lee county hotel overview - lee county vcb tourism | lee ... · real rate and revpar at all-time...

© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Lee County Hotel Overview Tourist Development Council

Ali Hoyt Director, Consulting & Analytics

[email protected]

© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Total U.S. Review

Lee County Performance

Forecasts

Agenda – February 9


www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Data Presentations”


Total U.S. Review


U.S. Market Cycle

Jan 2007

Dec 2016

$95

$100

$105

$110

$115

$120

$125

$130

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68


Slow and Steady Growth in 2016

2016, Total US Results

Actual % Change

Room Supply 1.6% p

Room Demand 1.7% p

Occupancy 65.5% 0.1% p

ADR $124 3.1% p

RevPAR $81 3.2% p


Today

1990-1992 Bad timing; S&L crisis

1996-2000 Too much supply despite growing

demand

2001-2003 Declining supply, but catastrophic demand

loss

2007-2010 Worst of all scenarios: sharply increasing supply at a time of

catastrophic demand loss

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Supply Demand

Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 12/1988 – 12/2016

New Supply Isn’t Devastating


ADR Growth Steady, Occ Growth Decelerating Rapidly

-10

-5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015

OCC % Change ADR % Change

Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/2000 – 12/2016


RevPAR Growth Slowing Down After 6 Years of Growth

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 2000 2010

Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 12/2016

56 Months 82 Months 80 Months 31 Mo


Real Rate and RevPAR at All-Time High

Source: STR, BLS; Inflation-adjusted ADR and RevPAR, ending Dec 2016; Inflation rate (All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items)

$55

$65

$75

$85

$95

$105

$115

$125

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Real ADR Real RevPAR

$120

$75

$123

$81


RevPAR Growth is Driven by ADR

-0.3 -0.2 -0.6

-0.2 -0.1 -0.4

1.7

2.2

2.7 2.5 2.5

3.4

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

Occupancy ADR

Chain Scales, Occ and ADR % Change, 2016


Upper End Hotels Still Very Busy

74.9 74.2 73.8

67.4

59.4 57.9


Chain Scales, Occ, 2016


Transient Segment – Rooms reserved at rack rate, corporate negotiated, package, government rate or rooms booked via third party websites.

Group Segment – Rooms sold simultaneously in blocks of 10 or more.


Limited Group Demand Growth

-2%

-1%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Transient Group

Group & Transient Demand % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 12/2016


Transient ADR Growth Slowing Despite High Occupancy

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Transient Group

Transient & Group ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2004 – 12/2016


New Supply Hits NYC, Houston, and Miami

Market Occ ADR % Chg

Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 81.3% 8.5%

Nashville, TN 74.8% 6.0%

Atlanta, GA 69.9% 5.8%

Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 71.6% 5.6%

Denver, CO 73.7% 5.5%

Chicago, IL 69.1% 1.4%

New Orleans, LA 68.8% 0.0%

New York, NY 85.9% -2.5%

Miami/Hialeah, FL 75.9% -2.9%

Houston, TX 62.3% -3.6%

Top 25 Markets, Occ and ADR % Change, 2016


New Construction Continues into 2017

Phase 2016 2015 % Change

In Construction 187 141 33%

Final Planning 199 180 10%

Planning 174 148 18%

Under Contract 560 469 19%

Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, Dec 2015 and 2016


Limited Service Construction is the Name of the Game

7.5

23.6

61.6 60.0

8.8

2.6

22.8

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, Dec 2016

65%

Hampton Inn, Holiday Inn, Courtyard, Hilton Garden Inn, Staybridge Suites…


Growing Number of Hotels with Declining Occ and ADR

Based on 2016 data, hotels reporting for 24 months

Positive

Positive Negative

Negative

35.8% 35.7%

13.9% 14.6%


Lee County Performance


Lee County At A Glance

Actual % Change

Room Supply -0.5% q

Room Demand -1.7% q

Occupancy 69.6% -1.2% q

ADR $149 3.3% p

RevPAR $104 2.0% p

Lee County, FL, 2016


Impressive Demand Growth for 5 Years

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16

Supply Demand

Lee County, FL, TTM Supply and Demand Percent Change, 2008 – 2016


Rates Still Growing at a Steady Pace

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16

Occ ADR

Lee County, FL, TTM Occ and ADR Percent Change, 2008 – 2016


Rates Rising Across Classes – Upper Upscale Highest

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%


Occ ADR

Lee County, FL Classes, Occ and ADR Percent Change, 2016


Transient Demand Lower in Q1

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 2016

Lee County, FL, Transient Demand, 2015 & 2016

-1.8% 2016


Group Demand More Volatile, Largest Declines in Q4

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 2016

Lee County, FL, Group Demand, 2015 & 2016

-1.4% 2016


Selected Florida Counties’ Performance

BRO

COL

LEE

MAN

MIA

MON

PAL

PIN

$113

$133

$153

$173

$193

$213

$233

$253

$273

$293

58% 63% 68% 73% 78% 83%

AD

R

Occ

BRO Broward

COL Collier

LEE Lee

MAN Manatee

MIA Miami-Dade

MON Monroe

PAL Palm Beach

PIN Pinellas

Selected FL Counties, Occ and ADR, 2016


Monroe County is the RevPAR Leader

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Broward Collier Lee Manatee Miami-Dade Monroe Palm Beach Pinellas

ADR Occ

Selected FL Counties, Occ & ADR, 2016


Only Half of the Counties Reporting RevPAR Increases

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Broward Collier Lee Manatee Miami-Dade Monroe Palm Beach Pinellas

Occ ADR RevPAR

Selected FL Counties, Occ /ADR/RevPAR Percent Change, 2016


New Supply

• TownePlace Suites Cape Coral Estero

• Drury Inn & Suites Fort Myers

In Construction (294 rooms)

• Fairfield Inn & Suites Bonita Springs

Final Planning (114 rooms)

• Old Corkscrew Plantation Golf Club Cottages

• Unnamed Hotel @ Harborside Event Center

• Staybridge Suites Fort Myers

Planning (290+ rooms)


Forecasts


Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2017:

Changing Months Holidays

• Easter – March to April

• Jewish Holidays – October to September

Rotating Cities or Large 2016 Events Market Events

• Super Bowl – San Francisco to Houston

• San Francisco – Super Bowl Shift and Moscone Center Renovation

• Los Angeles – Porter Ranch Gas Leak

• Washington D.C. – Inauguration (Jan 2016)

• East Tennessee – Wild Fires (Nov 2016)

• East Coast – Hurricane Matthew (Oct 2016)


Supply Growth Will Outpace Demand in 2017

Tourism Economics/STR U.S. Forecast

2017 Forecast

2018 Forecast

Supply 2.0% 2.2%

Demand 1.7% 2.0%

Occupancy -0.3% -0.2%

ADR 2.8% 2.8%

RevPAR 2.5% 2.6%

Source: STR, Tourism Economics Total U.S.


RevPAR Growth Driven by ADR

STR Lee County Forecast

2017 Forecast

% Change

Occupancy 69.3% -0.5%

ADR $153.68 2.8%

RevPAR $106.46 2.3%


Full Report Available for Download at:

http://str.com/research1


July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

Airbnb Trip Length Distribution for 7 US Markets


Hotel & Airbnb Occ/ADR for 7 US Markets


ADR Occupancy


Hotel & Airbnb Occupancy by Market



Hotels & Airbnb ADR by Market



Summary

Industry still at record-setting levels, but growth is slowing

RevPAR growth will come from ADR

New supply continues in many areas, not much activity in Lee County

A controlled landing for the industry is more likely than a crash

Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click “STR Data Presentations” from the drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com.

© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

lee county hotel overview - lee county vcb tourism | lee ... · real rate and revpar at all-time...

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