GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP

Page 1

1724 Connect icut Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20009

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www.hart research.com

M E M O R A N D U M TO: California Latino Legislative Caucus

FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

DATE: February 2, 2015

RE: Recent Statewide Survey about 2016 US Senate Election

From January 27 to 29, 2015, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 600

likely California voters in the June 2016 primary. The survey, which has a margin

of error of ±4 percentage points, is representative of a statewide sample by region,

partisanship, and ethnicity.

While the campaign to succeed Senator Boxer is very much in flux, with

the field far from settled, our polling data indicates that a Latino candidate

could mount a strong challenge (in fact, the best-known Latino already

starts in a competitive position), and has the chance to energize an

electorate that is very pro-Democratic.

The following memo presents the key findings:

A plurality of primary voters expresses a preference to elect a Democrat

(48%) over a Republican (40%) in the generic ballot test for US senator.

Latinos in particular have a strong affinity for a Democrat, voting Democratic by an

overwhelming 66% to 20%.

Among the various figures mentioned as candidates (potential or

otherwise) for the US Senate seat, Kamala Harris and Antonio Villaraigosa

have the highest statewide profiles.

GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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Selected Public Figures’ Name Recognition

25%

25%

26%

41%

46%

62%

66%Antonio Villaraigosa

Kamala Harris

Loretta Sanchez

Alex Padilla

Ashley Swearengin

Adam Schiff

Xavier Becerra

By virtue of having the highest name recognition, both Harris and Villaraigosa have

respectable name recognition outside their respective political bases. Harris has

76% name recognition in the San Francisco media market, while three-fifths of

voters in the LA media market recognize her. Villaraigosa is known by more than

four in five voters in the LA media market, while slightly fewer than half the voters

in the San Francisco media market know him.

A hypothetical four-way match-up finds a very competitive situation, with

the lone Republican (Ashley Swearengin) holding a narrow lead over

Kamala Harris, and Antonio Villaraigosa maintaining a competitive

position.

31%

28%

18%

4%

19%

Preference in Four-Way Senate Trial Heat

AshleySwearengin

KamalaHarris

AntonioVillaraigosa

AdamSchiff

Undecided

Swearengin

Harris

Villaraigosa

Schiff

Undecided

LAmedia

31%

24%

24%

6%

14%

SFmedia

24%

42%

15%

1%

18%

Latinos

17%

20%

44%

5%

14%

GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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There are several encouraging poll findings regarding the potential for

Antonio Villaraigosa, or another Latino candidate with the ability to gain

statewide name recognition, to gain support in a primary election that is

fluid.

First, of the candidates named in the previous trial heat, Villaraigosa is the

top “second choice” in the four-way trial heat for US senator.

26%

19%

14%

6%

35%

Preference in Four-Way Senate Trial Heat,If First Choice Does Not Run

AshleySwearengin

KamalaHarris

AntonioVillaraigosa

AdamSchiff

Undecided

Second, the proportion of Latinos in our survey of primary voters was 17%, which

is a reasonable estimate for a traditional primary election, but far below the

population of voting-age Latinos (38%), the proportion of Latinos who are

registered voters (27%), AND the proportion of Latinos who voted in the 2012

presidential election (22%). There is some indication from our poll that a

viable Latino candidate could generate enthusiasm among this

constituency and even expand its turnout; overall, voters say they would feel

more favorable toward a Latino candidate by 13% (compared with 5% less

favorable), but that result increases to 33% “more favorable” among Latinos

(higher than, for example, the 27% of women who feel “more favorable” toward a

woman candidate).

In summary, our poll mirrors other recently released surveys which show Kamala

Harris with a head start among Democratic candidates, but her advantage over her

potential opponents is far from overwhelming given that she has been on the

statewide ballot TWICE since 2010. Given the fluidity that is typical of primary

elections and a constituency that has not voted in strong numbers but has the

potential to be energized, there is real potential here for a credible Latino

candidate.