luke van der laan - strategic thinking
DESCRIPTION
Luke's 2013 ILS presentationTRANSCRIPT
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VANFUTURES STRATEGY SOLUTIONS
Dr Luke van der Laan [email protected]
Tel: 0450091598 Director Professional Studies, USQ
Principle VANFUTURES Strategy Solutions Member: World Futures Studies Federation
Member: Association of Professional Futurists (USA) Member: Higher Education Research Development Society of Australasia
THE POSSIBLE is THE NEW PROBABLE
Unlocking Innovation
© Pictures courtesy of: 2013, thinkingfutures.net
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‘Catch your Thinking’
It is meaningless to talk of strategy / innovation / change / transformation / invention ….
without engaging the future!
As we progress through this session, consider what changes you can make in what you think and do at work
K Teezy www.flickr.com cc
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‘We now stand on the threshold of a new age – the age of
revolution. In our minds we know that the new age has already arrived. In
our bellies we are not sure we like it. For we know it is going to be an
age of upheaval, of tumult, of fortunes made and unmade at
head-snapping speed. For change has changed.
No longer does it move in a straight line … change is
discontinuous, abrupt, seditious’ Gary Hamel
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Why have so few economists foreseen the credit crunch?
Her Majesty the Queen’ question to the London School of Economics, 2009
In recent years economics has turned virtually into a
branch of applied mathematics, and has
become detached from real-world institutions and
events … What has become scarce is a professional
wisdom informed by a rich knowledge of psychology,
institutional structures and historic precedence
Prof. G Hodgson et al. in a formal response to the Queen’s question,
22 July 2009 The Economist, Oct, 2008
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‘Post-normal times’ Moving from the knowledge age to the conceptual age
• KNOWING TO THINKING
• International corporate workforce imperative:
• High need to develop higher-order intellectual skills and capabilities associated with the shift from the knowledge era to the conceptual era (EFMD, 2012).
• Reversing the cycle of ‘creativity-theft’ and ‘negative creativity’
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The Problem
• Co-creative systems: consistently exercise creativity and provident care
BUT • Negative Creativity & Creativity
Theft reduces scope of possibility • It is likely that traditional
forecasting used only will get the future wrong
we have moved to the possible becoming the
probable!
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Why the research?
“There is an ‘agony’ in being strategic” (van der Laan, 2011)
“you will realise that you cannot reduce your risk by simply letting the long term take care of itself … for in complex
systems, even doing nothing could have escalating consequences” (Stacey 1992, p. 18)
Leadership imperative to transcend dominant paradigms and open up the emergence of
innovation.
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Strategy: Primary indicator of Performance
Strategy Organisational Performance
Valuable Strategy
Planning & Implementation
72%
Van der Laan, 2010
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Foresight & Strategic Thinking
• Individual Foresight – human ability to creatively envision possible futures, understand
the complexity and ambiguity of systems
– provide input for the taking of provident care in detecting and avoiding hazards while seeking to achieve a preferred future.
(van der Laan, 2010)
• Strategic Thinking – strategic thinking is regarded as a synthesis of systematic
analysis and creative (generative) thought processes
– that seek to determine the longer-term direction of the organisation.
(van der Laan, 2010)
“A holistic understanding of the organisation and its environment, creativity and visioning” (Bonn, 2005)
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Foresight
• Dominant orientation to time – Thinking in time or out of time (we need healthy orientation to the future and past and less to the present) PLUS
• Foresight styles promoting framing (Exploring) and exploiting trends
• Good to be an adapter but less so.
• Don’t want to be a reactor
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Systems perspective
Intelligent opportunism
Hypothesis Driven
Thinking in Time
Intent focus
Strategic Thinking
creative and analytical thought 4
organisation’ longer-term
strategic direction
Output• Exploitative / Explorative Strategic problem solving
•Conceptualisation of the organisation’s longer-term preferred future•Disruption of alignment (creation of new options)
Strategic Thinking
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Strategic Thinking
Analytical Hypothesis driven, Intent
focussed, Systems Perspective
Careful analysis Requires control
Problem solving Systems thinking
Uses considerable data
Creative / Generative Thinking in Time, Intelligent Opportunism
Creative / generates multiple alternatives Independent thinking / Tolerance for ambiguity
Future / Long-term orientated
Initiates new ideas
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The TripleV Framework
Van der Laan, 2010
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TripleV Research
• Investigation of relationship between individual foresight, strategic thinking and strategy.
• Structural Equation Modelling (SEM)
• 101 CEOs (34%), 110 Senior Managers (37%) of large enterprises.
• Senior Executives of all QLD Regional Universities – Model confirmation
• AUS4.5Billion (direct / indirect)
• Large SEA companies
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Consequences
• Static strategy & innovation
• ‘Creativity Theft’ & Negative Creativity
• Limitation of innate human capabilities in organisations
• Inability to innovate beyond client imagination CCflickr.com
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The TripleV Imperative
• Viable futures (more options and memories of
the future outside the probable)
• Visible strategic thinking (engaged and making clever choices)
• Valuable strategy (taking action, planning and implementing )
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ENABLED BY LEADERS
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Creating Probable Possibles (Disruptive Interventions)
• Intelligence = high-end of knowledge value chain
• Foresight core competence = futures intelligence
• Strategic Thinking core competence = intelligent ambidexterity (exploitative & explorative direction)
Intelligent Planning and Implementation
ENTERPRISE OF THE FUTURE
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En
gag
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Syste
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teg
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Man
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Accounta
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Resil
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Ad
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Inn
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Dis
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Diffe
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LEADERSHIP
STRATEGY
Leadership Umbrella (van der Laan, 2011)
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Strategy / Innovation
• Traditional / Top Down (61%)
• Influence on Strategy (6.6%)
• Active in innovation (23%)
• Not involved in innovation (41%)
• High influence on innovation (8.7%)
• Innovation done by senior managers (56%)
• Company is not / a little innovative (33%)
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TripleV Model
• Foresight • Alternative
Futures
Viable
• Strategic Thinking
• Engaged, informed and creative
Visible • Strategy (&
Innovation) • Informed
Planning and Actioning
Valuable
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Why Creativity?
Possible is the new Probable!
Divergent thinking saves companies!
Strategic ambidexterity!
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Current practice??
TIME
UNCERTAINTY
Present Future
Low
High Planning Window (3 years)
PROBABLE FUTURE - Forecasting (based on assumptions and trend data. High-end technological knowledge processing and modelling – Big Data)
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Preferred Future
TIME
UNCERTAINTY
Present Future
Low
High
Forecast
1. F
OR
ESIG
HT
2. Strategic Thinking
3. Strategic Planning
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• Default Future
• Used Future
• Disowned Future
• Alternative Future
• Alignment
Bjornmeansbear flickr.com
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OBSTACLES
FUTURE PHOBIA
INFO-MANIA
PERSPECTIVE PARALYSIS
REVERSE PARANOIA
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• Reductionist frameworks
• Technology- / data-driven paradigms are dominant
• Consequence: constrained futures - flatlands
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The FUTURE IS NOT WHAT ‘IT’ SEEMS
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or FUTURES?
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‘THERE IS NO VOLITION WITHOUT AN OBJECT AND THE OBJECT OF A VOLITION IS THAT AN IMAGE OF THE MIND BECOMES A
FACT’ Bertrand de Jouvenal
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‘We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them’. Albert Einstein
Innovation???
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Transformative Vision
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Contact:
Dr Luke van der Laan Principle, VANFUTURES Strategy Solutions
Tel: +61 450091598
Mobile: 0450091598