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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service July 10, 2020 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade Growth in Meat Imports Driven by China Demand for imported meat in China remains incredibly strong as the protein deficit caused by African swine fever (ASF) continues to drive trade. Despite headwinds caused by COVID-19 and disruptions to the economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations. As a result, forecasts for pork, beef, and chicken meat imports are all revised upward. China continues to increase its share of the global market, accounting for over 43 percent of global pork imports and 29 percent of beef. All together, China now accounts for 28 percent of imports by major traders, up from 20 percent in 2019. Despite rising imports and growing production of chicken and beef, total meat consumption is expected to decline 4 percent this year. Beef The global beef production forecast for 2020 is revised down 1 percent from the prior forecast on lower-than-expected slaughter in Brazil, China, and North America. Temporary processing disruptions resulted in lower production forecasts for Canada and the United States, while year- over-year growth in China beef production is revised down in the face of stiff import competition. Meanwhile, depressed domestic beef demand and lower cattle prices in Brazil are causing producers to delay slaughter. The global beef export forecast for 2020 is unchanged at 10.7 million tons. Estimates for Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, and Mexico are revised higher while those for Canada and the United States are revised lower. Gains for both Argentina and Brazil reflect weak currencies and strong Chinese demand. Furthermore, the current economic environment has limited domestic beef demand, increasing exportable supplies. During 2020, Argentina and Brazil are

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Page 1: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service July 10, 2020

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Growth in Meat Imports Driven by China

Demand for imported meat in China remains incredibly strong as the protein deficit caused by African swine fever (ASF) continues to drive trade. Despite headwinds caused by COVID-19 and disruptions to the economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations. As a result, forecasts for pork, beef, and chicken meat imports are all revised upward. China continues to increase its share of the global market, accounting for over 43 percent of global pork imports and 29 percent of beef. All together, China now accounts for 28 percent of imports by major traders, up from 20 percent in 2019. Despite rising imports and growing production of chicken and beef, total meat consumption is expected to decline 4 percent this year.

Beef

• The global beef production forecast for 2020 is revised down 1 percent from the prior forecast on lower-than-expected slaughter in Brazil, China, and North America. Temporary processing disruptions resulted in lower production forecasts for Canada and the United States, while year-over-year growth in China beef production is revised down in the face of stiff import competition. Meanwhile, depressed domestic beef demand and lower cattle prices in Brazil are causing producers to delay slaughter.

• The global beef export forecast for 2020 is unchanged at 10.7 million tons. Estimates for Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, and Mexico are revised higher while those for Canada and the United States are revised lower. Gains for both Argentina and Brazil reflect weak currencies and strong Chinese demand. Furthermore, the current economic environment has limited domestic beef demand, increasing exportable supplies. During 2020, Argentina and Brazil are

Page 2: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

expected to export 25 and 26 percent of their respective beef production. For Brazil, this is a record high while for Argentina it is the highest proportion since the 1970s. Meanwhile, Canada and U.S. exports are revised lower on temporary processing disruptions and weaker demand from major buyers.

Pork

• Global pork production is raised 2 percent from the previous forecast to 96.0 million tons on higher expected output in China. Rebuilding of the swine herd continues as producers recover from ASF and take advantage of record-high prices, resulting in a 6-percent increase in the forecast. However, hog supplies are well below historic levels and pork production is forecast 15 percent lower year-over-year. In the United States, slaughter plant closures and measures to address COVID-19 related guidelines drives a 2-percent reduction in the forecast for U.S. pork production since April. Production is also lowered 2 percent for Brazil on reduced slaughter expectations. The European Union has faced limited COVID-related impacts on slaughtering thus far and production is marginally lowered. Canada’s production is raised due to strong demand for exports.

• Global pork exports are raised to 10.9 million tons, almost entirely on strong demand from China. China’s imports are raised to 4.4 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 3.9 million tons. China’s demand continues to buoy global demand while crowding out demand from several more price-sensitive markets. Imports are lowered for the Philippines. While production has fallen due to the spread of ASF, Philippine imports have been slow to rise due to limited cold storage capacity and weak demand in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector.

Chicken Meat

• The forecast for global chicken meat production is revised marginally lower to 100.0 million tons as declines in the United States and China are more than offset by growth in Brazil and the EU. Despite a dampening in the outlook, world production in 2020 remains higher (nearly 1 percent) versus last year. Demand will be relatively resilient as consumers pursue lower-priced animal protein in the face of an economic downturn.

• Global chicken meat exports are revised 1 percent higher to 11.8 million tons as robust China demand propels Brazil, Thailand, and U.S. shipments. Traditional leading global suppliers, Brazil and the United States, are expected to better withstand COVID-related trade disruptions compared to emerging exporters. As a result, Brazil and U.S. exports are forecast to increase their share of global trade to a combined 63 percent. With highly pathogenic avian influenza-related restrictions in place, the European Union is unable to capture the benefit of rising China imports. That constraint, partnered with depressed shipments to several key markets (Ukraine, South Africa, Vietnam, and Benin) spurs a downward revision to the EU export forecast.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 3: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Beef and Veal Beef Summary Tables.………………………………………………………………………………….. 4 Cattle Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 6 Pork

Pork Summary Tables……………………………………………………………………………………. 8 Swine Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 10 Chicken Meat Chicken Meat Summary Tables …………………………………………………………………….. 12 Notes to Readers……………………………………………………………………………………… 14

Table of Contents

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 4: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Production

3,0853,1253,1203,0502,8402,650 Argentina 3,100

2,0852,4322,4322,3062,1492,125 Australia 2,085

10,31010,20010,2009,9009,5509,284 Brazil 10,000

1,3751,3401,3401,2651,2011,130 Canada 1,280

6,9506,6706,6706,4406,3466,169 China 6,780

7,8007,9287,9008,0037,8697,880 European Union 7,850

555666 Hong Kong 5

475471471475469465 Japan 475

291286286279281277 Korea, South 291

2,0652,0302,0301,9801,9251,879 Mexico 2,065

675713713672654648 New Zealand 675

13,90113,67313,67314,05813,96414,012 Others 13,901

49,01749,32749,29448,43447,25446,525 Total Foreign 48,507

12,51512,38312,38112,25711,94311,507 United States 12,281

61,53261,71061,67560,69159,19758,032 Total 60,788

none none

Total Dom. Consumption

2,4252,3792,3742,5682,5572,441 Argentina 2,355

699709709738748754 Australia 699

7,8507,9297,9297,9257,8017,695 Brazil 7,495

1,0031,0281,0281,014988963 Canada 1,003

9,4298,8268,8267,8087,2366,873 China 9,365

7,7907,9397,9118,0717,8847,940 European Union 7,800

335361361527530448 Hong Kong 365

1,3361,3191,3191,2981,2541,193 Japan 1,311

840832844790755722 Korea, South 821

1,9051,9041,9061,9021,8681,833 Mexico 1,865

7910410482103100 New Zealand 79

13,48613,02113,02113,76913,37613,616 Others 13,486

47,17747,23347,21446,49245,10044,578 Total Foreign 46,644

12,38912,40712,40712,18212,05211,676 United States 12,335

59,56659,64059,62158,67457,15256,254 Total 58,979

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a

year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 5: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Imports

1517171900 Argentina 15

141515141515 Australia 14

404343465463 Brazil 45

210204204236229245 Canada 220

2,5002,1772,1771,369902761 China 2,600

310341341363329359 European Union 300

330356356521524442 Hong Kong 360

870853853840793698 Japan 845

550550563515468450 Korea, South 530

160189190194188181 Mexico 155

141414121312 New Zealand 14

2,3742,2152,2152,6062,5352,625 Others 2,374

7,3877,4077,4216,7356,0505,851 Total Foreign 7,472

1,3341,3871,3871,3601,3581,366 United States 1,378

8,7218,7948,8088,0957,4087,217 Total 8,850

none none

Total Exports

675763763501283209 Argentina 760

1,4001,7381,7381,5821,4161,412 Australia 1,400

2,5002,3142,3142,0211,8031,652 Brazil 2,550

590525525478444418 Canada 500

212121212227 China 15

320330330295314299 European Union 350

000000 Hong Kong 0

666543 Japan 6

101005 Korea, South 0

320315314272245227 Mexico 355

610623623602564560 New Zealand 610

2,7892,8672,8672,8953,1233,021 Others 2,789

9,2329,5079,5078,6728,2187,833 Total Foreign 9,335

1,4331,3731,3711,4331,2971,160 United States 1,322

10,66510,88010,87810,1059,5158,993 Total 10,657

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month

beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 6: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Cattle Stocks - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

53,68553,80553,80553,71553,51552,565 Argentina 53,685

23,69025,73425,73426,17624,97127,413 Australia 23,690

244,144238,158238,158232,350226,045219,180 Brazil 244,144

11,09411,44011,44011,56511,53511,610 Canada 11,094

91,38089,15389,15390,38888,34590,558 China 91,380

86,59487,45087,45088,81989,15289,152 European Union 86,694

3,8703,8353,8353,8423,8223,824 Japan 3,870

3,6193,5213,5213,4293,3813,337 Korea, South 3,619

16,90016,69916,69916,58416,49016,615 Mexico 16,900

10,27610,10710,10710,14610,15210,033 New Zealand 10,151

347,841339,861339,861347,051346,603346,486 Others 347,841

893,093887,248887,248884,065874,011870,773 Total Foreign 893,068

94,41394,80594,80594,29893,62591,888 United States 94,413

987,506982,053982,053978,363967,636962,661 Total 987,481

none none

Production (Calf Crop)

14,90014,78014,78014,65014,20014,000 Argentina 14,520

8,3008,7008,7009,1009,7006,600 Australia 8,300

51,50050,49050,49049,50048,73548,250 Brazil 51,500

4,2004,2514,2514,2924,3484,272 Canada 4,200

51,00050,75050,75046,70048,80048,890 China 51,000

28,50028,90028,90028,85029,55030,100 European Union 28,500

1,2351,2351,2351,2241,2011,194 Japan 1,235

1,025995995968932916 Korea, South 1,045

8,1057,9507,9007,7007,4857,100 Mexico 8,105

4,9705,1275,1504,8954,7285,060 New Zealand 4,920

84,13081,81081,81083,35083,13282,165 Others 84,130

257,865256,928256,901251,229252,811248,547 Total Foreign 257,455

35,80036,06036,06036,31335,75835,063 United States 35,800

293,665292,988292,961287,542288,569283,610 Total 293,255

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was

released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 7: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Cattle Trade - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Imports

000000 Argentina 0

000000 Australia 0

000003 Brazil 0

26027527520214132 Canada 250

100210210168121133 China 100

111000 European Union 1

20181814159 Japan 20

000000 Korea, South 0

282930243231 Mexico 20

000000 New Zealand 0

382114114368317367 Others 382

791987988776626575 Total Foreign 773

2,0652,0432,0431,8991,8071,708 United States 2,010

2,8563,0303,0312,6752,4332,283 Total 2,783

none none

Total Exports

000000 Argentina 0

9001,3441,3971,1518851,154 Australia 1,000

605535554785407293 Brazil 350

715725725631642766 Canada 660

151717191919 China 15

9901,0181,0161,0071,028997 European Union 990

000000 Japan 0

000000 Korea, South 0

1,3301,3811,3301,2781,2031,130 Mexico 1,350

204040172741 New Zealand 45

314295295500436374 Others 314

4,8895,3555,3745,3884,6474,774 Total Foreign 4,724

28530730524419369 United States 255

5,1745,6625,6795,6324,8404,843 Total 4,979

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was

released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 8: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Pork Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Production

4,1303,9753,9753,7633,7253,700 Brazil 4,030

2,0452,0202,0201,9551,9581,914 Canada 2,115

34,00042,55042,55054,04054,51854,255 China 36,000

24,15023,96023,93524,08223,66023,866 European Union 24,130

528080128126124 Hong Kong 59

1,2801,2791,2791,2841,2721,279 Japan 1,280

1,3501,3641,3641,3291,2801,266 Korea, South 1,370

1,4601,4081,4081,3211,2671,211 Mexico 1,460

1,4501,5851,5851,6011,5631,540 Philippines 1,350

11,23411,18411,18411,48611,06910,871 Others 11,234

81,15189,45289,427100,989100,438100,026 Total Foreign 83,028

13,17612,54312,54211,94311,61111,320 United States 12,950

94,327101,995101,969112,932112,049111,346 Total 95,978

none none

Total Dom. Consumption

3,1323,1163,1163,0432,9512,882 Brazil 2,982

940967967913873865 Canada 925

37,75044,86644,86655,29555,81256,086 China 40,300

20,26820,42720,40021,25820,90920,844 European Union 20,048

342411411539573533 Hong Kong 409

2,7642,7142,7142,7742,7292,625 Japan 2,764

1,9742,0112,0112,0011,9261,894 Korea, South 1,944

2,1452,1592,1532,1161,9831,913 Mexico 2,110

1,7291,8061,8061,8831,8011,732 Philippines 1,599

12,29012,32212,32212,59612,32211,965 Others 12,290

83,33490,87390,840102,418101,879101,339 Total Foreign 85,371

10,09410,06610,0649,7479,5419,476 United States 9,974

93,428100,939100,904112,165111,420110,815 Total 95,345

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 9: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Pork Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Imports

222222 Brazil 2

255242242228218211 Canada 250

3,8502,4512,4511,4571,5012,021 China 4,400

181616141312 European Union 18

290331331411447409 Hong Kong 350

1,4901,4931,4931,4801,4731,360 Japan 1,490

625694694753645615 Korea, South 600

950985975972885843 Mexico 950

280222222283239193 Philippines 250

1,4971,5361,5361,4681,5811,415 Others 1,497

9,2578,0007,9907,0687,0047,081 Total Foreign 9,807

370429428473506495 United States 386

9,6278,4298,4187,5417,5107,576 Total 10,193

none none

Total Exports

1,000861861722776820 Brazil 1,050

1,3751,2841,2841,2771,2901,266 Canada 1,450

100135135202207190 China 100

3,9003,5493,5512,8382,7643,034 European Union 4,100

000000 Hong Kong 0

433453 Japan 4

122122 Korea, South 1

265234230177169141 Mexico 300

111111 Philippines 1

441398398358328321 Others 441

7,0876,4686,4665,5805,5425,778 Total Foreign 7,447

3,3912,8672,8672,6662,5552,376 United States 3,412

10,4789,3359,3338,2468,0978,154 Total 10,859

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 10: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Swine Stocks - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Beginning Stocks

37,85038,42738,42738,82939,21539,422 Brazil 37,850

13,87513,96013,96014,17013,93513,630 Canada 13,875

310,410428,070428,070441,589442,092458,029 China 310,410

148,200148,167148,167150,257147,188148,716 European Union 147,830

9,0609,1569,1569,2809,3469,313 Japan 9,060

11,28011,33311,33311,27311,48710,187 Korea, South 11,280

11,05010,70010,70010,41010,22910,043 Mexico 11,050

33,83132,59132,59132,33731,74333,956 Others 33,831

575,556692,404692,404708,145705,235723,296 Total Foreign 575,186

78,65875,07075,07073,14571,34569,019 United States 79,048

654,214767,474767,474781,290776,580792,315 Total 654,234

none none

Production (Pig Crop)

44,25042,25042,25040,95440,23039,635 Brazil 43,940

28,20028,27228,27228,01729,02628,812 Canada 28,650

450,000440,000440,000687,500705,000672,500 China 497,000

268,000264,500265,000267,000267,250266,000 European Union 268,000

16,80016,74016,74016,69016,78516,900 Japan 16,800

19,20019,88919,88919,11818,19119,504 Korea, South 19,465

20,27519,65019,65018,65018,10017,700 Mexico 20,275

65,86065,03865,03863,36359,79262,119 Others 65,860

912,585896,339896,8391,141,2921,154,3741,123,170 Total Foreign 959,990

141,669140,191139,993132,568129,429125,907 United States 139,652

1,054,2541,036,5301,036,8321,273,8601,283,8031,249,077 Total 1,099,642

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 11: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Swine Trade - Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Imports

111110 Brazil 2

366333 Canada 3

254410138 China 25

333363 European Union 3

111111 Japan 1

111253 Korea, South 1

413838334220 Mexico 41

323737412021 Others 32

1079191949159 Total Foreign 108

5,0005,0965,1005,2505,5975,657 United States 4,916

5,1075,1875,1915,3445,6885,716 Total 5,024

none none

Total Exports

1199852 Brazil 5

5,0005,1165,1165,2635,6145,672 Canada 4,925

6009569561,5671,5661,551 China 600

350369369509339288 European Union 350

000000 Japan 0

000000 Korea, South 0

000070 Mexico 0

131616164139 Others 13

5,9746,4666,4667,3637,5727,552 Total Foreign 5,893

556060645948 United States 44

6,0296,5266,5267,4277,6317,600 Total 5,937

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 12: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Chicken Meat Production - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Production

282828272725 Angola 28

13,77513,69013,69013,35513,61213,523 Brazil 13,830

1,3451,3281,3301,3001,2361,236 Canada 1,315

15,50013,75013,75011,70011,60012,448 China 14,850

232424242425 Cuba 23

11,95012,46012,46012,26011,91211,560 European Union 12,300

245235235219201187 Iraq 245

1,7351,7351,7351,6851,6611,629 Japan 1,775

955942942915852899 Korea, South 955

3,6703,6003,6003,4853,4003,275 Mexico 3,685

1,5201,4501,4501,3801,3441,289 Philippines 1,500

740720730710600575 Saudi Arabia 730

1,5101,4551,4551,4071,3351,351 South Africa 1,510

2,9003,3003,3003,1702,9902,813 Thailand 2,900

24,10224,36924,36923,52322,99421,803 Others 24,102

79,99879,08679,09875,16073,78872,638 Total Foreign 79,748

20,51119,94119,94119,36118,93818,510 United States 20,278

100,50999,02799,03994,52192,72691,148 Total 100,026

none none

Total Dom. Consumption

253294294344294230 Angola 228

9,9039,8659,8659,6719,7689,637 Brazil 9,802

1,3901,3721,3771,3381,2731,292 Canada 1,365

15,85013,90213,90211,59511,47512,492 China 15,400

253311311304305258 Cuba 273

11,18011,63611,63611,53711,28110,994 European Union 11,550

720736736746645750 Iraq 720

2,8202,8012,8012,7612,6882,587 Japan 2,860

1,0701,0601,0601,040988990 Korea, South 1,070

4,5584,4704,4734,3014,1984,061 Mexico 4,554

1,8901,8161,8161,7011,6091,531 Philippines 1,850

1,2701,2871,2891,3091,2751,416 Saudi Arabia 1,170

1,8901,8891,8891,8771,7781,781 South Africa 1,895

2,0002,4692,4592,3542,2262,129 Thailand 2,010

26,14426,51726,51725,58025,11123,956 Others 26,144

81,19180,42580,42576,45874,91474,104 Total Foreign 80,891

17,29916,70216,70016,18515,82615,510 United States 17,017

98,49097,12797,12592,64390,74089,614 Total 97,908

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 July 2020Global Market Analysis

Page 13: Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade€¦ · economy and foodservice, demand growth during the first 5 months of the year exceeded expectations . As a result, forecasts

Chicken Meat Trade - Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Apr

2019

Jul

2020

Apr

2020

Jul

none none

Total Imports

225266266317267205 Angola 200

355333 Brazil 2

175172172170174189 Canada 175

725580580342311430 China 925

230287287280281233 Cuba 250

680724724704692763 European Union 600

475501501527444563 Iraq 475

1,0851,0761,0761,0741,056973 Japan 1,085

170178178163132128 Korea, South 160

895875880820804791 Mexico 875

370366366321266244 Philippines 350

575609601629711878 Saudi Arabia 475

430485485521508504 South Africa 435

222212 Thailand 2

3,6353,8073,8073,4803,4003,270 Others 3,635

9,6759,9339,9309,3539,0509,176 Total Foreign 9,644

626161645961 United States 62

9,7379,9949,9919,4179,1099,237 Total 9,706

none none

Total Exports

000000 Angola 0

3,8753,8303,8303,6873,8473,889 Brazil 4,030

125124124124134134 Canada 125

375428428447436386 China 375

000000 Cuba 0

1,4501,5481,5481,4271,3231,329 European Union 1,350

000000 Iraq 0

777776 Japan 7

55505033627 Korea, South 45

757465 Mexico 6

000012 Philippines 0

454242303637 Saudi Arabia 35

505151516574 South Africa 50

810871881826757690 Thailand 840

1,5931,6521,6521,4351,2881,122 Others 1,593

8,3928,6088,6208,0717,9067,701 Total Foreign 8,456

3,3163,2593,2613,2443,1373,086 United States 3,367

11,70811,86711,88111,31511,04310,787 Total 11,823

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.

Data Revisions in PSDs for Years Prior to 2018: No revisions were made.

Commodity/Attribute Years Countries Cattle

Production None Trade None

Beef Production None Trade None

Pork Production None Trade None

Chicken Meat Production None Trade None

Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of July 10, 2020 and assumes their continuation.

Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts. Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.

RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and vestigial feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus, entrails, and lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys may have been removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without need of further processing Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of poultry or other parts of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for cooking without need of further processing.

Notes to Readers

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Conversion Rates and HS Codes

HS Code Description Conversion Rate020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79

HS Code Description Conversion Rate020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30

Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.

PORK

BEEF AND VEAL

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view archived and future releases. Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is October 9, 2020.

Country/Commodities for January and July Releases Countries Beef Pork Chicken Meat Angola x Argentina x Australia x Brazil x x x Canada x x x China x x x Cuba x EU x x x Hong Kong x x Iraq x Japan x x x Mexico x x x New Zealand x Philippines x x Saudi Arabia x South Africa x South Korea x x x Thailand x United States x x x

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lindsay Kuberka (202) 690-0787 [email protected] Swine and Pork Jake Vuil lemin (202) 690-4476 [email protected] Cattle and Beef Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Chicken Meat

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 July 2020Global Market Analysis