lake workshop: improving weather forecasting models with ......lake workshop: improving weather...
TRANSCRIPT
Lake Workshop: Improving Weather Forecasting Models with Satellite Data assimilation April 11, 2017, University of Waterloo
Philippe Van Cappellen
CFREF: Canada First Excellence Research Fund
• Created in 2014• Triagency initiative (NSERC, CIHR, SSHRC) • Approximately $200 million per year – 7 year grants• Goal: help Canada’s universities become global research leaders• First inaugural competition (2015): 5 awards ($350M)• Second inaugural competition (2016): 13 awards ($900M)
• Dalhousie, Laurentian, McGill, Polytechnique Montréal, Queen’s, Umontréal, Alberta, Calgary, Guelph, Saskatchewan, Waterloo, Western, York
Service Announcement #1
Global Water Futures: GWF
Lead Institution
Project Director
University of Saskatchewan
Howard Wheater
Partner Institutions University of Waterloo McMaster University Wilfred Laurier University
Other Partners 157 organizations (indigenous, research, government, private sector, civil society)
GWF: Budget (7 years)
Item Amount ($M)
CFREF Contribution 78
Partner Contributions, incl. Waterloo 66
Total Cash Budget 144
In-kind Contributions 88
Total Cash and In-kind Budget 232
Waterloo Matching (cash) 15
GWF: The Big Question
“How can we best forecast, prepare for and manage water futuresin the face of dramatically increasing risks?”
Challenges − Water-related threats are increasing due to climate change and other human activities (↑ “water insecurity”).
− Resulting in intensified flooding and droughts, decreased water availability and degraded water quality.
− Economic, human and environmental costs are increasing.
Responses Breakthrough transdisciplinary science. New monitoring systems and modelling tools. More effective mechanisms to translate new science to
societal change.
1. Deliver new capability for providing disaster warning;
2. Diagnose and predict water futures;
3. Develop new models, tools and approaches to manage water-related risks from multiple sectors (eg, agriculture, energy, urban, Indigenous etc.)
Objectives and Impact
Pillars
CHANGEPillar 1: Diagnosing and Predicting Change in “Cold” Regions
DATA/DECISION-MAKINGPillar 2: Big data and decision support systems
SOLUTIONSPillar 3: Designing user solutions
Position Canada as the
Global leader in water science for the world’s cold regions;
Global partner of choice for transdisciplinarywater research;
Provider for Canada and the world of strategic tools to manage water futures.
GWF Ambition
• First RFP (Pillar 3: User Solutions): December 2016
• ~30 LOIs 13 full proposals
• Deadline: April 10, midnight (CST)
• 2 “lakes” proposals:
– FORMBLOOM: FORecasting tools and mitigation options for diverse BLOOM-affected lakes (PI: Helen Baulch, UofS)
– LAKE FUTURES: Enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience of lakes and their watersheds (PI: Nandita Basu, Waterloo)
GWF: Internal RFPs
Lake Futures
Watershed pressures lake responses management solutions
Lake Futures: Phase 1 (Years 1-3)
Lake Futures: Phase 2 (Years 4-7)
Service Announcement #2
Zarfl et al., 2015, Aquatic Sciences; Lehner et al., 2011, Front. Ecol. Environ.
Global Damming
Red: existing dams in year 2000Blue: dams to be completed by 2030
Dams in Numbers
• > 16 million dams worldwide
• > 50,000 “large” dams (≥ 15m high)
• Large dam reservoirs: 400,000 km2 (> Σ small lakes)
• Volume dam reservoirs > volume rivers
• Global river catchment area draining into large dams: 1970: 18% 2000: 27% 2030: 36%
Reservoir: Between River and Lake
Van Cappellen P. and Maavara T. (2016) Rivers in the Anthropocene: Global scale modificationsof riverine nutrient fluxes by damming. Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology 16, 106-111.
Reservoirs ≠ Lakes
Hayes, N.M. et al. (2017) Key differences between lakes and reservoirs modify climate signals: A case for a new conceptual model. Limnology and Oceanography Letters 2, 47-62.
Organic Carbon Export to Oceans
TOC load to rivers (Tmol yr-1 )
TOC eliminated by dams (Tmol yr-1 )
% Export reduction by dams
% Reduction by burial
% Reduction by mineralization
30
4.0
13%
7%
6%
32
6.8
19%
12%
7%
2000 2030
Maavara T. et al. (2016) Global perturbation of organic carbon cyclingby river damming. Nature Communications – in press.
Dam and Reservoir Science
Thank you!