Leadership and International Climate Change Cooperation: From Copenhagen to Paris

Charles Parker & Christer Karlsson Department of Government, Uppsala University

Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University

Key Questions:• What is the role of leadership in the climate negotiations ?• Are there any leaders in the field of climate change and, if so, who are they? • What leadership visions do they espouse? • How do followers select climate leaders? • How will leadership impact the outcome in Paris?

Climate Change Leaders and Followers

Leadership is “a relationship between leaders and followers” (Underdal,1994:181)

Change the pay-offs by rewarding cooperative behaviour or punishing non-cooperative behaviour

Change the fundamental preferences through consciousness-raising (supplying new knowledge, proposing new solutions etc.)

Lead by example, thereby removing uncertainty and proving that proposed solutions actually work

Leadership recognition, main actors COP 14-20, 2008-2014 (percentages)

2008COP14

2009COP15

2010COP16

2011COP17

2012COP18

2013COP19

2014COP20

Diff.

2008-14

EU as leader 62 46 45 50 51 48 48 -14

China as leader 47 48 52 50 48 42 48 +1

G-77 as leader 27 22 19 33 24 25 22 -5

US as leader 27 53 50 42 39 42 52 +25

N=3175

EU as leader US as leader China as leader

2008 2014 2008 2014 2008 2014

Delegates 58 51 19 46 50 44

Non-delegates 66 45 32 57 44 51

All 62 48 27 52 47 48

(1) Providing structural leadership: ability to provide resources and inducements

(2) Providing ideational leadership: ability to provide new ideas and solutions for dealing with the climate change problem

(3) Directional leadership (leading by example): ability to demonstrate a credible domestic climate change policy

(4) Instrumental leadership: ability to act as a broker to bridge problems in the negotiations

(5) Promoting the common good: overall commitment to solving the climate change problem

(6) Self-interest: Promoting/defending own country’s interests

Leadership factors – what motivates followers to support a particular leader?

Africa Asia Europe North

America

S&L

America

Oceania All

Structural leadership 5.53 5.29 5.12 5.26 5.48 5.35 5.29

Directional leadership 5.59 5.47 5.58 5.63 5.55 5.82 5.57

Ideational leadership 5.83 5.57 5.48 5.59 5.93 5.94 5.62

Instrumental leadership 5.52 5.14 5.76 5.63 5.77 6.07 5.56

Self-interest 4.62 4.64 3.86 4.54 4.49 4.48 4.37

Common good 6.25 6.07 6.23 6.13 6.21 6.29 6.15

Importance of factors for leadership recognition 2009-2011, by region (means)

Total number of respondents = 1579. The 95% confidence interval is 0.11--0.21

(1) No one clear-cut leader

(2) Fragmented leadership landscape

(3) Mismatch between supply and demand for leadership, for example, COP 15 in Copenhagen

(4) Promoting the common good is key for gaining recognition as climate change leader

(5) No single mode is sufficient if one is to be recognized as a leader

Main Findings

Paris Agreement?

• Paris Agreement: Will be a blend of the leadership visions of China, the EU, and the US

• Emerging “hybrid” architecture

• Institutional Design is likely to be a blend of bottom-up and top-down elements that balances national flexibility and international accountability to achieve broad participation but meaningful ambition.

What’s Next?• COP 21: Paris (30 Nov-11 Dec. 2015).

Prep meeting (Oct.). Heads of state meeting (27 Sept.). World Bank (Oct.)

• Parties are communicating their “intended nationally determined contributions” to the new Paris agreement (68 submissions).

• Agree to text on new climate agreement by end of COP 21 meeting in Paris, France.

Hope: Incremental Progress, Not PerfectionFear: Too SlowReality: Paris is an important step, but not a final

destination