(knowledge) context for 2020 and beyond -...

Europe’s developing transitions agenda: a changing strategic (knowledge) context for 2020 and beyond

European Environmental Law Forum Dr Hans Bruyninckx, 30 August 2017, Copenhagen

The European Environment Agency

The EEA is an EU agency that

operates at the interface of

science and policy.

With a network of more than 300

institutions in 39 European

countries, the EEA provides timely,

reliable and relevant information

to support sustainable

development.

EEA work is targeted at EU

institutions, EEA member

countries, civil society and the

general public.

The challenge of the 21st century: 10 billion people, one planet

‘good life’

Within environmental limits

(Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014)

The developing policy landscape

Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme

‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological

limits.

Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an

innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted

and where natural resources are managed sustainably,

and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in

ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-

carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource

use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable

society.’

Rethinking sustainable development?

Social Environment

Economic Sustainable development? Of course not!

Living well, within the limits of he planet

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Key messages from SOER 2015

• Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being

• Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context

• Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation

• Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment, putting Europe at the frontier of science and innovation

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COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Past (5–10 year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

Land use and soil functions No target

Ecological status of freshwater bodies

Water quality and nutrient loading

Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts

Marine and coastal biodiversity

Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

Largely on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy




Material resource efficiency and material use No target

Waste management

Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation

/

Energy consumption and fossil fuel use

Transport demand and related environmental impacts

Industrial pollution to air, soil and water

Water use and water quantity stress




Largely on track

Partially on track


20+ years outlook

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health




Water pollution and related environmental health risks /

Air pollution and related environmental health risks

Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)

Urban systems and grey infrastructure No target

Climate change and related environmental health risks No target

Chemicals and related environmental health risks /




Largely on track

Partially on track


20+ years outlook

/

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience

Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural

capital

Resource efficiency and the low-carbon

economy

Safeguarding from environmental risks to

health

Past (5–10) year trends





20+ years outlook

/

Policy developments • Developments in acquis

– Strengthening of policies

– Implementation & compliance • Environmental Implementation Review

• Monitoring and Reporting Review

• Better regulation; Make it Work

• Macro-integrated policies

– “The Union has set this transformation in motion with long-

term, integrated strategies” 7EAP

Policy developments: characteristics

• Long-term: 2030-2050-2100

• Integrated: CAP

• Systemic: decarbonsation of transport

• Developing/iterative: Circular Economy; Climate and Energy

• And thus, complex, uncertain, lacking knowledge (of a certain type)

An increasingly integrated, systemic policy setting

Low Carbon Economy

Decarbonisation

Resource efficiency

Circular economy

Materials Water GHG Land

Food Transport Energy Housing

Resilience

Well-being

Sustainable Development Goals and 7EAP priorities

• Priority Objective 1: To protect, conserve and enhance the Union’s natural capital

(SDGs 6, 14, 15); • Priority Objective 2: To turn the Union into a resource-efficient, green, and

competitive low-carbon economy (SDGs 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13); • Priority Objective 3: To safeguard the Union's citizens from environment-related

pressures and risks to health and wellbeing (SDGs 2, 3).

Paradigm shift in knowledge (and policy)?

Normal science/knowledge/policies

“Over the past 40 years, a broad range of

environment legislation has been put in place,

amounting to the most comprehensive modern

standards in the world. This has helped to

address some of the most serious

environmental concerns.” (7EAP)

Policy theory: initially ‘fighting pollution’

Knowledge system: “Union environment policy is based on environmental monitoring, data, indicators and assessments linked to the implementation of Union legislation, as well as formal scientific research […].” (7EAP)

Anomalies occur

“However, many environmental trends in the

Union continue to be a cause for concern, not

least due to insufficient implementation of

existing Union environment legislation.” (7EAP)

“Addressing some of those complex issues

requires tapping into the full potential of

existing environmental technology […], as well

as increased use of market-based

instruments.” (7EAP)

Policy theory: “Efficiency thinking”

Anomalies: effectiveness

institutional vs. environmental effectiveness

Different explanations:

Counterfactual Implementation GAP Improve regimes Time lag effect

Science/knowledge in crisis

“Together with current wasteful production and

consumption systems in the world economy,

[…] depletion of resources […], generating

more pollution and waste, increasing global

GHG emissions and exacerbating land

degradation, deforestation and biodiversity

loss.” (7EAP)

“This report has come to the conclusion that traditional incremental approaches based on the efficiency approach will not suffice. Rather, unsustainable systems of production and consumption require fundamental rethinking in the light of European and global realities.” (SOER2015)

Source: Tesla

Limits to fighting pollution, efficiency and technological gains

System innovation and transitions: stylised optimism

Source: UNEP (2011)

System innovation and transitions: qualified optimism

Source: van der Brugge & de Haan (2005)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Efficiency gains in energy

Source: EEA (CSI 028)

Economic growth

Resource use

Efficiency gains

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Efficiency gains in the transport system

COUNTRY COMPARISONS

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

Efficiency gains in the home system

Source: SCP023 indicator (draft)

Change in world view/understanding “Biodiversity, including the ecosystem services

it provides (natural capital), for its intrinsic value

and for its essential contribution to human well-

being and economic prosperity.”

“The current knowledge base […] is based on monitoring, data, indicators and assessments mainly linked to the implementation of legislation, formal scientific research […] However, there are gaps between the available knowledge and that required to meet emerging policy demands. These gaps call for actions to widen the knowledge base […] in the coming decade. “… systems science; complex environmental change and systemic risks; global megatrends; interplay between socio-economic and environmental factors; transitions in production-consumption systems; environmental risks to health; and the inter-relationships between economic development, environmental change and human well-being.” (7EAP)

Changes in understanding

Pre- or early paradigm “The transition to a green economy is a long-term, multi-dimensional and fundamental process that will require a move away from the current linear economic model...” (SOER2015) Alternative concepts:

“This report offers a knowledge based contribution towards meeting those visions and goals.” (SOER2015) Unguided fact gathering: e.g. green economy; green investments

Europe’s emerging transition agenda Making sense of the Green, Blue, Circular, Resource Efficient, Low Carbon Economy?

Planetary boundaries

Source: 2017 EEA elaboration on Stockholm Resilience Center’s original image

New paradigm-new normal

Supporting transitions demands new types of knowledge

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