land-surface modeling performance at ncep
DESCRIPTION
Land-Surface Modeling Performance At NCEP. Ken Mitchell. NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. WRF Land Working Group Workshop: 18 June 03. NCEP : Where America's Climate and Weather Services Begin. GAPP. GCIP. NCEP/EMC. NWS/OHD. NOAA/NESDIS. Dan Tarpley. John Schaake. Ken Mitchell - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Land-Surface Modeling PerformanceAt NCEP
NCEP: Where America's Climate and Weather Services Begin
WRF Land Working Group Workshop: 18 June 03
Ken MitchellNCEP Environmental Modeling Center
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CollaboratorsGAPP GCIP
Eric WoodJustin Sheffield
Princeton Univ.
Dan TarpleyNOAA/NESDIS
Bruce RamsayAndy Bailey
Soroosh SorooshianJames ShuttleworthLuis Bastidas
Univ. Arizona
Dennis LettenmaierLaura Bowling
Univ. Washington
George GaynoAFWA
Jerry WegielWayne HigginsHuug Van den Dool
NCEP/CPC
Ken MitchellMichael EkDag Lohmann
NCEP/EMC
Rachel PinkerHugo Berbery
Univ. Maryland
Ken CrawfordJeff Basara
Univ. Oklahoma
Alan RobockLifeng Luo
Rutgers Univ.
John SchaakeVictor KorenQingyun Duan
NWS/OHD
Tilden MeyersJon Pliem
NOAA/ARL
AtmosphericResearch
Alan Betts
Paul HouserBrian Cosgrove
NASA/GSFC
Fei ChenJimy Dudhia
NCAR
Mike FennesseyPaul Dirmeyer
COLA
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Papers recently submitted to GCIP Special Issue of JGR
(Show vugraphs and pass out CDs)
• Papers on Coupled Eta/Noah and EDAS– Ek et al.
– Berbery et al.
• Papers on Uncoupled NLDAS– NLDAS: N. American Land Data Assimilation System
– Mitchell et al. overview paper
– 9 companion papers by NLDAS collaborators
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Systems Using the Noah Land ModelSystems Using the Noah Land ModelOPERATIONAL SYSTEMS
1. Eta/EDAS: NCEP Eta Model and Eta Data Assimilation System
2. GFS/GDAS: NCEP Global Forecast System (older version of Noah)
3. AGRMET: Air Force Agricultural Meteorological Model (USDA)
DEMONSTRATION TESTBED SYSTEMS
1. Eta-RCM: Eta Regional Climate Model, 2-4 month seasonal fore
2. Eta R/R: Eta-based Regional Reanalysis (underway, 1979-2003)
3. GFS: NCEP Global Model (most current Noah version)
4. NLDAS Realtime: N. American Land Data Assimilation System
5. NLDAS Retrospective: 50-year by CPC (for drought monitoring)
6. GLDAS: NASA/NCEP Global Land Data Assimilation System
7. MM5/Noah: at NCAR
8. WRF/Noah: at NCAR and NCEP
9. ARPS/Noah: at Center for Analysis & Prediction of Storms (CAPS)
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Improving the NCEP MesoscaleEta Model via Land-Surface Initiatives
• Eta improvement goals
- 2 meter air temperature and humidity
- 10 meter wind vector
- PBL T and Td profiles
- convective stability indices
- integrated moisture flux convergence
- precipitation and cloud cover
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Interannual variability of North American Monsoon - interior Southwest
moist
July 1999 July 2000
obs
Eta
00 2412 36 48
29 C
16
23
30
16
24
32
00 2412 36 48
obs
Eta
July 2001
dry semi-dry
33 C
Eta forecast hour
32 C
00 2412 36 4816
24
32
Moist soilin Eta
Dry soilin Eta
Semi-drysoil in Eta
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ETA MODEL LAND-SURFACE MODELING MILESTONES
Since 1996, a series of GCIP/GAPP-sponsored land-surface model related advances have been made to the NCEP mesoscale Eta model and its Eta-based 4-D data assimilation system (EDAS).
31 Jan 1996 multi-layer soil/vegetation/snow model introducedinitial soil moisture/temperature from GDAS
18 Feb 1997 new vegetation greenness database from NESDISrefined adjustment of initial GDAS soil moisture refinedevaporation over snow and bare soil
09 Feb 1998 increase from 2 to 4 soil layers (10, 30, 60, 100 cm layers)03 Jun 1998 full self-cycling of EDAS/Eta soil moisture and temperature
new NESDIS daily 23-km snow cover and sea ice15 Mar 1999 "NOAH" name designated for Eta land-surface model01 Apr 1999 GOES vs Eta skin temperature verification24 Mar 2000 Eta near-surface regional Forecast Verification System15 Mar 2001 retrospective NOAH LSM Eta/EDAS testing initiated24 Apr 2001 realtime NOAH LSM Eta/EDAS testing initiated02 July 2001 pre-implementation NOAH LSM testing in parallel
Eta/EDAS24 July 2001 frozen soil physics, patchy snowcover (OHD, V. Koren)12 Feb 2002 improved sub-surface heat flux with snowpack
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ETA/NOAH LAND-SURFACE MODEL UPGRADES: 24 Jul 01- assimilation of hourly precipitation -- hourly 4-km radar/gage analysis (Stage V)
-cold season processes(Koren et al 1999) -- patchy snow cover -- frozen soil (new state variable) -- snow density (new state variable)
-- bare soil evaporation refinements -- parameterize upper sfc crust cap on evap
- soil heat flux -- new soil thermal conductivity (Peters-Lidard et al 1998) -- under snowpack (Lunardini, 1981) -- vegetation reduction of thermal cond. (Peters-Lidard et al 1997)
- surface characterization -- maximum snow albedo database (Robinson & Kukla 1985) -- dynamic thermal roughness length refinements
- vegetation -- deeper rooting depth in forests -- canopy resistance refinements
NOAH LSM tested in various land-model intercomparison projects, e.g., GSWP, PILPS 2a, 2c, 2d, 2e, Rhone, and (near-future) DMIP.
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July 2001 NOAH LSM improvements in coupled Eta model
Successfully Targeted Impacts:
1 - Cold season processes (snow melt, frozen soil)
*** reduce near-surface cool bias over snow cover
2 - Early spring wet soils (soil heat flux, bare soil evaporation)
*** reduce near-surface moist bias
3 - Summer over non-sparse green vegetation
*** reduce near-surface warm bias
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Old model formulation - cool, moist bias in 2-m T, TdNew model formulation – reduced cool, moist biasPhysics change: new soil thermal conductivity, nonlinear vs linear dependence of direct evap on top layer soil moisture
REDUCING SURFACE MOIST-COOL BIASOVER WET-BARE GROUND
12Z, 27 APR 2001, 60-hr model run
36-hr
OLD2-meter
T=>
Td=>
NEW2-meter
T=>
Td=>
Champaign, Illinois
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REDUCING SURFACE MOIST-COOL BIAS
OVER WET-BARE GROUND
00Z lowest boundary-layerlevel (~ 100-150
m) dew point
temperature48-km parallel
old formulation
00Z lowest boundary-layerlevel (~ 100-150 m)
dew point temperature48-km parallel
new formulation (NOAH LSM)
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REDUCING NEAR-SURFACE MOIST-COOL BIAS
OVER WET-BARE GROUND IN SPRING
Improved 2-m RH in 48-hour diurnal forecast cycle during Apr-May
oldNOAHLSM
obs
Eta forecast hour00 2412 36 48
57
84
75 newNOAHLSM
2-m
rela
tive h
um
idit
y (
%)
66
USA northern mid-west
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Shallow/retreating snow cover in USA northern plain states
North Americasnowcover
01 Feb 2001 02 Feb 2001 03 Feb 2001
04 Feb 2001 05 Feb 2001 06 Feb 2001
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old model formulation (upper left)=> bulk of incoming energy melts/sublimates snow => skin temp held at freezing=> 2-m air temp held near freezing
new model formulation (upper right)=> patchy snow cover for snow depth less than threshold depth (veg-type dependent) => reduces surface albedo => more available energy at sfc=> skin temp can exceed 0 C => 2-m air temp rises further above freezing.
REDUCING SURFACE COOL BIAS OVER MELTING SNOWFEB 2001 ETA MODEL RETROSPECTIVE RUNS
warm advection/melting snowpack case: 00Z 02 FEB 2001, 60-hr model run
2-m air temp, current formulation2-m air temp, new formulation
North Platt, Neb.
0 C
=0 C
snowmelt
skintemp
2-m airtemp
model0 C
obs>0 C
18Z
North Platt, Neb.
18Z
0 C
>0 C
obs,model>0 C
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The new formulation has less cold bias in 2-m air temp than old operational formulation over this region of shallow melting snowpack.(obs=plotted numbers, model=color-shaded contouring; North Platt, Neb. circled)
REDUCING SURFACE COOL BIAS OVER MELTING SNOW
02 FEB 2001 warm advection/melting snowpack case
18Z 2-m air temp, old formulation18Z 2-m air temp, new formulation
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Mean diurnal cycle of 2-m air temperature of observations and Eta model 48-hr forecast from 12Z, averaged over 30-day WINTER period of 01 Feb – 01 Mar 2001 at all surface stations over East U.S.
Station OBS: solid OPS Eta/NOAH: short dash TEST Eta/NOAH: long dash)T
emp
erat
ure
(C)
Forecast Hour0 48
-3
+5
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Reducing Summer warm bias over non-sparse green vegetation00Z, 30 AUG 2000, 60-hr Eta model run
OLD2-meter
T=>
Td=>
NEW2-meter
T=>
Td=>
Champaign, Illinois
Solid Line: surface station observationDashed Line: coupled Eta / NOAH model forecastPhysics change: ground heat flux under vegetation, canopy resistance parameters
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Forecast Hour0 48
Mean diurnal cycle of 2-m air temperature of observations and Eta model 48-hr forecast from 12Z, averaged over 30-day SUMMER period of 12 Aug –12 Sep 2000 at all surface stations over East U.S.
Station OBS: solid OPS Eta/NOAH: short dash TEST Eta/NOAH: long dash)T
emp
erat
ure
(C)
17
27
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2-m Air Temp Bias: 48-hr Ops Eta Forecast valid at 00ZEAST
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JULY 2-m Air Temperature: EAST(Monthly mean diurnal cycle over 48-h fcst: Obs solid, model dashed)
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JULY 2-m Relative Humidity (percent): EAST(Monthly mean diurnal cycle over 48-h fcst: Obs solid, model dashed)
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N-LDAS Design(The Uncoupled Approach)
1. Force models with 4DDA surface meteorology (Eta/EDAS), except use actual observed precipitation (gage-only daily precip analysis disaggregated to hourly by radar product) and hourly downward solar insolation (derived from GOES satellites).
2. Use 4 different land surface models: – NOAH (NOAA/NWS/NCEP)– MOSAIC (NASA/GSFC)– VIC (Princeton U./ U. Washington)– Sacramento (NOAA/OHD)
3. Evaluate results with all available observations, including soil moisture, soil temperature, surface fluxes, satellite skin temperature, snow cover and runoff.
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1) REALTIME: 15 Apr 1999 to 15 Dec 2001
-- NCEP realtime forcing
2) RETROSPECTIVE: 01 Oct 1996 to 30 Sep 99
-- Mandated largely by spin-up issues
-- NASA-assembled retrospective forcing
--- Higgins NCEP/CPC reprocessed precipitation forcing:
---- more gages obs, more QC
--- Pinker U.Md reprocessed solar insolation forcing
---- better cloud screening, more QC
Rutgers University compared the soil moisture, soil temperature, surface flux results from the retrospective LDAS runs to observations over Oklahoma/Kansas for last retro year.
LDAS Run Modes:1) Realtime, 2) Retrospective
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LDAS Model Mean Annual Evaporation (mm) over Oct 97 – Sep 99
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LDAS Model Mean Annual Runoff (mm) over Oct 97 – Sep 99
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NLDAS Simulated River SystemNLDAS Simulated River SystemUpstream area [log10(km^2)] Travel time to outlet [days]
Large River basins River flow direction mask
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East Fork of White River at Columbus, IN
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Mean annual modeled normalized model runoff bias: Oct 97-Sep 99
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LDAS Monthly Evaporation Over Northeast CONUS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct
-96
Jan-
97
Apr
-97
Jul-9
7
Oct
-97
Jan-
98
Apr
-98
Jul-9
8
Oct
-98
Jan-
99
Apr
-99
Jul-9
9
Mon
thly
Eva
pora
tion
(mm
)
Mosaic
NOAH
VIC
Sacramento
LDAS Monthly Evaporation Over Southwest CONUS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct
-96
Jan-
97
Apr
-97
Jul-9
7
Oct
-97
Jan-
98
Apr
-98
Jul-9
8
Oct
-98
Jan-
99
Apr
-99
Jul-9
9
Mon
thly
Eva
pora
tion
(mm
)
Mosaic
NOAH
VIC
Sacramento
LDAS Monthly Evaporation Over Northwest CONUS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180O
ct-9
6
Jan-
97
Apr
-97
Jul-9
7
Oct
-97
Jan-
98
Apr
-98
Jul-9
8
Oct
-98
Jan-
99
Apr
-99
Jul-9
9
Mon
thly
Eva
pora
tion
(mm
)
Mosaic
NOAH
VIC
Sacramento
LDAS Monthly Evaporation Over Southeast CONUS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct
-96
Jan-
97
Apr
-97
Jul-9
7
Oct
-97
Jan-
98
Apr
-98
Jul-9
8
Oct
-98
Jan-
99
Apr
-99
Jul-9
9
Mon
thly
Eva
pora
tion
(mm
)
Mosaic
NOAH
VIC
Sacramento
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Fig. 16From Robock et al.
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July 1999 April 1999
Fig. 22 SGP ARM/CART Monthly Mean Diurnal Cycle of Surface Energy Fluxes
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April 1999July 1999
Fig. 24 Monthly Mean Diurnal Cycle of Surface Skin Temperature
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July 1998