local housing market assessments - gweddill.gov.wales fileminister update may 2013 “i have...
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Local Housing Market Assessments A Local Authority Perspective
Adam Provoost, Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC
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Statutory Duty
All Local Authorities have a requirement to consider the housing accommodation needs of their localities under Section 8 of the Housing Act 1985
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2006 Guidance and Consultants?
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New Guidance and Training 2012-13
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Minister Update May 2013
“I have concluded that improving Local Housing Market Assessments is a priority…
from 1st April 2014 I will require Local Authorities to maintain and ensure that Local Housing Market Assessments are updated within a two year period…
You will need to ensure that sufficient resources are made available to produce a robust Local Housing Market Assessment”
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Purpose of Today
• What data is available
• What data is required at different geographies
• Where are the data gaps
• The process and working with other local organisations
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The Calculation AND the Assessment
Housing Need
Wh
ole
Ho
usi
ng
Mar
ket
Analysis
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The Calculation AND the Assessment
Newly Arising Need for Intermediate Products
Newly Arising Need for Social Rent
Backlog (Waiting Lists)
Supply (New + Turnover)
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New Households
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Household Projections
2006 / 2008 Based
2011 / 2014 Based
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Household Projections
5 Variants
High
Principal
Low
Ten Year Migration
Zero Migration
POPGROUP
HOUSEGROUP
Software
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Decomposition of Change
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Decomposition of Change
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Land Registry Price Paid Data
• Freely Available Since March 2012
• Address Level Data
• Actual Price Paid, not Skewed by Valuations
Address/ Postcode
Date of Transfer
Price Property Type
New Build?
Freehold/ Leasehold
• Few Drawbacks; LCHO Sales and Bedrooms...
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Land Registry Data: Lookup or Geocode
1.
2.
3.
House Price Statistics for Small Areas (HPSSAs)
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Land Registry Data: Supplemental Data
LLPG & Turnover
Help to Buy Wales
Empty Homes
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Private Rental Data
• Rent Officers Wales Data
- Aim to collect 15-20% sample across BRMAs
- BRMAs Not Representative of Local Housing Markets
- Data Unavailable at Smaller Geographies
- Reliant on Good Will – Sample Quality / Distribution?
- Advertised Rents VS Achieved Rents – Rent Inflation?
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Private Rental Data: Alternatives
• Commercial Data Products
- Hometrack: Advertised Rents from Property Portals
& Assessed Rents for Buy-to-Let Mortgages
• Primary Research
- Survey of Estate and Letting Agents
- Survey of Landlords Working with the Council
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Private Rents: Gaps in Data
• Need Data at Smaller Geographies (Ward, MSOA)
• Balance Existing and Advertised Rents; Rent Inflation
• Needs to be Evenly Distributed & Reflective of Markets
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Household Income
- ASHE Data; Individual Earnings Only
- ONS Household Income 2014 based (MSOA)
- Gross and Net, Before and After Housing Costs
- Limitations: Timescales, Averages and Distribution
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Household Income: Commercial Data
• Household Income Distribution
• Range of Geographies
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Existing Households Falling into Need
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Mortgage and Landlord Possession Statistics
• Ministry of Justice Data
• Available at Court or Local Authority Level
• Claims / Orders / Warrants / Repossessions
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Homelessness Data
• Households found to be threatened with homelessness during the year (Section 66)
• Households found to be eligible, homeless subject to duty to help to secure during the year (Section 73)
• Households found to be eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need during the year (Section 75)
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Homelessness Data
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Backlog (Waiting Lists)
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Housing Registers
- Property Types Selected / Bedrooms Needed
- Age Breakdown
- Household Income Data
- Current Area and First Choice Area
- Area Analysis
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Housing Registers: Areas of Choice
116
54
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Housing Registers: Areas of Choice
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Supply
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Supply
- Units Due to Come Forward Over Next Five Years
- New Build
- Empty Properties Brought Back into Use
- Turnover Within the Affordable Housing Stock
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Other Context
- Ethnicity
- Growth or Decline in Households
- Car Availability by Tenure and Area
- Distance Travelled to Work
- Occupancy Rating by Tenure
- Household Information
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Primary Research
- Survey of Empty Property Owners
- Focus Groups with Older People
- Survey of New Build Housing Residents
- Discussions at Forums: Landlord, Developer, RSL
All adds context to the figures...
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A Never Ending Path!
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Summary
• Significantly Reduced Reliance on Consultants
• Decomposition of Change; Household Projections
• Price Paid Great, Missing Number of Bedrooms
• Median Household Income Distribution at Ward/MSOA
• More Robust Private Rents Needed at Ward/MSOA