lao state budget update jennifer kuhn legislative analyst’s office october 4, 2007

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LA O State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007 www.lao.ca.gov

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LAO State’s General Fund Condition In Millions

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Page 1: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

State Budget Update

Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October

4, 2007

www.lao.ca.gov

Page 2: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

2007-08 State Budget

Page 3: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

State’s General Fund ConditionIn Millions

Page 4: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Major Actions Taken to Balance Budget: Proposition 98Prop. 98 Funding Level Assumes Lower State Revenues

Page 5: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Major Actions Taken to Balance Budget: Relies Heavily on Special Funds

Uses almost $1.3 billion in transportation funds to relieve General Fund

Uses about $1.3 billion in tobacco securitization funds to relieve General Fund

Page 6: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Major Actions Taken to Balance Budget: Scores New General Fund Revenue

Scores $1 billion in one-time revenue from sale of EdFund

Scores almost $300 million in new revenue from amended tribal gambling compacts

Page 7: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Major Actions Taken to Balance Budget: Achieves Some Savings

Achieves almost $250 million in social services savings

Achieves about $330 million in Medi-Cal savings

Page 8: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Major Risks to State Budget

Volatility of General Fund revenues Transportation lawsuit Sale of EdFund Amount of tribal gambling revenue Court-ordered CalSTRS payment

Page 9: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

General Fund Spending by Major Program AreaDollars in Millions

Page 10: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

2007-08 K-12 Budget

Page 11: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Funding From All SourcesDollars in Millions

Page 12: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Ongoing Proposition 98In Millions

Page 13: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Ongoing Proposition 98: Major ActionsIn Millions

Page 14: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

One-Time And Special Funds: Major ActionsIn Millions

Page 15: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Governor’s VetoesIn Thousands

Page 16: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

K-12 Proposition 98Spending Per PupilIn Billions

Page 17: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Balance on Education Credit Card GrowsIn Millions

Page 18: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

A Look at the Coming Year

Page 19: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

2008-09 Budget Outlook

Heavy reliance on one-time monies for ongoing costs means large operating shortfall in 2008-09

2008-09 looks to be tight for K-12 education

Page 20: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

Year of Reform?

State Budget Reform?

Year of Education Reform?

Page 21: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

State Budget: Considerable Volatility in General Fund Revenues

Year-to-Year Percent Change in General Fund Revenues

Page 22: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

State Budget: Considerable Volatility in Annual Allocations

Year-to-Year Change in General Fund Revenues (In Billions)

Page 23: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

K-12 Education:Possible Finance Reform

Adequacy initiative or lawsuit

Weighted student formula

Categorical block grants

Page 24: LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4, 2007

LAO

LAO Work-in-Progress Relating to K-12 Finance Reform

Overview of programs serving economically disadvantaged students

Analysis of how districts use EL funds

Response to “Getting Down to Facts” studies