leen gorissen - experience the future 28/11/2012

26/11/2012

CoCo--creatingcreating the the FutureFutureTowards new leadership and coalitions in business

Presentation for the Vlerick Alumni Event ‘Experience the Future’

28 november 2012

Leen Gorissen

26/11/2012 2© 2012, VITO NV

The future will not be without challenges…

26/11/2012 3© 2012, VITO NV

The 4°C scenarios are devastating:

-the inundation of coastal cities;

-increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates;

-many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter;

-unprecedented heat waves in many regions;

-substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;

-increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;

-and irreversible loss of biodiversity,

And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes

with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan

for future adaptation needs.

World Bank report 2012

26/11/2012 4© 2012, VITO NV

The 4°C scenarios are devastating:

-the inundation of coastal cities;

-increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates;

-many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter;

-unprecedented heat waves in many regions;

-substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;

-increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;

-and irreversible loss of biodiversity,

And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes

with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan

for future adaptation needs.

World Bank report 2012

CAN BUSINESSES SUCCEED IN A FAILING WORLD?

26/11/2012 5© 2012, VITO NV

A transition will happen no matter what.The question is: will it be a positive or negative transition?

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Can we navigate towards a positive transition?

‘The future is not some place we are going to but one we are creating.

The paths are not to be found but made and the activity of making them changes both

the maker and the destination’ John Schaar - Futurist

‘The world will not evolve past its current state of crisis by using the same

thinking that created the situation’Albert Einstein

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» Our structures, routines, rules… have been designed to work in times of

stability and abundance

» They are no longer appropriate for our new reality. A reality of turbulence,

chaos, complexity, uncertainty and depleting resources. A reality of failing

systems: economic crisis, climate crisis, failing ecosystems, inequality….

» When a sense of direction is lacking and new pathways are needed, a

new perspective and vision needs to be developed.

» New questions need to be asked and answered:

» What is needed to develop sustainably*?

» How to make the transition?

* Sustainable = volhoudbaar

What is appropriate?

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» Innovate INNOVATIONINNOVATIONINNOVATIONINNOVATIONINNOVATIONINNOVATIONINNOVATIONINNOVATION» Identify frontrunners, pioniers, visionary people brooding on deviating ideas

» Protect, support and guide new ideas. Connect frontrunners and build

innovation networks that will develop new pathways.

» Co-create an inspiring long term vision that gives a sense of direction for the

short and medium term.

» Transition Research: science-based & action oriented» Understand system dynamics: hardware and software of society

» Empower pioneers through co-production and co-creation

» Experiment with new ideas and learn what works and what not

» Build reflective and pioneering capacity

» Evolve ‘From doing things better’ to ‘doing better things’

How to make the transition?

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Transition Research» …aims to understand and (if possible) influence the drastic long-term changes in

culture, structure and practice that are required for genuine sustainable development

(Rotmans 2003, Loorbach 2007, Grin et al. 2010)

» …uses appropriate guiding frameworks to improve understanding of the ongoing

processes, barriers, success factors, key players ... of effective change processes

towards sustainable systems which can help to learn, recognise and use the

possibilities to interfere, guide and facilitate the processes.

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Is transition research relevant for business?

Business As Usual is no longer an option

» Increasing uncertainty

» Failing business models

» Increasing environmental standards

» Volatility in energy prices

» Resource scarcity

» Ageing population

» Growing pressure from ‘connected’ society

» Changing attitudes of consumers

» …

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Transition Research in practice: KLC Limburg

» Transition approach to explore the KLC’s new role in a climate neutral Limburg:

» ARENA 1: Het systeem beter begrijpen

‘Over actoren, factoren en motieven’

» ARENA 2: Toekomstverkenning

‘Nadenken over het wensbeeld’

» ARENA 3: Transitiepaden

‘Van toekomstvisie naar toekomstgericht plannen’

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Transition Research in practice: Ghent

» Transition approach for a Carbon Neutral City of Ghent

» T arena’s with frontrunners

» Spin-off T arena’s, e.g. mobility

» T pathways & Long-term vision

» Icoonprojecten

» EUROCITIES AWARD 2012

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Transition Research in practice: Ghent

» Transition approach for a carbon Neutral City of Ghent

» Visionary scenario includes

» Make money work, but differently

E.g. towards new work regimes, new business models

» From globalisation to localisation

E.g. re-localisation, optimizing resilience and self-support

» Consumption & production 2.0: A circular economy

E.g. sustainable design and new forms of ownership, urban mining

» Economic development: measuring what matters

E.g. gross national hapiness

» Production and storage of energy, but different

E.g. towards an energy internet

» …

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Interface: learning from forests to reduce waste

» Interface recycled 80 milion

kg of old carpet , reduced

emissions with 71%, water use

with 74% and energy use with

44%.

» By redesigning its business

model, interface saved 405

miljoen USD and created

significant added value in

brand and reputation

(Anderson et al., 2010).

»This biomimetic design

reduces installation waste to

less than 1% compared to

conventional tiles and it

reached the top of the best-

seller list faster than any other

product in the company’s

history (Lovins, 2008).

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New business model inspired by biomimicry

» bios, meaning life, and mimesis, meaning to imitate

» emerging discipline in sustainability science

» studies nature’s models and then emulates these natural forms,

processes, systems, and strategies to solve human problems – sustainably

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What to do now to be successfull in 2022?

It is not the strongest of the species, nor the most intelligent that

survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.

Charles Darwin

Knowledge for transformation: e.g.

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What to do now to be successfull in 2022?

In short,In short,

Be the Be the changechange youyou want to want to seesee in the in the worldworld

Mahatma Mahatma GhandiGhandi

» Create a shift in business mindset

From competition to cooperation

From seperateness to interconnection

From ST benefit to LT value

From ‘control and command’ to ‘transition’ management

» Transform business mentality, business models and organisational culture

» Develop a strategy to guide the transition

– build reflective & pioneering capacity

– collaborate, experiment and build new coalitions

– develop a new role for business leadership 4SD, like interface

– create shared value for society and environment

» Learn, unlearn and relearn

26/11/2012 19© 2012, VITO NV

Thank you for your interest. Questions?

A vision by Luc Schuiten

More info www.vito.be

[email protected]

Lets build the future we want

26/11/2012 20© 2012, VITO NV

Chaos and dynamic: Transitions, the real thing

» In real life, transition processes are complex and cannot simply andunambiguously be fitted into available theoretic moulds. In fact,transitions are more about (creative) chaos than structure and order.

» This dynamic is also referred to as the Transition ManagementCycle . In other words, transition is about cyclic (and reflexive)continuation of thinking - acting - assessing - (re) thinking- acting-assessing ... Every end- or mid-point in the process can become anew starting point of another transition process at any given time.

»This cyclic character of transition processes is an important reasonwhy 'managing' these processes is so complex.

leen gorissen - experience the future 28/11/2012

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