L3MTO Transfer to CPC

Preliminary Meeting

February 7, 2008

Outline

• Overview of L3MTO algorithm• Current Operation Flowchart• QC Flowchart• COOP Station Burden• Requirements• Sample Modules for:

– Annual Calculations– Monthly Calculations

• Alaska & Hawaii Outlooks• Sample Output:

– XML– QC– ARC

• Archival • Support• Timeline

L3MTO Scientific Development:L3MTO Scientific Development:Operational productionOperational production

CD data Station data

Regression Analysis1971-2000

1996-2005 Trend Significance

Significant?

Intercept AdjustmentYes

No

CPC CD forecastMean and St. Dev.

Station Forecast Solution

Verification/Correlation filter

Pass?

Merge

Forecast data Climatology Data

Distribution and Display

Once a year routine:Once a year routine: Once a month routine:Once a month routine:

Yes No

Multivariate statisticsRegression Coefficients

Verification

Create ARC data

CPC: CD forecast

Technical Support Team:Collect & respond toCollect & respond to trouble ticketstrouble tickets

WFO:1.1. Ensure link to the productEnsure link to the product2.2. Secondary QC of the productSecondary QC of the product3.3. Local value addedLocal value added4.4. Customer services and outreachCustomer services and outreach

Annette:1.Make forecast2.Primary QC3.3.Fix troublesFix troubles

Web Team:1. Post product on web

2. Hosts the product3.3. Fix TroublesFix Troubles

Operational FlowOperational Flow

Archive

CPC

WFO QCWFO QC

Erroneous Data Check

Approve data

Web & Functionality Error Check

Conspicuous Data Check

Send trouble ticket to WS

Pass

Pass

Pass

Fail

FailSend trouble ticket to Technical Team

Start

Other Discrepancy

Fail

Fail

Go through Trouble Ticket Checklist

Pass

Pass

Fail

Section A

Section B

Section C

NOAA NWS OCWWS CSDNOAA NWS OCWWS CSD

Station Burden

• All Sites: 4,621 from Homogenized Data Set• Sub-set: 1,187• Proposals:

– CPC automation will calculate All sites and send a sub-set to web team until such time that web team can handle All sites

*** OR ***– CPC will push All sites to web team, and web

team will sub-set

Requirements

• Software– Linux OS– Perl– Wget or sftp

• Hardware– Linux Machine

• Storage– Annual Data ~3 GB (~400MB Compressed)– Monthly Data ~300 MB (~38MB Compressed)– ~7 GB per year (~860MB Compressed)

Sample Module for Annual Calculations

Please open attached file:

“Sample Display when using Annual L3MTO module.pdf”

Sample Module for Monthly Calculations

Please open attached file:

“SampleL3MTOmonthlyDOS.pdf”

Alaska & Hawaii(the problem child!!)

• No real way to automate the annual calculations

• Need to coordinate with Dave Unger & CPC L3MTO Team to find best way to incorporate this into annual routine

Sample XML Output

Sample QC Output

• Random check of 10% of all stations (~500)-Non-repeating-Includes AK & HI

• Random Leads

Analysis Resource Center

• Text Files:– Site Stats– Threshold Documents

• Graphics (XML):– Scatter Plots– Trend Plots– Heidke Skill Maps

L3MTO Coefficients for ALAMOGORDO, NM CPC Climate Division #COOP Station ID #290199CWA: EPZ Season Mean Median StDev Slope Intercept R* Lower Tercile Upper TercileFMA 54.0 53.8 1.94 0.953 5.17 0.90 53.2 54.9MAM 61.5 61.5 1.98 0.887 9.85 0.91 60.6 62.4AMJ 69.9 70.2 1.85 0.858 12.92 0.91 69.1 70.8MJJ 76.3 76.2 1.52 0.906 9.95 0.91 75.7 77.0JJA 78.9 78.8 1.39 1.049 -1.40 0.94 78.3 79.5JAS 76.7 76.7 1.58 1.099 -5.58 0.93 76.0 77.4ASO 70.6 70.3 1.38 1.033 -0.29 0.89 70.0 71.2SON 61.3 61.2 1.51 0.994 2.44 0.88 60.7 62.0OND 51.4 51.3 1.53 0.986 2.66 0.93 50.7 52.1NDJ 44.7 44.4 1.74 0.994 1.86 0.93 44.0 45.5DJF 43.9 43.5 1.66 0.954 3.61 0.95 43.1 44.6JFM 47.7 47.3 1.77 0.943 4.65 0.90 46.9 48.5

CPC Forecast Sensitivity Test for ALAMOGORDO CD # 102

Season: FMA

A significant* BELOW NORMAL category outlook at the station is producedby 40% (or greater) BELOW NORMAL category of CPC outlooks in Climate Division 102

A significant* ABOVE NORMAL category outlook at the station is producedby 39% (or greater) ABOVE NORMAL category of CPC outlooks in Climate Division 102

Season: MAM

The outlook at this station during this season will always produce Climatology(equal chances, 33% for all three categories). This is reflective of a Heidke skillscore of zero or less. Any scores in this range will automatically produce equalchances at the station. Please see the ARC site skill scores for more information.

.

.

.

Archival Process

• Simple automated save to archive folder

• Any other requirements???

Support

• HI L3MTO will remain operational until CPC/CSD/Web Team are satisfied

• Run L3MTO in parallel in HI for as long as necessary (and run comparison tests)

• Annette will continue to support & trouble shoot as needed for undetermined length of time??

• L3MTO Technical Team (CSD, Regions & WFO FPs) will remain as support for duration of product lifetime

• Web support is always available: John Bollinger’s group has superb service & support

Proposed Timeline ???

• Telecons:– Preliminary: Feb. 7– Technical: 2 or 3 in March– Administrative: Beginning/Mid March (decision on transfer date)

• Actions:– Feb/March: Annette & CPC Tech Team look at scripts &

determine needs and additional work– End of March???: Annette travel to CD for implementation &

training (Bollinger will attend towards the end of the week)

• Goal (August)– CPC is running operational forecast– CPC has produced annual data– CPC is self-sufficient???