LTMS Version 2Sequence VID Example

LTMS TF SSMay 11, 2010

235 data entries◦ 160 chartable tests

Five test laboratories (A, B, D, F, G)◦ 35 test stands

2 stands only had one ref test These stands were not included in this analysis

Reference oil timeframe: 1/18/09 – 4/7/10

Reference Oil Data

3

New LTMS for the VID Stand Based Severity Adjustment

System “Old system” used continuous SA Primary Parameters

◦FEI1, %◦FEI2, %

Set = 0.3 (same as the ‘old’ system) Assumed pass limit based on xW-20

viscosity grades◦FEI1=1.4, FEI2=1.2◦Set Shewhart limits to ±2.0

LTMS Version 2 Chart Constants and Limits

Limit Type Limit

Level 3 2.1260Level 2 1.7840Level 1 1.3900

Undue Influence Follow Up 2.1260

Shewhart Chart of Prediction Error

ei = Yi - Zi-1

Parameter Limit Type Lambda Limit

FEI1 Level 2 Lower 0.3 -2.0

Level 2 Upper 0.3 2.0Level 1 0.3 0.0

FEI2 Level 2 Lower 0.3 -2.0Level 2 Upper 0.3 2.0

Level 1 0.3 0.0

EWMA of Standardized Test Result: Zi

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Calibration Attempts

Acceptable Failed Lab Invalid Aborted All Unusable Stand Removal

Nu

mb

er

Fate of VID Calibration AttemptsAccording to TMC Semi-Annual Reports - Current System

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Acceptable Failed Lab Invalid Aborted All Unusable

Pe

rce

nt o

f Ca

libra

tio

n A

tte

mp

tsFate of VID Calibration Attempts

According to TMC Semi-Annual Reports - Current System

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

FEI1 FEI2 Overall

Nu

mb

er o

f Pa

ram

ete

r Ala

rms

an

d A

cti

on

s

LTMS Alarms in the Sequence VID Parameters Based on Chartable Tests Only

Unacceptable - Current

Unacceptable - New

Reduced Interval - New

Extended 40% - New

Extended 20% - New

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10B 15C 6B 12C 1C 4D 4C 6D

Nu

mb

er o

f Te

st A

larm

s

Test Stand

LTMS Alarms in the Sequence VID Test Based on Chartable Tests OnlyFEI1 and FEI2

Unacceptable - Current

Unacceptable - New

Reduced Interval - New

Extended 40% - New

Extended 20% - New

0

1

2

3

9C 18C 16C 20C 3D 5D 3A 9D

Nu

mb

er o

f Te

st A

larm

s

Test Stand

LTMS Alarms in the Sequence VID Test Based on Chartable Tests OnlyFEI1 and FEI2

Unacceptable - Current

Unacceptable - New

Reduced Interval - New

Extended 40% - New

Extended 20% - New

0

1

2

3

4

3B 5C 3C 10D 13B 13C 10A 1D

Nu

mb

er o

f Te

st A

larm

s

Test Stand

LTMS Alarms in the Sequence VID Test Based on Chartable Tests OnlyFEI1 and FEI2

Unacceptable - Current

Unacceptable - New

Reduced Interval - New

Extended 40% - New

Extended 20% - New

0

1

2

3

11A 12B 13A 8A 6C 11C 12D 14A 19C

Nu

mb

er o

f Te

st A

larm

s

Test Stand

LTMS Alarms in the Sequence VID Test Based on Chartable Tests OnlyFEI1 and FEI2

Unacceptable - Current

Unacceptable - New

Reduced Interval - New

Extended 40% - New

Extended 20% - New

FEI1 Effective Pass Limit Results

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Ave

rag

e F

EI1

Test Stand

Average Relative Candidate Test Result in the Sequence VIDBased on All Chartable Tests FEI1

Current System

New System

FEI2 Effective Pass Limit Results

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

Ave

rag

e F

EI2

Test Stand

Average Relative Candidate Test Result in the Sequence VIDBased on All Chartable Tests FEI2

Current System

New System

FEI1 Variability Results

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

Ave

rag

e F

EI1

RM

SE

Test Stand

Candidate Oil Test Result Target Variability in the Sequence VIDBased on All Chartable Tests FEI1

Current System

New System

FEI2 Variability Results

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Ave

rag

e F

EI2

RM

SE

Test Stand

Candidate Oil Test Result Target Variability in the Sequence VIDBased on All Chartable Tests FEI2

Current SystemNew System

FEI1 Effective Pass Limit Stand 10B

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

FE

I1

Time

Effective Pass Limit Given Severity Adjustment for FEI1 Stand 10B

Old System

New System

FEI2 Effective Pass Limit Stand 10B

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

FE

I2

Time

Effective Pass Limit Given Severity Adjustment for FEI2 Stand 10B

Old System

New System

FEI1 Effective Pass Limit Stand 13A

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

FE

I1

Time

Effective Pass Limit Given Severity Adjustment for FEI1 Stand 13A

Old System

New System

FEI2 Effective Pass Limit Stand 13A

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

FE

I2

Time

Effective Pass Limit Given Severity Adjustment for FEI2 Stand 13A

Old System

New System