CityofSeattle MayorsOffice/PoliceDepartmentInformingtheExpansionoftheLEADInitiative

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

ChristopherFisher,PhD,SeniorPolicyAdvisor

September25th,2015 Allfiguresaresubjecttofurtheranalysisandrevision.

PrimaryAnalyticQuestions

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1. WhatisthepenetrationrateoftheLEADinitiativeintheexistingservicezone? WhatisthesizeofthedrugrelatedcriminaljusticepopulationintheLEADzone? WhatproportionoftheseindividualshavebeenofferedLEADparticipation? Whatproportionoftheseindividualsareineligiblebasedonoperatingprotocols?

2. Whereareotherhighdensitydrugrelatedcriminaljusticecontactshappening? Whatisthesizeofthedrugrelatedcriminaljusticepopulationintheseareas? WhatproportionoftheseindividualshavecontactsintheexistingLEADzone?

WhatproportionoftheseindividualshavebeenofferedLEADparticipation? Whatproportionoftheseindividualsareineligiblebasedonoperatingprotocols?

3. Whatisthehistoryofjailbookingsofthesepopulations?

AnalyticOverview

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TheSeattlePoliceDepartmentprovideddataoncallsforservice(911),policegeneraloffensereports,individualscontacted,andarrestsforageneralperiodof2008throughMay2015.

TheKingCountyJailapprovedtheuseofjailbookingdata(suppliedforstatewideJusticeReinvestmentwork)forfurtherenhancingtheseanalyses.

Theincludedanalysesconsidereddatafor2011throughMay2015tomirrorthelaunchofLEADinOctober2011.

Kerneldensityanalysesofthe4.5yearsofdatarevealedthreeprimaryhighdensitylocationsfordrugrelatedcallsforserviceandarrests.TwowereintheexistingLEADzoneandthethirdprovidedthecreationofadraftCapitolHillexpansionzonetofacilitatefurtheranalyticwork.

Drugrelatedcallsandarrestswereidentifiedbyrecodingalleventswherethedescriptivedatafieldcontainedkeywordssuchasdrugs,narcotics,illegalsubstance,overdose,VUCSA,marijuana,etc.

AnalysesofCallsforService(911)InvolvingDrugs

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CalendarYear

TotalCitywideCalls

CallsinLEADZone

%ofCallsinLEADZone

CallsinCapitolHill

Zone

%ofCallsinCapitolHillZone

%ofCallsAcross

BothZones2011 16709 7495 45% 1626 10% 55%2012 17711 8526 48% 2072 12% 60%2013 17042 9211 54% 1574 9% 63%2014 18357 9626 52% 1367 7% 60%2015

(thruMay) 10746 5389 50% 598 6% 56%Total 80565 40247 50% 7237 9% 59%

Densityanalysesrevealthreesubstantialconcentrationsofcallsforservicefordrugrelatedconcerns

Downtown Pike/Pine Downtown Pioneer/Occidental CapitolHill Pike/Pine&CalAnderson

Theconcentrationhasebbedbutstillrepresents~60%ofalldrugrelatedcallsforservice

TheLEADZoneis1.51squaremiles(~2%oftotalSeattlearea)

TheCapitolHillZonewouldbe.35squaremiles(~0.5%oftotalSeattlearea)

AnalysesofDrugRelatedArrests

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CalendarYear

TotalCitywideArrests

ArrestsinLEADZone

%ofArrestsinLEADZone

ArrestsinCapitolHill

Zone

%ofArrestsinCapitolHillZone

%ofArrestsAcrossBoth

Zones2011 1548 687 44% 111 7% 52%2012 1080 474 44% 68 6% 50%2013 979 444 45% 86 9% 54%2014 740 281 38% 61 8% 46%2015

(thruMay) 287 118 41% 20 7% 48%Total 4634 2004 43% 346 7% 51%

Densityanalysesrevealthreesubstantialconcentrationsofdrugrelatedarrestssimilartocallsforservice.

Downtown Pike/Pine Downtown Pioneer/Occidental CapitolHill Pike/Pine&CalAnderson

Thereisabroaderdiffusionofarreststhancalls,butthesethreeareasstillrepresentclosetoorabove50%ofallcitywidedrugrelatedarrests.

Fortheentiretimeperiod(2011 May2015)acrosstheentirecity,3,531individualsaccountedforthe4,634totalarrests.

Halfofallindividualsarrestedcitywideondrugrelatedchargeshadsuchanarrestinthesezones(1,768peoplein2,350arrests)

1,507individualshadarrestsintheLEADZone 296individualshadarrestsintheCapitolHillZone

35individualshadanarrestinbothzones

AnalysesofBookedDrugArrests

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Densityanalysesrevealsimilarhighdensityareasforarreststhatresultedinjailbookings.

Downtown Pike/Pine Downtown Pioneer/Occidental CapitolHill Pike/Pine&CalAnderson

Thepatternforarrestsleadingtobookingsappearstofollowthetrendinwherearrestsoccur,withnoevidenceofparticularareasproducingadisproportionateconcentrationofbookings.

CalendarYear

TotalCitywideBookings

BookingsinLEADZone

%ofBookingsinLEADZone

BookingsinCapitolHillZone

%ofBookingsinCapitolHill

Zone

%ofBookings

AcrossBothZones

2011 1361 611 45% 105 8% 53%2012 911 400 44% 61 7% 51%2013 842 383 45% 74 9% 54%2014 651 248 38% 56 9% 47%2015

(thruMay) 249 102 41% 17 7% 48%Total 4014 1744 43% 313 8% 51%

CallsforService,Arrests,andUniqueOffenders

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7495

85269211 9626

5389

687 474 444 281 118575 422 371 247 114

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2011 2012 2013 2014 (thruMay2015)

LEADServiceZoneCallandEnforcementTrends

CallsforService Arrests UniqueIndividualsArrested

1626

2072

1574

1367

598

111 68 86 61 20100 59 74 57 20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2011 2012 2013 2014 (thruMay2015)

ProposedCapitolHillLEADServiceZoneCallandEnforcementTrends

CallsforService Arrests UniqueIndividualsArrested

Anapproximate10%conversionratefromcallstoarrestssuggestspolicewereusingalternativeresponses.

ShouldmorecallsbeaddressedwithaLEADreferralordoesexistingalternativeresponsemodelalreadyachievedesiredoutcomes?

JailDaysandRepeatArrests

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CalendarYear

AverageJailDaysforDrugBookings

CitywideMedianJailDaysfor

DrugBookingsCitywide

AverageJailDaysforDrugBookingsLEAD

Zone

MedianJailDaysforDrugBookings

LEADZone

AverageJailDaysforDrugBookingsCapitol

HillZone

MedianJailDaysforDrugBookingsCapitolHillZone

2011 26 3 28 4 18 32012 27 4 28 4 20 32013 19 3 17 3 19 5

AverageDailyPopulation

AverageDailyPopulation

AverageDailyPopulation

AverageDailyPopulation

AverageDailyPopulation

AverageDailyPopulation

2011 73 8 45 6 5 12012 55 8 33 5 3 0.52013 32 5 17 5 4 1

Evenwiththebiasedmeanmeasure,drugrelatedbookingsaccountforasmallnumberofjailbeds.

CalendarYear

Average(Median)#ofArrestsinPriorYears(2008)with1+currentdrugarrestCitywide

Average(Median)#ofArrestsinCurrentYearwith1+currentdrug

arrestCitywide

Average(Median)#ofArrestsinPriorYears(2008)with1+currentdrugarrestLEADZone

Average(Median)#ofArrestsinCurrentYearwith1+currentdrugarrestLEAD

Zone

Average(Median)#ofArrestsinPriorYears(2008)with1+currentdrugarrestCapitolHill

Zone

Average(Median)#ofArrestsinCurrentYearwith1+currentdrugarrestCapitolHillZone

2011 9.4(8) 4.6(3) 9.5(7.5) 3.9(3) 9.4(8) 4.3(3)2012 4.6(2) 3.1(2) 5.9(3) 3.3(2) 4.6(3) 5.2(1.5)2013 5.8(2) 3.2(2) 6.2(3) 3(2) 6.8(2.5) 5.3(3)

AverageJailBedsOccupiedbyDrugrelatedBookings

ArrestFrequencyofOffenderswithatleast1DrugrelatedArrest

Thereisnocleartrendinthearresthistoriesofthosearrestedeachyear(atleastonceonadrugrelatedcharge).

Thedecreaseinaveragenumberof2008YTDarrestsforthosearrestedeachyear,maysuggestthathighfrequencyoffenderswereexitingthesystem,insomemanner.

InitialTrends

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Consistencyinconcentrationofdrugrelatedcallsforservice,arrests,andjailbookings. Threegeographichotspots,withtwointhecurrentLEADservicezoneandoneinapotential

CapitalHillexpansionzone.

Existingandproposedservicezoneswouldcover2.5%ofSeattleslandareaandaccountfor~60%ofdrugrelatedcallsforserviceand~50%ofdrugrelatedarrests.

Themuchlargerexistingzoneaccountsfor~40%and~45%,respectively. Thereisanotunexpected,giventhefocusofLEAD,decreaseinarrestsandbookingsintheLEAD

servicezone.

Threeareassuggesttheneedforadditionalapproaches(Aurora,UniversityDistrict,&RainierValley,astheyhaveconcentrationsofenforcementwithoutamatchingdensityofcallsforservice.

Acrossall4.5yearsofarrestdata,thereare1,768individualsarrestedfordrugrelatedbehaviorinthesetwozones,representinghalfofallindividualsarrestedforsuchchargescitywide.

34%(597)oftheseindividualshaveaviolentoffense(proxyduetodataconcerns)jailbookingintheirpast(2008thruMay2015).

PendingAnalyses&Questions

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PenetrationRateDuetoconcernsregardingthereliabilityofconnectingLEADcontactstoarresthistoriesthroughpersonalidentificationnumbers(PINs),analysesofwhichdruginvolvedarresteeshaveandhavenotbeencontactedbyLEADarepending.

BehavioralHealthNeedsWitharrestdataandjaildatanowjoined,theidentifiedpotentiallyeligible~1,200individualswillbecrossmatchedwithFamiliarFacestodeterminetheproportionwithidentifiedmentalhealth/substanceabuseneeds

SystemResponsesFortheapproximately1,200LEADeligibleindividuals,theirSPDandjailcontactpatternswillbeexaminedtocraftapictureofsysteminvolvementandtheirresponsestothoseactions

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter 11

ThismaterialwaspreparedfortheCityofSeattle.ThepresentationwasdevelopedbymembersoftheCouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenterstaff.Becausepresentationsarenotsubjecttothesamerigorousreviewprocessasotherprintedmaterials,thestatementsmadereflecttheviewsoftheauthor(s),andshouldnotbeconsideredtheofficialpositionoftheJusticeCenter,themembersoftheCouncilofStateGovernments,orthefundingagencysupportingthework.

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