lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Shocks and Adjustment for Selected Crops
The IMPACT 3 Model Team: Sherman Robinson, Daniel Mason D’Croz,
Shahnila Islam, Mark Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe
London, February, 2015
![Page 2: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
• Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand
for grains for feed • Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils• Half of growth in grain demand will be for
Livestock feed• Increased pressure on land and water
Drivers of Agricultural Growthand Food Security
![Page 3: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
• Supply drivers– Climate change– Water and land scarcity– Investment in infrastructure– Investment in agricultural
research– Policy
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
![Page 4: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
The IMPACT Global Simulation Model
• International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
• Global partial equilibrium model – Multimarket model– Water models– Crop models– Livestock model– Malnutrition model
![Page 5: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
What is new in IMPACT 3?
• Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year)– 58 agricultural commodities
• Prices and markets– Three markets: farm gate, national, international– Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities
• Land Allocation to crops• Activity-commodity value chain framework• New Water Models: hydrology, water basin management,
water stress on crops• Modularity of the IMPACT model “system”
![Page 6: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
IMPACT 3 Geography
159• Countries
154• Water Basins
320
• Food Production Units
![Page 7: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
IMPACT 3 Model System
![Page 8: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
IMPACT – A Suite of Linked Models
• Modularity: “a la carte”– Use only the modules you need– Modules can be run in “standalone” mode as separate
models (e.g., water models)• Linking Modules
– Model system is driven by core multimarket economic model (IMPACT 3)
– Standardize data transfer between modules• Information flows: dynamic interaction with core model
![Page 9: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Marketing Margin
Markets and Prices
Farm: Producer Price • Price at Farm/Factory Gate and market
Market: Consumer
Price
• Commodity prices consumers face
Port: World Price
Marketing Margin
Trade Regime
![Page 10: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
• Commodities can be globally traded or non-traded
• This option can be set exogenously– E.g. sugar beets
• Or endogenously through the followinginequality
Tradability in IMPACT 3
PC
Export Price
Import Price
𝑃𝐸=𝑃𝑊 × (1− 𝑡𝑒 )×(1−𝑀𝑀 𝑒) 𝑃𝑀=𝑃𝑊 × (1+𝑡𝑚 )×(1+𝑀𝑀𝑚)< <PE PM
![Page 11: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Water Models in IMPACT
• Global hydrological model (GHM) assesses water availability
• IMPACT Water Simulation Model (IWSM) optimizes water supply according to demands– Monthly time step– Domestic, industrial (linked to GDP/population)– Livestock– Environment– Irrigation
• Water stress model– Delivers crop yields to the IMPACT food module
11
![Page 12: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Land Allocation to Crops
• Land types: irrigated and rainfed land• Demand for land by crop is a function of
commodity price and shadow price of land• Total supplies of irrigated and rainfed land are
fixed in each region (FPU)• Shadow price of land varies to equate supply and
demand for land by type and region– Solution determines allocation of land to crops and
equilibrium shadow price
![Page 13: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Value Chains: Activity-Commodity
• Commodities are:– Produced (activities)– Traded (commodities)– Consumed– Can be endogenous
or exogenous• Maize has endogenous production and demand• Oilseeds have endogenous production and both
endogenous and exogenous demand (biofuels)• Fertilizers is an exogenous commodity with fixed price
![Page 14: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Example: Oilseed Activity-Commodity Value Chain
Activity• Soybean
Farm(jsoyb)
• Demands land, fertilizer, labor
Activity Output• Soybean
Commodity(csoyb)
Activity• Soybean
Processing (jsbol)
• Demands soybeans (csoyb) at market price
Processed Commodities• Soybean
Oil (csbol)• Soybean
Meal (csbml)
![Page 15: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Baseline Model Results
• Core drivers: population, GDP, land• Changes in technology• Climate change:
– Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change
– Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways
![Page 16: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Drivers – Population, GDP, and Land
![Page 17: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Sources of Technology Change
• Underlying Intrinsic Productivity Rates (IPRs)– Exogenous trends in yields
• Climate Change:– Water: Hydrology, water basin management, water
stress on crop yields– Temperature: Crop Models (DSSAT)
• Market Effects– Changes in prices affect farmer behavior and yields
(e.g. fertilizer use)
![Page 18: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Inflation-adjusted prices for corn, wheat and soybean (1912-2011)
![Page 19: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Climate Change - Base Suite
• NoCC – Historical climate• Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs), IPCC -
AR5, with one Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5– IPSL: – HADLEY:– MIROC:– GFDL:
![Page 20: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
What about climate change?
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014
Global annual average surface temperature
![Page 21: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
World Prices over time (NoCC, indexed to 2010)
Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
![Page 22: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
2050 World Prices under Climate Change (% difference from NoCC)
Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
![Page 23: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Global Yields over time (NoCC, indexed to 2010)
Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
![Page 24: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Historical climate change impacts on yields 1960-2013
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014
![Page 25: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
2050 Global yield under Climate Change (% diff from NoCC)
Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
![Page 26: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
2050 Wheat Yields: Climate Change Effects for Top 10 Wheat Producers
Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
![Page 28: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Production Shock Scenario Specification
Scenario Crop Region Shock
Multi-Crop Shock Wheat North America (NAM)Europe, Russia, Western Asia
20%20%
Maize North AmericaEurope, Russia, Western AsiaBrazil, Argentina
25%20%20%
Soybeans North AmericaBrazil, Argentina
12%10%
Maize Shock Maize USAChina
30%40%
Rice Shock Rice ChinaSouth Asia
25%10%
Wheat Shock Wheat Eastern AfricaWestern AsiaCentral AsiaNorth America
40%50%60%50%
![Page 29: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
World Prices (2005=1)
63% increase from ref
20% decrease from ref
34% increase from ref
8% decrease from ref
42% increase from ref
12% decrease from ref
33% increase from ref
6% decrease from ref6% increase from ref
2% decrease from ref
3% increase from ref
1% decrease from ref
![Page 30: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Changes in Production by Scenario
Regions Shocked
![Page 31: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Changes in Production by Scenario
![Page 32: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
Changes in Production by Scenario
![Page 33: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Changes in Production by Scenario
![Page 34: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
Changes in Trade by Scenario20
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
1620
1520
16
EAP EUR LAC MEN NAM SAS EAP EUR LAC MEN NAM SAS EAP EUR LAC MEN NAM SASMaize Wheat Soybean
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Multi-Crop Scenario Net Trade by Region (million mt)
Reference MultiCrop1 MultiCrop2
![Page 35: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Changes in Trade by Scenario
![Page 36: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
Changes in Trade by Scenario
![Page 37: Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062503/58f1226b1a28abf9218b45e9/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
Changes in Trade by Scenario