Kimberley Zuill

BWS Director

February/March 2015

EMO Briefing

2015 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing

1. Basic Tsunami information2. Is Bermuda at risk?3. What are BWS SOPs regarding Tsunamis?4. What do BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like?5. Overview of LANTEX 2015 Exercise scenario6. Request for participation & feedback – What would you do?7. Problems & Potential Solution ideas8. Briefing outcomes

Tsunami Basics• Tsunamis form from water displacement from usually earthquakes but also undersea land slides.• A tsunami is a SERIES of “wall-like” deep waves that travel the same speed as a

jet.• Out in the open ocean boats may not even notice the tsunami• Even small tsunami waves can cause lots of damage from currents and debris• Tsunamis are NOT weather dependent! • Topographical and bathymetric effects cause small scale complications that Computer models cannot resolve (due to resolution – BDA challenges in this area)

NOAA Tsunami Basics – 3:18minhttp://oceantoday.noaa.gov/tsunamiawareness/

• In each of the following videos

• Notice: • 1) the sky- weather independent – blue in first, cloudy in second• 2) various sizes of the waves - they are not all movie monster waves• 3) can you see the “drag” of water out prior to the first wave?• 4) series of waves – no “drag out” in subsequent waves• 5) the currents / eddies / debris• 6) panic of the people & helplessness in their cries watching the disaster

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhjhTOkWeX0 (until 1:50min)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXfyn7agy5w (5:55) (14:49min)

Tsunami Basics

Tsunami SOPs at Bermuda Weather Service

• Conforms (where possible) to existing warning system formats for significant weather events.

• Disseminated via the same means as Severe Thunderstorm/Hurricane/ Marine Storm Watches & Warnings

• Includes information from WCATWC &/or PTWC

• Potentially incorporates prescribed information from local Emergency measures Organisation (not done in other warnings thus far)

Tsunami Message arrives via AFTN/FAX/Phone/Email/Website

Covering the Atlantic &/or Caribbean

Confirm with RCC Bermuda Radio, Log

phone call

Is the Originator PTWC/WCATWC/CTWP?

Call Director/Deputy Director

Yes No

Yes No

Does Message specify a tsunami threat to Bermuda?

Threat confirme

d

No threat

Confirm threat to Bermuda with PTWC/WCATWC/CTWP – Log

response. Find out Travel Time if available.

No Local Watch/Warning required. Keep Director/DD,

COMOPs Apprised

Follow chart opposite to determine what Local

Watch/Warning to Issue

Potential Tsunami, but not Imminent, e.g. Southern Atlantic Source

No Action until confirmation •Advise PTWC, COMOPs of no Action taken•Monitor Situation Closely

Potential Tsunami , Possibly Imminent, e.g. Mid Atlantic Ridge

Issue a Tsunami Watch for BermudaNote: At Director’s Discretion, a Warning may be required dependent on Situation

•Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Watch/Warning Issued•Monitor Situation Closely

Confirmed Tsunami, but not Imminent, e.g. East Atlantic Source

Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda•Advise PTWC , COMOPs of Watch Issued•Monitor Situation Closely

Confirmed Tsunami , confirmed as Imminent, e.g. Puerto Rico source

Issue a Tsunami Warning for Bermuda •Advise PTWC , COMOPs of Warning Issued•Monitor Situation CloselyDoes Message indicate a

travel time to Bermuda?

Yes

No

Duty Forecaster only beyond this stage! They are responsible for

Watches/Warnings

Duty Forecaster &/or Observer Duty Forecaster Only

Tsunami Watches & Warnings - Actions to Take

Definitions PTWC: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach Hawaii (operated by NOAA) – Designated international Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. WCATWC: West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska (operated by NOAA) – backup Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda.CTWP: Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico (operated by NOAA) – Not fully operational as yet; being set up to take on responsibilities for the Caribbean and Northwest AtlanticRCC Bermuda – Bermuda Maritime Operations Centre/Rescue Coordination Centre Bermuda/Bermuda RadioImminent: travel time 4 hours or less from Bermuda, or within 1000 nm of BermudaLevels of Confirmation 1)WCATWC, PTWC, CTWP, Local reports of inundation from RCC Bermuda Radio, Police, Fire Service, Regiment, or other

Government of Bermuda sources.2) Reports of impact from other overseas reporting stations (e.g. weather services, airports, military/police installations) 3) Visual evidence from news reports, buoy data, webcams etc.

Does Message indicate that a basin-wide tsunami or a tsunami affecting the Bermuda area may

be/has been generated?

Yes No

No action necessary

2015 Exercise Scenario• March 25th, 2015 – 13h00 UTC (10am local time)• M 6.8 Earthquake 215miles east of Port Canaveral, Florida at 28.8ºN,77.0ºW• Earthquake generates an undersea landslide, which in turn generates a tsunami• Kick off messages will be sent by both PTWC and NTWC• Enhanced products (started last year LANTEX14) will be issued for this scenario

2015 Exercise Scenario• Kick off messages will be sent by both PTWC and NTWC• PTWC has the responsibility of warning all non-US entities e.g. Caribbean/Bermuda • Enhanced products (started in LANTEX14) will be issued by PTWC for this scenario

Forecasted Tsunami Wave Heights for Florida submarine landslide tsunami scenario, showing tsunami at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, and 3 hours.

BermudaFirst waveLess than 2 hrsafter earthquake= just before noon local time

EXPECT more waves behind it!!

* Remember a tsunami is a SERIES of waves

Sea level time series for Bermuda

= estimate 1.8m / 6ft wave without extra effects!! E.g. Piling, topography enhancements!

Message Chronology Florida Scenario

N.B. BWS will disseminate Tsunami Watches/Warnings based on the data we receive in these message from PTWC (responsible for our area)

The following messages created for the LANTEX15 tsunami exercise are representative of the official standard products issued by the PTWC during a magnitude 6.8 earthquake and associated landslide-generated tsunami originating approximately 350 km east of Port Canaveral, Florida, at 28.8°N, 77.0°W. Note that since the earthquake falls below the agreed threshold for issuing a Tsunami Watch (magnitude 7.1), Message 1 is only a Tsunami Statement. The Tsunami Watch begins with Message 2, once a potentially damaging tsunami has been detected.

Wednesday, 25 March 2015BWS – Drill of communication systems, reenacting scenario as if real event.

Your division / department / family ??????

Today is the first step!What would you do on Wed?

Feedback – Awareness & Improvement

• BWS will email participants • 10 question survey using Monkey Survey.com• BWS creates an annual LANTEX report• Depending on interest – BWS will consider an online video summary

Problems: (Potential Solutions?)Action1. There is no official ALERT system in place. (Text message/Sirens?)2. People do not know what to do = panic/ confusion (Public

Awareness/Education/ annual LANTEX/CARIBE WAVE exercise drill at various levels to lead to improvements in the system.)

Policy & Paperwork1. SOPs for various agencies may not cover response to Tsunami events (creation of

departmental and DM level SOPs for tsunami response)2. Although recognized internationally as the Tsunami Warning Focal Point, BWS still does

not have any documentation from either Government or Government House to carry out any objectives related to tsunamis. Potential legal implications in/during/after an event. (Letter of delegation for BWS to be responsible for local tsunami information dissemination)

3. Time constraints impacting DM agencies getting the “what to do” message out swiftly to the public. (Pre-approved EMO statements of action to be disseminated (by BWS) along with situation specific info at the start of the event.)

There is no ALERT system in placePotential Solution: Sirens

Here are some examples of sirens used in regions where tsunamis are common.(Note: sirens are just an alert – that can be used to warn the public that there is a dangerThe public then needs to understand to go to an information source for further details Regarding the hazard and proposed public response. Such as EMO website or 100.1FM)

What a tsunami warning siren alert and warning message sounds like in Guamhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoEvYbdH0DQ

Image of University of Hawaii siren – just alert no voice warninghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CJFt950vOk

Public Education/Awareness

Insert useful maps and information in the “EMERGENCY PLAN for the General Public”- Dept Health (Last edition 2006)

High groundStations(BWS addition)

Kimberley Zuill

BWS Director

February/March 2015

EMO Briefing Outcomes

After the 2015 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing the audience:

1. Acquires Basic Tsunami information & understands the BDA risk2. Understands what BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like3. Receives an overview of BWS SOPs & LANTEX15 Exercise scenario4. Considers participating in the exercise on some level – if even to

contemplate on each message “What would you do?”5. Those that participate in the exercise complete the short survey6. Consider drafting your own departmental SOPs & family plan7. Consider other Problems & the Potential Solution ideas8. Commit to the creation of a solid set of SOPs to improve DM in BDA9. EMO–Delegation letter for BWS/Pre-approved public statements/Sirens/Text

message alerts10. Public Education