latihan powersim

8/17/2019 Latihan Powersim

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2

ANALISA PERTAMBAHAN POPULASI

MENGUNAKAN POWERSIM

1. Membuat Model Diami! Pe"tamba#a Po$ula!i

Le%el $o$ula!i di$e&a"u#i ole# 'umla# a&(a (ela#i"a da a&(a (ematia.

A&(a (ela#i"a di$e&a"u#i ole# )e"tilita! !eda&(a (ematia di$e&a"u#i ole#

umu". Le%el $o$ula!i ta#u ii !ebe!a" 1**. +e"tilia! $e" ta#u !e'umla# ,- da"i

$o$ula!i. Rata"ata umu" (ematia adala# $ada umu" /0.

Gamba" 1. Model Aali!a Po$ula!i

Kete"a&a iit Po$ula!i 2 1**

)lo3 Po$ula!i 2 4dt5Kela#i"adt5Kematia

au6 Kela#i"a 2 Po$ula!i5+e"tilita!

au6 Kematia 2 Po$ula!i7Umu"

8o!t +e"tilita! 2 ,-

8o!t Umu" 2 /0

Umur

Kelahiran

Fertilitas

Kematian

Populasi


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4

MENGUNAKAN POWERSIM

1. Membuat Model Diami! +lo3 ?a!# Keua&a

Le%el total ua& di$e&a"u#i ole# total $ema!u(a da total $e&elua"a. Total

$ema!u(a di$e"ole# da"i &a'i teta$ da ua& (e!e#ata !eda&(a total $e&elua"a

di$e"ole# da"i total $e&elua"a )lu(tuati): bia=a lailai da bia=a (ulia#. Ga'i teta$

di$e&a"u#i ole# $"e!eta!e (eai(a &a'i tia$ ta#u !e'umla# /-. Keai(a bia=a

#idu$ tia$ ta#u !ebe!a" 0- da (eai(a bia=a ta( te"du&a tia$ ta#u !ebe!a" *.;-

dai total $e&elua"a )lu(tuati) $e" ta#u. Data diambil $ada ta#u 9*10 da dalam

!atua 'utaa.

Gamba" ,. Model Aali!a ?a!# +lo3 Keua&a

Kete"a&a

Total_Uan

Pemasu!an

"a#i_Tetap

Uan_Ksehatan

enai!an_"a#i

Pertam$ahan_"a#i%ia&a_Kuliah

%ia&a_'ain2

Peneluaran

Total_Peneluaran_Flu!tuati(

%ia&a_)i*up

%ia&a_Ta!_Ter*ua

Peneluaran_Flu!tuati(


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iit Ga'i@Teta$ 2 ;.>

)lo3 Ga'i@Teta$ 2 4dt5Pe"tamba#a@Ga'i

iit Total@Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati) 2 1

)lo3 Total@Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati) 2 4dt5Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati)

iit Total@Ua& 2 9*

)lo3 Total@Ua& 2 dt5Pe&elua"a

4dt5Pema!u(a

au6 Pema!u(a 2 Ga'i@Teta$519C4Ua&@K!e#ata

au6 Pe&elua"a 2 Total@Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati)4Bia=a@Kulia#4Bia=a@Lai9

au6 Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati) 2 Bia=a@Hidu$5Total@Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati)C4

Bia=a@Ta(@Te"du&a5Total@Pe&elua"a@+lu(tuati)C

au6 Pe"tamba#a@Ga'i 2 Ga'i@Teta$5Keai(a@Ga'i

8o!t Bia=a@Hidu$ 2 0-

8o!t Bia=a@Kulia# 2 1/

8o!t Bia=a@Lai9 2 19

8o!t Bia=a@Ta(@Te"du&a 2 *.;-

8o!t Keai(a@Ga'i 2 /-

8o!t Ua&@K!e#ata 2 1.;0

Time

T o t a l_ U a n

2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024

+40

+20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Time

Pemasu!an1

Peneluaran2

"a#i_Tetap3

Total_Peneluaran_Flu!tuati( 4

2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024

0

20

40

60

80

100

12

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4


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6

Gamba" 0. G"a)i( Aali!a ?a!# +lo3 Keua&a

Gamba" ,. Tabel Aali!a ?a!# +lo3 Keua&a

Da"i datadata =a& diambil da"i $"o&am $o3e"!im diata! ma(a di$e"ole#

(e!im$ula ba#3a titi( ol $ada total ua& =a& dimili(i te"'adi $ada a3al ta#u

9*9*. Rata"ata (eai(a $ema!u(a !ebe!a" ;.0 'uta $e" ta#u !eda&(a "ata"ata

(eai(a $e&elua"a !ebe!a" 1 'uta $e" ta#u. Pada ta#u 9*9* di$e"(i"a(a total

ua& me8a$ai . 'uta de&a a!um!i tida( ada (e'adia lua" bia!a =a& da$at

mem$e&a"u#i model !i!tem 8a!# )lo3 (eua&a =a& ada.

Time

2,0152,016

2,017

2,018

2,019

2,020

2,021

2,022

2,023

2,024

2,025

Total_Uan Pemasu!an Peneluaran Total_Peneluaran_Flu!tuati( "a#i_Tetap

+20.00 46.95 45.00 17.00 3.80+18.05 49.69 45.90 17.90 4.03

+14.27 52.59 46.85 18.85 4.27

+8.53 55.66 47.85 19.85 4.53

+0.717 58.92 48.90 20.90 4.80

9.30 62.37 50.01 22.01 5.09

21.67 66.03 51.17 23.17 5.39

36.53 69.92 52.40 24.40 5.71

54.04 74.03 53.70 25.70 6.06

74.37 78.39 55.06 27.06 6.42

97.70 83.01 56.49 28.49 6.81


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7

K e t e r s e * i a a

n_

, o * a l

'a#u_Kenai!an_%ia&a

Kenai!an_Peneluaran

PeneluaranFa!tor_Pen&esuaian

Pen&esuaian_Pro(it

Pro(it

'a#u_Pro(it

-ampa!_Keter$atasan_Pro(it

o*al_perasioanal

Ke$utuhan_o*al_/&ata

tan*ar_Kiner#a

Keterse*iaan_o*al


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Time

Pro(it1

Peneluaran2

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

25,000,000

50,000,000

75,000,000

100,000,000

125,000,000

150,000,000

1 21 2

1 2

1 2

1 2

1 2 1

2

1

2

1

2


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9

(it

Time

s e * i a a n_

, o * a l

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

0.0

0.5

1.0

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