of) Book value of equity

    at balance sheet date

    Market value of equity ME HMV (Ln of) Market value of

    equity at balance sheet date

    Total assets employed A 391 (Ln of) The sum of all assets

    less current liabilities

    Book value of equity plus

    reserves

    TE 307 (Ln of) Book value of equity

    and reserves at balance sheet

    date

    Long-term debt D 321 (Ln of) All loans repayable

    in more than one year

    Short-term debt SD 318 (Ln of) All loans payable in

    one year or less

    Total debt TD (Ln of) The sum of long-

    term and short-term debt

    Book value of total capital

    employed

    TDBE (Ln of) The sum of total

    debt and book value ofequity

    Book value of total capital

    employed and reserves

    TDTE (Ln of) The sum of total

    debt and total equity

    Market value of total

    capital employed

    TDME (Ln of) The sum of total

    debt and market value of

    equity

    3.3 Population

    The study will be conducted by researching into the movement of the capital gearing

    ratios of firms whose shares are listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

    3.4 Sampling techniques

    In order to sample different determinants of gearing ratios, whether based on asset

    book values or market values the study will purposively sample listed firms in two

    sectors; manufacturing and technology.

    13

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    20/28

    3.5 Sample size

    Out of the 56 firms listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange the researcher will

    purposively sample those in two sectors; manufacturing and technology, which are 7

    in number. In the opinion of the researcher manufacturing firms are characterised by

    significant amounts of tangibles assets, and those likely to base their optimal gearing

    ratios on total assets to debt, while those in technology are likely to hold insignificant

    amounts in tangible assets and may prefer to base their optimum gearing ratio on the

    market value of the firm.

    3.6 Data collectionThe study will use secondary data, and involves the collection of quantitative data

    from published audited annual financial statements of the firms sampled and data

    obtained from the Nairobi Securities Exchange database.

    The data required is:

    i. The balance sheet amounts of the companies equity, liabilities and assets; and

    ii. Daily stock prices to compute the market value of the firms equity.

    The data will be collected by the use of tables and spreadsheets.

    3.7 Data analysis

    The data will be analyzed using regression analysis. This will be aided by the use of

    Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), a computer statistical analysis

    program. The data will be analysed using descriptive statistics. The results will be

    tested using student T- test to test the significance of the data. Regression analysis

    will be carried out to establish the relationship and correlation of the variables. The

    model to be used is the one that was successfully used by Mamoghli and Dhouibi

    (2009) to study optimum gearing ratio and insolvency risk in emerging markets.

    14

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    21/28

    The researcher will use the following regression model to analyze the data collected:

    Regression Model with control variables

    The Regression Model will test for the number of the characteristic roots that are

    significantly different from unity can be constructed using the following two test

    statistics:

    +=

    =n

    ri

    itrace Tr

    1

    ^

    )1ln()( (1)

    )1ln()1,( 1^

    max +=+ rTrr (2)

    1 1 1, 1 2, 1 1( )t t t t x a x x e = + (3)

    2 2 1, 1 2, 1 2( )t t t t x a x x e = + (4)

    The general form of the panel model can be specified more exactly as: to check the

    consistency of the ECM results, in addition to TD/(BE+RE) ratio, we also examine

    the adjustment speed coefficients ofD/(BE+RE), TD/BEandD/BEratios

    15

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    22/28

    REFERENCES

    Allen, M. T. (1995). Capital Structure Determinants in Real Estate Limited

    Partnerships, The Financial Review, Vol. 30,Issue 3,pp. 399426,

    Al-Sakran, S. (2001). Leverage Determinants in the absence of Corporate Tax

    System: The Case of Non-financial Publicly traded Corporation in Saudi

    Arabia,Managerial Finance 27, pp. 58-86.

    Ang, J. (1976). The Intertemporal Behaviour of Corporate Debt Policy, Journal of

    Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 11 (November), pp. 555-66.

    Antoniou, A., Guney, Y. and Paudyal, K. (2002). Determinants of Corporate Capital

    Structure: Evidence from European Countries, Working Paper (Centre forEmpirical Research in Finance, University of Durham).

    Barclay, M. and Smith, C. (1999). The Capital Structure Puzzle: Another Look at the

    Evidence,Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 8-20.

    Barclay, M., Smith C. and Watts, R. (1995). The Determinants of Corporate

    Leverage and Dividend Policies,Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol.

    7, No. 4, pp. 4-19.

    Barclay, M., Morellec, E. Smith Jr., C. (2006) On the Debt Capacity of Growth

    Options,Journal of Business, Vol. 79 Issue 1, (January), pp. 37-59,

    Beattie, V., Goodacre, A. and Thomson, S. (2006). Corporate Financing Decisions:

    UK Survey Evidence,Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 33(9)

    & (10), (November/December), pp.14021434,

    Bevan, A. and Danbolt, J. (2000). Capital Structure and its Determinants in the UK -

    A Decompositional Analysis, University of Glasgow Working Paper No.

    2000-2; Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=233550.

    Booth, L, Aivazian, V, Demirguc-Kunt, A, and Maksimovic, V., (2001). Capital

    Structures in Developing Countries, The Journal of Finance LVI, pp. 87-130,

    pp. 118.

    Bowman J. (1980). The Importance of a Market Value Measurement of Debt in

    Assessing Leverage,Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.18, No.1, pp. 242-

    254.

    16

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.1995.30.issue-3/issuetochttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.1995.30.issue-3/issuetochttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.1995.30.issue-3/issuetochttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.1995.30.issue-3/issuetochttp://ssrn.com/abstract=233550http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/fire.1995.30.issue-3/issuetochttp://ssrn.com/abstract=233550
  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    23/28

    Bradley, M. Jarrell, G.A. and Kim, E.H. (1984). On the Existence of an Optimal

    Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, No. 3,

    pp. 857-878.

    Brealey, R. and Myers, S. (2001).Principles of Corporate Finance, 6th

    Ed., McGraw-

    Hill.

    Bunn, P. and Young, G. (2004). Corporate Capital Structure in the United Kingdom:

    Determinants and Adjustment, Bank of England Working paper No. 226,

    www.bankofengland.co.uk/wp/index.html.

    Chen, J., (2004). Determinants of Capital Structure of Chinese-listed Companies,

    Journal of Business Research 57, pp. 1341-1351.

    Dissanaike, G. Lambrecht, B. and Saragga, A. (2001). Differentiating Debt Target

    from Non-target Firms: an Empirical Study on Corporate Capital Structure,

    University of Cambridge, JIMS Working Paper No. 18/2001.

    Downs, T. W. (1993). Corporate Leverage and Non-Debt Tax Shields: Evidence on

    Crowding-Out. The Financial Review, Vol.28 (1993) pp. 549-83.

    Flannery M. and Rangan K.P. (2006). Partial Adjustment Toward Target Capital

    Structures,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 79, No. 3, pp. 469506.

    Fischer, E., Heinkel, R. and Zechner, J. (1989). Dynamic Capital Structure Choice:

    Theory and Tests,Journal of Finance, Vol. 44, pp. 19-40.

    Francis B. and Leachman L. (1994). A Time-Series Approach to Exploring

    Aggregate Capital Structure: Cointegration Analysis, Applied Financial

    Economics, Vol. 4, pp. 41-54.

    Frank, M. Z. and Goyal, V. K. (2005). Trade-off and Pecking Order Theories ofDebt (February). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=670543

    Gilson, S. C. (1997). Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence

    from Financially Distressed Firms, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 52, No. 1

    pp. 161-196. Blackwell Publishing for the American Finance Association.

    Halov, N. and Heider, F. (2005). Capital Structure, Risk and Asymmetric

    Information, EFA 2005 MAASTRICHT Available at SSRN:

    http://ssrn.com/abstract=566443.

    17

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/wp/index.htmlhttp://ssrn.com/abstract=670543http://ssrn.com/abstract=566443http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/wp/index.htmlhttp://ssrn.com/abstract=670543http://ssrn.com/abstract=566443
  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    24/28

    Harris, M. and Raviv, A. (1991). The Theory of Capital Structure, Journal of

    Finance, Vol. 46, No. 1 (March), pp. 297-355.

    Hovakimian, A., Opler, T. and Titman, S. (2001). The Debt-Equity Choice,Journal

    of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 36, pp. 124.

    Jensen, M. (1986). Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and

    Takeovers, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings of the

    Ninety-Eighth Annual Meeting of the A.E.A (May).

    Jensen, M. and Meckling, W. (1976). Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behaviour,

    Agency Costs, and Capital Structure, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.

    3, No. 4 (October), pp. 30560.

    Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in

    Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp. 1551

    1580

    Kim, E. (1978). A Mean-Variance Theory of Optimal Capital Structure and

    Corporate Debt Capacity,Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 45-63.

    Krishnan, V. and Moyer, R. (1996). Determinants of Capital Structure: An Empirical

    Analysis of Firms in Industrialised Countries, Managerial Finance, Vol. 22,

    pp. 39-55.

    Leary, M. and Roberts, M. (2005). Do Firms Rebalance their Capital Structure?,

    Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, No. 6, pp. 2575619.

    Leland, H.E. and Toft, K. B. (1996). Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous

    Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads, The Journal of

    Finance, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 987-1019.

    Marsh, P. (1982). The Choice Between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study.

    Journal of Finance, March 1982, pp. 121-44.

    Mauer, D. and Triantis, A. (1994). Interactions of Corporate Financing and

    Investment Decisions: A Dynamic Framework, Journal of Finance, Vol. 49,

    No. 4, pp. 1253-1277

    18

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    25/28

    Modigliani, F. and Miller, M. (1958). The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and

    the Theory of Investment, American Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp.

    261-97.

    Myers, S. (1977). Determinants of Corporate Borrowing, Journal of Financial

    Economics, Vol. 5, pp. 147-75.

    Myers, S. (1984). The Capital Structure Puzzle, Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, July,

    pp. 575-92.

    Myers, S. and Majluf, N. (1984). Stock Issues and Investment Policy when Firms

    have Information that Investors do not have,Journal of Financial Economics,

    Vol. 12, pp. 187-221.

    Omet, G. and Nobanee, H. (2001). The Capital Structure of Listed Industrial

    Companies in Jordan, Arabic Journal of Administrative Sciences 8, pp. 273-

    289.

    Ozkan, A. (2001). Determinants of Capital Structure and Adjustment to Long Run

    Target: Evidence from UK Company Panel Data, Journal of Business

    Finance & Accounting, Vol. 28, Nos. 1/2 (January/March), pp. 17598.

    Pandey, M., (2001). Capital Structure and the Firm Characteristics: Evidence from an

    Emerging Market, Working Paper, Indian Institute of Management,

    Ahmedabad.

    Rajan, R. and Zingales, L. (1995). What do we know about Capital Structure? Some

    Evidence from International Data, University of Chicago, Mimeo.

    Remmers, L., Stonehill, A., Wright, R., and Beekhuisen, T. (1974). Industry and Size

    as Debt Ratio Determinants in Manufacturing Internationally. Financial

    Management, Vol. 3, pp. 24-32.

    Scott, D. (1972). Evidence on the Importance of Financial Structure. Financial

    Management, (Summer), pp. 45-50.

    Scott, D. and Martin, J. (1975). Industry Influence on Financial Structure.

    Financial Management, Vol. 4, (Spring), pp. 67-73.

    19

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    26/28

    Shyam-Sunder, L. and Myers, S. (1999). Testing Static Tradeoff against Pecking

    Order Models of Capital Structure,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 51,

    pp. 219-244.

    Stiglitz, J.E. (1973). Taxation, Corporate Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital,

    Journal of Public Economics Vol. 2, pp. 1-34.

    Titman, S. and Wessels, R. (1988). The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice.

    Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No. 1, March.

    Tucker, J. (1995). European Capital Structure and the Macroeconomic, Corporate

    and Taxation Environments, Unpublished PhD Dissertation, University of

    Plymouth, England.

    20

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    27/28

    APPENDIX I: TIME PLAN

    Activity JUN JUL AUG SEPT

    Proposal development

    Approval

    Data collection

    Data analysis/ Project write up

    Project submission

    21

  • 7/30/2019 Kimani (Revised on 12 Oct 2012)(1)

    28/28

    APPENDIX II: BUDGET

    Proposal development 3,000.00

    Stationery 5,000.00

    Typing and printing proposal 5,000.00

    Photocopy (proposal questions ) 2,000.00

    Transport 15,000.00

    Miscellaneous expenses (15%) 4,500.00

    Total 34,500.00