lbohasbropensov4-140521054913-phpapp02

Upload: ravi-bhojani

Post on 08-Jan-2016

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

LBO

TRANSCRIPT

  • STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

    Nomura

    Connecting Markets East & West

    STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

    Nomura

    Hasbro, Inc. (HAS)

    May 2014

    LBO Presentation

    M&A Group

    Sean Penso

  • Table of Contents

    1. Introduction to Hasbro

    2. Investment Highlights

    3. Growth Opportunities

    4. Valuation and Financing Considerations

  • Introduction to Hasbro

  • Sources:

    1. Market Cap, Net Debt and TEV as of 5/14/14 at stock price of $54.95.

    2. Company filings and investor presentations.

    Overview: Founded in 1923 and headquartered in Pawtucket, Rhode Island,

    Hasbro, Inc. (Hasbro or the Company) is a global provider of childrens toys

    and family leisure products

    Employs >5,000 workers in the Americas, Europe, Asia/Pacific region and

    South Africa

    Products/Services: Marketed under four segments: (1) boys; (2) games; (3)

    girls; and (4) preschool toys

    Toys: sells boys action figures, vehicles, and playsets, girls toys, plush

    products, preschool toys and infant products, electronic interactive products,

    creative play, and toy-related specialty products

    Games: sells action battling, board, card, digital, electronic, mobile, and

    RPGs

    Television programming: produces and distributes broadcasting based on

    the Companys brands

    Distribution platforms include cable network, ITunes, and Netflix

    Licensing/ Movie Entertainment: license trademarks, characters and other

    property rights to third parties

    Clients: Wholesalers, distributors, chain stores, discount stores, mail order

    houses, catalog stores, department stores, and Internet retailers

    Financials Highlight (FY13): Revenue: $4.08b; Net Income: $2.01b; FY14E

    EBITDA: $839m; EPS: $2.83; FY14E PE: 16.8

    52-week range: 43.46 56.91; Market Cap: $7.13b(1) ~$570m Net Debt;

    TEV: ~$7.7b

    Awards: Fortune Rankings 100 Best Companies to Work For: 2011-13; Forbes

    Global 2000: 2010-11; Forbes 400 Best Big Companies in America: 2009

    1

    Company Overview 2013 Revenue by Segment

    US & Canada vs. International Sales

    Company Overview

    Entertainment &

    Licensing

    5%

    International

    46% US & Canada

    49%

    Global Operations

  • Sources/Annotations:

    1. Company filings. 2

    Franchise Brands Challenger Brands Gaming Mega Brands

    Hasbros Brands

    Partner Brands

    2013 Revenue by Segment

    Franchise

    44%

    Partnerships

    20%

    Games

    20%

    Challenger

    16%

  • 1,998 2,009 2,031 2,011 1,997 4,068 4,002 4,286 4,089 4,082

    Sources/Notes:

    1. All results are from Fiscal Year ending in the referenced period.

    2. Company filings and investor presentations. 3

    Revenue ($m) Net Income ($m) EBITDA ($m)

    Operating Performance Snapshot

    CAGR: 0.1% CAGR: 0.0%

    792 774 800 813 785

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    ($mm) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Sales 4,068 4,002 4,286 4,089 4,082

    COGS 2,070 1,993 2,255 2,078 2,085

    Gross Profit 1,998 2,009 2,031 2,011 1,997

    % margin 49.1% 50.2% 47.4% 49.2% 48.9%

    SG&A 1,387 1,403 1,427 1,390 1,441

    EBIT 611 606 604 621 556

    % margin 15.0% 15.1% 14.1% 15.2% 13.6%

    Total EBITDA 792 774 800 813 785

    % margin 19.5% 19.4% 18.7% 19.9% 19.2%

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Sales: 2009-2010: part of larger trend of financial

    crisis among large toy providers

    2011-2012: > $200m decrease in boys toys sales

    2012-2013: > $300m decrease in boys toys sales

    Gross Profit: 2010-2011: increase in COGS due to

    unfavorable manufacturing variances as a result of

    reduced games production

    2012-2013: increase in COGS due to a change in

    product mix

    EBIT: 2010-2011: SG&A expenses remained similar;

    lower EBIT margin from trend above

    2012-2013: (same as 2010-2011)

    EBITDA: 2010-2011: explained by trend in EBIT

    2012-2013: explained by trend in EBIT

    Commentary Key Income Statement Items

  • Sources:

    1. Company filings and investor presentations. 4

    Investment Highlights

    Attractive Financial Profile

    Strong Target Industry Drivers

    Opportunities to Increase

    Profitability

    Company historically has strong, stable cash flows

    Free cash flow has been positive for all of the past 5 fiscal years despite downward compression in the sector

    CAGR between 2009-2013 is 12.4%, with growth from $161.5m to $289.1m in free cash flow

    Hasbro holds a relatively standard debt profile compared to peers

    Total Debt/ TEV = 17.9% versus industry average of 20.8%

    Girls toys sales expected to drive growth with strong brands like My Little Pony products

    Girls toys sales were up 26% in 2013 vs. 2012

    Segment projected to increase from 21% of total revenue in 2010 to >26% of total revenue in 2019

    There are increasing opportunities for digital, mobile, and online engagement

    Combination of macroeconomic and company-specific factors enable these opportunities

    Emerging markets represent a huge potential for revenue growth and margin expansion

    Sustained double-digit growth within EMs where Hasbro products are offered

    Currently a global cost savings initiative in place to improve operating and other below-the-line margins

    Aimed to reduce operating costs by an annual gross amount of $100m by the end of 2015

    Achieved through focusing on fewer, more global brand initiatives, workforce reductions, facility consolidation and other process improvements

    Emerging markets show sustained operating margin expansion

    Can further improve margins via isolation

  • Key Growth Opportunities

  • Sources/Annotations:

    1. Other revenue streams account for $1b in revenue

    Select Analyst & Press Comments on Hasbros Q1 2014 Results

    Despite the EPS beat, we think the quarter was something of a mixed bag, with enough to keep both bears and bulls in their respective positions. On the positive side, sales were positive in a tough overall

    market, with strong continued growth in Girls and an improvement in Boys. BMO Capital Markets (Market Perform PT: $55)

    We believe Hasbro is well positioned for growth in 2014 and beyond. Although the current lineup of entertainment properties in 2014 and 2015, which should benefit Boys, is on the forefront of investors minds, we are most excited about the strength of the Girls division, which continues to showcase Hasbros creativityQ1 Revenue growth in Girls (+20.8%) offset worse-than-expected results across the other product categories. Barclays (Equal Weight PT: $58 increased from $55)

    The growth in Hasbro's sales of toys for girls contrasts with the fading sales of Barbie dolls, which dragged rival Mattel Inc to its first quarterly loss in nearly five yearsHasbro has tasted success with its My Little Pony franchise, including a TV series based on the equine characters with colorful bodies

    and manes. Thomson Reuters

  • Sources:

    1. Investor presentations and company filings.

    The My Little Pony Brand has experienced tremendous success globally

    My Little Pony Brand

    +199%

    +194%

    +203%

    +47%

    6

    2010-2013 Regional Growth Rates

  • Sources/Annotations:

    1. 5-Year CAGR of 96%.

    2. Company filings and investor presentations.

    Division Overview:

    $575m in revenue in 2013; comprised 14% of total revenue in 2013

    > 40% operating profit growth and significant margin expansion

    Operating margin of 10.1% of revenue in 2013 vs. 8.9% in 2012

    3-year CAGR of 113%; 5-Year CAGR of 96%

    Expected continuous double digit growth

    Number of Hasbro employees in EMs increased 2x between 2008 and

    2013

    50% of employees were outside the US in 2013

    Emerging markets represent a huge potential for revenue and operating profit growth, as well as

    margin expansion

    Emerging Markets Momentum

    8

    EM Revenues ($m)

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    153 192

    233

    399

    461

    575

    3-Year CAGR: 35%

    2 (4)

    6

    25

    40

    58

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    3-Year CAGR: 113%

    EM Operating Profit ($m)(1)

    25% Revenue Growth

    YoY

    45% Operating Profit

    Growth YoY

  • Valuation and Financing Considerations

  • Valuation Multiples

    Trading Comparables Analysis

    9

    Company Name

    Price at

    5/14/14

    (USD)

    % of

    52 Week

    High

    Equity

    Value

    Enterprise

    Value CY2014E CY2015E CY2014E CY2015E CY2014E CY2015E

    Total Debt/

    EBITDA

    Net Debt/

    EBITDA

    Hasbro $54.95 96.6% $7,133 $7,700 1.8x 1.7x 9.2x 8.6x 17.1x 15.5x 1.8x 0.7x

    Mattel $39.27 81.0% $13,322 $14,025 2.1x 2.0x 10.4x 9.5x 15.7x 14.0x 1.2x 0.5x

    LeapFrog Enterprises $6.65 55.6% $463 $295 0.5x 0.5x 6.0x 4.3x 33.4x 18.2x 0.0x NM

    BuildABear Workshop $13.64 95.8% $238 $194 0.5x 0.5x 6.7x 6.0x 27.3x 24.4x 0.0x NM

    Namco Bandai $22.02 88.2% $4,889 $3,877 0.8x 0.8x 5.3x 5.1x 14.9x 14.2x 0.2x NM

    VTech $13.51 85.3% $3,393 $3,298 1.7x 1.6x 12.3x 11.4x 15.9x 14.7x 0.0x NM

    Tomy $4.58 83.7% $441 $812 0.5x 0.5x 5.9x 6.2x 21.1x 18.9x 6.2x 3.3x

    Sanrio $32.51 51.0% $2,896 $2,690 3.5x 3.3x 11.3x 10.2x 21.1x 18.3x 1.1x NM

    Playmates Toys $0.38 65.1% $450 $383 1.3x 1.5x 4.1x 4.6x 7.1x 7.9x 0.0x NM

    Mean 1.38x 1.35x 7.75x 7.16x 19.55x 16.33x 1.07x 1.90x

    Median 1.35x 1.54x 6.70x 6.22x 17.14x 15.55x 0.17x 0.70x

    Revenue EBITDA Price / EPS

    Sources:

    1. CapIQ, FactSet, Equity Research, Company 8ks.

  • Sources:

    1. Equity Research Reports and company filings.

    Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

    10

    STUB-6mo

    ($mm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Terminal

    **Discount Rate of 9%

    EBITDA $489.4 $891.0 $940.0 $997.8 $1,059.6 $1,059.6

    Less: D&A (156.3) (272.0) (283.0) (300.4) (319.0) (157.8)

    EBIT 333.1 619.0 657.0 697.4 740.6 901.8

    Less: Taxes (35.0%) (116.6) (216.7) (230.0) (244.1) (259.2) (315.6)

    NOPAT 216.5 402.4 427.1 453.3 481.4 586.2

    Plus: D&A 156.3 272.0 283.0 300.4 319.0 157.8

    Plus / Less: Working Capital 0.0 (21.9) (2.4) (26.3) (28.1) (28.1)

    Less: CapEx (72.3) (131.0) (140.0) (142.0) (157.8) (157.8)

    Unlevered Free Cash Flows 300.5 521.4 567.6 585.5 614.5 558.1

    Perpetual Multiple

    Method Method

    PV of Operation CFs 2,123.4 27.9% 2,123.4 24.4%

    PV of Terminal CF 5,478.6 72.1% 6,567.6 75.6%

    Total Enterprise Value 7,602.0 100.0% 8,691.0 100.0%

  • Illustrative Pro Forma Capitalization

    Assumes purchase

    price of $8,074 million

    or 10x Jun-14E LTM

    EBITDA of $807

    million

    Fully prepayable

    capital structure

    After-tax weighted

    average cost of debt

    of 4.23%

    Key considerations Sources and uses

    Indicative pro forma capitalization

    11

    ($mm)

    Sources Uses

    Revolver (size TBD) - Purchase Price 8,074

    Term Loan A - Financing Fees 190

    Cov-Lite Term Loan B 4,000 Other Fees & Expenses -

    Second Lien Term Loan 2,000 OID Related Fees 80

    Equity 2,344

    Total Sources 8,344 Total Uses 8,344

    ($mm) x Jun-14 % of Total

    PF Jun-14 LTM EBITDA Cap Maturity Pricing

    Revolver (size TBD) - - - 5.0 years L+375bps / 1.00% / 0

    Cov-Lite Term Loan B 4,000 5.0x 48% 7.0 years L+375bps / 1.00% / 99

    Second Lien Term Loan 2,000 2.5x 24% 8.0 years L+800bps / 1.00% / 98

    Total Debt 6,000 7.4x 72%

    Equity 2,344 28%

    Total Capitalization 8,344 10.3x 100%

    LTM Jun-14 EBITDA 807

    Sources:

    1. Investor presentations and company filings.

  • Illustrative Summary Credit Stats

    Projections

    based on

    equity research

    consensuses

    through 2019

    Cumulative

    free cash flow

    of $1,896

    million through

    2019E

    Delevers from

    7.4x Jun-14E

    LTM EBITDA

    to 3.6x by

    2019E

    12

    ($mm) Actual Est. LTM Projected CAGR / Margin

    Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 2011-'13 2013-'18

    Revenue $4,286 $4,089 $4,082 $4,195 $4,354 $4,511 $4,620 $4,904 $5,208 $5,533 (2.4%) 6.3%growth (4.6%) (0.2%) 6.7% 3.6% 2.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%

    EBITDA 800 813 785 807 839 891 940 998 1,060 1,126margin 18.7% 19.9% 19.2% 19.2% 19.3% 19.8% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 19.3% 19.9%

    Jun - Dec 14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19

    EBITDA 800 813 785 807 489 891 940 998 1,060 1,126

    Less: Maintenance Capex (99) (112) (112) (117) (72) (131) (140) (142) (158) (168)Less: Growth Capex (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (3)

    Less: Total Capex (100) (113) (113) (118) (73) (132) (141) (143) (159) (171)

    as a % of revenue 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7%

    Less: Interest expense (395) (213) (355) (382) (407) (414) (405)

    Less: Taxes (63) (34) (79) (83) (88) (101) (120)

    Plus (Less): Change in working capital - (22) (2) (26) (28) (30)

    Free cash flow for debt repayment 169 303 332 334 358 400

    Cumulative 169 472 804 1,138 1,496 1,896

    Less: Mandatory Amortization (23) (40) (40) (40) (40) (40)

    Plus (Less): Revolver draw (paydown) - - - - - -

    Less: Optional debt repayment (146) (263) (292) (294) (318) (360)

    Free cash flow - - - - - -

    Cash balance - - - - - - 0

    Revolver - - - - - - -

    Bank debt 6,000 5,831 5,528 5,196 4,862 4,504 4,104

    Total debt 6,000 5,831 5,528 5,196 4,862 4,504 4,104

    Net debt 6,000 5,831 5,528 5,196 4,862 4,504 4,104

    Credit Statistics

    Bank debt / EBITDA 7.4x 6.9x 6.2x 5.5x 4.9x 4.3x 3.6x

    Total debt / EBITDA 7.4x 6.9x 6.2x 5.5x 4.9x 4.3x 3.6x

    Net debt / EBITDA 7.4x 6.9x 6.2x 5.5x 4.9x 4.3x 3.6x

    EBITDA / Interest expense 2.0x 2.3x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5x 2.6x 2.8x

    (EBITDA - CapEx) / Interest expense 1.7x 2.0x 2.1x 2.1x 2.1x 2.2x 2.4x

    Fixed charge coverage 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x 2.0x 2.1x

    FCF for Debt Repayment / Debt % 5.2% 5.2% 6.0% 6.4% 7.4% 8.9%

    Sources:

    1. Equity research reports, investor presentations and company filings.

  • Illustrative Returns Sensitivity

    Three Year Returns

    Five Year Returns

    13

    3-Year IRRs 3-Year MOIC

    Entry Multiple Entry Multiple

    9.5x 9.8x 10.0x 10.3x 10.5x 9.5x 9.8x 10.0x 10.3x 10.5x

    9.5x 28.3% 24.2% 20.5% 17.2% 14.3% 9.5x 2.1x 1.9x 1.8x 1.6x 1.5x

    9.8x 30.8% 26.6% 22.8% 19.5% 16.5% 9.8x 2.2x 2.0x 1.9x 1.7x 1.6x

    10.0x 33.2% 28.9% 25.1% 21.7% 18.6% 10.0x 2.4x 2.1x 2.0x 1.8x 1.7x

    10.3x 35.5% 31.1% 27.2% 23.8% 20.6% 10.3x 2.5x 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x 1.8x

    10.5x 37.7% 33.2% 29.3% 25.8% 22.6% 10.5x 2.6x 2.4x 2.2x 2.0x 1.8x

    7,670 7,872 8,074 8,276 8,478 7,670 7,872 8,074 8,276 8,478

    Exit

    Multiple

    Implied Entry EV

    Exit

    Multiple

    Implied Entry EV

    5-Year IRRs 5-Year MOIC

    Entry Multiple Entry Multiple

    9.5x 9.8x 10.0x 10.3x 10.5x 9.5x 9.8x 10.0x 10.3x 10.5x

    9.5x 25.3% 22.8% 20.6% 18.7% 16.9% 9.5x 3.1x 2.8x 2.6x 2.4x 2.2x

    9.8x 26.4% 23.9% 21.7% 19.7% 17.9% 9.8x 3.2x 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x

    10.0x 27.5% 25.0% 22.8% 20.7% 18.9% 10.0x 3.4x 3.1x 2.8x 2.6x 2.4x

    10.3x 28.5% 26.0% 23.8% 21.7% 19.9% 10.3x 3.5x 3.2x 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x

    10.5x 29.5% 27.0% 24.7% 22.7% 20.8% 10.5x 3.6x 3.3x 3.0x 2.8x 2.6x

    7,670 7,872 8,074 8,276 8,478 7,670 7,872 8,074 8,276 8,478Implied Entry EV Implied Entry EV

    Exit

    Multiple

    Exit

    Multiple

    Sources:

    1. Equity research reports, investor presentations and company filings.