maintaining resiliency of stormwater and … · temporal: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099...
TRANSCRIPT
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MAINTAINING RESILIENCY OF STORMWATER
AND RESTORATION PRACTICES PROGRESS UPDATE
JUNE 2020 USWG MEETING
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QUICK REFRESHER
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FROM MEMO 1
Biggest Concern is damage to public and private infrastructure – particularly roads, bridges and culverts – caused
by large storm events
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Damage to Public and Private Infrastructure During
Extreme Floods
Public health and safety issues during floods and/or
droughts; emergency response capabilities
Declining performance of public and private
stormwater management systems (quality and…
Increased flood damage to public open space,
stream corridors and natural habitats
Blue sky flooding of roads and parking lots (in tidal
areas), public and private
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FROM MEMO 1:
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Comfortable
Fine for now -- but getting concerned
Pretty concerned
Need better information now
Number of Responses
How comfortable are you with the quality and utility of the engineering design
criteria on future rainfall intensity provided to you by state and/or federal
authorities in your community?
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WHAT’S AT RISK?
Public Infrastructure
Sewer pipe network
Roads, streets and storm drains
Bridges, culverts and crossings
Water pipe distribution system
Dams, embankments and flood control practices
Public stream restoration projects
Public stream corridor or waterfront
Wastewater treatment plants and public works yards (floodplain)
Private Property
Expansion of 100 year floodplain insurance boundaries
Residential flood damage
Shoreline engineering to prevent erosion
Bank erosion/tree canopy loss
Failure of privately- owned stormwater systems
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LOOKING AT THE PROJECTIONSWHAT’S COMING IN MEMO 3
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IT’S ABOUT MORE THAN JUST RAINFALL
Temperature, Streamflow and Sea Level Rise all affect Stormwater Management
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TEMPERATURE
Table 2. Change in temperature (°C) as compared to 1995
Geography Year 2025 Year 2035 Year 2045 Year 2055
Delaware 1.03 1.36 1.65 1.93
Maryland 1.09 1.43 1.74 2.01
Virginia 1.07 1.41 1.73 1.97
Pennsylvania 1.17 1.51 1.89 2.12
District of Columbia 1.10 1.44 1.76 2.03
West Virginia 1.13 1.48 1.82 2.07
New York 1.19 1.54 1.93 2.18
CB Watershed 1.12 1.47 1.81 2.06
Source: CBP 2019 Climate Change Assessment
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SEA LEVEL RISE
Table: Sea Level Rise (ft) compared to 1995, used in the 2019 CBP
Climate Assessment
Geography Year 2025 Year 2035 Year 2045 Year 2055
Chesapeake Bay 0.72 1.01 1.38 1.74
Source: CBP 2019 Climate Change Assessment
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PRECIPITATION GETS A LITTLE TRICKIER
Table 3. Percent change in annual rainfall volume as compared to 1995
Geography Year 2025 Year 2035 Year 2045 Year 2055
Delaware 2.06% 3.10% 4.14% 6.23%
Maryland 3.09% 4.13% 4.92% 6.70%
Virginia 2.56% 3.68% 5.23% 6.50%
Pennsylvania 3.28% 4.46% 5.07% 6.32%
District of Columbia 3.14% 4.11% 5.07% 6.83%
West Virginia 2.72% 3.73% 5.23% 6.53%
New York 5.00% 6.09% 5.99% 6.24%
CB Watershed 3.11% 4.23% 5.19% 6.44%
Source: CBP 2019 Climate Change Assessment
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PRECIPITATION GETS A LITTLE TRICKIER
Image source F. Giorgi, 2008
Courtesy: Alan Cohn (NYC DEP)
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DOWNSCALING STUDIES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
Study Location Downscaling Method RCPs Analyzed Temporal and Geographic Scale
New York Dynamical
Delta
Analogue
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Temporal: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099
Geographic: Gauge
Virginia Beach
Dynamical
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Temporal: 2026-2065, 2056-2095
Geographic: 11km grid (RCP8.5); 44km grid (RCP4.5)
Maryland Eastern
ShoreDelta RCP8.5
Temporal: 2041-2070
Geographic: 750m grid
Philadelphia Stochastic Rainfall
Generator + Delta
SRES A2 emissions
(Roughly comparable to
RCP8.5)
Temporal: 2080-2100
Geographic: Gauge
Virginia (ODU)
Delta
SRES A2 emissions
(Roughly comparable to
RCP8.5)
Temporal: 2035-2070
Geographic: Gauge
DRAFT Precipitation Downscaling Studies in the Mid-Atlantic
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GOALS
Review the different efforts across the region to project future precipitation
Understand considerations when selecting downscaling methods, timescales and resolution
Identify trends in projected rainfall volume and intensity
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BMP VULNERABILITY ANALYSISLOOKING AHEAD TO MEMO 4
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WHAT BMPS ARE AT RISK
Upland vs Stream Corridor
Drainage Area – Distributed LID vs Detention Ponds
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WHAT DOES FAILURE LOOK LIKE
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/us/michigan-dam-failure-before-
after-photos-trnd/index.html
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WHAT ARE POTENTIAL DESIGN ADAPTATIONS
Shorter practice lifespans?
Retrofits/makeovers?
More BMPs “treatment trains”?
Improved plumbing (bypass/overflows)?
Providing factor of safety (freeboard)?
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QUESTIONS?