local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric

94
Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric Mercury Emissions Presentation at Mercury Rule Workgroup Meeting PA Department of Environmental Protection Harrisburg, PA, November 18, 2005 Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory 1315 East West Highway, R/ARL, Room 3316 Silver Spring, Maryland, 20910 [email protected] http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ss/transport/cohen.html

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Page 1: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Local and Regional Deposition Impactsof Atmospheric Mercury Emissions

Presentation atMercury Rule Workgroup Meeting

PA Department of Environmental ProtectionHarrisburg, PA, November 18, 2005

Dr. Mark CohenNOAA Air Resources Laboratory

1315 East West Highway, R/ARL, Room 3316

Silver Spring, Maryland, [email protected]

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ss/transport/cohen.html

Page 2: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

CLOUD DROPLET

cloud

PrimaryAnthropogenic

Emissions

Hg(II), ionic mercury, RGMElemental Mercury [Hg(0)]

Particulate Mercury [Hg(p)]

Re-emission of previously deposited anthropogenic

and natural mercury

Hg(II) reduced to Hg(0) by SO2 and sunlight

Hg(0) oxidized to dissolved Hg(II) species by O3, OH,

HOCl, OCl-

Adsorption/desorptionof Hg(II) to/from soot

Naturalemissions

Upper atmospherichalogen-mediatedheterogeneous oxidation?

Polar sunrise“mercury depletion events”

Br

Dry deposition

Wet deposition

Hg(p)

Vapor phase:

Hg(0) oxidized to RGM and Hg(p) by O3, H202, Cl2, OH, HCl

Atmospheric Mercury Fate Processes

2

Page 3: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

3

Page 4: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

4

Page 5: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Geographic Distribution of Largest Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Sources in the U.S. (1999) and Canada (2000)

5

Page 6: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

6

Page 7: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

7

Page 8: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

depo

sitio

n flu

x (u

g/m

2-yr

)

Hg(II) emit, 50 mHg(II) emit, 250 mHg(II) emit, 500 mHg(p) emit; 250 mHg(0) emit, 250 m

Source at Lat = 42.5, Long = -97.5; simulation for entire year 1996 using archived NGM meteorological data

Deposition flux within different distance ranges from a hypothetical 1 kg/day source

8

Page 9: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

9

Page 10: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0.1o x 0.1o

subgridfor near-field analysis

sourcelocation

10

Page 11: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

11

Page 12: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

12

Page 13: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

13

Page 14: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

14

Page 15: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

So where is RGM emitted?

15

Page 16: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

16

Page 17: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

17

Page 18: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Reactive Gaseous Mercury Emissions (based on USEPA 1999 NEI)

18

Page 19: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

19

Page 20: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100hy

poth

etic

al 1

kg/

day

sour

cede

posi

tion

flux

(ug/

m2-

yr) f

or

Hg(II) emitHg(p) emit

Hg(0) emit

Logarithmic

Why is emissions speciation information critical?

20NOTE: distance results averaged over all directions –Some directions will have higher fluxes, some will have lower

Page 21: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0

10

20

30

40

hypo

thet

ical

1 k

g/da

y so

urce

depo

sitio

n flu

x (u

g/m

2-yr

) for

Hg(II) emitHg(p) emit

Hg(0) emit

Linear

Why is emissions speciation information critical?

21

Page 22: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Why is emissions speciation information critical?

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0

10

20

30

40

hypo

thet

ical

1 k

g/da

y so

urce

depo

sitio

n flu

x (u

g/m

2-yr

) for

Hg(II) emitHg(p) emit

Hg(0) emit

Linear

Logarithmic

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 120 120 - 250distance range from source (km)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

hypo

thet

ical

1 k

g/da

y so

urce

depo

sitio

n flu

x (u

g/m

2-yr

) for

Hg(II) emitHg(p) emit

Hg(0) emit

22

Page 23: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Kansas City)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

Calculated from data used to produce Appendix A of USEPA (2005): Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) Technical Support Document: Methodology Used to Generate Deposition, Fish Tissue Methylmercury Concentrations, and Exposure for Determining Effectiveness of Utility Emissions Controls: Analysis of Mercury from Electricity Generating Units 23

Page 24: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: HYSPLIT (Nebraska)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Kansas City)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Tampa)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

for 1

kg/

day

sour

ceug

/m2-

year

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Phoenix)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Indianapolis)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

HYSPLIT 1996

ISC: 1990-1994

Different Time Periods and Locations, but Similar Results

24

Page 25: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000distance range from source (km)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

cum

ulat

ive

fract

ion

depo

site

d Hg(II) emit, 250 mHg(p) emit, 250 mHg(0) emit, 250 m

Source at Lat = 42.5, Long = -97.5; simulation for entire year 1996 using archived NGM meteorological data

Cumulative fraction deposited out to different distance ranges from a hypothetical sourceCumulative Fraction Deposited Out to Different Distance Ranges from a Hypothetical Source

The fraction deposited and the deposition flux are both important, but they have very different meanings…The fraction deposited nearby can be relatively “small”, But the area is also small, and the relative deposition flux can be very large…

25

Page 26: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

26

Page 27: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350day of year

0102030405060708090

100

ug/m

2-ye

ar if

dai

ly d

ep c

ontin

uted

at s

ame

rate

daily valueweekly average

Illustrative example of total deposition at a location~40 km "downwind" of a 1 kg/day RGM source

27

Page 28: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

28

Page 29: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

If significant reduction of RGM to Hg(0) is occuringin power-plant plumes, then it would have a big impact on local/regional deposition

No known chemical reaction is capable of causing significant reduction of RGM in plumes –

e.g. measured rates of SO2 reduction can’t explain some of the claimed reduction rates

Very hard to measureAircraftStatic Plume Dilution Chambers (SPDC)Ground-based measurements

29

Page 30: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

30

Page 31: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

31

Page 32: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

32

Page 33: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Most current state-of-the-science models – including the EPA CMAQ model used to generate analyses for the CAIR/CAMR rulemaking process – do not include processes that lead to significant reduction in plumes

Recent measurement results show less reduction

Significant uncertainties – e.g., mass balance errors comparable to measured effects…

Current status – inconclusive… but weight of evidence suggest that while some reduction may be occurring, it may be only a relatively small amount

How important is RGM reductionin power-plant plumes?

33

Page 34: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

34

Page 35: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

wet depmonitor

Challenges of using wet deposition data to assess local and regional deposition impacts…

Wind has to blow from source to monitoring site

It has to be raining at the monitoring site when this happens

It can’t have rained so much along the way thatthe mercury has all been deposited already

Weekly integrated samples (e.g, MDN) complicate interpretation -- as several different rain events (with different source-attributions) can contribute to one sample

MDN monitoring generally sited not to be impacted by local/regional sources

Can have high deposition because there is a lot of rain, or because there is a lot of mercury…

35

Page 36: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

monitor at ground

level

Need speciated data (Hg0, Hg(p), RGM)Relatively expensive and time-consumingStill have problem of having the plume hit the site, but can measure continuously… and the plume hit and rain doesn’t have to occur at the same time (as with wet dep monitors) …Results from ground-level monitors can be hard to interpret –

rapid dry deposition … large vertical gradients … measuring right where things are changing very rapidly … don’t want the whole analysis to depend on whether the sampler was at an elevation of 10 meters or 2 meters…fumigation… filtration by plant canopies

?

Challenges of using air concentration data to assess local and regional deposition impacts…

36

Page 37: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

monitor at ground

level

Observations of “depleted” RGM at ground-based stations downwind of power plants – sometimes thought to be evidence of RGM reduction to Hg0 -- might be strongly influenced by RGM dry deposition…

would be better to have a monitor far above the canopy…

monitor abovethe canopy

?37

Page 38: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Summer 2004 NOAA ARL Hg Measurement Sites

Cooperative Oxford Lab(38.678EN, 76.173EW)

Wye Research andEducation Center

(38.9131EN, 76.1525EW)

Baltimore, MD

Washington, DC

38

Page 39: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230Julian Day (2004)

0

50

100

150

200

250

conc

entra

tion

(pg/

m3) RGM

Measured Atmospheric Concentrations at Oxford MD, Summer 2004

Highestmeasured

RGM

39

Page 40: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Concentrations Measured at Oxford, MD

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

184 184.25 184.5 184.75 185 185.25 185.5

Julian Decimal Day

O3,

CO

/10

(ppb

v);R

GM

, FPM

(pg/

m3 )

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

SO2 (

ppbv

); G

EM (n

g/m

3 )

O3CO/10RGMFPMSO2GEM

40

Page 41: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

41

Page 42: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

42

Page 43: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Measurements tell you the “exact”answer (ignoring measurement

uncertainties for the moment) but it is usually very difficult to figure out

what that answer is telling you, e.g., regarding source-attribution for

measured quantities

43

Page 44: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1. Depends on amount emitted

What are the local and regional deposition impacts of atmospheric mercury emissions?

2. Very close in, depends on stack height

3. Depends on form of mercury emitted

4. Depends on distance & direction from source

5. Very Episodic

6. Depends on chemistry in plume

7. Measurement-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

8. Modeling-based evidence:

- examples- advantages - limitations

44

Page 45: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

CLOUD DROPLET

cloud

PrimaryAnthropogenic

Emissions

Hg(II), ionic mercury, RGMElemental Mercury [Hg(0)]

Particulate Mercury [Hg(p)]

Re-emission of previously deposited anthropogenic

and natural mercury

Hg(II) reduced to Hg(0) by SO2 and sunlight

Hg(0) oxidized to dissolved Hg(II) species by O3, OH,

HOCl, OCl-

Adsorption/desorptionof Hg(II) to/from soot

Naturalemissions

Upper atmospherichalogen-mediatedheterogeneous oxidation?

Polar sunrise“mercury depletion events”

Br

Dry deposition

Wet deposition

Hg(p)

Vapor phase:

Hg(0) oxidized to RGM and Hg(p) by O3, H202, Cl2, OH, HCl

Multi-media interface

Atmospheric Mercury Fate Processes

45

Page 46: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

So how good are current models, and how do they compare

with one another?

46

Page 47: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

Summary presentedby Mark Cohen,

NOAA Air Resources Laboratory,

Silver Spring, MD, USA

EMEP/TFMM Workshop on the Review of the MSC-E Modelson HMs and POPsOct 13-14, 2005Hotel Mir, Moscow Russia

47

Page 48: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

48

ParticipantsD. Syrakov …………………………….. Bulgaria….NIMHA. Dastoor, D. Davignon ……………… Canada...... MSC-CanJ. Christensen …………………………. Denmark…NERIG. Petersen, R. Ebinghaus …………...... Germany…GKSSJ. Pacyna ………………………………. Norway…..NILUJ. Munthe, I. Wängberg ……………….. Sweden….. IVLR. Bullock ………………………………USA………EPAM. Cohen, R. Artz, R. Draxler ………… USA………NOAAC. Seigneur, K. Lohman ………………..USA……... AER/EPRIA. Ryaboshapko, I. Ilyin, O.Travnikov…EMEP……MSC-E

Page 49: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

49

Intercomparison Conducted in 3 Stages

I. Comparison of chemical schemes for a cloud environment

II. Air Concentrations in Short Term Episodes

III. Long-Term Deposition and Source-Receptor Budgets

Page 50: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

50

Stage

Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, US NOAAHYSPLIT

MSC-E heavy metal hemispheric model, EMEP MSC-EMSCE-HM-Hem

Acid Deposition and Oxidants Model, GKSS Research Center, Germany ADOM

MSC-E heavy metal regional model, EMEP MSC-EMSCE-HM

Community Multi-Scale Air Quality model, US EPACMAQ

Eulerian Model for Air Pollution, Bulgarian Meteo-serviceEMAP

Chemistry of Atmos. Mercury model, Environmental Institute, SwedenCAM

Mercury Chemistry Model, Atmos. & Environmental Research, USA MCM

Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, National Environmental Institute DEHM

Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metal model, Environment CanadaGRAHM

IIIIII

Model Name and InstitutionModel Acronym

Participating Models

Page 51: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

51

Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Inventoryand Monitoring Sites for Phase II

(note: only showing largest emitting grid cells)

Mace Head, Ireland grassland shore Rorvik, Sweden

forested shore

Aspvreten, Sweden forested shore

Zingst, Germanysandy shore

Neuglobsow, Germany forested area

Page 52: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

52

Neuglobsow

Zingst

AspvretenRorvik

Mace Head

Page 53: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

53

Total Gaseous Mercury at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul 00.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Tota

l Gas

eous

Mer

cury

(ng/

m3)

MEASURED

NWNW

NW

N

N

S

SE

NW

Neuglobsow

Page 54: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

54

Total Gaseous Mercury (ng/m3) at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MEASURED

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MSCE

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 CMAQ

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 GRAHM

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 EMAP

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 DEHM

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 ADOM

26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 HYSPLIT

Page 55: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

55

Total Particulate Mercury (pg/m3) at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150MEASURED

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150CMAQ

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150GRAHM

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150EMAP

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150DEHM

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150ADOM

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150HYSPLIT

02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0

50

100

150MSCE

Page 56: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

56

MSCE Neuglobsow RGM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

CMAQ Neuglobsow RGM

010203040506070

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

ADOM Neuglobsow RGM

010203040506070

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

EMAP Neuglobsow RGM

0

5

10

15

20

25

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

GRAHM Neuglobsow RGM

0

35

70

105

140

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

HYSPLIT Neuglobsow RGM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

DEHM Neuglobsow RGM

0

6

12

18

24

30

pg/m

3

ObsCalc

Reactive Gaseous Mercury at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999

Page 57: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

57

Stage II Publications:2003 Ryaboshapko, A., Artz, R., Bullock, R., Christensen, J., Cohen, M.,

Dastoor, A., Davignon, D., Draxler, R., Ebinghaus, R., Ilyin, I., Munthe, J., Petersen, G., Syrakov, D. Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury. Stage II. Comparisons of Modeling Results with Observations Obtained During Short Term Measuring Campaigns.Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East, Moscow, Russia.

2005 Ryaboshapko, A., Bullock, R., Christensen, J., Cohen, M., Dastoor, A., Ilyin, I., Petersen, G., Syrakov, D., Artz, R., Davignon, D., Draxler, R., and Munthe, J. Intercomparison Study of Atmospheric Mercury Models. Phase II. Comparison of Models with Short-Term Measurements. Submitted to Atmospheric Environment.

Page 58: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

58

DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96

Monitoring Station

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

wet

Hg

depo

sitio

n (g

/km

2-m

onth

)

Obs

MSCE-HM

MSCE-HM-Hem

HYSPLIT

DEHM

EMAP

CMAQ

August 1999 Mercury Wet Deposition

Page 59: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

59

Stage III Publication:

2005 Ryaboshapko, A., Artz, R., Bullock, R., Christensen, J., Cohen, M., Draxler, R., Ilyin, I., Munthe, J., Pacyna, J., Petersen, G., Syrakov, D., Travnikov, O. Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury. Stage III. Comparison of Modelling Results with Long-Term Observations and Comparison of Calculated Items of Regional Balances. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East, Moscow, Russia.

Page 60: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

60

Conclusions: Uncertainties in Mercury Modeling

• Elemental Hg in air - factor of 1.2• Particulate Hg in air - factor of 1.5• Oxidized gaseous Hg in air - factor of 5• Total Hg in precipitation - factor of 1.5• Wet deposition - factor of 2.0• Dry deposition - factor of 2.5• Balances for countries - factor of 2

Page 61: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Models give you a lot of information about why a given concentration or

deposition occurs, and gives you information over broad areas, but due

to uncertainties – in emissions, meteorology, chemistry, and deposition

processes – current models cannot generally give you the exact answer…

61

Page 62: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Some CMAQ results, used in the development

of the CAMR rule, courtesy of

Russ Bullock, EPA

Page 63: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

63

Page 64: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

64

Page 65: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Possible underestimation of local and/or regional impacts in CMAQ-Hg modeling done in support of CAMR:

• 36 km grid too coarse to capture local impacts – they are artificially diluted

USEPA (2005). Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) Technical Support Document: Methodology Used to Generate Deposition, Fish Tissue Methylmercury Concentrations, and Exposure for Determining Effectiveness of Utility Emissions Controls: Analysis of Mercury from Electricity Generating Units, page 4

• inclusion of hydroperoxyl radical (HO2•) chemical reaction reducing RGM back to elemental mercury – most models no longer include this reaction since strong evidence exists that it does not occur in the atmosphere

Gardfeldt, K. and M. Jonnson (2003). Is bimolecular reduction of Hg(II)-complexes possible in aqueous systems of environmental importance? J. Phys. Chem. A, 107 (22): 4478-4482.

65

Page 66: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Possible overestimation of global impacts in CMAQ-Hg modeling done in support of CAMR:

• Strong influence of boundary conditions; appears that RGM may have been specified too high on the boundary; perhaps (?) due to an inconsistency in physics/chemistry between global model (GEOS-Chem) providing boundary conditions and that of CMAQ-Hg?

• Two reactions included in CMAQ oxidizing elemental Hg to RGM mayhave been significantly overestimated (O3 and OH)

Calvert, J., and S. Lindberg (2005). Mechanisms of mercury removal by O3 and OH in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Environment 39: 3355-3367.

66

Page 67: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Some HYSPLIT-Hg results, for impacts of U.S. and

Canadian anthropogenic sources on selected receptors

Page 68: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL

68

Page 69: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

69

Page 70: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Cohen, M., Artz, R., Draxler, R., Miller, P., Poissant, L., Niemi, D., Ratte, D., Deslauriers, M., Duval, R., Laurin, R., Slotnick, J., Nettesheim, T., McDonald, J.“Modeling the Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of Mercury to the Great Lakes.” Environmental Research95(3), 247-265, 2004.

Note: Volume 95(3) is a Special Issue: "An Ecosystem Approach toHealth Effects of Mercury in the St. Lawrence Great Lakes", edited by David O. Carpenter.

70

Page 71: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

71

Page 72: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Top 25 Contributors to 1999 Hg Deposition Directly to Lake Ontario

American Ref-Fuel (Niagara) Homer City

KeystoneNiagara Falls Incin.NANTICOKE TGS

Phoenix ServicesKMS Peel Incin.Niagara MohawkC. R. Huntley Shawville Montour Dunkirk Eastlake Mt. Storm

Toronto Sewage Sludge Incin.Bruce MansfieldMedusa CementConesville CardinalUniv. of RochesterW. H. SammisJohn E AmosJERRITT CANYONDOFASCO (Hamilton)Lubrizol Corp.

NY PA

PA NY CAN

MD CAN

NY NY PA PA NY OH WV CAN PA PA OH OH NY OH WV NV CAN OH

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgicalmanufacturing/other

72

PA coal-fired power plants are important regional contributors

Page 73: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Top 25 Contributors to 1999 Hg Deposition to Acadia National Park

Phoenix Services Homer City Keystone

JERRITT CANYON Montour ShawvilleHarrisburg Incin. Mt. Storm BMWNCJohn E AmosPittsfield Incin. Roxboro EddystoneEssex County Incin.Chevron ChemicalWestinghouse Savannah Riv.Brandon ShoresBrayton PointSEMASS Incin.

Springfield Incin. (Agawan) LWDChalk PointConesvilleBrunner IslandPIPELINE MINING OPERATION

MD PA

PA NV PA PA PA WV NC WV MA NC PA NJ PA SC MD MA MA MA KY MD OH PA NV

0% 20% 40% 60%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgical

73

PA coal-fired power plants are important regional contributors

Page 74: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

The HYSPLIT modeling results presented here have only considered the impacts from anthropogenic sources in the United States and Canada

the model is currently being extended to a global domain… but results are not yet available

However, even if every source in the world was modeled, it is highly likely that these local and regional sources would still be the top contributing sources to local/regional receptors…

It is unlikely that a coal-fired power plant in China, for example, could contribute as much to one of these receptors as a comparable facility in the U.S.

74

Page 75: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Concluding Observations

Local and regional impacts depend on a number of factors (e.g., relative proportions of the different forms emitted)

Coal-fired power plants emit large amounts of mercury

Challenges in using monitoring approaches to assess impacts• local/regional impacts are highly episodic and spatially variable• measurements to date can’t unambiguously assess such impacts• definitive field experiments have not yet been carried out

Challenges in using modeling analyses to assess impacts• significant uncertainties in emissions, meteorology, and fate processes• adequate data for model evaluation and improvement not yet available

However, limited model evaluations are encouraging and suggest that models are generating reasonable results

Modeling tends to show significant local/regional impacts

75Emissions trading will result in winners and losers…

Page 76: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Thanks!

Page 77: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Extra Slides

Page 78: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0.1o x 0.1o

subgridfor near-field analysis

sourcelocation

78

Page 79: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: HYSPLIT (Nebraska)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

79

Page 80: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Tampa)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

Calculated from data used to produce Appendix A of USEPA (2005): Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) Technical Support Document: Methodology Used to Generate Deposition, Fish Tissue Methylmercury Concentrations, and Exposure for Determining Effectiveness of Utility Emissions Controls: Analysis of Mercury from Electricity Generating Units 80

Page 81: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Phoenix)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

Calculated from data used to produce Appendix A of USEPA (2005): Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) Technical Support Document: Methodology Used to Generate Deposition, Fish Tissue Methylmercury Concentrations, and Exposure for Determining Effectiveness of Utility Emissions Controls: Analysis of Mercury from Electricity Generating Units 81

Page 82: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000fo

r 1 k

g/da

y so

urce

ug/m

2-ye

ar

Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m

Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Indianapolis)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights

Calculated from data used to produce Appendix A of USEPA (2005): Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) Technical Support Document: Methodology Used to Generate Deposition, Fish Tissue Methylmercury Concentrations, and Exposure for Determining Effectiveness of Utility Emissions Controls: Analysis of Mercury from Electricity Generating Units 82

Page 83: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000distance range from source (km)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

cum

ulat

ive

fract

ion

depo

site

d Hg(II) emit, 50 mHg(II) emit, 250 mHg(II) emit, 500 m

Source at Lat = 42.5, Long = -97.5; simulation for entire year 1996 using archived NGM meteorological data

Cumulative fraction deposited out to different distance ranges from a hypothetical source

ionic Hg emitted from different source heights

Cumulative Fraction Deposited Out to Different Distance Ranges from a Hypothetical Source

83

Page 84: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

184 184.25 184.5 184.75 185 185.25 185.5Julian Day (2004)

0

50

100

150

200

250

conc

entra

tion

(pg/

m3) RGM

Measured Atmospheric Concentrations at Oxford MD, Summer 2004

84

Page 85: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

85

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

85

Phase III Sampling Locations

Page 86: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury

BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry

Conclu-sions

Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction

86

DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96

Monitoring Station

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

Hg

dry

depo

sitio

n (g

/km

2-m

onth

)

model avg

MSCE-HM

MSCE-HEM

HYSPLIT

DEHM

EMAP

CMAQ

August 1999 Mercury Dry Deposition

Page 87: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49

week of 1996

0.01

0.1

1

10

cum

ulat

ive

wet

dep

ositi

on (u

g/m

2)

measured

modeled

Comparison of Modeled vs. Measured Cumulative Wet Depositionat Underhill Center, VT during 1996

05-Feb-96 05-Apr-96 04-Jun-96 03-Aug-96 02-Oct-96 01-Dec-96 30-Jan-970

500

1000

1500

2000cu

mul

ativ

e H

g w

et d

epos

ition

(ng/

m2)

St. Anicet modeledSt. Anicet measured

Sites with 1996 mercury wet deposition data in the Great Lakes region

Seem to be getting reasonable results near Lake Ontario, but need to do much more evaluation…

Page 88: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

municipal waste incin --medical waste incin --

hazardous waste incin --industrial waste incin --

other waste incin --

chloralkali --other chemical manuf --

pulp/paper --cement/concrete --

mining --metallurgical processes --lamp manuf & breakage --

other manufacturing --other --

other fuel combustion --natural gas combustion --

mobile sources --oil combustion (non-mobile) --coal combustion (comm/ind) --

coal-fired elec gen not IPM --

coal-fired elec gen IPM --

0 1 2 3 4Total Atmos. Dep Flux to Lake Ontario (g Hg/km2-year)

USACanada

88

Page 89: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Fraction of total Modeled depositionContributed by aParticular source

89

Lake Ontario closeup

Page 90: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

90

Page 91: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

municipal waste incin --medical waste incin --

hazardous waste incin --industrial waste incin --

other waste incin --

chloralkali --other chemical manuf --

pulp/paper --cement/concrete --

mining --metallurgical processes --lamp manuf & breakage --

other manufacturing --other --

other fuel combustion --natural gas combustion --

mobile sources --oil combustion (non-mobile) --coal combustion (comm/ind) --

coal-fired elec gen not IPM --

coal-fired elec gen IPM --

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Total Atmos. Dep Flux to Lake Erie (g Hg/km2-year)

USACanada

91

Page 92: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Top 25 Contributors to 1999 Hg Deposition Directly to Lake Erie

Eastlake Lubrizol

Avon Lake Monroe

Keystone Homer City

Conesville NanticokeAshta ChemicalsSafety-KleenJohn E AmosMedusa CementWayne Cnty Incin.W. H. Sammis

American Ref-Fuel (Niagara) CardinalBruce MansfieldNiagara MohawkAshtabula LambtonPhilip Sporn MitchellKyger CreekClarian HealthBall Memorial

OH OH

OH MI

PA PA

OH CAN

OH CAN

WV PA MI OH NY OH PA NY OH CAN WV WV OH IN IN

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgicalmanufacturing/other

92

Page 93: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Top 25 Contributors to 1999 Hg Deposition Directly to Lake Champlain

Phoenix Services Montour

Homer City Keystone

Pittsfield Incin.steel industry (Montreal region) ShawvilleHarrisburg Incin.JERRITT CANYONMontreal Incin. Mt. StormAdirondack Incin.Brunner IslandJohn E Amos

Amer. Ref-Fuel (Niagara)SES Claremont Incin.Brandon ShoresBruce MansfieldChevron Chemical Conesville CardinalMedusa Cement Eastlake Eddystone LWD

MD PA

PA PA

MA CAN

PA PA NV CAN

WV NY PA WV NY NH MD PA PA OH OH PA OH PA KY

0% 20% 40% 60%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgical

93

Page 94: Local and Regional Deposition Impacts of Atmospheric

Top 25 Contributors to 1999 Hg Deposition Directly to the Chesapeake Bay

Phoenix ServicesBrandon Shores

Stericycle Inc. Morgantown

Chalk PointNASA Incinerator

H.A. WagnerNorfolk Navy Yard

Hampton/NASA Incin.Chesapeake Energy Ctr.Chesterfield Yorktown

INDIAN RIVER Roxboro

BALTIMORE RESCO Mt. Storm Homer City Keystone BMWNC

Possum Point Montour

Phoenix ServicesBelews CreekHarrisburg Incin.Harford Co. Incin.

MD MD

MD MD

MD VA MD VA VA VA VA VA DE NC MD WV PA PA NC VA PA MD NC PA MD

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Cumulative Fraction of Hg Deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25R

ank

coal-fired elec genother fuel combustionwaste incinerationmetallurgicalmanufacturing/other

94