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  • Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

    Christophe PILLOT

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference 2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    AGENDA

    The market in 2012 by technology, applications & battery suppliers

    Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market

    Supplier / customer relationship

    Raw material cost

    New entrants strategy

    Raw material road map 2012-2030

    xEV market in 2012

    xEV forecasts up to 2025

    Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025

    2

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

    HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

    IIT 2007

    IIT 2008

    IIT 2009

    IIT 2010

    REALITY 0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1

    1,2

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    Mill

    ion

    HEV

    po

    wer

    ed b

    y LI

    B

    HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

    forecasts from 2008 to 2011

    EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

    2010 - 2020

    IIT (March 2010)

    AAB

    Deutsche Bank

    Roland Berger

    AVICENNE

    IIT (March 2011)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    2010 2015 2020

    Nu

    mb

    er o

    f EV

    so

    ld w

    orl

    dw

    ide

    ( M

    illio

    n)

    Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

    AVICENNE 2007-2011

    3

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    4

    THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

    DYNAMIC

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2000 2012

    Mill

    ion

    Un

    its

    / ye

    ar

    Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    202 M Portable

    PCs

    >115 M Tablets

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    2000 2012

    Mill

    ion

    Un

    its/

    Ye

    ar

    Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    60000

    70000

    80000

    2000 2012

    Ton

    s o

    f ca

    tho

    de

    / Ye

    ar

    Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

    0

    0,5

    1

    1,5

    2

    2,5

    3

    2000 2012

    $/W

    h

    Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    0

    50 000

    100 000

    150 000

    200 000

    250 000

    300 000

    350 000

    400 000

    450 000

    1990 2000 2010

    MW

    h

    Others (Flow battery, NAS, )

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    NiCD

    Lead Acid

    0

    50 000

    100 000

    150 000

    200 000

    250 000

    300 000

    1990 2000 2010

    MW

    h

    THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

    1990-2010

    0

    5 000

    10 000

    15 000

    20 000

    25 000

    30 000

    35 000

    1990 2000 2010

    MW

    h

    Others (Flow battery, NAS, )

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    NiCD

    Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

    Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

    5

    Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

    investments

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

    1990-2012

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    19

    90

    20

    00

    20

    10

    20

    12

    Bill

    ion

    US

    $

    Others (Flow battery, NAS, )

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    NiCD

    Lead Acid

    50 BILLION US$ in 2012

    5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)

    6

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    19

    90

    20

    00

    20

    10

    20

    12

    Bill

    ion

    US$

    OTHERS

    AUTOMOTIVE

    INDUSTRIAL

    PORTABLE

    SLI

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

    CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2012

    -

    5 000

    10 000

    15 000

    20 000

    25 000

    30 000

    35 000

    40 000

    45 000

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    MW

    h

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    NiCd

    The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,

    MWh, 1995-2012

    2002-2012 (CAGR)

    NiCd: -2% per year

    NiMH: + 4% per year

    Li-ion: +25% per year

    7

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

    CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2012

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    19

    95

    19

    96

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    M$

    Li-ion

    NiMH

    NiCd

    The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,

    1995-2012

    Note: Cell level

    2002-2012 (CAGR)

    NiCd: -6% per year

    NiMH: + 7% per year

    Li-ion: +14% per year

    8

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS

    SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES

    9

    Lead Acid

    Nickel Cadmium NiCd

    Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH Conventional Laminate

    Lithium-Ion

    ...On

    Advantage of ...

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature

    range Self discharge rate Reliability (progressive

    extinction)

    Gravimetric energy density

    Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate

    Higher cyclability Voltage output Price

    Gravimetric energy density

    Volumetric energy density

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate

    Higher cyclability Voltage output Price

    Operating temperature range

    Higher cyclability Self discharge rate Price

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature

    range Higher cyclability Voltage output Self discharge rate

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature

    range Self discharge rate Design characteristics

    Lead Acid

    Nickel Cadmium NiCd

    Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

    Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability

    Operating temperature range

    Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability

    Price Safety Discharge rate Recyclability

    Higher cyclability Price

    Operating temperature range

    Higher cyclability Price

    Volumetric energy density Higher cyclability Price

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density

    (potentially) Design characteristics Safety Price

    Operating temperature range

    Higher cyclability

    Conventional

    Laminate

    Lith

    ium

    -Io

    n

    Gravimetric energy density

    Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Voltage output Design characteristics

    Higher cyclability Price

    Operating temperature range

    Price

    Volumetric energy density

    Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Voltage output

    Absolute advantages

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN

    MARKET SHARE

    Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market

    in 2001 to less than 45% in 2012

    10

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%1

    99

    4

    19

    96

    19

    98

    20

    00

    20

    02

    20

    04

    20

    06

    20

    08

    20

    10

    20

    12

    Rechargeable battery market by country

    Japan

    Korea

    China

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    LIB market by country

    Japan

    Korea

    China

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN

    2012 IN VOLUME WORLDWIDE

    SANYO-PANASONIC

    21%

    SAMSUNG SDI 24%

    LG 17%

    SONY 9%

    BAK 4%

    HITACHI MAXELL

    3%

    BYD 4%

    LISHEN 6%

    ATL 5%

    OTHERS 7%

    The worldwide Li-ion battery

    market Company market share

    in 2012 in volume:+4450 M cells

    SANYO-PANASONIC is leading

    the market

    11

    Companies Million

    cells

    SANYO-PANASONIC 920

    SAMSUNG SDI 1070

    LG 760

    SONY 380

    BAK 195

    HITACHI MAXELL 150

    BYD 160

    LISHEN 260

    ATL 230

    OTHERS 305

    TOTAL 4 450

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN

    2012 IN VALUE WORLDWIDE

    SANYO-PANASONIC

    19%

    SAMSUNG SDI 20%

    LG 18%

    SONY 9%

    LISHEN 5%

    ATL 5%

    BAK 3%

    HITACHI MAXELL

    3%

    NEC 3%

    BYD 3%

    OTHERS 12%

    The worldwide Li-ion battery

    market Company market share

    in 2012 in value 10 500 M$

    SANYO-PANASONIC is leading

    the market

    12

    Primearth EV Energy : JV Toyota (80.5%) & Panasonic (19.5%)

    Companies Million

    US $

    SANYO-PANASONIC 2 025

    SAMSUNG SDI 2 075

    LG 1 930

    SONY 880

    LISHEN 500

    ATL 510

    BAK 350

    HITACHI MAXELL 330

    NEC 340

    BYD 280

    OTHERS 1280

    TOTAL 10 500

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    MAJOR LI-ION MANUFACTURERS

    YEARLY PRODUCTION 2001-2012

    SONY

    Sanyo-Panasonic

    MAXELL

    BYD

    LG Chem

    SDI

    LISHEN BAK

    ATL

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Mill

    ion

    cel

    ls /

    Yea

    r

    Samsung SDI & LG Chem are growing very fast

    Panasonic acquired Sanyo in Dec 2009

    13

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION IN 2012

    MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

    4 450 M cells 32 000 MWh

    10 500 M$

    CAGR 2002/2012

    +25 % per year in Volume

    +14% per year in value

    14

    -

    2 000

    4 000

    6 000

    8 000

    10 000

    12 000

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    M $

    Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

    Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M

    $

    Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

    Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION IN 2012

    MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

    15

    -

    5 000

    10 000

    15 000

    20 000

    25 000

    30 000

    35 000

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    M W

    h

    Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

    Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

    -

    2 000

    4 000

    6 000

    8 000

    10 000

    12 000

    14 000

    16 000

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M

    Wh

    Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

    Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

    Digital Camera Video Games MP3

    Toys Auto Household devices

    E-bikes Others

    4 450 M cells 32 000 MWh

    10 500 M$

    CAGR 2002/2012

    +25 % per year in Volume

    +14% per year in value

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    16

    BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING

    DRASTICALLY

    In 10 Years 80% price decreasing

    despite a fluctuating Co price

    Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

    Source: UMICORE, march 2011

    18650 oversupply ratio is

    increasing

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    -

    500

    1 000

    1 500

    2 000

    2 500

    3 000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    M c

    ells

    /Y

    ear

    Supply Demand Oversupply ratio

    0,00

    0,20

    0,40

    0,60

    0,80

    1,00

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    1Q

    09

    2Q

    09

    3Q

    09

    4Q

    09

    1Q

    10

    2Q

    10

    3Q

    10

    4Q

    10

    1Q

    11

    2Q

    11

    3Q

    11

    4Q

    11

    M c

    ells

    /m

    on

    th

    BAK

    ATL

    Lishen

    E-One

    LG

    SDI

    MAXELL

    SONY

    PANASONIC

    SANYO

    Production capacity 2009/2011:

    from 150 to 250 M cells/month

    Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST

    IS RAW MATERIALS

    RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS

    RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

    17

    Lithium ion cell average cost Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Pro

    du

    ctio

    n c

    ost

    LIB Cost structure for Japanese,

    Chinese & Korean makers in 2012

    Operatingprofit

    Depreciation

    SGA

    R&D

    Labor

    Material

    Cathode cost 21%

    Anode cost 7%

    Electrolyte 5%

    Separator 8% Other

    materials 13%

    Depreciation 13%

    Direct labor 6%

    Energy, utilities

    3%

    R&D 6%

    Sales & Adm 6%

    Overheads 6% Margin

    6%

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

    18

    CATHODE SUPPLIERS

    75 OOO T in 2012

    Revenues: 1,85 B$

    CAGR 02/12: +16%

    ANODE SUPPLIERS

    38 000 T in 2012

    Revenues: 0,6 B$

    CAGR 02/12: 14%

    ELECTROLYTE

    SUPPLIERS

    29 000 T in 2012

    Revenues: 0,46 B$

    CAGR 02/12: 20%

    SEPARATOR

    SUPPLIERS

    490 M m in 2012

    Revenues: 0,9 B$

    CAGR 02/12: 18%

    CELL

    MANUFACTURERS

    Revenues:

    > 11 B$

    Gross margin:

    14 B$

    Gross margin:

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    19

    LIB CATHODE MATERIAL

    Cathode raw materials market

    LiCoO2 (LCO)

    LiMn2O4 (LMO)

    LiMPO4(1) (LFP)

    Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC

    Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 NCA

    Supplier/customer by chemistry

    Forecasts Source: SANYO, March 2011 (1) M= Fe or Mn

    Source: LME

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    $/k

    g

    Ni & Co price 2003-2011

    Ni

    Co

    Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2011, Cannes

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

    CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

    BY CHEMISTRY

    -

    10 000

    20 000

    30 000

    40 000

    50 000

    60 000

    70 000

    80 000

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Ton

    s

    LFP

    LMO

    NCA

    NMC

    LCO

    Cathode active materials for LIB

    in Tons, 2000-2012

    Cathode active materials for LIB,

    % of volume, 2012

    20

    LiCoO2 39%

    NMC 30%

    NCA 5%

    LMO 18%

    LFP 8%

    ()

    LEADERS:

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

    FORECASTS 2000-2025

    0

    50000

    100000

    150000

    200000

    250000

    300000

    350000

    400000

    2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

    Ton

    s

    LFP

    LMO

    NCA

    NMC

    LCO

    Cathode active materials 2000-

    2025 - Tons

    Cathode active materials in

    2012: 75 000 Tons

    21

    ASSUMPTIONS:

    Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume

    HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

    P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB

    EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

    LCO 39%

    NMC 30%

    NCA 5%

    LMO 18%

    LFP 8%

    Cathode active materials in

    2025: > 330 000 Tons

    LCO 24%

    NMC 37% NCA

    7%

    LMO 11%

    LFP 21%

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    22

    ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

    38 000 TONS IN 2012

    LIB Anode Materials

    Source: Hitachi Chemical

    Source: Sanyo, March 2011

    LIB Anode market, (Tons)

    LIB Anode Materials

    Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

    0,0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1,0

    1,2

    0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    To

    ns

    LTO

    Si or Sn Type

    Amorphous Carbon

    Meso-Phase

    Artificial Graphite

    Natural Graphite

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012

    0% 50% 100%

    SANYO

    SONY

    PANASONIC

    SDI

    LGC

    BYD

    Lishen

    Maxell

    ATL

    BAK

    A123

    Others

    ARTIFICIAL

    MCMB

    NATURAL

    Amorphous

    METAL

    23

    Natural graphite become a commodity

    Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

    Source: Hitachi Chemical

    Natural Graphite

    61%

    Artificial Graphite

    28%

    MCMB 6%

    Amorphous 3%

    Si or Sn Type 1%

    LTO 1%

    Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)

    ()

    NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

    Hard Carbon

    Soft Carbon

    Graphite

    Capacity (/g)

    400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

    Capacity (/cc)

    ++ 0 +

    Power ++ + 0

    Stability ++ + 0

    Cyclability ++ + 0

    Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

    cellulose, wood,

    coconuts

    Petroleum coke

    Natural or petroleum

    coke

    COST 2012->2020

    30 -> 25 $/kg

    25->20 $/kg

    15 -> 10 $/kg

    SUPPLIERS KUREHA

    HITACHI HITACHI BTR

    & many others

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012

    LIB separator market, M$,

    CAGR 2002/2012: +18%

    LIB Separator supplier, market

    share in 2012

    24

    Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,

    ASAHI 25%

    TORAY 21% SUMITOMO

    1% ENTEK 3%

    SK 12%

    CELGARD 26%

    UBE 7%

    Others 5%

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    M$

    Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL ()

    NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

    29 000 TONS IN 2012

    LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

    CAGR 2002/2012: +20%

    LIB electrolyte supplier, market

    share in 2012

    25

    Ube 9%

    Mitsubishi 21%

    In-House 3%

    Tomiyama 3%

    PANAX-ETEC 16%

    Zhangjiagang Guotai-

    Huarong 15%

    Jinniu 10%

    Capchem 9%

    Shanshan 9%

    Others 5%

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    30000

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Ton

    s

    Cellular Portable PC Tablets

    Power tools E-Bikes Auto

    Others

    NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

    Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012

    Electrolyte Battery makers &

    suppliers relation in 2012

    Electrolyte maker sales

    2005-2012

    26

    Ube

    Mitsubishi

    In-House

    Tomiyama

    PANAX-ETEC1

    ZGH

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    Ton

    s

    Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel

    0% 50% 100%

    Sanyo

    Sony

    Panasonic

    SDI

    LG Chem

    BYD

    Lishen

    Maxell

    ATL

    BAK

    A123

    Others

    Tons

    PANAX-ETEC

    Mitsubishi Chem

    TomiyamaZhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

    IN LIB INDUSTRY

    The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

    Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

    LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)

    Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).

    So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

    27

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP

    28

    Batteries take a long time to develop; to reach the

    automotive market, another 4 to 5 years are needed

    Source: Avicenne Energy analysis

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION RAW MATERIALS ROADMAP

    29

    Portable Batteries first Automotive & Portable market

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

    2012-2025

    Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book

    Cellular Phones, Smart-phones

    Tablets

    Camcorders

    Cordless Tools, Gardening tools

    Digital Camera

    Games, MP3

    Cordless Phones

    Shavers, Toothbrush,

    RC Cars

    E-bikes

    Security lighting

    Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV

    Energy Storage

    Others

    Applications covered Parameters analysis

    30

    Main segment trends

    Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

    Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

    2012 -2025 Forecasts

    OEM strategies and positions

    Main drivers & limiters

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    market review and

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    31

    PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

    FORECASTS 2012-2025

    -

    1 000

    2 000

    3 000

    4 000 OTHERS

    INDIA

    ASIA

    CHINA

    JAPAN

    EUROPE

    USA

    Cellular phones demand (M Units)

    CAGR 2012-2025: +6%

    Cellular Phones market Drivers

    Emergent market

    Renewal ratio increase

    Smartphone penetration increase

    LIB cells for cellular phones

    trends

    Laminates ratio increase

    Increase of Thickness

    Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

    LIB cells demand 2012-2025

    Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Polymer

    Prismatic

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    market review and

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    32

    PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

    FORECASTS 2012-2025

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    Emerging

    Mature

    Portable PCs demand (M Units)

    2010-2025 CAGR: +4%

    Portable PCs market trends

    Mature market stable or decreasing

    Growth driven by Emerging market

    Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

    ASP decreasing ( 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

    2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

    LIB cells demand 2010-2025

    Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Laminate

    Prismatic

    Cylindrical

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    2025 LIB FORECASTS

    EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE

    -

    20 000

    40 000

    60 000

    80 000

    100 000

    120 000

    20

    00

    20

    05

    20

    10

    20

    12

    20

    15

    20

    20

    20

    25

    MW

    h

    Others

    E-bikes

    Household devices

    Toys

    MP3

    Video Games

    Digital Camera

    Camcorders

    Cordless Phones

    Power Tools

    Tablets

    Portable PCs

    Cellular Phones

    LIB market, MWh, by application (except

    Auto) - CARG 2012-2025: 11%

    2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form

    factor (Except Auto)

    33

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

    M c

    ells

    /yea

    r Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr

    Li-P IIT - March 2012 (1)

    (1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference Slide p 10

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    X-EV MARKET

    Why x-EV ?

    Definition & segmentation

    X-EV worldwide in 2012 By country

    By car makers

    By battery chemistry

    X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts

    Battery chemistry forecasts

    Battery cost forecasts

    X-EV battery forecasts

    34

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1960

    1970

    1980

    1990

    2000

    2010

    2020

    2030

    Million barrel per day

    Price of the WTI1

    barrel of oil, US $

    CO2 regulation

    worldwide

    35

    WHY X-EV ?

    Petroleum

    consumption

    worldwide 1960-2030

    0

    0,5

    1

    1,5

    2

    2,5

    3

    3,5

    4

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1973

    2005

    2007

    2009

    2011

    201

    3

    Gas

    olin

    e P

    rice

    U

    S$ /

    Gal

    lon

    Cru

    de

    Oil

    Pri

    ce -

    US

    $ /

    Bar

    rel

    Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government

    Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

    Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    180

    190

    2012 2015 2020

    CO

    2 E

    mis

    sio

    n (

    g/km

    )

    Europe USA

    Japan China

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    36

    HEV, P-HEV & EV

    DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

    Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

    EV & HEV MARKET

    EV 25 kWh

    HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries

    MICRO HEV*

    MILD HEV

    MEDIUM HEV

    FULL HEV

    P HEV 5 kWh

    batteries

    CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ

    GM Saturn Vue GM AURA

    GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD

    HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT

    MERCEDES S400

    TOYOTA PRIUS

    TOYOTA CAMRY

    FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION

    MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE

    NISSAN ALTIMA

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

    Fuel saving Vs. Cost

    HEV

    P-HEV

    EV

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012

    1,5 M HEV

    HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2012

    Penetration of hybrids in the

    global sales, 2000-2012

    37

    Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

    Micro hybrid not included

    0,0%

    0,2%

    0,4%

    0,6%

    0,8%

    1,0%

    1,2%

    1,4%

    1,6%

    1,8%

    2,0%

    0,0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1,0

    1,2

    1,4

    1,6

    HEV

    wo

    rld

    wid

    e p

    en

    etr

    atio

    n (

    %)

    Mill

    ion

    TOYOTA OTHERS

    USA

    JAPAN

    EUROPE

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Pen

    etra

    tio

    n o

    f h

    ybri

    ds

    in t

    he

    glo

    bal

    e s

    ales

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012

    BY CAR SUPPLIER

    TOYOTA; 81%

    HONDA

    FORD GM

    BMW

    HYUNDAI PORCHE

    Others

    Total HEV Vehicles

    +1,5 M in 2012

    HEV sold per year, M units per

    car manufacturers, 2000-2012

    38

    TOYOTA

    HONDA

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1 000

    1 200

    1 400

    00

    0 H

    EV s

    old

    TOYOTA HONDA

    Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

    Micro hybrid not included

    Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012

    BY CAR SUPPLIER

    TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,

    HYUNDAI

    OTHERS: FORD, GM,

    39

    TOYOTA

    HONDA

    HYUNDAI 0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1 000

    1 200

    1 400 0

    00

    HEV

    so

    ld

    TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI

    FORD

    GM

    HYUNDAI

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    00

    0 H

    EV s

    old

    FORD GM HYUNDAI

    Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

    Micro hybrid not included

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012

    BY COUNTRY

    USA 29%

    EUROPE 10%

    JAPAN 54%

    OTHERS 7%

    Total HEV Vehicles

    +1,5 M in 2012

    HEV sold per year, M units per

    country, 2004-2012

    40

    USA

    EUROPE

    JAPAN

    OTHERS 0

    100000

    200000

    300000

    400000

    500000

    600000

    700000

    800000

    900000

    2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

    Micro hybrid not included

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    HEV FORECASTS

    2012-2025

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    20

    00

    20

    02

    20

    04

    20

    06

    20

    08

    20

    10

    20

    12

    20

    14

    20

    16

    20

    18

    20

    20

    HEV

    pen

    etra

    tio

    n (

    % o

    f to

    tal c

    ar s

    ales

    )

    USA EUROPE JAPAN

    OTHERS WORLD

    HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 5 M in 2020

    41

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

    Mill

    ion

    USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

    Micro hybrid not included

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS

    DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

    42

    Li-ion penetration in electronic

    devices & HEV

    (1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario

    (2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario

    (3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,

    (4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009

    HEV powered by LIB

    forecasts from 2008 to 2011

    IIT 2007

    IIT 2008

    IIT 2009

    IIT 2010

    AVICENNE 2007

    REALITY 0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1

    1,2

    1,4

    1,6

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    Mill

    ion

    HEV

    po

    wer

    ed b

    y LI

    B

    Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

    Micro hybrid not included

    Cellular Phones

    (to=1994)

    Portable PCs (to=1994)

    Power Tools (to=2004)

    HEV Avicenne (to=2010)

    HEV IIT (to=2009)

    HEV AAB (to=2009)

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    Li-i

    on

    pe

    net

    rati

    on

    in e

    lect

    ron

    ic d

    evi

    ces

    & H

    EV

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

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    May 29-30, 2013

    43

    LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR

    HEV, P-HEV & EV

    Recall slash battery profit

    LIB >>> NiMH but

    SAFETY & COST ISSUES

    PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion

    Volts 201.6 201.6

    Cells 168 (28*6) 56

    Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah

    Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh

    Weight 38 kg 25 kg

    TC Range + +

    Cyclability + ++

    Safety

    Cost

    -50%

    -40%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    Op

    era

    tin

    g p

    rofi

    t/R

    eve

    nu

    e

    Sanyo

    MBI

    BYD

    SGS

    Sony

    NEC

    Maxell

    LGC

    SDI

    Average

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

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    May 29-30, 2013

    SAFETY ISSUES

    44

    New technologies are part of the solution to properly mitigate

    Li-ion and LMP thermal stability

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

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    May 29-30, 2013

    SAFETY ISSUES

    45

    Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

    safety concerns

    In the 80s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

    CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

    Bac

    kg

    rou

    nd

    M

    ob

    ile

    Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

    electrolyte.

    In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

    starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (Thermal runaway)

    CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

    400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

    Au

    tom

    oti

    ve

    With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

    (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode

    (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result

    of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)

    (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US with a Panasonic battery using NMC, NCA cathodes

    Air

    cra

    ft

    Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

    by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

    melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the planes shell.

    CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

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    May 29-30, 2013

    SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

    CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

    46

    Some technologies are already out of the game due to

    stability issues

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

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    May 29-30, 2013

    LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE

    VALUE CHAIN

    47

    The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components

    Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected

    Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi)

    Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful

    Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM

    On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate

    1

    2

    3

    5

    4

    6

    Comments

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

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    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    48

    LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

    2009-2015

    10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh in 2015

    A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

    Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500

    PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

    SonyBYD

    LG ChemJCI

    A123SanyoEner1

    Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

    GS YUASASB Limotive

    Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

    LG Chem - CompactNissan - Renault (UK)

    ToshibaBlue Energy

    Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

    BAKSAFT US

    SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

    AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)

    Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

    Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

    M$

    Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

    Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LIB BATTERY COST

    Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, )

    Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc cost structure :

    CAPEX,

    labor cost,

    R&D

    Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

    Raw material needs / mAh

    Electrode process Yield

    Assembly Process Yield

    Cell manufacturing cost

    Module manufacturing cost

    Pack assembly cost

    Costs analysis Battery price in 2012

    $/kWh

    49

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    LIB18650

    cell

    LIB EVCell

    LIB packfor EV

    LIB HEVcell

    LIB packfor HEV

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    LI-ION BATTERY COST

    2011-2020

    LIB cell average cost

    (EV design ; NMC cathode)

    LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

    FOR EV

    50

    * For Production > 100 000 packs/year

    2015* 2020* 2011* 0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    2011 2015 2020

    $ /

    kW

    h

    Margin

    Overheads

    Sales & Adm

    R&D

    Energy, utilities

    Direct labor

    Depreciation

    Others

    Separator

    Electrolyte

    Anode cost

    Cathode cost 0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    Ce

    ll

    Pac

    k

    Ce

    ll

    Pac

    k

    Ce

    ll

    Pac

    k

    $ /

    kW

    h

    Pack Cost

    CellManufacturing

    OtherMaterials

    Electrolyte

    Separator

    Anode

    Cathode

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    EV FORECASTS

    2011-2020

    EV sold, in million units,

    worldwide, 2010 - 2020

    EV impact on the LIB & raw

    material market is HUGE

    51

    IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale

    IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale

    Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 Nov 2009

    Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes

    AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

    IIT (March 2010)

    AAB

    Deutsche Bank

    Roland Berger

    AVICENNE

    IIT (March 2011)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    2010 2015 2020

    Nu

    mb

    er o

    f EV

    so

    ld w

    orl

    dw

    ide

    ( M

    illio

    n)

    4

    50

    45

    400

    1000

    10000

    25000

    1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

    Mobile Phone

    Portable PC

    Power Tools

    E-bikes

    HEV

    P-HEV

    EV

    Average Wh per device

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

    2025 FORECASTS

    EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

    CAGR 2012-2025: +20%

    Total battery demand (MWh)

    CAGR 2012-2025: +12%

    52

    0

    20000

    40000

    60000

    80000

    100000

    120000

    140000

    160000

    180000

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

    M W

    h

    NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

    NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

    LIB for EV

    -

    20 000

    40 000

    60 000

    80 000

    100 000

    120 000

    140 000

    160 000

    180 000

    2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

    M W

    h

    NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

    LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

    2000 2025

    Rechargeable battery market,

    M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)

    Rechargeable battery market,

    M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

    53

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    30000

    2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

    M $

    NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    30000

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

    M $

    NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

    2020

    Micro-hybrids car market

    2010-2020

    Micro-hybrid batteries

    54

    Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

    LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)

    Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    2010 2015 2020

    Mill

    ion

    Micro-hybrid car sold per year

    AVICENNE

    OptimisticScenario

    JD Power

    Valeo

    Micro-hybrid Full HEV

    Battery Advanced lead acid

    NiMH or LIB

    Cost ($) 300 3000

    Fuel saving 5% 20%

    Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

    35 3.5

    Advantages of micro-hybrid

    compare to HEV

    Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

    Much more impact on CO2

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

    BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

    BATTERIES

    55

    Stand

    ard

    Lead acid

    Batteries

    2010 2015 2020 AFTER

    Li-ion

    batteries

    N

    iMH

    ba

    tterie

    s

    STANDARD CAR

    88.5% EV

    P-HEV

    FULL

    HEV

    1%

    MILD

    HEV

    0.5%

    MICRO

    HYBRIDS

    10%

    Ad

    vanced

    Lead acid

    NiM

    H

    STANDARD CAR

    44%

    MICRO HYBRID

    50%

    EV

    P-HEV

    2%

    FULL

    HEV

    4%

    ULTRA

    BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    TAKEAWAYS

    56

    Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

    Battery Market 2010-2025

    CAGR = +8%

    Note: Excluding Energy Storage batteries

    RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

    MARKET WORLDWIDE

    2000-2025

    2000 2010 2020 2025

    MW

    h Others

    LIB

    NiMH

    NiCd

    Lead Acid

    2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

    Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)

    NiMH (-4%) LIB (+6%)

    LIB for xEV (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025)

    25 B$

    49 B$

    60 B$

    78 B$

    92 B$

    280 GWh

    380 GWh

    575 GWh

    775 GWh

    2,3

    15

    11

    23

    52

    32

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    THANK YOU

    Christophe PILLOT

    AVICENNE ENERGY

    [email protected]

    Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

    Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

    57

  • About

    AVICENNE ENERGY

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    AVICENNE PROFILE

    Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI

    Headquarter: Paris

    Liaison Office: Japan, USA

    AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

    5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

    Information for Growth - Powering your companys market strategy

    with in-depth research

    The Rechargeable Battery market

    21st Edition

    Customized

    survey

    59

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    OUR BUSINESS STORY

    1992 AVICENNE Creation

    1994

    AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities

    AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN

    1999 BATTERIES congress 1st edition in Paris

    2003

    AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL

    2008 AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict

    2009

    AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing China

    2010

    Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN 20thEdition of The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020

    2011

    AVICENNE Energy division is created 13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress

    2013 22nd Edition of The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2012-2025 15th Edition of BATTERIES CONGRESS

    60

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    OUR METHODOLOGY

    MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

    Primary Research Secondary Research

    Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours

    Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

    Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

    Case Studies Reference Customers

    Qualitative Quantitative Strategic

    Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players

    Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

    SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

    Track valuable Information's

    Strategic Analysis

    Presentation of the results

    Q&A with customers

    Customer Evaluation

    INFORMATION COLLECTION

    SUP

    PLY

    SI

    DE

    DEM

    AN

    D

    SID

    E

    61

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO

    RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

    In Depth analysis Of applications

    Cross Check Analysis

    Battery Makers

    OEM

    Raw materials suppliers

    Environment & recycling

    BMS

    Electronics

    Substitution technologies

    Conferences & Exhibitions

    Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts

    62

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY

    FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

    Source : Photo from BASF

    Raw Materials

    BMS & Electronics

    Cooling Systems

    Power Electronics

    Batteries

    63

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES

    WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ARKEMA ASHLAND ATOFINA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA

    DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI

    ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCH LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA

    ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

    64

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP

    MODERATOR

    BATTERIES 2012, FRANCE (1999-2012) Owner, chairman & speaker The battery market 2010-2025

    INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT Dec 2011, Shenzhen, China The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2010-2020

    AABC Europe, Mainz (2012) The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020

    THE 28th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2012 HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key (From 2004 to 2010)

    EVER 2009, MONACO Challenges for EV market in Europe

    EVS 20011, Battery market for automotive industry

    CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide

    Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009-2010 Chairman & speaker, The battery business 2009-2020

    EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges

    China Industry Battery Fair 2006 The Chinese battery Industry

    Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year

    65

    https://powersources.net/florida/28th.html

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

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    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    BATTERIES 2013

    OCTOBER 14TH-16TH

    3 days congress in France (Nice)

    15th Edition (first edition in 1999)

    500 attendees

    40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,

    80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

    www.batteriesevent.com

    66

  • Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

    [email protected]

    Li-ion battery material

    market review and

    forecasts 2012-2025

    3rd Israeli Power Sources Conference

    2013

    May 29-30, 2013

    SUMMARY

    A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years

    Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault,

    Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups

    Knowledge

    Methodology

    Expert Network

    Flexibility

    We will help and support your growth

    67