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-
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference 2013
May 29-30, 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
AGENDA
The market in 2012 by technology, applications & battery suppliers
Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market
Supplier / customer relationship
Raw material cost
New entrants strategy
Raw material road map 2012-2030
xEV market in 2012
xEV forecasts up to 2025
Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025
2
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
REALITY 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Mill
ion
HEV
po
wer
ed b
y LI
B
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2011
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
AVICENNE 2007-2011
3
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
4
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2012
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
202 M Portable
PCs
>115 M Tablets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2012
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2000 2012
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Ye
ar
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2012
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, )
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2010
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, )
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
5
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, )
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
50 BILLION US$ in 2012
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
PORTABLE
SLI
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY
CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2012
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
MW
h
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCd
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,
MWh, 1995-2012
2002-2012 (CAGR)
NiCd: -2% per year
NiMH: + 4% per year
Li-ion: +25% per year
7
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY
CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2012
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
M$
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCd
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,
1995-2012
Note: Cell level
2002-2012 (CAGR)
NiCd: -6% per year
NiMH: + 7% per year
Li-ion: +14% per year
8
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS
SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES
9
Lead Acid
Nickel Cadmium NiCd
Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH Conventional Laminate
Lithium-Ion
...On
Advantage of ...
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature
range Self discharge rate Reliability (progressive
extinction)
Gravimetric energy density
Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate
Higher cyclability Voltage output Price
Gravimetric energy density
Volumetric energy density
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate
Higher cyclability Voltage output Price
Operating temperature range
Higher cyclability Self discharge rate Price
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature
range Higher cyclability Voltage output Self discharge rate
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature
range Self discharge rate Design characteristics
Lead Acid
Nickel Cadmium NiCd
Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH
Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability
Operating temperature range
Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability
Price Safety Discharge rate Recyclability
Higher cyclability Price
Operating temperature range
Higher cyclability Price
Volumetric energy density Higher cyclability Price
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density
(potentially) Design characteristics Safety Price
Operating temperature range
Higher cyclability
Conventional
Laminate
Lith
ium
-Io
n
Gravimetric energy density
Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Voltage output Design characteristics
Higher cyclability Price
Operating temperature range
Price
Volumetric energy density
Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Voltage output
Absolute advantages
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN
MARKET SHARE
Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market
in 2001 to less than 45% in 2012
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%1
99
4
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Rechargeable battery market by country
Japan
Korea
China
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
LIB market by country
Japan
Korea
China
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN
2012 IN VOLUME WORLDWIDE
SANYO-PANASONIC
21%
SAMSUNG SDI 24%
LG 17%
SONY 9%
BAK 4%
HITACHI MAXELL
3%
BYD 4%
LISHEN 6%
ATL 5%
OTHERS 7%
The worldwide Li-ion battery
market Company market share
in 2012 in volume:+4450 M cells
SANYO-PANASONIC is leading
the market
11
Companies Million
cells
SANYO-PANASONIC 920
SAMSUNG SDI 1070
LG 760
SONY 380
BAK 195
HITACHI MAXELL 150
BYD 160
LISHEN 260
ATL 230
OTHERS 305
TOTAL 4 450
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN
2012 IN VALUE WORLDWIDE
SANYO-PANASONIC
19%
SAMSUNG SDI 20%
LG 18%
SONY 9%
LISHEN 5%
ATL 5%
BAK 3%
HITACHI MAXELL
3%
NEC 3%
BYD 3%
OTHERS 12%
The worldwide Li-ion battery
market Company market share
in 2012 in value 10 500 M$
SANYO-PANASONIC is leading
the market
12
Primearth EV Energy : JV Toyota (80.5%) & Panasonic (19.5%)
Companies Million
US $
SANYO-PANASONIC 2 025
SAMSUNG SDI 2 075
LG 1 930
SONY 880
LISHEN 500
ATL 510
BAK 350
HITACHI MAXELL 330
NEC 340
BYD 280
OTHERS 1280
TOTAL 10 500
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
MAJOR LI-ION MANUFACTURERS
YEARLY PRODUCTION 2001-2012
SONY
Sanyo-Panasonic
MAXELL
BYD
LG Chem
SDI
LISHEN BAK
ATL
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ion
cel
ls /
Yea
r
Samsung SDI & LG Chem are growing very fast
Panasonic acquired Sanyo in Dec 2009
13
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
4 450 M cells 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
14
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
15
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
4 450 M cells 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
16
BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING
DRASTICALLY
In 10 Years 80% price decreasing
despite a fluctuating Co price
Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)
Source: UMICORE, march 2011
18650 oversupply ratio is
increasing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M c
ells
/Y
ear
Supply Demand Oversupply ratio
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
M c
ells
/m
on
th
BAK
ATL
Lishen
E-One
LG
SDI
MAXELL
SONY
PANASONIC
SANYO
Production capacity 2009/2011:
from 150 to 250 M cells/month
Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST
IS RAW MATERIALS
RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS
RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT
17
Lithium ion cell average cost Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pro
du
ctio
n c
ost
LIB Cost structure for Japanese,
Chinese & Korean makers in 2012
Operatingprofit
Depreciation
SGA
R&D
Labor
Material
Cathode cost 21%
Anode cost 7%
Electrolyte 5%
Separator 8% Other
materials 13%
Depreciation 13%
Direct labor 6%
Energy, utilities
3%
R&D 6%
Sales & Adm 6%
Overheads 6% Margin
6%
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN
18
CATHODE SUPPLIERS
75 OOO T in 2012
Revenues: 1,85 B$
CAGR 02/12: +16%
ANODE SUPPLIERS
38 000 T in 2012
Revenues: 0,6 B$
CAGR 02/12: 14%
ELECTROLYTE
SUPPLIERS
29 000 T in 2012
Revenues: 0,46 B$
CAGR 02/12: 20%
SEPARATOR
SUPPLIERS
490 M m in 2012
Revenues: 0,9 B$
CAGR 02/12: 18%
CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
> 11 B$
Gross margin:
14 B$
Gross margin:
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
19
LIB CATHODE MATERIAL
Cathode raw materials market
LiCoO2 (LCO)
LiMn2O4 (LMO)
LiMPO4(1) (LFP)
Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC
Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 NCA
Supplier/customer by chemistry
Forecasts Source: SANYO, March 2011 (1) M= Fe or Mn
Source: LME
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$/k
g
Ni & Co price 2003-2011
Ni
Co
Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2011, Cannes
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS
BY CHEMISTRY
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials for LIB
in Tons, 2000-2012
Cathode active materials for LIB,
% of volume, 2012
20
LiCoO2 39%
NMC 30%
NCA 5%
LMO 18%
LFP 8%
()
LEADERS:
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials 2000-
2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in
2012: 75 000 Tons
21
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume
HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB
EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB
LCO 39%
NMC 30%
NCA 5%
LMO 18%
LFP 8%
Cathode active materials in
2025: > 330 000 Tons
LCO 24%
NMC 37% NCA
7%
LMO 11%
LFP 21%
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
22
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
38 000 TONS IN 2012
LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Source: Sanyo, March 2011
LIB Anode market, (Tons)
LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
To
ns
LTO
Si or Sn Type
Amorphous Carbon
Meso-Phase
Artificial Graphite
Natural Graphite
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012
0% 50% 100%
SANYO
SONY
PANASONIC
SDI
LGC
BYD
Lishen
Maxell
ATL
BAK
A123
Others
ARTIFICIAL
MCMB
NATURAL
Amorphous
METAL
23
Natural graphite become a commodity
Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Natural Graphite
61%
Artificial Graphite
28%
MCMB 6%
Amorphous 3%
Si or Sn Type 1%
LTO 1%
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)
()
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Hard Carbon
Soft Carbon
Graphite
Capacity (/g)
400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g
Capacity (/cc)
++ 0 +
Power ++ + 0
Stability ++ + 0
Cyclability ++ + 0
Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,
cellulose, wood,
coconuts
Petroleum coke
Natural or petroleum
coke
COST 2012->2020
30 -> 25 $/kg
25->20 $/kg
15 -> 10 $/kg
SUPPLIERS KUREHA
HITACHI HITACHI BTR
& many others
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012
LIB separator market, M$,
CAGR 2002/2012: +18%
LIB Separator supplier, market
share in 2012
24
Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,
ASAHI 25%
TORAY 21% SUMITOMO
1% ENTEK 3%
SK 12%
CELGARD 26%
UBE 7%
Others 5%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
M$
Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL ()
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
29 000 TONS IN 2012
LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2002/2012: +20%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market
share in 2012
25
Ube 9%
Mitsubishi 21%
In-House 3%
Tomiyama 3%
PANAX-ETEC 16%
Zhangjiagang Guotai-
Huarong 15%
Jinniu 10%
Capchem 9%
Shanshan 9%
Others 5%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ton
s
Cellular Portable PC Tablets
Power tools E-Bikes Auto
Others
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012
Electrolyte Battery makers &
suppliers relation in 2012
Electrolyte maker sales
2005-2012
26
Ube
Mitsubishi
In-House
Tomiyama
PANAX-ETEC1
ZGH
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ton
s
Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel
0% 50% 100%
Sanyo
Sony
Panasonic
SDI
LG Chem
BYD
Lishen
Maxell
ATL
BAK
A123
Others
Tons
PANAX-ETEC
Mitsubishi Chem
TomiyamaZhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.
Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.
LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)
Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).
So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.
27
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
28
Batteries take a long time to develop; to reach the
automotive market, another 4 to 5 years are needed
Source: Avicenne Energy analysis
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION RAW MATERIALS ROADMAP
29
Portable Batteries first Automotive & Portable market
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
2012-2025
Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book
Cellular Phones, Smart-phones
Tablets
Camcorders
Cordless Tools, Gardening tools
Digital Camera
Games, MP3
Cordless Phones
Shavers, Toothbrush,
RC Cars
E-bikes
Security lighting
Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV
Energy Storage
Others
Applications covered Parameters analysis
30
Main segment trends
Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)
Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,
2012 -2025 Forecasts
OEM strategies and positions
Main drivers & limiters
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
31
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2012-2025
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000 OTHERS
INDIA
ASIA
CHINA
JAPAN
EUROPE
USA
Cellular phones demand (M Units)
CAGR 2012-2025: +6%
Cellular Phones market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phones
trends
Laminates ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2012-2025
Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Polymer
Prismatic
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
32
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2012-2025
0
100
200
300
400
Emerging
Mature
Portable PCs demand (M Units)
2010-2025 CAGR: +4%
Portable PCs market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))
ASP decreasing ( 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cells demand 2010-2025
Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Laminate
Prismatic
Cylindrical
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
2025 LIB FORECASTS
EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
12
20
15
20
20
20
25
MW
h
Others
E-bikes
Household devices
Toys
MP3
Video Games
Digital Camera
Camcorders
Cordless Phones
Power Tools
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
LIB market, MWh, by application (except
Auto) - CARG 2012-2025: 11%
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form
factor (Except Auto)
33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr
Li-P IIT - March 2012 (1)
(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference Slide p 10
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
X-EV MARKET
Why x-EV ?
Definition & segmentation
X-EV worldwide in 2012 By country
By car makers
By battery chemistry
X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts
Battery chemistry forecasts
Battery cost forecasts
X-EV battery forecasts
34
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Million barrel per day
Price of the WTI1
barrel of oil, US $
CO2 regulation
worldwide
35
WHY X-EV ?
Petroleum
consumption
worldwide 1960-2030
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1973
2005
2007
2009
2011
201
3
Gas
olin
e P
rice
U
S$ /
Gal
lon
Cru
de
Oil
Pri
ce -
US
$ /
Bar
rel
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2012 2015 2020
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n (
g/km
)
Europe USA
Japan China
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
36
HEV, P-HEV & EV
DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
EV & HEV MARKET
EV 25 kWh
HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries
MICRO HEV*
MILD HEV
MEDIUM HEV
FULL HEV
P HEV 5 kWh
batteries
CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ
GM Saturn Vue GM AURA
GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD
HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT
MERCEDES S400
TOYOTA PRIUS
TOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION
MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $
Fuel saving Vs. Cost
HEV
P-HEV
EV
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
1,5 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2012
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2012
37
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
1,6%
1,8%
2,0%
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
HEV
wo
rld
wid
e p
en
etr
atio
n (
%)
Mill
ion
TOYOTA OTHERS
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOYOTA; 81%
HONDA
FORD GM
BMW
HYUNDAI PORCHE
Others
Total HEV Vehicles
+1,5 M in 2012
HEV sold per year, M units per
car manufacturers, 2000-2012
38
TOYOTA
HONDA
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
00
0 H
EV s
old
TOYOTA HONDA
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,
HYUNDAI
OTHERS: FORD, GM,
39
TOYOTA
HONDA
HYUNDAI 0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400 0
00
HEV
so
ld
TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI
FORD
GM
HYUNDAI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
00
0 H
EV s
old
FORD GM HYUNDAI
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY COUNTRY
USA 29%
EUROPE 10%
JAPAN 54%
OTHERS 7%
Total HEV Vehicles
+1,5 M in 2012
HEV sold per year, M units per
country, 2004-2012
40
USA
EUROPE
JAPAN
OTHERS 0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Micro hybrid not included
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
HEV FORECASTS
2012-2025
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
HEV
pen
etra
tio
n (
% o
f to
tal c
ar s
ales
)
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 5 M in 2020
41
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS
DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST
42
Li-ion penetration in electronic
devices & HEV
(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario
(2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario
(3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,
(4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009
HEV powered by LIB
forecasts from 2008 to 2011
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
HEV
po
wer
ed b
y LI
B
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
Micro hybrid not included
Cellular Phones
(to=1994)
Portable PCs (to=1994)
Power Tools (to=2004)
HEV Avicenne (to=2010)
HEV IIT (to=2009)
HEV AAB (to=2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Li-i
on
pe
net
rati
on
in e
lect
ron
ic d
evi
ces
& H
EV
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
43
LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR
HEV, P-HEV & EV
Recall slash battery profit
LIB >>> NiMH but
SAFETY & COST ISSUES
PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion
Volts 201.6 201.6
Cells 168 (28*6) 56
Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah
Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh
Weight 38 kg 25 kg
TC Range + +
Cyclability + ++
Safety
Cost
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
SAFETY ISSUES
44
New technologies are part of the solution to properly mitigate
Li-ion and LMP thermal stability
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
SAFETY ISSUES
45
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
Bac
kg
rou
nd
M
ob
ile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (Thermal runaway)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode
(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result
of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)
(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US with a Panasonic battery using NMC, NCA cathodes
Air
cra
ft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the planes shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
46
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE
VALUE CHAIN
47
The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components
Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected
Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi)
Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful
Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM
On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate
1
2
3
5
4
6
Comments
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
48
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500
PANASONICNISSAN Motor US
SonyBYD
LG ChemJCI
A123SanyoEner1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASASB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - CompactNissan - Renault (UK)
ToshibaBlue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen
BAKSAFT US
SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy
Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LIB BATTERY COST
Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, )
Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc cost structure :
CAPEX,
labor cost,
R&D
Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)
Raw material needs / mAh
Electrode process Yield
Assembly Process Yield
Cell manufacturing cost
Module manufacturing cost
Pack assembly cost
Costs analysis Battery price in 2012
$/kWh
49
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
LIB18650
cell
LIB EVCell
LIB packfor EV
LIB HEVcell
LIB packfor HEV
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2011-2020
LIB cell average cost
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
50
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
2015* 2020* 2011* 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode cost
Cathode cost 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
OtherMaterials
Electrolyte
Separator
Anode
Cathode
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
EV FORECASTS
2011-2020
EV sold, in million units,
worldwide, 2010 - 2020
EV impact on the LIB & raw
material market is HUGE
51
IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale
IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale
Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 Nov 2009
Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes
AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Power Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +20%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +12%
52
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
2000 2025
Rechargeable battery market,
M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)
Rechargeable battery market,
M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)
53
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
54
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
OptimisticScenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020
35 3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
55
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
N
iMH
ba
tterie
s
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
44%
MICRO HYBRID
50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
-
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
TAKEAWAYS
56
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +8%
Note: Excluding Energy Storage batteries
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MW
h Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)
NiMH (-4%) LIB (+6%)
LIB for xEV (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025)
25 B$
49 B$
60 B$
78 B$
92 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
2,3
15
11
23
52
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
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About
AVICENNE ENERGY
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
AVICENNE PROFILE
Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI
Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA
AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari
Information for Growth - Powering your companys market strategy
with in-depth research
The Rechargeable Battery market
21st Edition
Customized
survey
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
OUR BUSINESS STORY
1992 AVICENNE Creation
1994
AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities
AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN
1999 BATTERIES congress 1st edition in Paris
2003
AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL
2008 AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict
2009
AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing China
2010
Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN 20thEdition of The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020
2011
AVICENNE Energy division is created 13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress
2013 22nd Edition of The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2012-2025 15th Edition of BATTERIES CONGRESS
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
OUR METHODOLOGY
MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
Primary Research Secondary Research
Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys
Case Studies Reference Customers
Qualitative Quantitative Strategic
Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition
Track valuable Information's
Strategic Analysis
Presentation of the results
Q&A with customers
Customer Evaluation
INFORMATION COLLECTION
SUP
PLY
SI
DE
DEM
AN
D
SID
E
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO
RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
In Depth analysis Of applications
Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
OEM
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
BMS
Electronics
Substitution technologies
Conferences & Exhibitions
Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY
FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN
Source : Photo from BASF
Raw Materials
BMS & Electronics
Cooling Systems
Power Electronics
Batteries
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES
WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ARKEMA ASHLAND ATOFINA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA
DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI
ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCH LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA
ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP
MODERATOR
BATTERIES 2012, FRANCE (1999-2012) Owner, chairman & speaker The battery market 2010-2025
INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT Dec 2011, Shenzhen, China The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2010-2020
AABC Europe, Mainz (2012) The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020
THE 28th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2012 HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key (From 2004 to 2010)
EVER 2009, MONACO Challenges for EV market in Europe
EVS 20011, Battery market for automotive industry
CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide
Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009-2010 Chairman & speaker, The battery business 2009-2020
EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges
China Industry Battery Fair 2006 The Chinese battery Industry
Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year
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https://powersources.net/florida/28th.html
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
BATTERIES 2013
OCTOBER 14TH-16TH
3 days congress in France (Nice)
15th Edition (first edition in 1999)
500 attendees
40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,
80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,
www.batteriesevent.com
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Li-ion battery material
market review and
forecasts 2012-2025
3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference
2013
May 29-30, 2013
SUMMARY
A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years
Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault,
Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups
Knowledge
Methodology
Expert Network
Flexibility
We will help and support your growth
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