maintenance plan for the chicago pm2.5 nonattainment area illinois environmental protection agency...
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Maintenance Plan for the Maintenance Plan for the Chicago PM2.5 Chicago PM2.5
Nonattainment AreaNonattainment Area
Illinois Environmental Illinois Environmental
Protection AgencyProtection AgencyJuly 14, 2010July 14, 2010
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The Maintenance PlanThe Maintenance Plan The maintenance plan provides for The maintenance plan provides for
continued attainment of the 1997 annual continued attainment of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS for the Chicago nonattainment PM2.5 NAAQS for the Chicago nonattainment area for ten years after U.S. EPA formally area for ten years after U.S. EPA formally redesignates the area to attainment.redesignates the area to attainment.
The plan provides assurances that if a The plan provides assurances that if a subsequent violation of the NAAQS occurs, subsequent violation of the NAAQS occurs, contingency measures would be triggered to contingency measures would be triggered to prevent further violations.prevent further violations.
The plan establishes motor vehicle The plan establishes motor vehicle emissions budgets to assure that increases emissions budgets to assure that increases in miles driven do not result in an increase of in miles driven do not result in an increase of emissions.emissions.
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Maintenance Plan Maintenance Plan RequirementsRequirements
A comprehensive emission inventory of the A comprehensive emission inventory of the precursors of PM2.5 completed for the “attainment precursors of PM2.5 completed for the “attainment year”.year”.
A projection of the emission inventory to a year at A projection of the emission inventory to a year at least ten years following redesignation and a least ten years following redesignation and a demonstration that the projected level of demonstration that the projected level of emissions is sufficient to maintain the PM2.5 emissions is sufficient to maintain the PM2.5 NAAQS.NAAQS.
A commitment that, once redesignated, the state A commitment that, once redesignated, the state will continue to operate an appropriate monitoring will continue to operate an appropriate monitoring network to verify that the area continues to attain.network to verify that the area continues to attain.
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Maintenance Plan Maintenance Plan Requirements, cont’d.Requirements, cont’d.
A demonstration of legal authority to A demonstration of legal authority to implement and enforce all control measures.implement and enforce all control measures.
Provisions for future updates of the inventory Provisions for future updates of the inventory to enable tracking of the emission levels, to enable tracking of the emission levels, including an annual emissions statement including an annual emissions statement from major sources.from major sources.
A commitment to submit a revised A commitment to submit a revised maintenance plan eight years after maintenance plan eight years after redesignation.redesignation.
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Maintenance Plan Maintenance Plan Requirements, cont’d.Requirements, cont’d.
A commitment to enact and implement A commitment to enact and implement additional contingency control measures additional contingency control measures expeditiously in response to exceeding expeditiously in response to exceeding specified levels (triggers) or in the event specified levels (triggers) or in the event that future violations of the NAAQS occur.that future violations of the NAAQS occur.
A list of potential contingency measures A list of potential contingency measures that could be implemented in such an event.that could be implemented in such an event.
The state must hold a public hearing on the The state must hold a public hearing on the maintenance plan prior to adoptionmaintenance plan prior to adoption
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Annual PM2.5 Design Values in the Chicago Annual PM2.5 Design Values in the Chicago AreaArea
2000-2002 2007-2009
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2008 Base Year Inventory2008 Base Year Inventory
Point SourcesPoint Sources– Annual emission reports, permit data, etc.Annual emission reports, permit data, etc.
Area SourcesArea Sources– Emission factors and activity levelsEmission factors and activity levels
On-road mobile sourcesOn-road mobile sources– MOBILE6.2 modelMOBILE6.2 model
Off-road mobile sourcesOff-road mobile sources– NONROAD modelNONROAD model– Other data (locomotives, commercial Other data (locomotives, commercial
marine vessels, aircraftmarine vessels, aircraft))
Future Year InventoriesFuture Year Inventories
2008 Base Year grown to 2015, 2020 and 20252008 Base Year grown to 2015, 2020 and 2025– Point and area sourcesPoint and area sources
Growth factorsGrowth factors Shutdowns/changes/consent decreesShutdowns/changes/consent decrees Illinois Multi-Pollutant Rule for utilitiesIllinois Multi-Pollutant Rule for utilities
– On-road mobile sourcesOn-road mobile sources MOBILE6.2MOBILE6.2
– Off-road mobile sourcesOff-road mobile sources NONROADNONROAD Growth factorsGrowth factors 33rdrd airport airport
Chicago PMChicago PM2.52.5, NOx, and SO, NOx, and SO22 Emissions 2002 vs. 2008Emissions 2002 vs. 2008
2002
2008
Source Category PM2.5 NOx SO2
Point Sources 3,859 35,939 90,706Area Sources 9,189 32,318 4,109On-Road Mobile Sources 1,816 99,627 575Off-Road Mobile Sources
3,653 51,184 779
Total 18,517 219,068 96,169
Source Category PM2.5 NOx SO2
Point Sources 2,757 54,050 121,598Area Sources 8,441 32,325 3,290On-Road Mobile Sources 3,071 167,620 3,850Off-Road Mobile Sources
4,834 87,426 3,743
Total 19,103 341,421 132,481
Chicago PMChicago PM2.52.5, NOx, and SO, NOx, and SO22 Emissions 2008 vs. 20Emissions 2008 vs. 202525
2008
2025
Source Category PM2.5 NOx SO2
Point Sources 3,859 35,939 90,706
Area Sources 9,189 32,318 4,109
On-Road Mobile Sources 1,816 99,627 575
Off-Road Mobile Sources 3,653 51,184 779
Total 18,517 219,068 96,169
Source Category PM2.5 NOx SO2
Point Sources 4,604 29,638 56,310Area Sources 10,377 33,687 4,407On-Road Mobile Sources 1,064 23,687 734Off-Road Mobile Sources 2,267 27,173 1,215
Total 18,312 114,185 62,666
PMPM2.52.5 Emissions Emissions
2008 (18,517 tons/yr)2008 (18,517 tons/yr)
21%
49%10%
20%Point
Area
On-road
Off-road
2025 (18,312 tons/yr)2025 (18,312 tons/yr)
25%
57%
6%12%
Point
Area
On-road
Off-road
NOx EmissionsNOx Emissions
2008 (219,068 tons/yr)2008 (219,068 tons/yr)
16%
15%
46%
23%
PointAreaOn-roadOff-road
2025 (114,185 tons/yr)2025 (114,185 tons/yr)
26%
29%21%
24%Point
Area
On-road
Off-road
SOSO22 Emissions Emissions
2008 (96,169 tons/yr)2008 (96,169 tons/yr)
94%
4%1%
1%PointAreaOn-roadOff-road
2025 (62,666 tons/yr)2025 (62,666 tons/yr)
90%
7% 1%2% Point
Area
On-road
Off-road
PMPM2.52.5 Emission Trend Emission Trend
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2002 2008 2015 2020 2025
Point Area On-road Off-road
NOx Emission TrendNOx Emission Trend
050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000
2002 2008 2015 2020 2025
Point Area On-road Off-road
SOSO22 Emission Trend Emission Trend
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2002 2008 2015 2020 2025
Point Area On-road Off-road
Contingency PlanContingency Plan A commitment to enact and A commitment to enact and
implement additional measures in implement additional measures in the event that future violations of the event that future violations of the NAAQS occurthe NAAQS occur
Level I and Level II “Triggers”Level I and Level II “Triggers”
Control measures to be Control measures to be implemented after States implemented after States determine appropriate response determine appropriate response
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Level I and Level II Level I and Level II TriggersTriggers
Level I:Level I: Annual PM2.5 > 15 ug/m3 Annual PM2.5 > 15 ug/m3 at one location in any one year, or at one location in any one year, or Adverse Emission TrendsAdverse Emission Trends
Level II:Level II: Violation of the NAAQS Violation of the NAAQS
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Analysis to be Conducted Analysis to be Conducted in the Event of Future in the Event of Future
ViolationsViolations Number, location, severity of exceedancesNumber, location, severity of exceedances Weather patterns / PMWeather patterns / PM2.52.5 conduciveness conduciveness Contributing emission sourcesContributing emission sources Impacts due to transportImpacts due to transport Emission trendsEmission trends Timeliness of implementation of scheduled Timeliness of implementation of scheduled
control measurescontrol measures Availability of new control technologiesAvailability of new control technologies Geographic applicability of contingency Geographic applicability of contingency
measuresmeasures19
Contingency MeasuresContingency Measures
IL MPS/CPS for utilitiesIL MPS/CPS for utilities
VOC and NOx RACTVOC and NOx RACT
Best Available Retrofit Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART)Technology (BART)
Consent DecreesConsent Decrees
Enhanced Vehicle I/MEnhanced Vehicle I/M
Federal Off-Road Federal Off-Road Emissions StandardsEmissions Standards
Tier 2/Low Sulfur Tier 2/Low Sulfur Fuel StandardsFuel Standards
Heavy Duty Diesel Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Emissions Vehicle Emissions StandardsStandards
Consumer Products, Consumer Products, AIM, Aerosol AIM, Aerosol Coatings, Portable Coatings, Portable Fuel ContainersFuel Containers
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CommitmentsCommitments
Update Maintenance Plan Within Eight Update Maintenance Plan Within Eight YearsYears
Update Emission Inventory Every Three Update Emission Inventory Every Three YearsYears
Continue to Operate Monitoring Continue to Operate Monitoring NetworkNetwork
Enforce all Applicable Requirements in Enforce all Applicable Requirements in the State Implementation Planthe State Implementation Plan
Contingency MeasuresContingency Measures 21
Transportation ConformityTransportation Conformity
A Clean Air Act requirement intended to A Clean Air Act requirement intended to ensure that the implementation of ensure that the implementation of transportation plans does not:transportation plans does not:
• Cause or contribute to new air quality Cause or contribute to new air quality violationsviolations
• Worsen existing violations , orWorsen existing violations , or• Delay timely attainment of relevant air Delay timely attainment of relevant air
quality quality standards standards
Therefore, total motor vehicle emissions from Therefore, total motor vehicle emissions from the implementation of a Transportation Plan the implementation of a Transportation Plan are “capped” at specific levels identified as are “capped” at specific levels identified as “motor vehicle emissions budgets” within the “motor vehicle emissions budgets” within the State Implementation Plan State Implementation Plan 22
Transportation ConformityTransportation Conformity
Attainment Year motor vehicle emissions Attainment Year motor vehicle emissions budgets based on the actual vehicle miles budgets based on the actual vehicle miles travelled in 2008 in the Chicago travelled in 2008 in the Chicago Nonattainment AreaNonattainment Area
58.8 billion miles per year58.8 billion miles per year
Maintenance Plan Year 2025 budgets based Maintenance Plan Year 2025 budgets based on 2008 VMT “grown” by 1.5% per year on 2008 VMT “grown” by 1.5% per year
75.7 billion miles per year75.7 billion miles per year
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Transportation ConformityTransportation Conformity
Key emissions control programs assumed Key emissions control programs assumed and incorporated into the budgets and incorporated into the budgets include:include:
• Use of Northern grade Reformulated Use of Northern grade Reformulated GasolineGasoline
• Continued operation of the Vehicle Continued operation of the Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program Inspection and Maintenance Program
• Implementation of the national Tier 2 light-Implementation of the national Tier 2 light-duty vehicle emissions standards and duty vehicle emissions standards and gasoline sulfur limitsgasoline sulfur limits
• Implementation of the national heavy-duty Implementation of the national heavy-duty diesel emissions standards and diesel diesel emissions standards and diesel sulfur limitssulfur limits
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Proposed Chicago PM2.5 Maintenance Plan
Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (tons per year)
Year PM2.5 NOx
2008 1,816 99,627
2025 1,064 23,687
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