lian pin koh, phd ecosystem management group department of environmental sciences balancing societys...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lian Pin Koh, PhDEcosystem Management GroupDepartment of Environmental Sciences
Balancing Society’s PrioritiesReconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and
carbon conservation in Indonesia
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More mouths to feed...
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Higher quality food...
(Beef makes you a stronger man)
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More energy...
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Conserve biodiversity...
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Cap GHG emiss ions. . .
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Sustain development and livelihoods...
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Food
Development Biodiversity
Energy
Emissions
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Food or fuel?
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Biodiversity or food?
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Food DevelopmentBiodiversityEnergy Emissions
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Trade-off n. a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another
quality or aspect. It implies a decision to be made with full comprehension of the upside and downside of any choice.
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Develop science-based decision-support tools to help decision makers evaluate
trade-offs of pursuing alternative development options.
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Where & How?
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Production target
Business-As-Usual:Target most productive areas for
oil palm
Forest preservation:Target degraded areas & avoid forests
Food production:Avoid areas suitable for food
cultivation
Carbon conservation:Avoid lands rich in carbon
Hybrid strategy:Consider all priorities
Development pathways (scenarios)
Current production
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Outcome variables…
Area required for oil palm Forests & biodiversity
Food production capacity Carbon stocks
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Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA)Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA)
Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
GIS data layers:
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AB Dest
vailable
ata
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Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA)Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA)
Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
GIS data layers:New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):
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New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):
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Each polygon assigned conversion probabilities… BAU: proportional to relative oil-palm yield
Food production: inversely proportional to rice yield
Forest preservation: inv. proportional to habitat quality
Carbon conservation: inv. proportional to C-stock
Hybrid scenario: BAU*Food*Forest*Carbon
New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):
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http://dl.dropbox.com/u/939465/ScenarioAnalysis_PNAS.swf
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Priority areas for oil palm development under Hybrid scenario
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Financial returns
Livelihoods
Future Add-ons
… and others
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ConclusionEvery single-priority scenario
produced tradeoffs in other priorities
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ConclusionEvery single-priority scenario
produced tradeoffs in other prioritiesTradeoffs could be minimized
through implementation of properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy
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