majority electoral systems: the second ballot & the alternative vote (av)
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Majority electoral systems: the second ballot & the alternative vote (AV). Weekend 3 : Session 2. The problem of majorities. If there are more than two candidates contesting a seat at an election, the candidate with the most votes need not get a majority; here is an example with 100 voters: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Majority electoral systems:Majority electoral systems:the second ballot &the second ballot &
the alternative vote (AV)the alternative vote (AV)
Weekend 3 : Session 2Weekend 3 : Session 2
The problem of majoritiesThe problem of majorities
If there are more than two candidates contesting a If there are more than two candidates contesting a seat at an election, the candidate with the most seat at an election, the candidate with the most votes need not get a majority; here is an example votes need not get a majority; here is an example with 100 voters:with 100 voters:
Candidate X gets 15 votesCandidate X gets 15 votesCandidate Y gets 45 votesCandidate Y gets 45 votesCandidate Z gets 40 votesCandidate Z gets 40 votes
Candidate Y has a plurality of votes (the most) but Candidate Y has a plurality of votes (the most) but not a majority (a majority would be 51 of 100 votes)not a majority (a majority would be 51 of 100 votes)
The problem of majoritiesThe problem of majorities
Question — How to ensure that the winning Question — How to ensure that the winning candidate at an election always gets a majority of candidate at an election always gets a majority of votes?votes?
Answer — By forcing the voter to make a final Answer — By forcing the voter to make a final choice between only two candidates. With only choice between only two candidates. With only two candidates for a seat, one must get a two candidates for a seat, one must get a majoritymajority
But how can this be done?But how can this be done?
First solution: second ballotFirst solution: second ballot
If no candidate gets a majority of votes at an If no candidate gets a majority of votes at an election, hold a second election between the top two election, hold a second election between the top two candidatescandidates
To continue the example, after the first election:To continue the example, after the first election:
Y gets 45 votes (plurality winner, but no majority; Y Y gets 45 votes (plurality winner, but no majority; Y goes to next round of elections)goes to next round of elections)
Z gets 40 votes (2Z gets 40 votes (2ndnd most votes, and Z goes to next most votes, and Z goes to next round of elections)round of elections)
X gets 15 votes (fewest votes; X is excluded)X gets 15 votes (fewest votes; X is excluded)
First solution: second ballotFirst solution: second ballot
The 100 voters vote at the second election a week The 100 voters vote at the second election a week later with only two contestants, Y and Z:later with only two contestants, Y and Z:
Y gets 48 votes (only gains three of X’s votes)Y gets 48 votes (only gains three of X’s votes)
Z gets 52 votes (gains 12 of X’s votes) and Z gets 52 votes (gains 12 of X’s votes) and wins a wins a majority!majority!
(This assumes that only those who voted for X in (This assumes that only those who voted for X in the first election changed their vote. Of course, any the first election changed their vote. Of course, any voter is free to change his/her mind between the voter is free to change his/her mind between the two elections!)two elections!)
First solution: second ballotFirst solution: second ballot
The second ballot solution guarantees that all elected The second ballot solution guarantees that all elected candidates gain a majority of votes because:candidates gain a majority of votes because:
Either they won a majority at the first round electionEither they won a majority at the first round election Or, where no candidate won a majority at the first Or, where no candidate won a majority at the first
round election in their electoral district, they won a round election in their electoral district, they won a majority at the second round electionmajority at the second round election
But there is another solution; the alternative vote (AV)But there is another solution; the alternative vote (AV)
Second solution: AVSecond solution: AV
The alternative vote (AV) is a way of compressing The alternative vote (AV) is a way of compressing the second ballot solution into a single election so the second ballot solution into a single election so that all successful candidates gain a majority of that all successful candidates gain a majority of votesvotes
If voters could indicate their second choice of If voters could indicate their second choice of candidate at the same time as their first choice, candidate at the same time as their first choice, only one election would be necessaryonly one election would be necessary
But to achieve this, a preferential ballot is requiredBut to achieve this, a preferential ballot is required
Here is an example:Here is an example:
An election with 100 voters to elect An election with 100 voters to elect one representative using AVone representative using AV
There are three candidates:There are three candidates:
Fred (X Party)Fred (X Party)Ling (Y Party)Ling (Y Party)Menka (Z Party)Menka (Z Party)
A voter must rank candidates by placing 1, 2, or 3 A voter must rank candidates by placing 1, 2, or 3 next to the candidates’ names in the order of the next to the candidates’ names in the order of the voter’s preference voter’s preference
For a ballot to be valid, all candidates must be For a ballot to be valid, all candidates must be ranked (compulsory expression of preferences)ranked (compulsory expression of preferences)
The successful candidate must gain a majority of The successful candidate must gain a majority of valid votes (1 more than half the total of valid valid votes (1 more than half the total of valid votes) votes)
AV ballot paper (to elect one representative)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (to elect one representative)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (to elect one representative)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (to elect one representative)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (all combinations)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (Fred’s 1st preferences)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (Ling’s 1st preferences)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
AV ballot paper (Menka’s 1st preferences)
Fred
X party
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party
Fred
X party15 first preference votes
Ling
Y Party45 first preference votes
Ling is the plurality winner
Menka
Z party40 first preference votes
AV election (to elect one representative)
Fred
X party15 first preference votesAs no candidate has a majority, Fred is excluded as the candidate with the fewest 1st preferences
Ling
Y Party45 first preference votesLing is the plurality winner, but does not have a majority
Menka
Z party40 first preference votesMenka stays in the count
AV election (to elect one representative)
AV election (to elect one representative)
Fred
X partyOf Fred’s 15 first
preferences, 3 are like this
Ling
Y Party3 second preference
go to Ling
Menka
Z party
AV election (to elect one representative)
Fred
X partyOf Fred’s 15 first
preferences, 12 are like this
Ling
Y Party
Menka
Z party12 second preference go to Menka
AV election (to elect one representative)
Fred
X party
15 first preference votes
(Fred is excluded: he has the fewest 1st preferences)
Ling
Y Party
45 first preference votes + 3 of Fred’s 2nd preferences = 48 votes
Ling does not have a majority
Menka
Z party
40 first preference votes + 12 of Fred’s 2nd preferences = 52 votes
Menka has a majority and is elected
Another example of AVAnother example of AV
An animated example of AV (or preferential An animated example of AV (or preferential voting as the Australians call it) can be found on voting as the Australians call it) can be found on the website of the State Electoral Office of South the website of the State Electoral Office of South Australia (look for Counting Methods, Exclusion Australia (look for Counting Methods, Exclusion ‘Bottom up’:‘Bottom up’:
http://www.seo.sa.gov.au/flash.htmhttp://www.seo.sa.gov.au/flash.htm
Why have majority systems Why have majority systems been adopted?been adopted?
To reduce the representation of small parties and To reduce the representation of small parties and force their supporters to align themselves behind force their supporters to align themselves behind one of two large party groupings; the current one of two large party groupings; the current French second ballot system for the National French second ballot system for the National Assembly was introduced for this reasonAssembly was introduced for this reason
To prevent one large party from benefiting from a To prevent one large party from benefiting from a split in the other large party; in Australia AV has split in the other large party; in Australia AV has been used to preserve a non-Labor coalition been used to preserve a non-Labor coalition against the Australian Labor Party; in BC AV was against the Australian Labor Party; in BC AV was introduced to preserve a Liberal/Conservative introduced to preserve a Liberal/Conservative government against the CCF/NDPgovernment against the CCF/NDP
Have they achieved their goal?Have they achieved their goal?
In France, yes, but significant small parties have In France, yes, but significant small parties have continued to have an influence in French politicscontinued to have an influence in French politics
In BC, only partially; the CCF/NDP was kept out of In BC, only partially; the CCF/NDP was kept out of office, but the beneficiary was a new party, Social office, but the beneficiary was a new party, Social CreditCredit
In Australia, yes, but over more than 80 years, In Australia, yes, but over more than 80 years, the beneficiaries have been, at various times, the beneficiaries have been, at various times, large parties on both the left and the rightlarge parties on both the left and the right
Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems
Majority (stable) governmentMajority (stable) government
Majority systems are designed to produce one-Majority systems are designed to produce one-party governments or well established coalition party governments or well established coalition governments with majority support in parliament.governments with majority support in parliament.
Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems
Electoral accountabilityElectoral accountability
Two-party competition encouragedTwo-party competition encouraged Contests become government versus opposition Contests become government versus opposition
— voters have a choice of who will be in — voters have a choice of who will be in governmentgovernment
Some ability for small parties to pressure large Some ability for small parties to pressure large parties but only at election timeparties but only at election time
Voters have choice of supporting or opposing Voters have choice of supporting or opposing local candidateslocal candidates
Provision for local representation (if DM is low)Provision for local representation (if DM is low)
Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems
Parliamentary check on governmentParliamentary check on government
& role of MLA& role of MLA
Majority government frees government from serious Majority government frees government from serious parliamentary scrutiny; executive dominanceparliamentary scrutiny; executive dominance
Permits premier-dominated style of governmentPermits premier-dominated style of government
All MLAs have the same electoral standing and a All MLAs have the same electoral standing and a similar identifiable constituency (even if the DM similar identifiable constituency (even if the DM varies)varies)
Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems
Fair representation of parties and social Fair representation of parties and social groupsgroups
There may be big distortions between vote shares There may be big distortions between vote shares and seat sharesand seat shares
Majority systems have under-represented some Majority systems have under-represented some groups (women and minorities) in electoral and groups (women and minorities) in electoral and legislative politicslegislative politics
Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems
Democratic political partiesDemocratic political parties
Majority systems produce a small number of large Majority systems produce a small number of large partiesparties
There is some incentive for small parties to exist and There is some incentive for small parties to exist and to express distinctive intereststo express distinctive interests
Large parties are catch-all but may have to listen to Large parties are catch-all but may have to listen to smaller, more ideological parties at election timesmaller, more ideological parties at election time
Bargaining over government policy takes place Bargaining over government policy takes place within the governing party (or the bureaucracy) onlywithin the governing party (or the bureaucracy) only
Parties can be decentralized to respond to local Parties can be decentralized to respond to local demandsdemands
Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems
For more evaluations of majority electoral For more evaluations of majority electoral systems, see the handout for Weekend 3 : systems, see the handout for Weekend 3 : Session 2 at pages 6-7Session 2 at pages 6-7
Assessment: strengths of Assessment: strengths of majority systemsmajority systems
Majority systems regularly produce one party Majority systems regularly produce one party majority government, or well established coalition majority government, or well established coalition governmentsgovernments
Majority systems produce an identifiable local Majority systems produce an identifiable local representatives chosen in and for each arearepresentatives chosen in and for each area
Majority systems limit the representation of minor Majority systems limit the representation of minor political parties but enable their supporters to political parties but enable their supporters to contribute to the choice of large party candidatescontribute to the choice of large party candidates
Governments and members are accountable Governments and members are accountable
through a direct electoral contestthrough a direct electoral contest
Assessment: weaknesses of Assessment: weaknesses of majority systemsmajority systems
Majority systems distort the votes/seats relationshipMajority systems distort the votes/seats relationship They permit the government to dominate They permit the government to dominate
parliamentparliament Minority interests and small parties (unless Minority interests and small parties (unless
geographically concentrated) are not representedgeographically concentrated) are not represented Small party voters appear to have a Small party voters appear to have a
disproportionate effect in some contestsdisproportionate effect in some contests Even with a second ballot or AV preferences, many Even with a second ballot or AV preferences, many
votes do not contribute to electing anyonevotes do not contribute to electing anyone The second ballot requires two sets of electionsThe second ballot requires two sets of elections AV requires a more complicated preferential ballotAV requires a more complicated preferential ballot
Majority systems in BC?Majority systems in BC?
Majority systems could be adopted in BC with Majority systems could be adopted in BC with little change to the style of parliamentary or little change to the style of parliamentary or electoral politics They are, after all, systems electoral politics They are, after all, systems designed to generate majority support and designed to generate majority support and reward the largest two parties, much like the reward the largest two parties, much like the current plurality systems. The biggest change current plurality systems. The biggest change would be to give the supporters of minor parties would be to give the supporters of minor parties the chance of having some influence over which the chance of having some influence over which of the two largest parties won government. And of the two largest parties won government. And AV has been tried in BC for the provincial general AV has been tried in BC for the provincial general elections of 1952 and 1953 elections of 1952 and 1953