lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand...

Lithium ion battery raw

material Supply &

demand 2016-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

March 22nd, 2017

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions

https://advancedautobat.com/conferences/automotive-battery-conference-Europe-2016/index.html

https://advancedautobat.com/conferences/automotive-battery-conference-Europe-2016/index.html


[email protected]

Lithium ion battery raw material Supply & demand

2016-2025

March 22nd, 2017 Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

0

1000

2000

3000

2000 2016

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

165 M Portable

PCs

195 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2016

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

2,6

0,15

0

1

2

3

2000 2016

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

6 900

178 000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2000 2016

Ton

s

Tons of cathode active materials

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2 2016: AVICENNE Estimation


[email protected]


2016-2025


THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2016

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016

MW

h Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments



[email protected]


2016-2025


0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

16

MW

h


1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)



[email protected]


2016-2025



1990-2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

902

000

20

052

010

20

1320

142

015

20

16

Bill

ion

US

$

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

65 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2000-2016)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators



[email protected]


2016-2025



IN 2016: US $ 65 BILLION

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000EV, E-Bus

Portable

SLI

Others

Marine

Medical devices

Seismic

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

Lead Acid LIB Others

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Seismic

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 22,8

Billion for

“other”

applications



[email protected]


2016-2025


LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

7

(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017

+78 000 MWh - 20 600 M$ (1)

5 675 M small cells

CAGR 2006/2016

+22 % per year in Volume

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

420

15

201

6

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices

Phones 17%

Portable PC 66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2016: 78 GWh

Electronic devices

40%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

13%

Auto, E-bus China 30%

Industrial, ESS 6%

Others 11%

2016: AVICENNE Estimation


[email protected]


2016-2025


LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS CAGR 2006/2016


Cell: +15,5% per year in value

Pack: +16% per year in value

8 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

0620

07

20

082

009

20

102

011

20

122

013

20

142

015

20

16

M$

Li-ion cells

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices -

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

201

42

01

52

01

6

M$

Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016

Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

+78 000 MWh - 20 600 M$ (1)

5 675 M small cells

2016: AVICENNE Estimation


[email protected]


2016-2025


LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST

IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS

RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

9

Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%P

rod

uct

ion

co

st

LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC

Operating profit

Proces Yield

Depreciation

SGA, overhead

R&D

Utility

Labor

Material

Cathode cost 22%

Anode cost 6%

Electrolyte 6%

Separator 7%

Other materials

11%

Depreciation 14%

Direct labor 4%

Energy, utilities

4%

R&D 6%

Sales & Adm 3%

Overheads 3%

Warranty 3%

Margin 7%

Cell Process Yield, Scraps

4%

Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017


[email protected]


2016-2025


LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

10

CATHODE

184 OOO T in 2016

Revenues: 4 B$

CAGR 06/16: +22%

ANODE

>88 000 T

Revenues: 0,9 B$

CAGR 06/16: +12%

ELECTROLYTE

>86 000 T

Revenues: 1,1 B$

CAGR 06/16 : 19%

SEPARATOR

1 300 M m²

Revenues: 1,3 B$

CAGR 06/16 : 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

20,6 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 1,3 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

25 B$

Gross margin:

<10%



[email protected]


2016-2025


11

LIB CATHODE MATERIAL

Cathode raw materials market

LiCoO2 (LCO)

LiMn2O4 (LMO)

LiMPO4(1) (LFP)

Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC

Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA Source: SANYO, March 2011

(1) M= Fe or Mn

Source: LME

0

50

100

150

$/k

g

Ni & Co price 2003-2015

Ni

Co

Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15


[email protected]


2016-2025


NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE

MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2000-

2016 (Demand)

(…)

LEADERS:

39 307

47 556

15 918 15 668

65 709

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

16

Ton

s LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Rationales

In 2016, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs

NMC is used in other electronic devices & xEV

NCA is used by 18650 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xEV

LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xEV

LFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China and for industrial applications

12 Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017


[email protected]


2016-2025


13

LCO DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+5% LCO demand details LCO Offer in 2015

LCO summary of outlook


LCO Price forecasts

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

Ton

s

LCO: Tablets, Smartphones

Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV

Power Tools, E-bikes

Other Electronics

Portable PCs

Smart Phones, Tablets

Internal 2% Nichia

9% Umicore

15%

B&M 10%

Easpring 6%

Reshine 15%

L&F 15%

Other China

8%

Others 2%

Shan Shan 9%

PULEAD 9%

19

29

19 21 21

14

9

7 6 5

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others

Demand: In 2015, LCO was used in most of the pouch cell lithium ion batteries for electronic devices like smartphones & tablets. Most OEM (Samsung, Apple, etc..) confirm that LCO will be the first choice for the future. Then, for portable PCs, penetration of LCO will increase thanks to thinner high end portable PC using pouch cells. LCO will not be used in large format cells where NMC is preferred.

Price: if the matal price are stable from 2016 to 2025, small cost decrese thanks to scale economy. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (Pulead, ShanShan, Reshine) will keep the lead. Not sure that Nichia will stay at the top.

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg


[email protected]


2016-2025


14

NMC DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025: +15% NMC demand details NMC Offer in 2015

NMC evolution


NMC Price forecasts

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

NMC: Electronics, EV, others Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


Nichia 9%

Umicore 15%

Internal 17%

L&F 6%

ShanShan 11%

KLK 2%

Others 12%

Jinhe 9%

Xiamen Tungsten

8%

Kelong 4%

Easpring 4%

Tianjiao 3%

20

30

40

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

$ /

kg

NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 NMC 111

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

811

622

532

111

Demand: Except xEV in China, NMC is driven by xEV: Nissan will switch from NCA-LMO to NMC for example. Then, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda all choose NMC. From 2012 to 2016 the clear trend was to switch from LMO-NMC 75/25 to LMO-NMC 25/75. LG, Panasonic and Samsung agreed that NMC will be the 1st choice for xEV first in Japan, US and Europe, and then, in 2020 in China. Price will decrease thanks to process manufacturing improvement. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (ShanShan) will keep the lead. LG and Samsung will outsource more (Internal part will decrease). As new entrant, BASF try to be on this market since 2011. There market share may increase.

NMC summary of outlook

ELEC

AUTO

IND OTH


[email protected]


2016-2025


15

NCA DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025: +11% NCA demand details NCA Offer in 2015

NCA evolution


NCA Price forecasts

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg

Demand: NCA are also used in electronic devices, in prismatic and cylindrical cells. Main NCA users in electronic devices are Panasonic, Sony and Samsung. They will keep using NCA but LCO will stay the first choice. Panasonic and Samsung confirm that they supply more and more power tools mfg with NCA (from 15% in 2015 to 25% in 2025). Other NCA usage is of course for the TESLA. We do not think TESLA will switch for another technology in the next years.

Price decrease thanks to better mfg. process

Supplier: Sumitomo will keep the lead thanks to Panasonic / Tesla. Toda Kogyo market share will probably increase thanks to BASF partnership.

NCA summary of outlook

ELEC

AUTO

IND

OTH

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

NCA: Tesla Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


Toda Kogyo 16%

Sumitomo 58%

Nihon Kagaku Sangyo

13%

Ecopro 5%

Others 8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ni 90%

Ni 87%

Ni 83%


[email protected]


2016-2025


16

LFP DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+8% LFP demand details LFP Offer in 2015

LFP summary of outlook


LFP Price forecasts

LFP demand is driven by xEV, E-Bus in China, e-bikes and Stationary application. Chinese industrial agreed that E-bikes, e-bus and stationary app will use LFP for the next 10 years. The cost and the life time are the main criteria and Energy density is not so important. Then, Chinese xEV mfg. (BYD, Kandi, Zotye, Baic, Chery…) told us that they will switch from LFP to NMC.

Price: Process manufacturing cost will decrease. Pulead forecast price @ 11-12$/kg in 2025.

Suppliers: Pulead will probably increase market share thanks to new contract with BYD and others Chinese battery mfg.

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LFP: Industrial, E-Bus Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


INTERNAL 36%

JOHNSON MATTHEY

8% ALEEES 7%

STL 8%

Pulead 9%

Zhuoneng 8%

Tatung 3%

Others 21%

Internal: BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High Tech Power source (Gxgk), Huanyu Power Source Co., Ltd., LG, A123 (Wanxiang EV Co., Ltd), Hi Power - Others: Hunan Haorun Technology, Henan Tianke, Likai , Tiehu Energy and many others

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others

AUTO

E-BUS IND

OTH


[email protected]


2016-2025


17

LMO DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+10% LMO demand details LMO Offer in 2015

LMO summary of outlook


LMO Price forecasts

Demand: LMO is almost never the first choice for Lithium ion cathode. But, LMO is low cost and bring stability to the cathode. LMO is used in power tools and will be used, blended with NMC. So, for the future, LMO demand will be mostly driven by NMC/LMO blended cathode used in EV worldwide, EV in China to replace LFP (2020) and later E-bus in China (2025).

Price: LMO price decreased a lot from 2010 to 2015. We think we almost achieve the lowest possible level.

Suppliers: Most of the supply will stay in China (ShanShan, Qyanyun, …).

Assumption: Lithium carbonate price 2016 – 2025 stable @ 10 $/kg

AUTO

E-BUS

IND

OTH

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LMO: AUTO Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


Nichia 5%

Nippon Denko

4% Yuan Yuan

5%

JGC 12%

Qyanyun 14%

ShanShan 9%

Others 18%

Reshine 9%

Mitsui 12%

POSCO ESM 12%

0

5

10

15

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others


[email protected]


2016-2025


CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025 Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in 2016

> 180 000 Tons

18

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2015-2025: +6% per year in volume

HEV: 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB, 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV: 0,4 M P-HEV/year + 0,5 M in China in 2020, 0,6 M in 2025 + 1M in China, 100% LIB

EV: 0,6 M EV/year in 2020 + 1M in China, 1M/year + 1,5 M in China in 2025, 100% LIB

Industrial & stationary: 2015-2025: +16% per year

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)

LCO 21%

NMC 26% NCA

9% LMO 8%

LFP 36%

Cathode active materials in 2025

400 000 Tons

LCO 16%

NMC 41%

NCA 10%

LMO 9%

LFP 24% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)



[email protected]


2016-2025


19

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

> 88 000 TONS IN 2016 LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2013

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


[email protected]


2016-2025


ANODE FOR LIB IN 2016

20

Natural graphite become a commodity

Source: Hitachi Chemical

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite

Capacity (/g) 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2015->2020

25 -> 20 $/kg 20->15 $/kg 7-13-> 6-10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR…


Natural Graphite

46%

Artificial Graphite

43%

Amorphous 7%

Si or Sn Type 2%

LTO 2%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2016)


[email protected]


2016-2025


21

NATURAL GRAPHITE: CAGR 2015-2025: +3% Natural Graphite demand details NG Offer in 2016

NG summary of outlook NG Price forecasts

Demand: small growth because new app. Need artificial Gr. This demand may change if the price decrease is more important for NG compare to AG. Price: The price will decrease fast because the supply is huge. Already over supply in China ( Capacity: BTR 30 000 Tons, Zichen: 10 000 Tons, Shinzom: 10 000 Tons, Sinuo: 8 000 Tons, Qingdao: 8 000 Tons, Jianxi Zhentuo: 7000 Tons, Kimwan: 5 000 Tons…). Then, a lot of new projects in China and Canada: Focus Graphite > 40000 Tons/year (2020*), Northern Graphite > 20 000 Tons/year (after 2018*) Syrah Resources Ltd. > 80 000 Tons (2020*)

Suppliers: BTR and new Chinese (Zichen thanks to ATL, - Shinzom thanks to BYD, CATL – Sinuo etc…). New entrant like Focus Graphite, Northern Graphite, or Syrah Resources Ltd. May change the market share in the future

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

HITACHI 11%

Shenzhen BTR 49% Mitsubishi

16%

Nippon Carbon

4%

POSCO Chemtech

4%

Others 16%

CHINA 65%

OTHERS 35%

Typical Product D50= 16 mm 350 mAh/g

5% irreversible cap. BET: 1m²/g

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg


* Subject to financing


[email protected]


2016-2025


22

ARTIFICIAL GR.:CAGR 2015-2025: +15% Artificial Graphite demand details Artificial Graphite Offer in 2016

Artificial Graphite summary of outlook


Artificial Graphite Price forecasts Demand: The demand will increase fast thanks to xEV market. Long life time requirement involve high level of purity and high consistancy, difficult to achieve with Natural Graphite.

Price will decrease fast thanks to better process efficiency, new process

Supply: Thanks to the best quality, Hitachi will keep the lead but Chinese main suppliers market share will increase (ShanShan mostly).

Production Capacity: Hitachi: 15 000 Tons, ShanShan: 15 000 Tons project in Lingang Park (Shanghai) to add 20 000 Tons/year, Mitsubishi: 7 000 Tons, JFE: 7000 Tons, Showa Denko: 3000 Tons

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s HITACHI 31%

Shanshan 38%

Mitsubishi 9%

JFE 11%

Showa Denko

5%

Others 6% CHINA

45% OTHERS 55%

Typical Product D50= 20 mm 365 mAh/g

1-5% irreversible cap. BET: 0,5m²/g

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg


[email protected]


2016-2025


LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2016

LIB separator market, M$ - CAGR 2006/2016: +13% Supplier, market share in 2016

23

Others: Shanghai Energy, Newmi, JGP, TDK, In house (BYD), Mingzhu, Tianfeng, Yiteng, BNE…

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

M$ Mm²

ASAHI 17%

TORAY 15%

SUMITOMO 6%

ENTEK 4%

SK 9% CELGARD

8%

UBE 6%

Senior 3%

Green 3%

Others 19%

Jinhui 4%

W-Scope 6%


In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage

segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery separator business


[email protected]


2016-2025


ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

> 86 000 TONS IN 2016 LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2006/2016: +26%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in

2016

24

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Ton

s

Portables electronics Power Tools

E-bikes Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV)

Auto & E-Bus China Industrial

Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

Ube 4% Mitsubishi

12%

In-House 9%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 8%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-

Huarong 15%

Mitsui 3%

Jinniu 8%

Capchem 14%

Shanshan 8%

Soulbrain 5%

TINCI 6%

Others 5%



[email protected]


2016-2025


BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2016-2025

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

25

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2016 -2025 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


[email protected]


2016-2025


2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

26

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-P Li-ion Pr

Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017

CAGR 16-25: + 6%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

00

2005

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

MW

h

Otherr PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


[email protected]


2016-2025


HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2016

1,8 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide,

2000 - 2016

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales,

2000-2016

27 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY - Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE 0%

10%

20%

30%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16P

enet

rati

on

of

HEV

Growth 2014-2015: +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV

Gazoline price impact on HEV market in

the US

0

1

2

3

4

0

200000

400000

600000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Gas

olin

e $

/ G

allo

n

HEV

sal

es p

er y

ear


[email protected]


2016-2025


PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +14%

Chinese Growth + 21%

China is leading the P-HEV

market thanks to high incentives

28 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

P-H

EV (

un

its)

OTHERS CHINA

SAIC

BYD

OTHERS

AUDI

PORSCHE

HYUNDAI

VOLVO

DAIMLER

BMW

HONDA

MITSUBISHI

VW

FORD

TOYOTA

GM

+16%

US 24%

JAPAN 2%

EUROPE 39%

CHINA 29%

Others 6%

USA

Japan

Europe

China

Others

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

P-H

EV (

un

its)


[email protected]


2016-2025


EV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +15%

Chinese Growth + 68%

China is leading the EV market

thanks to high incentives

29 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

P-H

EV (

un

its)

Other ChinaGACDongFeng NissanChanaJMCCHERYJACGeelyBAICZhidouZotyeKandiBYDOthersBOLLOREPSAHondaMITSUBISHIDAIMLERGMFordKIAVWSMARTBMW

+38%

US 15%

JAPAN 3%

EUROPE 21%

CHINA 55%

Others 6%

USA

Japan

Europe

China

Others

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

P-H

EV (

un

its)


[email protected]


2016-2025


NEV* DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

362 100 PHEV & EV sold in

China in 2016

PHEV & EV evolution

30

PHEV 23%

EV 77%

*NEV=PHEV+EV (New Energy Vehicles)

BYD 29%

KANDI 2% Zotye

15%

BAIC 14%

GEELY 4%

JAC 3%

CHERY 5%

JMC 3%

Changan 1%

TESLA 2%

SAIC 4%

OTHERS 18%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aou Sep Oct Nov Dec

PH

EV &

EV

sal

es

(Un

its)

2014 2015 2016


[email protected]


2016-2025


XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA

24000 16000

88000 116000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EV Bus

PHEV Bus

xEV buses market in China:

132 000 xEV Buses sold in 2016

Rationales

31

The Chinese government is working on addressing environmental issues. Central and local governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy policy is announced to be carried out until 2020, it is predicted that this market will be on an expansion trend centering on EV. However, due to the occurrence of the case of receiving subsidies illegally in 2015, the government has begun to strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after 2016.


[email protected]


2016-2025


32

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)

> 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017

TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Dec 2016

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

PANASONIC

NISSAN Motor US

Sony

BYD

LG Chem

JCI

A123

Sanyo

Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)

Dow Kokam

GS YUASA

SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

Lithium Energy Japan

Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem

Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba

Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)

Lishen

BAK

SAFT US

SAFT

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon

NEC Tokin

Mitsubishi H.I.

SK Energy

Panasonic EV

LiTec GmbH

TESLA (2014-2017)

BYD (2013 - 2015)

ATL (2014 - 2017)

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

(Invest end 2016)

Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh

2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments: 150 $ / kWh


[email protected]


2016-2025


TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

33


[email protected]


2016-2025


SAFETY ISSUES

34

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

Safety is a sine-qua-non selection criteria for batteries. The lithium ion

technologies that win will win partly on their safety argument, possibly

sacrificing some energy density.


[email protected]


2016-2025


LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost …

Costs analysis Battery price in 2016

$/kWh

35

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

LIB18650

cell

LIB EVCell

LIB packfor EV

LIB HEVcell

LIB packfor HEV



[email protected]


2016-2025


LI-ION BATTERY COST

2015-2025 LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch)

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR

EV

36 * For Production > 100 000 packs/year

(1) Active materials only

2020 2025 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

Other Materials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&DEnergy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Scraps

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)



[email protected]


2016-2025


LIB PRICE FORECASTS

37 Source: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change , March 2015

Avicenne Energy

http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Climate-Change-Batteries-Cheaper-than-2020-Projections.png


[email protected]


2016-2025


HEV FORECASTS

2000-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25H

EV p

enet

rati

on

(%

of

tota

l car

sal

es)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: <2 M units in 2016 – 2,5 M in 2020 – 3,3 M in 2025

38

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included



[email protected]


2016-2025


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

E-Bus Others

E-Bus China

EV in China

P-HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

2016 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 2025

39 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017

Thanks to very high incentives, China change the game

0,9 1,8

2,5 3,3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

E-Bus Others

E-Bus China

EV in China

P-HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

HEV

HEV, PHEV, EV & E-Bus PHEV, EV & E-Bus

0,69

1,6

3,1


[email protected]


2016-2025


TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV

2025 FORECASTS Li-ion for E-Buses, EV, HEV & P-HEV

Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2016-2025: +14%

Li-ion for E-Buses, EV, HEV & P-HEV

Battery needs (M$)

CAGR 2016-2025: +8%

40

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV

EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV

EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China



[email protected]


2016-2025


LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

41


Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

From 78 GWh in 2016 to 210 GWh

CAGR 2016/2025


2016: 78 GWh

2025: 210 GWh (Conservative)

Electronic devices

40%


13%


Industrial, ESS 6% Others

11%

Electronic devices

26%


15%


Industrial, ESS 8%

Others 16%

16%

17%

18%

13%

6%

CAGR 15/25 (Conservative)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

-

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-busChinaAuto, e-busExcl. ChinaElectronicdevicesRealistic

Optimistic

Optimistic (+23% per year)

Realistic (+17%)

Conservative (+13%)


[email protected]


2016-2025


LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS CAGR 2016/2025 +13 % per year in Volume

Cell: +7% per year in value

Pack: +8% per year in value

42 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

M$

Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.ChinaElectronicdevices

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

200

0

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

M$

Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025


11%

11%

12%

8%

0%

CAGR 15/25


[email protected]


2016-2025


TAKEAWAYS

43

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today Automotive & Industrial applications

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV

P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 11 B$ market in 2016 - 17 B$ in 2020 & 22 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2016: US$ 2,8 Billion for xEV and US$ 3,7 Billion for xE-Buses)

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020.

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years

ESS will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years

ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MW

h

Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+3%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%)LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+10%)

25B$ 30B$

61 B$

80 B$

> 95 B$

210 GWh

270 GWh

475 GWh

610 GWh

16

10

44

(CAGR 2016-2025)

22

(Pack level) 2,8

43B$

350 GWh

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +5% / Li-ion>+8%


[email protected]


2016-2025


THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

44

lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand...

Documents