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14 Glass Magazine® • www.GlassMagazine.com

Trends & analysis

Making greens while going greenPhotovoltaic industry presents significant growth opportunities for glass companies

With “green” being the new black, the

photovoltaic industry has experienced a

tremendous growth in the past few years

in the United States. PVs produce no pollution or hazar-

dous waste and do not require liquid or gaseous fuels

to be transported or combusted. They absorb sunlight

and quietly convert it into electricity without any moving

parts. Glass is used for the permanent protection of func-

tional surfaces in photovoltaic systems.

The PV industry is expected to see annual growth

between 40 percent and 50 percent during the next

several years, according to a June 2007 e-glass weekly

article. Glass manufacturers and processors will be re-

quired to serve a critical role in this developing industry,

said Timothy McKittrick, a scientist for Pilkington North

America, Toledo, during the Glass Performance Days

conference in June 2007 in Tampere, Finland, according

to the article.

“For many PV applications, glass is a preferred materi-

al, because it has good mechanical strength, is resistant

to long-term weathering and is relatively inexpensive,”

McKittrick said in the article. “The recent growth in the

PV industry presents significant growth opportunities for

various glass products.”

To stay ahead of the game, companies such as Glaston,

Finland; Salem Distribution Co., Winston-Salem, N.C.; and

Arch Aluminum & Glass, Tamarac, Fla., recently added

solar business to their list of services.

That being the smart step, “significant expansion of

production capacity over the next couple of years is re-

quired in solar related products to enable the glass indu-

stry to meet the needs of the solar business,” McKittrick

emphasizes. “The requirement includes the expansion

of downstream secondary processing capabilities.”

The primary obstacles facing the photovoltaic industry

are high costs and lack of funding. Research is underway

for the development of second generation or thin film PV

technologies to bring down the costs.

“The thin film solar market is predicted to grow six-

fold over the next five years,” McKittrick said at GPD.

“There is significant pressure to supply large volumes of

high quality TCO [transparent conductive oxides] with a

range of properties suitable to meet the differing require-

ments that thin film solar cell manufacturers demand.”

The U.S. continues to lead the world in the manufac-

ture of both next-generation thin film technologies and

the polysilicon feedstock used in most PV applications,

according to “U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review 2007”

from the Solar Energy Industries Association, Washington

D.C. “U.S. PV manufacturing grew by 74 percent this year

and U.S. PV installations grew by 45 percent this year to

150 MW-dc (grid-tied only), both among the fastest growth

rates in the world,” according to the report. “But for all the

potential, the industry continues to face a growing threat.

As the year ended, Congress had failed to pass an exten-

sion of the Investment Tax Credit, putting at risk much of

the progress that the industry has experienced in the last

two years.”

The charts on the following pages illustrate the growth

of the photovoltaic industry in the U.S. and show its

estimated growth in the next few years. The accelerated

scenario assumes the solar tax credits are extended by

Congress; the decelerated scenario assumes they are not

extended. The difference is dramatic. Irrelevant of the sce-

nario, the rapidly developing photovoltaic industry provi-

des a huge growth opportunity for the glazing community.

16 Glass Magazine® • www.GlassMagazine.com

Trends & analysis

Annual U.S. grid-tied PV by application All sectors grew in 2007

Compiled by Sahely MukerjiSour

ce: S

olar

Ene

rgy I

ndus

tries

Asso

ciatio

n an

d Pr

omet

heus

Insti

tute

Five key trends driving growth

Costs of fossil fuels1. are soaring, leading to record

energy bills for families and organizations. Fossil

fuel costs are likely to continue to rise due to

increasing demand from China and India and

limited supply of these finite resources

Solar prices2. continue to decrease through econo-

mies of scale

Concerns about climate change3. are growing and

increased action is likely with the next U.S.

president

New financing alternatives4. make it easier to go

solar without the initial upfront cost, similar to the

auto industry

States with renewable portfolio standards (RPSs)5. are

increasingly offering incentives to encourage families

and businesses to go solar as a way of attracting the

green businesses and green-collar jobs that are

powering the trillion dollar U.S. green economy.

Hawaii just became the first state to mandate solar

thermal installations in new construction.

Number ofInstallations

Annu

al M

W-d

c ca

paci

ty in

stal

led

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Year

0

30

60

90

120

150

Utility

Not known

Residential

Nonresidential

12,714

10,239

6,231

5,8134,129

X,XXX

October 2008 • Glass Magazine® 17

Projected 2009 U.S. PV sales by application Commercial and residential applications will dominate the U.S. market in the decelerated and accelerated scenarios.

Remote/off-grid*

Commercial

Decelerated forecast: 325 MW in U.S. for 2009 Accelerated forecast: 790 MW in U.S. for 2009

Utility

Utility Commercial

Remote/off-grid*

Residential Residential

*Remote/off-grid applications include remote habitation, remote industrial and consumer products.

Navigant Consulting Inc.’s PV Service’s 2009 accelerated forecast (790 MW) was used for the Investment Tax Credit market scenario, and the decelerated forecast (325 MW) for the scenario without the ITC.

» 800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

325 MW

565 MW

790 MW

Decelerated Conservative Accelerated

2009 U.S. demand forecasts Annual demand [MW]

Source: Navigant C

onsulting

Source: The Am

erican Solar Energy Society