land management and resilience in a changing climate

Land management and resilience in a changing climate

Content

• A changing climate in the South West

• Implications for agriculture

• Focus on water efficiency

• Focus on soil and nutrient management

• Environmental Stewardship

• Conclusions

A Changing Climate in the South West

Weather and Climate

Climate

= the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period

Weather

= what it is doing outside right now

Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2010)

Global Temperature Increase

Temp rise is difference from 1750

IPCC Emission Scenarios

High Medium Low

World Stabilisation Scenario

Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4%

Some change is inevitable

Year

We are locked into some change because of past emissionsWe are locked into some change because of past emissions

Start to diverge from 2030-40Start to diverge from 2030-40

2003 heatwave temperature, which killed 2,000 people across the UK, are likely to be normal by the 2040s

Mitigation

• reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2)

Adaptation

• preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change

© Environment Agency

8

South-West England central estimate

Medium emissions

Impacts

Heat stress to poultry and livestock

Increased risk of disease in crops

Altered growing seasons

2020 +1.60C

2050 +2.70C

2080 +3.90C

Warmer summers

But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC

The 2003 heatwave, which caused an extra 30,000 heat-related deaths across Europe, was 2.3C above average

Map showing average summer temperature change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s

9

Impacts

Increased drought

Reduced stream flow and water

quality

Serious water stress

Decreased crop yields

Climate change could increase water demand for irrigated crops in parts of the UK by as much as 50% by 2050

South West Englandcentral estimate

Medium emissions

2020 - 8%

2050 - 20%

2080 - 24%

Drier summers (on average!)

Map showing change in average summer precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

Map showing change in average winter precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

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Impacts

Increased winter flooding

Risks to livestock

Increased soil erosion and run-off

Waterlogged soils

South West central estimate

Medium Emissions

2020 + 7%

2050 + 17%

2080 + 23%

Wetter, milder winters

In England, 1.3 million hectares of farmland are within floodplains, including over half of the most productive land

Figures shown are at the 50% probability level, high emissions

2020Weston-super-Mare: 12 cm

Newlyn: 13 cm

Poole: 12 cm

2050Weston-super-Mare: 26 cm

Newlyn: 29 cm

Poole: 26 cm

Rising sea levels

Impacts

Loss of productive land due to:

Increased coastal flooding

Inundation of land

Increased erosion

Salinisation of freshwater

Note. Global average sea level rise:

1961-2003 = 1.8mm/year;

1993-2003 = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007)


More frequent and intense weather eventsi.e. Floods; Droughts; Storms and Heatwaves

Impacts

Crop damage or loss

Soil erosion

Drainage and building maintenance costs

Disruption to transport

Stress to livestock

Increased fire risk

© Environment Agency© Environment Agency

© Reed Business Information Ltd.

• Cost UK agriculture an estimated £50 million

• Farmers lost an average £1,150 per flooded hectare

• Water and power supplies lost

• Transport routes disrupted

Gloucestershire floods, summer 2007

The South West is vulnerable to the existing climate

• 1177ha arable land and 2185ha grassland flooded in Gloucestershire - over 33 km 2 © Environment Agency


• Regional partnership funded by a range of public and private organisations

SW Adaptation Response

Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Its mission is:

To help the South West of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change

Climate SouthWest Funders

Climate SouthWest Agriculture & Forestry Sector Group is chaired by the NFU - New members welcome!

http://www.wessexwater.co.uk/

Implications for agriculture

How do farmers see things?

• 60% of farmers think climate change is impacting their farm now

• 60% of farmers believe their growing season is lengthening

Global productivity changes by 2050

• Changing weather

• New pests & diseases (e.g. bluetongue)

• Heat stress to poultry and livestock

• Increased risk of drought

• Increased risk of soil erosion and run-off

• Greenhouse gas reduction targets and low-carbon supply chains – pressure for ‘carbon neutrality’

• Land management

Challenges


© Somerset Tourism

Opportunities

• Changing weather - new markets, demands & crop varieties

• Reduced frost damage

• Longer growing seasons

• Water conservation – cost savings

• Renewable energy

• Woodland creation

What are farmers doing - Now?• Moving to new farming systems

• Soil and nutrient management plans

• Putting in bore holes

• Rainwater harvesting

• Covering yards to minimise slurry storage

• Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice

• Vaccinating against diseases - e.g. bluetongue

© Derek Harper

What are farmers doing - 2029?

• All of the NOW stuff

• Battling new diseases

• Reduced flood risk from farms

• New breeds have been introduced

• New crops and varieties have been introduced

• Better water management - Increased use of irrigation

• Selling in new markets e.g. Water quality, Energy production, Carbon sequestering

© Woodland Trust© Woodland Trust

© Farming Futures

Focus on water efficiency

Current pressure on water supplies

© Environment Agency and Ofwat 2008

Parts of the UK have less water available per person than Sudan!

In the SW, it may seem like we have plenty of rain but the ‘headroom’ in supply is currently below target in many areas

Future pressures


Summer river flow in the South West could

decrease by as much as 50-80% by the 2050s

Water efficiency and resilience• Audit/ benchmark

- Understand value of water to your business

- Understand cost of water wastage

(incl. energy costs from pumping etc.)

• Leak check

- no flow/ meter alarms

• Irrigation

• Reuse / recycle

• Alternative supplies

- Rainwater harvesting

- On-farm reservoirs



Benefits for farmers

• Cost savings- Lower irrigation costs- Reduced dirty-water disposal costs- Reduced consumption

• Reduced dependence on supply

• Reduced localised flood risk

• Reduced soil erosion and compaction risk

• Size of slurry store can be reduced if clean water is diverted away from roof

http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/GEMI1109BRGU-e-e.pdf

http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/GEMI1109BRGU-e-e.pdf

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/business/sectors/39985.aspx

Further information – Environment Agency

Defra and ADAS have produced four best practice guides for irrigators:

• Water management for field vegetable crops: a guide for vegetable growers

• Water management of soil and substrate-grown crops: a guide for top and soft fruit growers

• A guide for container-grown ornamentals• Irrigation best practice: Water management for potatoes - a

guide for growers

Copies are available from Adas, Boxworth, Telephone: 01954 268214

Further information - ADAS

Focus on soil and nutrient management

Soils in the South West

• Almost 50% sites are degraded and require soil structure remediation

• Only 11% of sites had good soil structure throughout the soil profile

High risk soils

Reducing erosion and runoff • Understand risks - plan land-use and cultivation accordingly

- ThinkSoils - a practical guide

• Dig a hole and assess the problem

Potential options:• Plant grass buffer strips and woodland belts

• Undersow spring crops with a cover crop e.g. grass or mustard

• Avoid high-risk crops on steep slopes

• Avoid cultivation, harvesting, grazing and slurry spreading in wet conditions

• Remove compaction


Benefits for farmers

• Enhanced root growth and soil condition

• Reduced waterlogging and soil loss

• Natural drainage

• Reduced flood risk

• Better use of nutrients

– lower fertiliser costs

• Easier working of the land, with fewer cultivations and inputs




Examining soil structureA practical guide to digging a hole

ThinkSoils

• Catchment Sensitive Farming– Advice on reducing diffuse pollution

• SW Agricultural Resource Management– Soils for Profit (S4P) advice on soils,

nutrients and manure

– Resource Efficiency for Farms (R4F) advice on energy, water and inorganic waste management

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/business/sectors/soils.aspx

Further information

Changing Climate, Changing Business –

Is your farm adapting?

A5 fold-out leaflet for the SW:

• Soil

• Water

• Woodland

• Top tips

• Signposts to further info

Environmental Stewardship

Environmental Stewardship•Environmental Stewardship reduces emissions from agriculture by 11% per year

•Your ‘Top 10’ options appear on the next slide

•All these options can neutralise the emissions of an average dairy farm by:

Reducing fertilisers, pesticides & machinery Removing or reducing methane emissions from livestock & their

manures Accumulating organic matter in soil & vegetation

•Carbon Audits for Land Managers now include Environmental Stewardship options

Environmental StewardshipOption Payment (£/ha)

Buffer strips on intensive grassland (2m to 12m wide) 300-400

Creation of fen 380

Preventing erosion or run-off from intensively managed grassland 280

Creation of woodland outside the Less Favoured Area (LFA) 315

Enhanced strips for target species on intensive grassland 590

Archaeological features on grassland 16

Buffer strips on organic grassland (2m to 12m wide) 60

Creation of woodland inside the LFA 200

Restoration of moorland 40

Restoration of rough grazing for birds 80

For more information and how to apply call 0300 060 0011

Conclusions

• Opportunities for those who are resilient and able to adapt

– Potential for increased yields

– Cost savings via adaptation and efficiencies

• Uncertainties remain:

– Drought and floods– Costs and risks– Plan for uncertainties

• We need to plan for current and future vulnerability

Conclusions



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land management and resilience in a changing climate

Documents

medium emissions slide

changing climate slide

climate climate

south west slide

medium emissions scenario

productive land slide

high emissions

past emissions