loss of future financing flexibility - new york...
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Lossoffuturefinancingflexibility
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ Whenafirmborrowsuptoitscapacity,itlosestheflexibilityoffinancingfutureprojectswithdebt.
¨ Thus,ifthefirmisfacedwithanunexpectedinvestmentopportunityorabusinessshortfall,itwillnotbeabletodrawondebtcapacity,ifithasalreaduseditup.
¨ Proposition5:Otherthingsremainingequal,themoreuncertainafirmisaboutitsfuturefinancingrequirementsandprojects,thelessdebtthefirmwilluseforfinancingcurrentprojects.
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Whatmanagersconsiderimportantindecidingonhowmuchdebttocarry...
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ AsurveyofChiefFinancialOfficersoflargeU.S.companiesprovidedthefollowingranking(frommostimportanttoleastimportant)forthefactorsthattheyconsideredimportantinthefinancingdecisionsFactor Ranking(0-5)1.Maintainfinancialflexibility 4.552.Ensurelong-termsurvival 4.553.MaintainPredictableSourceofFunds 4.054.MaximizeStockPrice 3.995.Maintainfinancialindependence 3.886.Maintainhighdebtrating 3.567.Maintaincomparabilitywithpeergroup 2.47
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Debt:Summarizingthetradeoff
Aswath Damodaran
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TheTradeoffforDisney,Vale,TataMotorsandBaidu
Aswath Damodaran
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Debt trade off Discussion of relative benefits/costs Tax benefits Marginal tax rates of 40% in US (Disney & Bookscape), 32.5% in India (Tata
Motors), 25% in China (Baidu) and 34% in Brazil (Vale), but there is an offsetting tax benefit for equity in Brazil (interest on equity capital is deductible).
Added Discipline
The benefits should be highest at Disney, where there is a clear separation of ownership and management and smaller at the remaining firms.
Expected Bankruptcy Costs
Volatility in earnings: Higher at Baidu (young firm in technology), Tata Motors (cyclicality) and Vale (commodity prices) and lower at Disney (diversified across entertainment companies). Indirect bankruptcy costs likely to be highest at Tata Motors, since it’s products (automobiles) have long lives and require service and lower at Disney and Baidu.
Agency Costs Highest at Baidu, largely because it’s assets are intangible and it sells services and lowest at Vale (where investments are in mines, highly visible and easily monitored) and Tata Motors (tangible assets, family group backing). At Disney, the agency costs will vary across its business, higher in the movie and broadcasting businesses and lower at theme parks.
Flexibility needs
Baidu will value flexibility more than the other firms, because technology is a shifting and unpredictable business, where future investment needs are difficult to forecast. The flexibility needs should be lower at Disney and Tata Motors, since they are mature companies with well-established investment needs. At Vale, the need for investment funds may vary with commodity prices, since the firm grows by acquiring both reserves and smaller companies. At Bookscape, the difficulty of accessing external capital will make flexibility more necessary.
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6 ApplicationTest:Wouldyouexpectyourfirmtogainorlosefromusingalotofdebt?
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ Considering,foryourfirm,¤ Thepotentialtaxbenefitsofborrowing¤ Thebenefitsofusingdebtasadisciplinarymechanism¤ Thepotentialforexpectedbankruptcycosts¤ Thepotentialforagencycosts¤ Theneedforfinancialflexibility
¨ Wouldyouexpectyourfirmtohaveahighdebtratiooralowdebtratio?
¨ Doesthefirm’scurrentdebtratiomeetyourexpectations?
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AHypotheticalScenario
Aswath Damodaran
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Assumethatyouliveinaworldwhere(a)Therearenotaxes(b)Managershavestockholderinterestsatheartanddowhat’sbestforstockholders.(c)Nofirmevergoesbankrupt(d)Equityinvestorsarehonestwithlenders;thereisnosubterfugeorattempttofindloopholesinloanagreements.(e)Firmsknowtheirfuturefinancingneedswithcertainty
¨Whathappenstothetradeoffbetweendebtandequity?Howmuchshouldafirmborrow?
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TheMiller-ModiglianiTheorem
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ Inanenvironment,wheretherearenotaxes,defaultriskoragencycosts,capitalstructureisirrelevant.
¨ IftheMillerModiglianitheoremholds:¤ Afirm'svaluewillbedeterminedthequalityofitsinvestmentsandnot
byitsfinancingmix.¤ Thecostofcapitalofthefirmwillnotchangewithleverage.Asafirm
increasesitsleverage,thecostofequitywillincreasejustenoughtooffsetanygainstotheleverage.
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Whatdofirmslookatinfinancing?
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ Therearesomewhoarguethatfirmsfollowafinancinghierarchy,withretainedearningsbeingthemostpreferredchoiceforfinancing,followedbydebtandthatnewequityistheleastpreferredchoice.Inparticular,¤ Managersvalueflexibility.Managersvaluebeingabletousecapital(onnewinvestmentsorassets)withoutrestrictionsonthatuseorhavingtoexplainitsusetoothers.
¤ Managersvaluecontrol.Managerslikebeingabletomaintaincontroloftheirbusinesses.
¨ Withflexibilityandcontrolbeingkeyfactors:¤ Wouldyouratheruseinternalfinancing(retainedearnings)orexternalfinancing?
¤ Withexternalfinancing,wouldyouratherusedebtorequity?
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Preferencerankingslong-termfinance:Resultsofasurvey
Aswath Damodaran
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Ranking Source Score
1 Retained Earnings 5.61
2 Straight Debt 4.88
3 Convertible Debt 3.02
4 External Common Equity 2.42
5 Straight Preferred Stock 2.22
6 Convertible Preferred 1.72
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Andtheunsurprisingconsequences..
Aswath Damodaran
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0%
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% o
f Fin
ancin
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Year
External and Internal Financing at US Firms
External Financing from Debt
External Financing from Common and Preferred Stock
Internal Financing
In
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FinancingChoices
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ YouarereadingtheWallStreetJournalandnoticeatombstoneadforacompany,offeringtosellconvertiblepreferredstock.Whatwouldyouhypothesizeaboutthehealthofthecompanyissuingthesesecurities?
a. Nothingb. Healthierthantheaveragefirmc. Inmuchmorefinancialtroublethantheaverage
firm
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CAPITALSTRUCTURE:FINDINGTHERIGHTFINANCINGMIX
Youcanhavetoomuchdebt…ortoolittle..
Aswath Damodaran 33
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TheBigPicture..
Aswath Damodaran
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PathwaystotheOptimal
Aswath Damodaran
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1. TheCostofCapitalApproach:Theoptimaldebtratioistheonethatminimizesthecostofcapitalforafirm.
2. TheEnhancedCostofCapitalapproach:Theoptimaldebtratioistheonethatgeneratesthebestcombinationof(low)costofcapitaland(high)operatingincome.
3. TheAdjustedPresentValueApproach:Theoptimaldebtratioistheonethatmaximizestheoverallvalueofthefirm.
4. TheSectorApproach:Theoptimaldebtratioistheonethatbringsthefirmclosestoitspeergroupintermsoffinancingmix.
5. TheLifeCycleApproach:Theoptimaldebtratioistheonethatbestsuitswherethefirmisinitslifecycle.
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I.TheCostofCapitalApproach
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ ValueofaFirm=PresentValueofCashFlowstotheFirm,discountedbackatthecostofcapital.
¨ Ifthecashflowstothefirmareheldconstant,andthecostofcapitalisminimized,thevalueofthefirmwillbemaximized.
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MeasuringCostofCapital
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ Recappingourdiscussionofcostofcapital:¨ Thecostofdebtisthemarketinterestratethatthefirmhastopayonits
longtermborrowingtoday,netoftaxbenefits.Itwillbeafunctionof:(a)Thelong-termriskfreerate(b)Thedefaultspreadforthecompany,reflectingitscreditrisk(c)Thefirm’smarginaltaxrate
¨ Thecostofequityreflectstheexpectedreturndemandedbymarginalequityinvestors.Iftheyarediversified,onlytheportionoftheequityriskthatcannotbediversifiedaway(betaorbetas)willbepricedintothecostofequity.
¨ Thecostofcapitalisthecostofeachcomponentweightedbyitsrelativemarketvalue.Costofcapital=Costofequity(E/(D+E))+After-taxcostofdebt(D/(D+E))
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CostsofDebt&Equity
Aswath Damodaran
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¨ AnarticleinanAsianbusinessmagazinearguedthatequitywascheaperthandebt,becausedividendyieldsaremuchlowerthaninterestratesondebt.Doyouagreewiththisstatement?
a. Yesb. No¨ Canequityeverbecheaperthandebt?a. Yesb. No
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ApplyingCostofCapitalApproach:TheTextbookExample
Aswath Damodaran
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Assume the firm has $200 million in cash flows, expected to grow 3% a year forever.
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TheU-shapedCostofCapitalGraph…
Aswath Damodaran
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CurrentCostofCapital:Disney
¨ ThebetaforDisney’sstockinNovember2013was1.0013.TheT.bondrateatthattimewas2.75%.Usinganestimatedequityriskpremiumof5.76%,weestimatedthecostofequityforDisneytobe8.52%:CostofEquity=2.75%+1.0013(5.76%)=8.52%
¨ Disney’sbondratinginMay2009wasA,andbasedonthisrating,theestimatedpretaxcostofdebtforDisneyis3.75%.Usingamarginaltaxrateof36.1,theafter-taxcostofdebtforDisneyis2.40%.After-TaxCostofDebt =3.75%(1– 0.361)=2.40%
¨ Thecostofcapitalwascalculatedusingthesecostsandtheweightsbasedonmarketvaluesofequity(121,878)anddebt(15.961):Costofcapital=
Aswath Damodaran
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MechanicsofCostofCapitalEstimation
Aswath Damodaran
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1.EstimatetheCostofEquityatdifferentlevelsofdebt:¤ Equitywillbecomeriskier->Betawillincrease->CostofEquitywillincrease.
¤ Estimationwilluseleveredbetacalculation2.EstimatetheCostofDebtatdifferentlevelsofdebt:
¤ Defaultriskwillgoupandbondratingswillgodownasdebtgoesup->CostofDebtwillincrease.
¤ Toestimatingbondratings,wewillusetheinterestcoverageratio(EBIT/Interestexpense)
3.EstimatetheCostofCapitalatdifferentlevelsofdebt4.CalculatetheeffectonFirmValueandStockPrice.
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Layingthegroundwork:1.Estimatetheunleveredbetaforthefirm¨ TheRegressionBeta:Oneapproachistousetheregressionbeta(1.25)
andthenunlever,usingtheaveragedebttoequityratio(19.44%)duringtheperiodoftheregressiontoarriveatanunleveredbeta.
Unleveredbeta==1.25/(1+(1- 0.361)(0.1944))=1.1119¨ TheBottomupBeta:Alternatively,wecanbacktothesourceand
estimateitfromthebetasofthebusinesses.
Aswath Damodaran
Business Revenues EV/SalesValueofBusiness
ProportionofDisney
Unleveredbeta Value Proportion
MediaNetworks $20,356 3.27 $66,580 49.27% 1.03 $66,579.81 49.27%Parks&Resorts $14,087 3.24 $45,683 33.81% 0.70 $45,682.80 33.81%StudioEntertainment $5,979 3.05 $18,234 13.49% 1.10 $18,234.27 13.49%Consumer Products $3,555 0.83 $2,952 2.18% 0.68 $2,951.50 2.18%Interactive $1,064 1.58 $1,684 1.25% 1.22 $1,683.72 1.25%
DisneyOperations $45,041 $135,132 100.00% 0.9239 $135,132.11 100.00%
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2.GetDisney’scurrentfinancials…
Aswath Damodaran
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I.CostofEquity
Levered Beta = 0.9239 (1 + (1- .361) (D/E))Cost of equity = 2.75% + Levered beta * 5.76%
Aswath Damodaran
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EstimatingCostofDebt
Startwiththemarketvalueof thefirm==121,878+$15,961=$137,839millionD/(D+E) 0.00% 10.00% DebttocapitalD/E 0.00% 11.11% D/E=10/90=.1111$Debt $0 $13,784 10%of$137,839
EBITDA $12,517 $12,517 Sameas0%debtDepreciation $ 2,485 $ 2,485 Sameas0%debtEBIT $10,032 $10,032 Sameas0%debtInterest $0 $434 Pre-taxcostofdebt*$Debt
Pre-taxInt.cov ∞ 23.10 EBIT/InterestExpensesLikelyRating AAA AAA FromRatingstablePre-taxcostofdebt 3.15% 3.15% RisklessRate+Spread
Aswath Damodaran
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TheRatingsTable
T.Bond rate =2.75%
Aswath Damodaran
Interest coverage ratio is Rating is Spread is Interest rate> 8.50 Aaa/AAA 0.40% 3.15%
6.5 – 8.5 Aa2/AA 0.70% 3.45%5.5 – 6.5 A1/A+ 0.85% 3.60%4.25 – 5.5 A2/A 1.00% 3.75%3 – 4.25 A3/A- 1.30% 4.05%
2.5 -3 Baa2/BBB 2.00% 4.75%2.25 –2.5 Ba1/BB+ 3.00% 5.75%2 – 2.25 Ba2/BB 4.00% 6.75%1.75 -2 B1/B+ 5.50% 8.25%
1.5 – 1.75 B2/B 6.50% 9.25%1.25 -1.5 B3/B- 7.25% 10.00%0.8 -1.25 Caa/CCC 8.75% 11.50%
0.65 – 0.8 Ca2/CC 9.50% 12.25%0.2 – 0.65 C2/C 10.50% 13.25%
<0.2 D2/D 12.00% 14.75%
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ATest:Canyoudothe30%level?
Aswath Damodaran
Iteration 1
(Debt @AAA rate) Iteration 2
(Debt @AA rate) D/(D + E) 20.00% 30.00% 30.00% D/E 25.00% $ Debt $27,568 EBITDA $12,517 Depreciation $2,485 EBIT $10,032 Interest expense $868 Interest coverage ratio 11.55 Likely rating AAA Pretax cost of debt 3.15%
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BondRatings,CostofDebtandDebtRatios
Aswath Damodaran
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StatedversusEffectiveTaxRates
¨ Youneedtaxableincomeforinteresttoprovideataxsavings.NotethattheEBITatDisneyis$10,032million.Aslongasinterestexpensesarelessthan$10,032million,interestexpensesremainfullytax-deductibleandearnthe36.1%taxbenefit.Atan60%debtratio,theinterestexpensesare$9,511millionandthetaxbenefitistherefore36.1%ofthisamount.
¨ Ata70%debtratio,however,theinterestexpensesballoonto$11,096million,whichisgreaterthantheEBITof$10,032million.Weconsiderthetaxbenefitontheinterestexpensesuptothisamount:¤ MaximumTaxBenefit=EBIT*MarginalTaxRate=$10,032million*0.361
=$3,622million¤ AdjustedMarginalTaxRate=MaximumTaxBenefit/Interest Expenses =
$3,622/$11,096=32.64%
Aswath Damodaran
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Disney’scostofcapitalschedule…
Aswath Damodaran