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Draft submission for APPAM Conference (Unique ID: KOR319522)

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Low carbon transport policies in India: Future Scenarios and

comparison with the developed world

Prasoon Agarwal1

Abstract

Economic development and the rapidly increasing demand for mobility in developing countries are leading to increased demand for transport services. The sector is an important driver for determining future energy needs and emissions, being responsible for about 10% of total final energy demand and 8 % of CO2 emissions in India currently (IEA, 2007). However, the current trends seek caution with regard to environmental implications, so as to avoid locking into a carbon intensive future transport system. This paper assesses two paradigms for transiting to a low carbon transport system in India, using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Energy Snapshot tool (ESS) to model energy demand for India between 2000 and 2050. Future energy demand and GHG emissions are estimated under the two scenarios, and the total reduction potential from the transport sector as compared to the ‘Business as usual’ case has been presented. The model output presents the energy and environment benefits that can occur from such initiatives, under the Kaya Identity framework, for a detailed policy analysis. Also, to demonstrate the long term emission benefits of such low carbon initiatives, a project level case study of the Dedicated Freight Corridor between Delhi and Mumbai has been taken. Key Words: Climate Change, Sustainability, Transport

1 Doctoral Candidate at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad


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Table of Contents

1. Introduction 3

2. Methodology and model framework 5

3. Scenario Description 7

4. Model Results 9

4.1 Overall energy and emission projections (Base and LCS Scenarios) 9 4.2 Projections for transport sector (Base and LCS Scenarios) 14 4.3 Analysis of De-carbonization 17

5. Low carbon transitions: A case study on freight transport 20

6. Conclusion 23

7. Future Scope 24

8. References 26


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1. Introduction

Economic development and the rapidly increasing demand for mobility in

developing countries are leading to increased demand for transport services, so as

to support lifestyles and economic activities in developing countries like India.

The transport sector is responsible for about 10% of total final energy demand in

India, and is projected to increase at a rate of 6.1 % over the outlook period

(2005-2030), to reach 20% in 2030, under the business as usual scenario (IEA,

2007). The sector is an important driver for determining future energy needs,

especially dominating the growing demand for oil in India, with majority of the

vehicles being diesel driven. Also, the transport sector has serious implications on

emissions and energy security, being responsible for 8 % of India’s CO2

emissions currently (IEA, 2007). This is projected to increase to 13 % on 2030

under the business as usual scenario. Thus there is a need to check this trend and

address these issues in the medium to long term, so as to avoid locking into a

carbon intensive transport systems in India. Unlike the developed nations,

currently there are no mandatory vehicle fuel efficiency norms in India. Engines

of higher efficiency need to be developed and used for lowering demand for

transportation fuel. Besides, there is a need to shift to vehicles that run on

alternate fuels. Already battery operated two wheelers and cars have started

plying on Indian roads. However, with improvement in battery technology, which

has tremendous potential and can drastically improve the performance of vehicles,

the share of battery operated vehicles is bound to grow. Similarly, solar power

operated cars have also forayed in the market. Currently their share is very low,


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but with advancement in technology, they can capture a higher share. The

government is also analyzing possibilities for blending ethanol with petrol and

bio-diesel with diesel. With increasing percentage of blend, as envisaged for the

future, the emissions from transportation sector would be increasingly lower. As a

characteristic unique to the Indian transport system, in the absence of well

designed public transport facilities, two wheelers form a major portion of the

vehicle stock, so as to facilitate mobility in cities. This trend is supposed to

change, with a shift to cars, as the society becomes more economically affluent.

The number of vehicles on road is projected to rise rapidly, and match the United

States by 2025. Thus there is a need to check this trend and address these issues in

the medium to long term. This research conceptualizes transitioning the transport

system in India to a low carbon pathway, by a number of policy actions aimed at

passenger and freight transport sector. Some of them could be - improvement of

vehicle efficiency, and increased penetration of electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles,

bioethanol and biodiesel, investments in alternate transport modes, shift of

transport choice from private to public like trains for long distance travel; BRTS,

City buses, light rail, metro and car-pooling for local and short distance

commutation. It is envisaged that electric and hybrid vehicle will form a

significant share of the vehicle stock, especially for short distance inter and intra

city commutation. ICT and Intelligent transport systems will be used for effective

traffic management, so as to reduce congestion and unnecessary fuel wastage. For

freight transport sector, an impetus will be given to development of better

logistical linkages through infrastructure investments in dedicated freight


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corridors, so as to cause a shift from lesser efficient road transport to rail freight

transportation system.

Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios envisage reduction in global greenhouse gas

emissions to 50% by 2050 compared to the 2005, while meeting energy service

demands through proposing combinations of technological and social innovations

based on favorable socio-economic future visions (Strachan et. al., 2008). In this

paper we use a modeling framework to realize a Low Carbon Society through two

alternative pathways. The first pathway uses a pure carbon policy instrument in

the form of a carbon tax whereas in the second we combine sustainable polices

with a carbon tax. These two alternative development pathways for India were

conceptualized by Shukla et al. (2008) and follow different paradigms – one

following the conventional paradigm to reduce emissions through a carbon price

regime and the other focusing on emission stabilization with sustainable

development by aligning climate actions with development responses to

numerous development challenges typical in a developing economy. The current

paper presents a detailed analysis of major environment benefits arising out of

such a transition under the two scenarios. Besides, to demonstrate the long term

emission benefits of such low carbon transitions in the transport sector, a project

level case study of the Dedicated Freight Corridor between Delhi and Mumbai has

been taken.

2. Methodology and model framework


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(Shukla et. al., 2008)

DATABASES: Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKAL Model

AIM SNAPSHOT Model End

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic D

atabase

The current paper uses the integrated framework proposed by Shukla et. al.

(2008). The framework falls under the earlier AIM family of models (Kainuma et.

al., 2003; Shukla et. al., 2004), with the inclusion of a new model AIM

SNAPSHOT, which has a simple graphic interface. The framework (Figure 1)

proposed by Shukla et. al. (2008) uses the modelling resources developed over the

last few years by the AIM team with a widely used energy system model

ANSWER-MARKAL (Fishbone & Abilock, 1981) and finally combining it with

the SNAPSHOT Model.

Figure 1. Integrated Soft-linked Model Framework

Shukla et. al. (2008) have used the top down model, AIM CGE for estimating the

GDP under different scenarios and these are used as an exogenous input to the

bottom up ANSWER MARKAL model. The ANSWER MARKAL model

provides detailed technology and sector level energy and emission projections,

which along with other drivers, are in turn inputted to the AIM SNAPSHOT

model for a detailed sectoral energy, emission and factor analysis. The Energy


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SnapShot is a spreadsheet tool designed to calculate the energy balance table and

CO2 emission table with inputs such as service demands, share of energy and

energy improvements by classifications of service and energy in the base and

target year (NIES, 2006). The tool can be used for i) developing and designing

preliminary scenarios ii) doing “what if” analysis iii) checking the consistency

among the sectors iv) analyzing the impacts of countermeasures and v)

communicating with stakeholders. Models require diverse databases such as

economic growth, global and regional energy resource availability, sectoral and

temporal end use production processes and technologies, emission types and

much more. AIM database plays a critical role to ensure data consistency across

the models (Hibino et. al., 2003; Shukla et. al., 2004, Chapter 7).

3. Scenario Description

Three scenarios have been articulated to describe the future strategies relating to

the development of India’s road transport sector. The first scenario is the

‘Business as Usual’ scenario, used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the

impacts of current policy initiatives on the long-term trends of road transport

energy demand are assessed. Thus, this scenario assumes the future development

of transport sector in India along the conventional path, which essentially means a

carbon intensive transport system for India similar to the pathway followed by the

present developed countries. The assumptions about the key drivers are similar to

the base case in Shukla et. al. (2008).


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Besides, two alternative scenarios for ‘Low Carbon Transport’ are considered as

more optimal cases, and are modeled for the period until 2050. The scenarios use

the articulation by Shukla et. al. (2008), with a carbon tax (CT) scenario of a pure

carbon policy instrument in the form of a carbon tax, and a sustainability society

(SS) scenario which combines sustainable polices with a carbon tax. The CT

scenario assumes greater improvements in the energy intensity and higher target

for the share of commercial renewable energy compared to the Base Case

scenario. Also, a stringent carbon permit price trajectory is presumed in this

scenario, as compared to milder carbon regime assumed under the base case.

Besides this, the underlying structure of this scenario is identical to the Base Case

(Shukla et. al., 2008). However, a series of best available reduction technologies

and practices, measures such as increased focus on public transport, fuel economy

regulation, promoting gas and electric vehicles, biofuel promotion, technological

interventions and modifications in urban architecture are assumed to be

implemented. On the other hand, the SS scenario follows a distinct ‘sustainability’

rationale, like that of the IPCC SRES B1 global scenario (IPCC, 2000). The

scenario represents a very different approach to development as compared to the

Base Case, with a long-term perspective aiming to decouple the economic growth

from highly resource intensive and environmentally unsustainable path. The

‘sustainability’ scenario cannot be constructed by incremental changes in the Base

Case, because it requires many upfront decisions to be taken. The scenario

rationale rests on aligning the economic development policies, measures and

actions to gain multiple co-benefits, especially in developing countries where


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major decisions are yet to be taken. The scenario assumes the society to pro-

actively transition the transport system in India to a low carbon pathway, many

behavioral changes like shifting transport choice from private to public like trains

for long distance travel; BRTS, City buses, light rail, metro and car-pooling for

local and short distance commutation.

4. Model Results

As against the energy accounting framework used by different international

agencies like IEA, the results presented in this paper use a different approach.

This approach avoids many fallouts because in the other approach, contribution of

renewable like hydro, wind and solar to primary energy is only equivalent to the

electricity generated, whereas the contributions of others like fossil fuels and

biomass it is in terms of the calorific value of the fuel. This depresses the share of

hydro, wind and solar in primary energy mix and thus creates a distorted picture

of the final energy system. Besides, the alternative approach used by IEA also

provides undue advantage to biomass over other renewable in case of renewable

energy targets (Larsen et. al., 2007).

4.1 Overall energy and emission projections (Base and LCS Scenarios)

As per Shukla et. al. (2008), the demand for energy in India increases 5.8 times to

3016 Mtoe in 2050, whereas it was only 520 Mtoe in 2005. In the same duration,

GDP increases by 23.6 times, and thus as a result of changes in the structure of

economy and efficiency improvements, a decoupling of GDP and Energy takes

place (Figure 2). The base case emissions for India are projected to be 6.6 Billion


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0

1020

30

40

5060

70

80

90100

110

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ene

rgy

& C

arbo

n In

tens

ity (2

000

= 10

0)

Energy IntensityCO2 Intensity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 Emissions (Mt CO2)

Source: Shukla et al. (2008)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Source: Shukla et al. (2008)

Figure 2. Energy and Carbon Intensities for Base Scenario

tCO2 in 2050 (Shukla et. al., 2008), thus the carbon intensities are also reduced

substantially (Figure 2) due to an increase in the share of nuclear and gas in the

overall energy mix. The fuel mix in the base case remains highly dominant on

coal, but the share of natural gas, other renewable, nuclear and commercial

biomass increases significantly by 2050(Figure 3).

Figure 3. Fuel Mix in Base Case Scenario


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While conceptualizing a Carbon Tax (CT) Scenario, Shukla et. al. (2008) assume

a carbon tax trajectory which increases to US $ 100 per tCO2. The base case

scenario is corresponding to 650 ppmv CO2e stabilization whereas the CT

scenario is corresponding to 550 ppmv CO2e stabilization. The carbon tax

assumed lead to subsequent GDP losses, which were used to recalculate the end

use demands for the carbon tax scenario. The cumulative CO2 mitigation for the

period 2005-2050 comes out to be substantial, with major reduction in emissions

from the electricity sector, due to fuel switching initially, and CCS along with

Coal fired electricity generation, CCS in steel and cement making later. The

remaining mitigation happens due to higher adoption of renewable especially

biomass, and improvements in device efficiencies like better vehicle efficiency

norms.

While conceptualizing a Sustainable Society (SS) scenario, based on the

precautionary principle (Rao, 2000) paradigm, we assume that anthropogenic

influences as the root cause of GHG emissions, and hence the policy actions are

based on reducing these influences in in all walks of life (Shukla et. al., 2008).

However the reduction of anthropogenic influences is not at the expense of

economic and social development, but it believes in expanding the economic and

climate frontier (Shukla, 2005), by innovations in technology, institutions,

targeted technology, focusing on inputs (& not only outputs) and long-term

perspective to avoid lock-ins. The sustainable society can come up through a

number of policies, which eventually bring down the intermediate demand for

products, while assuming a GDP equivalent to the base case. The demand


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projections are done using sector specific drivers, which are changed keeping in

mind the sustainable society storylines. For example improvements in transport

sector planning will lead to an overall reduction in the demand for steel, as can be

understood in Table 1.

Table 1. Impact of Sustainable transport on steel and cement demand

Sector Driver Impact on steel demand Transport • Better Urban Planning

• Public Transport

• Substitution

Less automobile per unit of transport

service delivered

Thus the demand for steel would reduce as a result of such sustainable transport

policies, and this would lower the final demand of energy from steel sector.

The approach for analysis introduces different set of actions under different

scenarios, for lowering the use of energy across sectors in the economy. As can be

seen from Figure 4, there is a substantial reduction in primary energy

consumption, as compared to the CT scenario.

Figure 4. Primary Energy Consumption

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS NUC HYD REN


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However, this reduction in overall energy consumption is achieved through a set

of measures across sectors. There is a reduction in demand from industrial sector

as demand for steel, cement and other energy intensives commodities goes down

due to recycling, reuse, material substitutions, improvement of device efficiencies

and fuel substitutions. The demand of energy from agriculture is lower due to

reduced consumption on account of improved agricultural practices related to

irrigation and cropping patterns. Electricity demand which is a derived demand is

also lower. Similarly, the transport sector also demonstrates a reduction in

demand, due to the use of energy efficient vehicles and a greater modal shift in

favor of public The impact of these different set of policy actions can be better

understood in Figure 5 and 6 below, which demonstrate how the share of different

energy carries changes in the overall numbers of primary energy demand and

related emissions in the economy.

Figure 5. Primary Energy Consumption ( % shares)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS NUC HYD REN


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Figure 6. CO2 emissions by fuel ( % shares)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)

COL OIL GAS

For example, there is an increasing reliance on renewable sources like hydro,

wind and solar. Besides, cleaner fuels like natural gas and nuclear also find an

increased use. In spite of an increase in the share of coal in overall energy mix ,

there is a reduction in overall emissions under the SS scenario, because

technological options like CCS have been assumed to take up a greater role.

4.2 Projections for transport sector (Base and LCS Scenarios)

The approach for analysis introduces different set of actions under different

scenarios, for lowering the use of energy across sectors in the economy. Thus,

although transport sector accounts for a large share of mitigation in both the

scenarios, there are different set of policy actions that are causing this mitigation.

For the carbon tax scenario, the mitigation is achieved through climate centric

actions like increased vehicle efficiency, penetration of electric and hybrid

vehicles, and impetus on biofuels, like biodiesel and bioethanol. Whereas, under

the sustainability scenario, the mitigation is achieved through sustainable policies,


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such as adaptation for non-motorized transport ( bicycles, pedestrian pathways),

better public transport to substitute private vehicles, investments in alternate

transport modes like BRTS, City buses, local train, metro, monorail, etc, and use

of ICT/Intelligent systems for effective traffic management. It can be seen clearly

from Figure 7 and 8 below that SS scenario accounts for a larger reduction in

overall energy consumption and corresponding emissions, in passenger transport

sector.

Figure 7. CO2 emission in passenger transportation sector (MtC)

-50 - 50 100 150 200

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS REN Heat H2 ELE

Figure 8. Energy consumption in passenger transportation sector ( Mtoe)

- 100 200 300 400 500

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)



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As far as the freight transport sector is concerned, although there is a slight

reduction in the CO2 emissions from freight transportation in the SS scenario

(Figure 9), there is a notable increase in the overall energy consumption (Figure

10). This increase can be explained on account of a higher overall good

movement, for better recycling and reuse in the economy. This increase in the

energy consumption is more than compensated by the reduced energy demand

from the industrial sector on account of reduced demand for new production.

Figure 9. CO2 emission in freight transportation sector ( MtC)

-10 - 10 20 30 40 50

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)


Figure 10. Energy consumption in freight transportation sector (Mtoe)

- 20 40 60 80 100

2000

2050 CT Case (CM)

2050 SS Case (CM)



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4.3 Analysis of De-carbonization

To analyze the decoupling between energy and emissions, the two pathways for

achieving low carbon society are represented in terms of consumptions of final

and intermediate goods and services. This we do using the “Extended Kaya

Identity” (NIES, 2006). The change in CO2 emissions from a base year can be

understood using the following identity

Change in CO2 = Demand effect (D)

+ Energy intensity effect (E/D)

+ Carbon intensity effect (C/E)

+Measures effect (C’/C)

D : Driving forces (service demand of final and intermediate consumption)

E : Energy Consumption

C’ : CO2 emission without measures in energy transformation sector

C : CO2 emission with measures in transformation sector

Thus, it can be seen from Figure 11 below that there is a substantial reduction on

account of reduction in overall service demand under the SS scenario, which is

achieved through lower demand in intermediate sectors like transport. The energy

intensities (Figure 11) with respect to demand are fairly similar in the two

scenarios and contrary to expectations a sustainable society is more carbon

intensive. The overall level of emissions in SS scenario (Figure 12) is also higher,

since the key priority of the scenario is on development with the co-benefits of

climate change.


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Figure 11. Kaya Analysis of LCS Scenarios: Total Demand

628%

-162%

71%

-523%

15%

468%

-152%

137%

-346%

107%

-600%

-400%

-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

D E/D

C/E

C'/C

Tota

l

vs 2

000's

2050 CT Case 2050 SS Case Figure 12. CO2 emissions by fuel : Total Demand

- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2000

2050 CT Case(CM)

2050 SS Case(CM)

COL OIL GAS

Specifically for the passenger transport sector (Figure 13), it can be seen that there

is a substantial reduction in overall demand of transport services under the SS

scenario (the transport service demand growth is 1527% in the CT scenario, as

against only 890%in the SS scenario). Thus, although the SS scenario is more


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carbon and energy intensive (E/D, C/C, and C’/C ratios are better for CT

scenario), this reduction in overall energy demand (D) compensates for this,

leading to an overall reduction in the emissions from transport sector under the

sustainable society scenario.

Figure 13. Kaya Analysis of LCS Scenarios: Passenger Transport Sector

1527%

-306% -304% -373%

545%

890%

-171%-19%

-319%

381%

-500%

0%

500%

1000%

1500%

2000%

D E/D

C/E

C'/C

Tota

l

vs 2

000'

s

2050 CT Case 2050 SS Case

As far as the freight transport sector is concerned, although there is a slight

reduction in the CO2 emissions (viz-a-viz BAU) from freight transportation in the

SS scenario as against CT scenario (Figure 14), there is a slight increase in overall

emissions. As discussed earlier, this increase can be explained on account of an

increased demand for freight transport (D) in SS Scenario, due to higher overall

good movement for better recycling and reuse in the economy. This increase in

the energy consumption and emissions is supposed to be more than compensated

by the reduced energy demand and emissions from the industrial sector on

account of reduced demand for new production.


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Figure 14. Kaya Analysis of LCS Scenarios: Freight Transport Sector

492%

-34% -22%

-156%

280%

536%

10% 4%

-246%

304%

-300%

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

D E/D

C/E

C'/C

Tota

l

vs 2

000's

2050 CT Case 2050 SS Case

5. Low carbon transitions: A case study on freight transport

To demonstrate the long term emission benefits of such low carbon transitions in

particular transport sector, a project level case study of the Dedicated Freight

Corridor between Delhi and Mumbai has been taken. The freight transport in

India is shared between rail and road, with only a minor movement by air. In the

last few decades, the share of rail in total freight has declined considerably viz a

viz road, from above 80% in 1960s to around 35% currently. Although the

absolute numbers have increased for both, but rail freight suffered a setback as

against road. It was only in last few years that rail freight has seen a reversal in

decrease due to innumerous initiatives by The Ministry of Railways, thereby

resulting in the improvement of market share and operational margins. The Indian


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Railways’ quadrilateral linking the four metropolitan cities of Delhi, Mumbai,

Chennai and Howrah, commonly known as the Golden Quadrilateral; and its two

diagonals (Delhi-Chennai and Mumbai-Howrah), adding up to a total route length

of 10,122 km carries more than 55% of revenue earning freight traffic of IR. The

existing trunk routes of Howrah-Delhi on the Eastern Corridor and Mumbai-Delhi

on the Western Corridor are highly saturated, line capacity utilization varying

between 115% to 150%, with projections for a further increase in next few

decades. It was for this reason that the idea of a Dedicated Freight Corridor was

conceptualized, which is a multi-modal high axle load corridor between Delhi and

Mumbai, planned to cover an overall length of 1483km.

Railways, especially such dedicated corridors, have always been an economical

option of freight movement as compared to road. However, apart from the

obvious economical benefits of freight transport through rail, there are implicit

co-benefits of reduced emissions. Railways can carry a higher tonnage of freight

load for the same amount of fuel used, causing a decoupling of green house gas

emissions per unit of transport services rendered. This decoupling between

emissions and freight movement will be even stronger for such corridors, since

they are designed for higher speed, higher capacity and axle load , and longer

trains . Thus, whereas a typical truck used for freight transportation in India can

carry a payload capacity of 10 tonnes, a train moving on the DFC will have a

payload capacity of 12000 tonnes. Hence, every train on the DFC will be

replacing 1200 such tracks for the movement. As per our analysis, this will cause

a significant reduction in the emissions since for a tonne of freight movement by


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road, the CO2 equivalent emissions are 16 times more than that of freight train on

DFC. Under the current CDM architecture, a journey of the freight train between

Mumbai and Delhi will lead to a saving of around US$ 75,000 per trip from

emission reduction alone, as compared to the same movement by road2.

As per DMIC3 concept note, the rail share of container traffic on this corridor is

slated to increase from 0.69 million TEUs in 2005-06 to 6.2 million TEUs in

2021-22. The other commodities are projected to increase from 23 million tonnes

in 2005-06 to 40 million tonnes in 2021-22. Using these projections from DMIC

and the business as usual growth rates for rail and road freight, the freight

movement on rail and road can be summarized that for the period 2005-2006 to

2021-2022,

2021-22

2005-06

BAU 50-50

Total Rail Freight in India 667 2565 2565

Rail freight on the Mumbai-Delhi corridor 37 163 285

Road freight 106 407 285

(all figures in million tonnes) BAU: Business as usual modal share

50-50: 50% movement by road and rail each in future

Thus, this incremental shift over and above the business as usual baseline, if

eligible for carbon credits under the CDM architecture, will lead to earning of

CERs, which can be sold in the global carbon markets.

2 assuming CER price of € 10/CER, and an exchange rate of 1 USD = Rs. 52.50 3 Downloaded from http://dipp.nic.in/japan/japan_cell/Concept_Paper_Summary_020807.pdf


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6. Conclusion

Infrastructure is the backbone of any economy, more so for developing economies

aspiring to attain higher rates of growth. Since infrastructure like transport is a

long life asset, the development pathway taken by a country might create an

irreversible lock-in into certain style of sectoral architecture, with associated path

dependencies. Sectoral infrastructure choices made by an economy have a long

term bearing on the energy and emission profile of the nation. Hence, it becomes

crucial to make upfront policy choices for different infrastructural sectors like

energy supply, transport, urban, etc, to avoid locking in a carbon intensive future

like many developed nations. Thus, we need to alter the development pathway, so

as to achieve the co benefits for addressing climate change issue along with the

developmental concerns (GoI, 2008d). The paper analyzed two such pathways for

transition to a ‘low carbon transport’ in India. The first, which follows

conventional development paradigm, treats the carbon mitigation as an issue to be

treated at the margin of development decisions through carbon centric market

efficient instruments like carbon tax or permits to decouple the carbon emissions

from the economy (Shukla et. al. 2008). The alternate paradigm considers low

carbon transition as an issue embedded within the larger development issue of

transition to a ‘sustainable society’. It is clear from the results that both pathways

focus on set of policy actions having individual advantages, in terms of achieving

our development priorities and also mitigating against long term climate change.

These scenarios articulate two different futures, thus providing a conceptual basis

of discussion for policy makers to act upon.


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7. Future Scope

Infrastructure like rail are long life assets, and hence vulnerable to long term

climate change impacts. Traditionally impact assessment is carried out within the

framework of the impact of economic activities on the environment, such as

demonstrated in this research paper. Another issue which should be of concern for

the project planners is the potential threats posed by climate change to large

infrastructure projects like railway lines and roads. The vulnerability of many

such infrastructure projects against climate change is a issue of concern, and

demands extensive research, both for planning in advance in case of upcoming

infrastructure investments and for a better adaptation plan in case of existing

infrastructure, especially in the case of developing countries like India.

Apart from this, another interesting research issue to explore, from a pure policy

perspective, is the way in which the government of India plans to improve the

modal split of freight movement in favor of railways. Although the principal

collaborator for the DMIC project is Japan, but the country itself has a poor share

of railways in overall freight. Rail freight in Japan owns or controls virtually no

tracks, and is excluded from much of the network. And the scenario is similar for

most of the developed nations, with UK also having a substantially lower share of

rail in freight transport. Amongst the EU-25 nations, the modal share of rail

transport has steadily been decreasing viz a viz road. Amongst the developing

nations also the share of rail is relatively low, for example in South Africa, 85%

of freight movement is through road. Thus, it can be seen that rail has lost to road


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in freight movement across the world, and how India should address this issue so

as to increase the share of rail, will be a crucial policy question to explore.


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8. References

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