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KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes

Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University

For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, June 30, 2017

I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, June 29, 2017

Corn Futures Soybean Futures Kansas HRW Wheat Futures

Month Close Change Carry /mo Month Close Change Carry /mo Month Close Change Carry /mo

July 17 $3.59 ¾ $0.03  --- July 17 $ 9.15 ½ $0.0150 --- July 17 $4.80 ½ $0.19 ---

Sept 17 $3.69 ½ $0.0325  $0.04875 Aug 17 $ 9.20 ¾ $0.0175 $0.0525 Sept 17 $4.99 ½ $0.1925 $0.0850

Dec 17 $3.80 $0.0375  $0.0350 Sept 17 $ 9.23 ¼ $0.0250 $0.0250 Dec 17 $5.24 ¾ $0.19 $0.08417

Mar 18 $3.89 ½ $0.0350  $0.03137 Nov 17 $ 9.24 ¾ $0.03 $0.0075 Mar 18 $5.38 ¾ $0.1850 $0.04667

May 18 $3.95 ¾ $0.0350  $0.03125 Jan 18 $ 9.32 ¾ $0.0325 $0.04 May 18 $5.47 ¾ $0.1875 $0.0450

July 18 $4.01 ¼ $0.03  $0.0275 Mar 18 $ 9.39 ¼ $0.0325 $0.0325 July 18 $5.53 ¾ $0.1875 $0.03

Sept 18 $3.98 $0.0325  No Carry May 18 $ 9.45 ½ $0.0350 $0.03125 Sept 18 $5.61 ½ $0.2025 $0.03875

Dec 18 $4.01 $0.0250  $0.0150 July 18 $ 9.51 $0.0350 $0.0275 Dec 18 $5.76 ¾ $0.1725 $0.05083

PriceSoybean$ / PriceCorn$ Ratios on June 29, 2017:

“Current Crop2016/17” $JULY2017 Soybeans ÷ $JULY2017 Corn = $ 9.15 ½ ÷ $3.59 ¾ = 2.30

“New Crop2017/18” $NOV2017 Soybeans ÷ $DEC2017 Corn = $ 9.24 ¾ ÷ $3.80 = 2.43 ***

 

 

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II. USDA Stocks & Acreage Report Results to be released Friday, June 30, 2017

A1. USDA U.S. Quarterly Stocks Report – Pre-report Trade Estimates for June 1, 2017 (Source: DTN) & USDA History (2010-2016) (billion bushels or ‘bb’)

Crop June 1, 2017 Grain Stocks

Average Pre-report Trade Est.

Low-End Pre-report Trade Est.

High-End Pre-report Trade Est.

June 1, 2016 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2015 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2014 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2012 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2011 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2010 Grain Stocks

Corn 5.160 bb 4.945 bb 5.360 bb 4.711 bb 4.453 bb 3.852 bb 2.766 bb 3.148 bb 3.670 bb 4.310 bb

Soybeans 0.981 bb 0.872 bb 1.119 bb 0.872 bb 0.627 bb 0.405 bb 0.435 bb 0.667 bb 0.619 bb 0.571 bb

Wheat 1.154 bb 1.050 bb 1.185 bb 0.976 bb 0.752 bb 0.590 bb 0.718 bb 0.743 bb 0.863 bb 0.976 bb

Grain Sorghum 0.097 bb 0.092 bb 0.102 bb 0.090 bb 0.034 bb 0.092 bb 0.041 bb 0.059 bb 0.080 bb 0.088 bb

 

A2. USDA Kansas Quarterly Stocks Report – USDA (2010-2017) (million bushels or ‘mb’)

Crop June 1, 2017 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2016 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2015 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2014 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2012 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2011 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2010 Grain Stocks

Corn – All Stocks 169 mb 150 mb 120 mb 87 mb 122 mb 143 mb 175 mb

Corn – On Farm 37 mb 40 mb 27 mb 16 mb 28 mb 21 mb 44 mb

Corn – Off Farm 132 mb 110 mb 93 mb 71 mb 94 mb 122 mb 131 mb

Soybeans – All Stocks 28 mb 33 mb 17 mb 12 mb 27 mb 18 mb 18 mb

Soybeans – On Farm 3 mb 6 mb 2 mb 3 mb 4 mb 4 mb 6 mb

Soybeans – Off Farm 25 mb 27 mb 15 mb 9 mb 23 mb 13 mb 12 mb

Wheat – All Stocks 208 mb 140 mb 117 mb 162 mb 141 mb 180 mb 158 mb

Wheat – On Farm 8 mb 5 mb 3 mb 6 mb 3 mb 3 mb 6 mb

Wheat – Off Farm 200 mb 135 mb 114 mb 157 mb 138 mb 177 mb 152 mb

Grain Sorghum – All Stocks

50 mb 19 mb 60 mb 30 mb 42 mb 44 mb 51 mb

Grain Sorghum – On Farm 7 mb 2 mb 2 mb 2 mb 3 mb 2 mb 6 mb

Grain Sorghum – Off Farm

44 mb 18 mb 57 mb 28 mb 39 mb 42 mb 45 mb

 

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B1. USDA U.S. Prospective Plantings Report – Pre-report Trade Estimates for June 1, 2017 (Source: DTN) & USDA History (2011-2016) (million acres or ‘ma’)

U.S. Crop

June 1, 2017 Planted Acres

Estimates

Average Pre-report Trade Est.

Low-End Pre-report Trade Est.

High-End Pre-report Trade Est.

March 1, 2017 Planted Acres

Estimates 2016 U.S.

Planted Acres 2015 U.S.

Planted Acres 2014 U.S.

Planted Acres 2013 U.S.

Planted Acres 2012 U.S.

Planted Acres 2011 U.S.

Planted Acres

Corn 89.820 ma 89.000 ma 90.600 ma 89.996 ma 90.004 ma 88.019 ma 95.597 ma 95.365 ma 97.291 ma 91.936 ma

Soybeans 89.950 ma 88.900 ma 91.000 ma 89.482 ma 83.433 ma 82.650 ma 83.276 ma 76.840 ma 77.198 ma 75.046 ma

All Wheat 46.050 ma 45.700 ma 47.400 ma 46.059 ma 50.154 ma 54.999 ma 56.841 ma 56.236 ma 55.294 ma 54.277 ma

Winter Wheat 32.800 ma 32.600 ma 33.800 ma 32.747 ma 36.137 ma 39.681 ma 42.409 ma 43.230 ma 40.897 ma 40.596 ma

Spring Wheat 11.230 ma 11.000 ma 11.600 ma 11.308 ma 11.605 ma 13.367 ma 13.025 ma 11.606 ma 12.259 ma 12.344 ma

Durum Wheat 2.000 ma 1.900 ma 2.200 ma 2.004 ma 2.412 ma 1.951 ma 1.407 ma 1.400 ma 2.138 ma 1.337 ma

Grain Sorghum 5.810 ma 5.700 ma 5.900 ma 5.757 ma 6.690 ma 8.459 ma 7.138 ma 8.036 ma 6.259 ma 5.451 ma

 

B2. USDA Kansas Prospective Plantings Report – USDA History (2011-2016) (million acres or ‘ma’)

U.S. Crop

June 1, 2017 Planted Acres

Estimates

March 1, 2017 Planted Acres

Estimates 2016 U.S.

Planted Acres 2015 U.S.

Planted Acres 2014 U.S.

Planted Acres 2013 U.S.

Planted Acres 2012 U.S.

Planted Acres 2011 U.S.

Planted Acres 2010 U.S.

Planted Acres

Corn 5.200 ma 5.100 ma 4.150 ma 4.050 ma 4.300 ma 4.700 ma 4.900 ma 4.850 ma

Soybeans 5.000 ma 4.050 ma 3.900 ma 4.000 ma 3.600 ma 4.000 ma 4.000 ma 4.300 ma

All Wheat 7.500 ma 8.500 ma 9.200 ma 9.600 ma 9.500 ma 9.400 ma 8.800 ma 8.300 ma

Grain Sorghum 2.500 ma 3.100 ma 3.400 ma 2.850 ma 3.150 ma 2.500 ma 2.600 ma 2.350 ma

Sunflowers 0.069 ma 0.063 ma 0.084 ma 0.063 ma 0.071 ma 0.087 ma 0.134 ma 0.139 ma

Cotton 0.056 ma 0.032 ma 0.016 ma 0.031 ma 0.027 ma 0.056 ma 0.080 ma 0.051 ma

  

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II. U.S. & World Drought Monitor, Moisture Accumulations & Forecasts (Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin)

        

           

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III. Corn Market Information Daily JULY 2017 Corn Futures  

 

  

Key Corn & Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Factors:  U.S. Corn Exports: “Bullish” short‐term MY 2016/17 U.S. corn export shipments with “positive‐Bullish” long term sales outlook    Weekly Export Shipments week of 6/22/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 40.2 mb                           

vs 40.2 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 2.225 bb exports 

Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 1.823 bb                                        i.e., 81.9% of 2.225 bb USDA projn with 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks) 

Total sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 2.183 bb                                             i.e., 98.1% of 2.225 bb USDA projn w. 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)  

U.S. Grain Sorghum Exports: “Bearish” short‐term MY 2016/17 grain sorghum export shipments & “neutral‐negative” long term sales  Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/22/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 2.9 mb                              

vs 6.55 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 225 mb exports 

Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 159.5 mb                                         i.e., 70.9% of 225 mb USDA projn with 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks) 

Total new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 174.5 mb                                   i.e., 77.5% of 225 mb USDA projn w. 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)  

World & U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Fundamentals  Mktg Yr  World % S/U   U.S. % S/U  U.S. $/bu     U.S. Crop 2007/08  16.5% S/U    12.8% S/U  $4.20 /bu     13.038 bln bu 2008/09  18.3% S/U    13.9% S/U  $4.06 /bu     12.043 bln bu 2009/10  17.2% S/U    13.1% S/U  $3.55 /bu     13.067 bln bu 2010/11  14.5% S/U      8.7% S/U  $5.18 /bu     12.425 bln bu 2011/12  14.8% S/U      7.9% S/U  $6.22 /bu     12.314 bln bu 2012/13  15.3% S/U      7.4% S/U  $6.89 /bu     10.755 bln bu 2013/14  18.6% S/U      9.2% S/U   $4.46 /bu     13.829 bln bu 2014/15USDA  21.4% S/U    12.6% S/U  $3.70 /bu     14.216 bln bu 2015/16USDA  22.0% S/U    12.7% S/U  $3.61 /bu     13.601 bln bu 

2016/17USDA  21.3% S/U    15.7% S/U  $3.40 /bu     15.148 bln bu 2017/18USDA  18.3% S/U    14.8% S/U           $3.40 /bu     14.065 bln bu 

U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Fundamentals    2014/15USDA    67.6 bu/acUS      4.0% S/U  $4.03 /bu          433 mln bu 

  2015/16USDA    76.0 bu/acUS      6.4% S/U  $3.31 /bu           597 mln bu 

2016/17USDA    77.9 bu/acUS    11.4% S/U  $2.65 /bu           480 mln bu 2017/18USDA    67.1 bu/acUS      8.2% S/U           $3.00 /bu           331 mln bu  

 

JULY 2017 Corn (Daily): $3.59 ¾ on Th., June 29, 2017   

Monthly  Corn Futures Continuation 

Chart 

JULY 2017 Corn: $3.59 ¾ on Th., June 29, 2017   

$3.60$3.46

$3.18$3.09  $3.15 

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V. Wheat Market Outlook Daily JULY 2017 HRW Futures 

Monthly Kansas HRW Wheat eFutures 

  

Wheat Export Situation:  

U.S. All Wheat Exports: “Bullish” Short Term Export Shipments with “Positive” long run export prospects in “old crop” MY 2016/17 total sales 

– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 27.6 mb                vs 18.8 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 1.000 bb exports 

– Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 80.4 mb                                    i.e., 8.0% of 1,000 mb USDA projn with 5.7% of MY complete (3/52 weeks) 

– Total shipments + new sales 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 294.6 mb                            i.e., 29.5% of 1,000 mb USDA projn with 5.7% of MY complete (3/52 weeks) 

U.S. HRW Wheat Exports: “Bullish” Short Term Export Shipments with “Positive” long run export prospects in “old crop” MY 2016/17 total sales 

– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/22/17 for “new crop” 2017/18 = 10.1 mb  (7.1 mb HRS‐W)    HRW‐W: 36.6% of Total U.S. wheat export shipments for week of 6/22/2017 

– Total shipments thru 6/22/17 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 32.6 mb  (21.4 mb for HRS‐W)         HRW‐W: 40.5% of Total U.S. wheat export shipments to date for “new crop” MY 2017/18 

– Total shipments + new sales 6/22/17 for “new crop” 2017/18 = 101.9 mb  (80.9 mb HRS‐W)       34.6% of Total U.S. wheat shipments + sales for “new crop” MY 2017/18 

JULY 2017 KC Wheat (Daily)$4.80 ½ on Th., June 29, 2017

JULY 2017 KC Wheat$4.80 ½ on Th.,June 29, 2017

$4.80

$4.71 

$3.97

 “Negative” World & U.S. Wheat S/D Fundamentals 

Mktg Yr       World % S/U   World Crop  U.S. % S/U   U.S. $/bu   U.S. Exports  

2007/08  20.8% S/U      611.9 mmt   13.2% S/U    $6.48 /bu      1,263 mln bu  

2008/09  26.5% S/U      684.0 mmt  28.7% S/U    $6.78 /bu      1,015 mln bu 

2009/10  31.2% S/U      687.2 mmt  48.6% S/U    $4.87 /bu         879 mln bu 

2010/11  30.4% S/U      649.5 mmt  36.4% S/U    $5.70 /bu      1,291 mln bu 

2011/12  28.6% S/U      697.3 mmt  33.4% S/U    $7.24 /bu      1,051 mln bu 

2012/13  25.7% S/U      658.6 mmt  29.9% S/U    $7.77 /bu      1,012 mln bu 

2013/14  28.1% S/U      715.1 mmt  24.2% S/U    $6.87 /bu      1,176 mln bu 

2014/15  30.9% S/U      728.0 mmt  37.3% S/U    $5.99 /bu         864 mln bu 

2015/16USDA  34.1% S/U      737.0 mmt  50.0% S/U    $4.89 /bu         775 mln bu 

2016/17USDA  34.6% S/U     754.1 mmt  51.8% S/U    $3.90 /bu     1,035 mln bu 

2017/18USDA  35.5% S/U     739.5 mmt  42.2% S/U    $4.30 /bu     1,000 mln bu 

Monthly  KS HRW Wheat 

Futures Continuation 

Chart 

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VI. Soybean Market Outlook Daily JULY 2017 Soybean Futures

      

Monthly Soybean eFutures

   

Daily JULY 2017 Soybeans $9.15 ½ on Th., June 29, 2017

Key Soybean Supply‐Demand Issues:  

U.S. Soybean Exports: “Neutral‐Negative” short run export shipments in “current” MY 2016/17 and “positive‐bullish” total sales   o Export Shipments for week of 6/22/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 12.6 mb                      

vs 11.7 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 2.050 bb exports   

o Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 1.933 bln bu                       i.e., 94.3% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks) 

o Total new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 2.181 bb                                           i.e., 106.4% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)  

U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: “Bearish” short run export shipments in “current” MY 2016/17 and “positive‐bullish” total sales   o Export Shipments for week of 6/22/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 168,300 mt                

vs 218,771 mt/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 10,890 mmt exports   

o Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 7.827 mmt                          i.e., 71.9% of 10.890 mmt USDA projn with 73.1% of MY complete (38/52 weeks) 

o Total shipments & new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 9.958 mmt                i.e., 91.4% of 10.890 mmt USDA projn with 73.1% of MY complete (38/52 weeks)  

World & U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr       World % S/U   World Crop   U.S. % S/U    U.S. $/bu   U.S. Exports  

2007/08  22.9% S/U      219.0 mmt      6.7% S/U    $10.10 /bu   1.159 bln bu 

2008/09  19.3% S/U      212.0 mmt   4.5% S/U    $  9.97 /bu   1.279 bln bu 

2009/10  25.2% S/U      260.5 mmt      4.5% S/U    $  9.59 /bu   1.499 bln bu 

2010/11  27.7% S/U      264.3 mmt   6.6% S/U    $11.30 /bu   1.505 bln bu 

2011/12  20.3% S/U      240.6 mmt        5.4% S/U    $12.50 /bu   1.365 bln bu 

2012/13  21.0% S/U      268.6 mmt      4.5% S/U    $14.40 /bu   1.328 bln bu 

2013/14  22.4% S/U      282.5 mmt   2.7% S/U    $13.00 /bu   1.638 bln bu 

2014/15  25.7% S/U      319.6 mmt       4.9% S/U    $10.10 /bu   1.842 bln bu 

2015/16USDA  24.5% S/U      312.9 mmt   5.0% S/U    $  8.95 /bu   1.936 bln bu 

2016/17USDA  28.1% S/U     351.3 mmt    11.0% S/U    $  9.55 /bu   2.050 bln bu 2017/18USDA  26.8% S/U     344.7 mmt    11.7% S/U   $   9.30 /bu   2.150 bln bu 

JULY 2017 Soybeans $9.15 ½ on Th., June 29, 2017 

$9.15

$8.44 ¼ $7.76 ¼  

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